There is a rumor making the rounds that Barcelona are interested in buying Aubameyang off Arsenal this January. A lot of folks are interested in selling and from what I’ve read the arguments are that he’s older and we could use the money to reinvest in defense. I tend to be anti-selling for this specific player because I think Arteta is showing us that he can sort out Arsenal’s defense and also that he inherited quite a mess in attack and selling our most potent attacker could set the club back a few very large steps.
First, the problem at Arsenal is simply that we don’t create enough. Fans are already aware that Arsenal’s shots per game numbers are down and also that all of the other metrics are down in terms of attack. But this is something we have been talking about here on this blog for over a year and a half and Arsenal’s poor attack was one of the major reasons why I thought Emery should have been fired this summer.
Right now, Arsenal are 8th in goals scored (30) and 13th in xG (29.97). And as you know, the leading goalscorer at Arsenal is Aubameyang with 14 goals.
And the big chances data matches the problems we see in both goals scored and xG. Arsenal are 15th in Big Chances this season (30) and even more problematic – Arsenal are tied for 18th in Big Chances created (key passes to big chances).
Its the Big Chances Created stat which has me most worried. This was a team which had several creative players at the same time. Back in 2015/16 Mesut Ozil created 28 big chances for his teammates. But Alexis Sanchez was there as well and created an additional 13 big chances for Arsenal with Giroud and Bellerin also contributing 9 each and even Cazolra (who played less than half a season) adding 7.
And since then the club has undergone a major transformation: Alexis was swapped for Mkhitaryan in a deal that was hated by many but last season he and Iwobi led Arsenal with 10 big chances created each (Kolasinac also created 10 big chances). Arsenal, for all their trouble going forward were still creating a pretty respectable 1.89 big chances per game – remember this is CREATING the chances, so a key pass that leads directly to a big chance shot.
But what’s happened is basically the perfect storm. Mkhitaryan was shipped out, Iwobi sold, Ozil (who has been on a decline but was still useful) was dropped by the manager and played in ridiculous positions when he was played, Ramsey was let go for a free, and the player Arsenal brought in to help create chances – Pepe – was involved in some imbroglio with three different managers so he also wasn’t allowed to play.
Not only all of that but Emery also played a DM in the creative role. Which was clearly not a position that suited him.
The end result is the sorry state that Arsenal are in right now, where we don’t have a reliable creator on this team. And the big chances created so far this season are an appallingly low 1.04 per game. 18th in the League.
Arsenal’s attack is as creative as Newcastle, Norwich, and Bournemouth.
All of this begs questions:
- With the team creating so few chances, can Arsenal afford to sell Aubameyang?
- If he’s scored nearly 50% of Arsenal’s goals, would selling Auba pull Arsenal into an actual relegation fight?
The logic of selling Auba to rebuild the team has some merit but strikers like him (consistently scoring 20+ goals a season) are fairly rare, which is why we paid so much to land him in the first place. What Arsenal seem to need more than defenders (which I know makes me an outlier) is a creative force who can get guys like Auba, Laca, Pepe, Martinelli, Saka, Nelson, and the midfielders some shots. Someone who can help Pepe and Auba score more by creating big chances.
Arteta knows this for sure. He just transfered to Arsenal from a team where top two creative players (de Bruyne and Mahrez) have combined to create more big chances than Arsenal have managed as a team so far (20 for de Bruyne and 10 for Mahrez).
Whether he can find the person inside the squad to do that or can get someone from outside to help is the only question.
Qq
He’s not going anywhere in January. Plus, he’s on the record as being a life-long Real Madrid fan and promised his grandfather that he’d play for them one day.
That said, I’m on the record as saying if a solid offer comes in, from whomever, and reflective of the fact that he’s one of the 10 best strikers in the world right now, we should take it regardless of the short term hit to our goal production. He’s over 30 and will want a massive contract that becomes handcuffs for a “sustainable” franchise. Wenger had it (mostly) right – you have to be extremely careful on retaining players as they approach and pass 30 years old.
The only way I’d do Auba to Barca this January is if they send Dembele back the other way. One thought though – Phillipe Countinho is a Joorabchian client… if we want creativity…
Auba wants to play for Real Madrid. When someone says they promised their grandfather that it will happen one day, and you’re 31 and onto your last contract – I sign on a free. If we can’t sell him there, he’ll wait to run out his deal. Even if he’s older, Real can still pay him a decent wage for his last contract.
I would consider taking Jovic back the other way… he’s not done anything at Real, but he’s a legit talent, maybe Spain is just not right for him.
Selling the guy who is responsible for nearly half of our goal production when we are -2 GD after 23 games is the most boneheaded suggestion I’ve seen in a long, long time.
