Leno saves but the defense is still the problem

Bernd Leno leads the League in saves with 59, 4.2 per game. This is an astonishing number of saves per game even by Arsenal standards. Arsenal have often had a keeper in the top five of total saves per season since 2015/16. But Bernd Leno was only forced to make 3.3 saves per game last season. If he keeps going at this rate, he will end the season with 160 saves. Surely, a record of some sort.

PlayerSaves
Bernd Leno59
Mathew Ryan55
Martin Dúbravka52
Tim Krul51
Aaron Ramsdale50
Ben Foster46
Tom Heaton43
Nick Pope42
David De Gea39
Dean Henderson37
Rui Patrício36
Roberto Jiménez34
Jordan Pickford34
Kasper Schmeichel33
Paulo Gazzaniga33
Ederson31
Vicente Guaita31
Hugo Lloris30
Angus Gunn30
Kepa Arrizabalaga25

Of course, not all saves are equal and in Leno’s case, he has faced the most shots from outside the 18 yard box than any keeper in the League, 30, and saved 27 of them.

PlayerSave outConceded out
Bernd Leno273
Aaron Ramsdale243
Mathew Ryan173
Nick Pope173
Ben Foster162
Tom Heaton154
David De Gea154
Dean Henderson151
Tim Krul142
Roberto Jiménez132
Jordan Pickford133
Paulo Gazzaniga132
Martin Dúbravka122
Hugo Lloris120
Angus Gunn102
Kasper Schmeichel90
Kepa Arrizabalaga95
Rui Patrício82
Ederson84
Vicente Guaita70

Leno’s saves from distance % is a respectable 90%. Note that some of the more famous keepers in the League are currently struggling with their form on distance shots. Kepa, Ederson, and de Gea have saved 64%, 67%, and 79% of their long range shots faced this season. Of course this is a small sample for them and they could quickly swing back up into the 80s with a few good games.

One more thing to note here is how many shots on target these players are facing. One of the main problems at Arsenal is a lack of proactive defending. Instead of trying to win possession back, the Arsenal players often retreat deep into the box, or simply don’t pressure players at all. The result of that lack of pressure is a high number of shots and a high number on target from outside the 18 yard box. Arsenal have allowed 102 shots from outside the 18. That’s obviously better than allowing them deeper in the box but still accounts for Leno’s extremely high saves numbers.

Shots faced inside the 18 yard box are much more normal, however, once again Arsenal are the outlier in that Leno has faced more penalties than any other keeper, 5.

PlayerSave inConceded in
Bernd Leno3118
Martin Dúbravka3920
Mathew Ryan3818
Tim Krul3721
Ben Foster3026
Tom Heaton2816
Rui Patrício2715
Aaron Ramsdale2517
Kasper Schmeichel249
David De Gea2413
Vicente Guaita2314
Nick Pope2317
Ederson239
Jordan Pickford2119
Dean Henderson209
Roberto Jiménez2013
Angus Gunn2023
Hugo Lloris188
Paulo Gazzaniga1811
Kepa Arrizabalaga1515

Those numbers above (Leno is out of order and should be 5th) still don’t paint a pretty picture about the Arsenal overall defense. Leno is facing far too many shots altogether, inside, outside, and from the penalty spot. However, when we remove his penalties faced, he’s actually saving at a top keeper rate inside the box (70%):

PlayerSave in minus pens
Bernd Leno70%
Kasper Schmeichel77%
Ederson72%
Mathew Ryan70%
Hugo Lloris69%
Dean Henderson69%
Tom Heaton67%
Martin Dúbravka66%
Tim Krul66%
Rui Patrício65%
David De Gea65%
Paulo Gazzaniga64%
Vicente Guaita64%
Roberto Jiménez63%
Aaron Ramsdale61%
Nick Pope59%
Ben Foster57%
Jordan Pickford54%
Kepa Arrizabalaga54%
Angus Gunn49%

One bad note, however, is his big chances saved rate. Typically I like to see a good keeper save about 40% of his non-penalty big chances. Leno looks very average in this regard this season, he’s only saved 29%. In fact, over his career, he’s been pretty average in this regard.