Yeah, you MAY be flush with cash, but youre not going to be able to spend it productively for the 6 crucial months of the season run-in. It’s like cutting your nose to get material for an anatomical enhancement elsewhere. He should not be sold this month under any circumstances. He’s off in the summer anyway. Deal then.
How do you say “f*** off” in Catalan?
long time.
Yeah, you MAY be flush with cash, but youre not going to be able to spend it productively for the 6 crucial months of the season run-in. It’s like cutting your nose to get material for an anatomical enhancement elsewhere. He should not be sold this month under any circumstances. He’s off in the summer anyway. Deal then.
How do we tell Barca to eff off in Catalan?
Great post Tim.
I agree. I think selling Auba would be a big mistake. We don’t have anyone else who is a legitimate threat to score right now. Even teams that create lots of great chances are not going to thrive without someone who is good at turning the chances into goals scored. Look what happened in 15/16. Brilliant creativity doesn’t help without good finishers.
The original Ronaldo says hi
sell auba? nuts! his goals exceed his xG. barcelona need to replace a center forward so they want to sign a aubameyang? barcelona are idiots. if they were smart, they’d target lacazette. i thought we already saw this movie when barcelona bought alexis sanchez. idiots!
as for arsenal’s transfer business, they seem to be giving away players for dirt cheap so everyone says arsenal need to sell. no, they need to sell better and buy better. every player they sell, they under-sell and every player they buy they over-pay. it’s ridiculous. since szczesny, it’s been a disaster with arsenal getting true value for their players. they sold gabriel for £8 million when he was worth at least £10 and replaced him with £35 million mustafi who was only worth £17 million. they sold coquelin for £13 million and bought torreira for £26 million. they sold iwobi for £34 million and paid more than twice that for pepé. is he twice the player iwobi was? how about torreira being twice as good as coquelin? is mustafi 4 times better than gabriel? arsenal paid £17 million for perez and sold him for £4 million. alexis went for free, ramsey for free, cazorla for free, wilshere for free, monreal for £150k, and koscielny for a ham sandwich. that’s not to mention szczesny and ospina who both went to champions league teams as starters for the price of dirt. arteta retired, mertesacker retired, cech retired, and ozil will retire. what a bunch of clowns.
..sorry for the confusion at the start of the second paragraph; i think you guys get my point.
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Keep P E A Sign Santi Carzola
Please
agreed! arsenal need to create chances. i could care less who scores as long as the ball is in the back of the net. however, unai left arsenal a mess, seemingly incapable of creating chances so auba is essential.
if you look at liverpool, mane leads the team with eleven goals. no one on that team is anywhere near the top of the scoring charts; they spread their goals around. likewise, everyone is convinced that firmino is the most important player in that side and he’s scoring at about the same rate as lacazette. hopefully, folks will appreciate his overall contribution to the team more.
i also agree with your assessment of using one cdm instead of two; spot on. i made that point in the previous thread. i guessed that arteta is just attempting to shore up the defense first then he’ll progress more towards the attack. we’ll see if he persists with the double-pivot but i believe he’ll go to the single cdm soon. if not, arsenal simply may not have anyone capable of doing it anywhere as good as he’d like. that’s my theory which is why i said arsenal needed to buy a quality cdm to have a chance to play well. anyone for gundogan to arsenal in the summer? he’s got ozil, aubameyang, sokratis, and maybe mkhi to reunite with at arsenal. we’ll see.
I’ve commented before the start of the past two seasons that our lack of midfield improvements will hold us back. A couple of things I’d add on that topic.
Currently our build up play is easy to suss out and neutralise. Either Luiz or Xhaka feed Kolasinac or Ozil. We lack a Ramsey (quelle surprise).
Not only do our lack of creative options harm our creativity but we can’t press through possession sufficiently which then becomes a defending issue. It’s been noticeable particularly this season how strong midfields are important to a team’s consistency. Sheff United as an example.
Willock has plenty of potential but I’m not convinced that any of the current roster deserve to play for Arsenal next season. Makes for a hell of a rebuild job.
i’ve tried so hard to give mustafi the benefit of the doubt.
Who to get more mad at? Mustafi for that incredibly dumb and poor pass back, or Luiz, where, if you let Abraham score then at least there’s still a chance to come back from 1-0 down if we have 11 men on the field. If it’s a break at half, then foul and take the red. If it’s in the box, what’s the point?
Hey guys. Any links that anyone could share where I can see the game? Here in Ireland on business in a town called Dundalk and can’t find the game. Any help will be much appreciated.
Try your luck w/ the Web Streams
https://footybite.com/football/chelsea-vs-arsenal-live-stream-2/
Thank you mate.
Question though – Sheffield United are creating almost 2x as many chances as we are… who are the creative players on that team? Even Liverpool, their most creative player may be TAA. City is understandable, given DeBruyne, the Silvas, Mahrez, Sterling et al.
Dillonthegoat @10:10 AM
I disagree with you. Good strikers with poor service are better the poor strikers with good services. Look at the evidence. Auba had poor service last season and he won the golden boot. Van Persie won the golden boot and basically carried us the 3rd place by himself the season after Fabregas left and we had much less creativity in the team.
Dillon
Look what Auba is doing again this season with even less service then he had last year.
I’m at a loss. Clearly Auba is immensely valuable to Arsenal. But we’re not getting back into CL unless we win Europa. And we may not get into Europa. So there’s a realistic possibility that we get to this point next year with no Europe and Auba leaving on a free.
And the needs are so great everywhere else. We do have some players beyond Auba that can score, we just can’t get the ball to them in dangerous positions.
No shots in the first half in this match. Not shots on target. Shots = 0. Apparently not had that in 5 years.
I thought things couldn’t get worse, but apparently I shouldn’t think that.
it isn’t ny problem my job is to support.
what a performance tonight ..
stats will kill it.
coming from behind, with ten men, twice, at stamford bridge! gotta love that.
the boys looked comfortable after going down a man. i love that mikey stayed with three up front, although lacazette was more of a false 9. big up to mustafi after the mistake, keeping his head in the game. likewise, a competent performance from xhaka.
Quite a game. Out possessed 60-40. Outshot 19-2 and still get a 2-2 draw. The last game was a draw that felt like a loss. That is draw that feels more like a win.
Agreed. How to rate Mustafi’s performance tonight is an interesting question. I think you’re right to focus on the human element. He didn’t duck. He stayed in the game. He will always be part of the X that drew at Chelsea, playing short for over an hour. How cool is that? (But, yeah, I know.)
As for creativity, Martinelli, Saka, some of the other young ones probably deserve chances. Might be worth trying Martinelli in the high pressing 10 Emery was looking for. Saka’s hard fought experience might show more centrally as well. Pépé might still consistently come good.
Wenger used to talk about how hard it is to bed one new player in. With transfers, injuries, and managers, we’ve been hugely unsettled. There may be more internal candidates than we realize.
Mustafi got an assist!
Just before Willian’s corner where #20’s header sprang ‘Martinelli’s Dash’?
Guendouzi– in lining up players positionally in front of goal– went several yards toward the near post and physically moved Marti into the spot where his pitch-length run-for-goal began.
If Matteo doesn’t make that effort…
Two words: fan revolt. Can’t sell Auba.
Laca on current form, on the other hand… Are Atletico still interested?
Laca out, Partey in, Xhaka out, Creative MF in, solved.
We would still be at a disadvantage if we let Lacazette and Xhaka leave. Rather, we should add more talent to the team and allow the team to evolve beyond the players mentioned, before we let them go.
I think we were affected by letting Iwobi and Mhikitaryan leave, Ceballos hasn’t exactly worked and Pepe was not ready immediately, and we have suffered as a result of the personnel decisions Emery made in the summer.
if chelsea miss out on champions league this season, it’s because they’ve missed the leadership of david luiz in the back.
…and sorry, zed, but lacazette has been absolutely brilliant.
I think quite a few missed Tim’s logic. As things stand Auba is our 70% goal getter. Problem is to get the ball there. Therefore Auba is unselleable. For creativity Santi Cazorla might be a cheap fix. Or we could flog off Laca in exchange for Coutinho who is next level in creativity but unseleable by Barca for 2 seasons now. They might bite hopefully
I have faith in Arteta rectifying our present problems….he certainly did a great job yesterday. He got the players on hand risen to the occasion. He got me to continue watching the game after both our CBs let us down. I am not in doubt about what he will accomplish.
COYGs.
If we sell Auba now it completely ruin whatever chance that the team and Arteta have to salvage anything meaningful from this season. We still have a chance to make a deep run in the Europa league and perhaps the FA cup. Say all you want about feel good stories like yesterday and improved energy and focus but at some point the players have to start turning effort into results and its unlikely we can do that without Auba. If we have to sell him at least wait until next summer.
Runnings @ 5:33
Arteta has done a great job of re-energizing the squad and getting them to play with better focus but he has the same problem Wenger in his last season and Emery/Ljundberg had. He can’t go out on the pitch and create chances or score goals or play defense by himself. Even the worlds best managers need a critical mass of top players if they hope to be a threat to the teams at the top of the table and be competitive in the CL.