Someone asked the other day how many expected goals has Leno saved the season and how many points has he earned Arsenal. This cropped up because he’s had two really good games in the last three or so. But the reality of the season is that he’s only had four games this season where he’s saved over 0.88 xG – Watford, Wolves, Leicester, and Southampton. I make that as him saving Arsenal a total of about 3 points this season.

Arsenal are last in the League in interceptions, 19th in passes blocked, and 10th in tackles won. We are also 3rd in shots allowed, 3rd in saves (as a team, Leno is first among players), and 4th in shots on target allowed. Bernd Leno is a decent keeper. The problem is that he’s simply being overworked.

Qq

39 comments

  1. “Instead of trying to win possession back, the Arsenal players often retreat deep into the box, or simply don’t pressure players at all”.

    This.

    And it is down to coaching. Im going to say something that sounds unintuitive given how our defenders play… and that is that they’re over-coached. What I mean by that is that their reaction to danger does not seem natural. It’s as if they’re trying to remember, in the second, what Emery drilled into them. They often look like traffic cops rather than defenders. It’s painful watching Maitland Niles and Mustafi try to remember their drills. So you see a lot of pointing and gesturing, and signaling of confusion on their part. Arsenal players seem to be drilled into defending spaces, sometimes at the expense of defending attackers. And they NEVER look in control, ever. How much is a Van Dijk worth to us?

    When a guy has the ball, tackle him. If he looks set to shoot, block it with everything youve got. Noticed even during Koscielny’s time they sort of half turn their back on shots (when they deign to put in a block). Norwich’s Amadou made a game saving block on a shot hit very hard in the 94th minute. THAT is how you block a shot. Not hesitantly sticking out a leg and half turning, like Mustafi did.

    We have a bunch of decent defenders, but none that is truly elite. VVD, LaPorte, etc. (and how good a buy has Soyuncu — who we supposedly monitored — been for Leicester?).

    Im no coach but it seems to me our defenders need to remember what their fist job is… stopping attacks, sometimes before they progress to a situation of danger.

    Your point about interceptions is a great one too, Tim. Mertesacker was one of our best defensive interceptors. Perhaps having him on the coaching staff is a plus. You know who was a great reader of the game too? And was often in place to intercept and snuff out the danger before it built? 2011/2012 Mikel Arteta.

    1. It’s not coaching in the manner I think you’re suggesting – it’s motivation. There is no URGENCY to our defending. When I coach defenders I borrow the Sigi Schmidt slogan – “No get. No turn. No move. No shoot.” The first is the most critical – don’t even let the other team get the f’n ball. Be first to it. Intercept it. Be right on their back as the ball comes into feet, make them hear footsteps and expect a crunch at the same time the ball gets there.

      But that requires a mindset of controlled desperation and anger that fuels an instant energization when possession is lost. We are way too passive. Too many ball-watchers. Too many guys that mentally are saying “here we go again…” I don’t see any angry players out there. Vieira took it as a personal insult if our team didn’t have the ball. Klopp is on record saying that football is mostly an emotional game and if we could just get our players fired up, results would get immensely better.

  2. Good to see Leno is keeping the scores respectable.

    I think the club needs to buy a couple of defenders by January, a centre back and a right back for starters, who can actually defend.

    1. The midfielders are the bigger problem. If we get Guendouzi pressing and Torreira tackling we would have better cover. Getting in center backs right now would just ruin them.

      1. I always say – if you’re CB’s are making tackles, something went wrong in front of them. CB’s should be winning aerial battles, creating the illusion of a wall by sealing up spaces at the back, cleaning up errant passes, intercepting passes, making clearances. When Mustafi is making a slide tackle my first question is how did he get 1v1 with an attacker?

        If we could just be more compact – higher back line and midfielders staying in orbit of each other rather than spreading out, we would improve our possession, speed up the game (because less dribbling would be needed) and reduce the gaps that allow other teams to bypass our midfield and run at our CBs.

        1. Balls over the top take out the midfield, and engage CBs. But now teams just run straight though the midfield.

  3. Freddie watched the Norwich game twice (masochist) and noted the unopposed 40 yd runs with no need for skill from the attacker and no defense from the defender. He will address this hopefully and we will see a change against Brighton.

  4. I think they keep backing up out of fear of being dribbled past rather than too many ideas of defensive schemes put in their heads.
    Even best defenders do it when faced with great dribblers.
    VVD did it against Pepe at Anfield and I’ve seen him do it against a few other tricky players as well.
    The difference there, however, is that while VVD stands off the attacker , other Liverpool players converge on him and help out, which we also saw them do against Pepe in that game.

    Arsenal defenders back up against everyone because they are not very good at one v one defending and ,outside of AMN , don’t have the recovery speed.

    This is also the reason we concede so many penalties.
    When faced with a choice of making plays and tackles outside the box, they just keep backing up hoping the ball carrier lays it off eventually and they’ll be off the hook.

    How ironic though, the one player on the team who’s earned the right to wave his arms in disappointment is Leno but that’s not his style.
    Can you imagine a Guen or Mustafi type keeper at Arsenal?
    His arms would be permanently dislocated at the shoulders.

    1. Hey, your comments will get filtered out for profanity. I will probably approve them but it may take some time. It’s best to just avoid cursing.

    2. Understand the rage.
      I’ve passed that stage but can get my buttons pushed easily when someone expresses compassion for Mustafi.

      Scanned both Arseblog and Guardian live blogs on Sunday, excerpting all of Mustafi’s errors, misplays, poor decisions (per the bloggers). Had a couple more in mind myself– still, the tally is egregious for a PL defender.

      I count 11–
      =========
      Arseblog:
      92 Mustafi skinned again

      68 Just outside the box, foul by Chambers after Pukki slapped Mustafi’s soul into hell

      63 Leno again with a superb save, Pukki turned Mustafi inside out and got a shot away

      48 They broke down the right, played it back inside, Mustafi just stood there, the bloke curled it around him and into the far corner

      40 Xhaka back to defend well there after Mustafi got skinned on the edge of our box

      22 Pukki went through, shot deflected off Mustafi and beyond Leno

      14 Good defending Kolasinac after Mustafi had left a hole

      ========

      Guardian:
      90+2 min: Leno smothers after Pukki eludes Mustafi! Leno has kept Arsenal in this game.

      63 min: Pukki latches on to a wondrous Cantwell through ball and promptly wrings Mustafi inside out, totally embarrassing the Arsenal defender.

      62 min: Cantwell drags narrowly wide!! Aarons raids inside off the right flank – he has been brilliant in both boxes – and Cantwell has to take it first time and does. His left-foot shot has the beating of Leno but it drops the wrong side of the Arsenal goalkeeper’s left post. Mustafi, David Luiz and co – again – were all over the shop.

      59 min: Bernd Leno with a humongous save!! Arsenal switch off – Mustafi and David Luiz go missing, again…

      ========

      Hoping Freddie saw enough to avoid making that mistake again.

  5. So… Leno is a leading keeper this season, but this has earned us only 3 points? Sounds horrible. Until I realize that we have only 19 points…

    1. Leading in the saves department but like I said most of those saves are outside the box. Very low percentage shots

  6. i’ve been away for a while so i have to catch up. fyi, i only watched the first half of the norwich game (fell asleep at halftime).

    jack, i teach, essentially, the same “no get, no turn, no move, no shoot” concept and it is rock-solid. however, i teach it to strikers and midfielders too in functional sessions during pre-season. i also use 1v1, 1v2, 2v2, 3v2, etc. every 4-5 weeks to ensure players don’t forget these principles. sustaining that training is essential, the players love it, and you see them implement it into their game, which results in improved performances.

    likewise, the first three principles of defense that dillon talks about (pressure, cover, balance) are also accurate and effective. the cover defender being 10-15 yards away is too far for my liking. it’s like going from a 1v1 to another 1v1 situation for the attacker. i like to create a 1v2 for the attacker to try and negotiate. however, that’s just me and i don’t want to get too much in the weeds about differences; the principles dillon suggests are very sound.

    sticking with the theme, it’s important to understand the role of strikers and midfielders in defending as a team. there has to be a cohesive strategy implemented in order for it to be effective. if not, tremendous pressure is placed on the defenders and goal keeper. there are two problems i’ve spoken of in recent months.

    first, it seems as if emery had no defensive requirements of his strikers and only some for the midfielders. because they’re not required to do anything, they don’t and arsenal concede a ton of shots.

    second, when david luiz is in the team, he drops off for what seems to be no good reason. this makes things slightly easier for him but much more difficult for the team as the midfielders have a ton more space to cover.

    being a dortmund fan, i have a ton of experience watching jurgen klopp’s team defend. his approach includes duties for the strikers and midfielders while the back line compress the field. it makes things extremely difficult for an opponent to play through. when they do it right, they’re incredibly tough to score against.

    essentially, it works like this: the wide strikers channel everything to the middle where they have cover (3 center mids and two strikers clogging the middle of the park and making the pitch very narrow). the defenders play with a disciplined high line, making the field shorter. this makes a standard football pitch only about 20 x 20 meters in size and every liverpool outfield player is in that grid, which makes the geggen press very effective; anyone who get’s the ball is under tremendous pressure and will struggle to make an effective pass. it’s what i do and when the players execute it, good luck keeping the ball, let alone getting a shot or, even tougher, a goal. with that, i coach a bunch of 18-year olds that know everything. last year, that group bought into it and we won a ton. this year, we finished 3rd.

    i’ve talked too long. bottom line, the best defenses have a learned direction, player awareness, and execution from all eleven players.

    1. the “no get” is not empirical. there are certain situations where it does apply. likewise, there are times you want certain players to have the ball and you set traps as a team to develop that. what you don’t want is the dangerous, penetrative passes that can hurt your team…or you want to make those passes as difficult as possible to make, hopefully encouraging the attempt.

      someone has to get the ball but you want to control who, where and when. to deny a certain person is when the “no get” applies. like i said, that’s strategy from the coach. however, defenders applying pressure and patience you mentioned is very true.

    2. The “no get” is completely legitimate – how often do we see players let an opposition player receive the ball to feet when they’re only mere steps away? Don’t let them get the ball – slide in, block the pass, be there before the ball gets there. Create chaos. Frustrate the other team.

      If you don’t believe in “no get” as the first line of defending then you can’t believe in a high pressing, gegenpressing style of defense. Liverpool lives off of swarming areas of the pitch and picking off passes and loose first touches. How many actual tackles do Liverpool’s forwards make? Yet they win the ball back with regularity in the opposition half.

    1. yep. two reasons. first, he was injured for a lot of the season so there’s not a lot of data on him this season; lloris and gazzinga from tottenham have both done more work than either adrian or allison. second, liverpool don’t allow many shots because they have a sound defensive strategy; see my very long post above.

  7. Great post Tim.

    Leno is certainly a capable GK and it felt like he saved us a point in this last game with some good second half saves.

    Josh.

    The defensive principles you describe seem like basic ideas that every footballer who hoped to be a professional should have learned starting around early teen age years. If they have not learned those things by now then it seems unlikely that a manager at this level is going to be able to teach them now. Our defensive players have had their youth training come from many different organizations and it seems unlikely they all did a poor job of teaching fundamentals. Logically it seems like there has to be some other reason we consistently struggle. No?

    1. bill, these principles, as dillon mentioned, are learned when kids are as young as 7-years old, not teenagers. most managers are busy working strategy as they believe their “professional players” already know this stuff. however, one thing i’ve learned in life is that whenever you should be the one teaching, you always need to go back and be taught again or re-trained; especially in aviation. it’s called sustainment training and i believe it should be done in every profession. it’s not that you don’t know it but to make sure you don’t forget it.

      i mentioned higher up that i do these exercises once every month or so to reinforce these fundamental tactics that players should be able to take for granted. that’s something i started doing only a couple of years ago but it’s helped tremendously.

    2. You make the same argument over and over. It’s just plain wrong. Coaches matter. If they didn’t matter, they wouldn’t exist. You can see teams that are more organized, teams in which players are committed, switched on, making tackles, pressing in different ways, pressing at different times. Man City yesterday were incredible both for the commitment from the players and from the organization. Burnley too though. I felt like Burnley didn’t shirk any responsibilities.

      And as for coaching basics, yes! Guardiola spends time with his players coaching them on things that they didn’t pick up when they were younger. All the good coaches do. You think Trent Alexander Arnold was just a complete player when he was 14?

      In this Arsenal squad it’s clear that players like Guendouzi and Xhaka were allowed to slide on their defensive duties because they were so talented in other areas of the pitch. Those players need to be re-educated in a sense, they need to have their playing styles changed. That takes coaching. It boggles the mind that you think players are complete at age 14.

      I don’t understand why you’re so insistent that coaching doesn’t matter. Do you honestly believe that the only way to make a good team is to buy all new players?

  8. Realistically a manager at the PL level does not have time to drill individual player on basic skills they should have learned at the U18 level. He has the whole team and the tactical schemes to deal with. The manager has a whole coaching staff who should be working before or after training sessions with individual players who are struggling with fundamentals

  9. Will somebody tell dip shite Paul Scholes to lay off my boy Freddy about wearing a suit . Did you say that to Guadiola, Mourinho, Sanchez, Klopp or Lampard. No you didn’t you lame fraudulent clown of a pundit.

  10. Thanks for your response Josh. The manager is the captain of the ship but I thought most professional team at this have position specific coaches who should be working with players in an individual basis to reenforce basic fundamentals and strategic principles.

    Freddie mentioned in his interview that he saw an opposition player running for many yards with the ball and no one someone stopped him. However that is exactly what’s been happening all season and Freddie and everyone on the coaching staff has seen the same thing many times during the games and on film. If the problem is purely coaching then why haven’t any of the coaches or Freddie himself done anything to fix the problem? I can’t believe Emery was happy about opposition players running free in our midfield but it must be remarkably frustrating that no one could fix it.

    1. That’s why we need better defenders whose instincts when under pressure are not to retreat but to go forward and pressure the attacker. A Nigel de Jong type rather than a Xhaka type for starters. I only bring up Nigel as an example of the defensive mind set we need in our players. I am not, I repeat not advocating that we bring in players who will maim the opposition.

  11. The idea that the problem for the team is poor instructions and the players aren’t being told what to do or the players not understanding Emery and the problem can easily be fixed by better coaching makes very little sense to me. We have a whole room full of coaches and if there was a simple solution then I believe someone would have found a way to fix the problem before now. I believe the players know what they should be doing but they are just not executing. I could believe it if someone said the the players just lost the mental edge and they won’t get it back playing for this manager but that is at least partly the players fault. Hopefully a new manager might find a way to reenergize the group and light a new fire under their feet and get them to execute.

  12. A very well thought, researched and from experience point of view comment. The Arsenal coaching staff should seriously consider seeking your consultancy.

  13. I don’t think any of us really understands why our defense has been so poor the last 2 1/2 years. We conceded 51 in 17/18 under Arsene and 51last season and right now we are on course to concede 51.57 goals this season. That’s mid table defensive performance at best. I do know there is a whole room full of coaching resources if players are struggling to figure out where to position themselves or when to close down an opponent or how to execute basic fundamentals. Players Luiz, Sokratis, Mustafi, Xhaka, Kolasinac, Torriera and even Guendouzi have been training at high level football teams and facilities for many years and if they are still making the same mistakes because they can’t avoid following their instincts then there is probably not a lot that coaches or managers can do.

  14. Mings, Ndidi and Haaland

    Rodgers, NES, Poch, Allegri, Nagelsmann, Bielsa

    The problem with the player’s and the coaching staff, is they don’t have any soul. No passion. No fire. Everyone is too nice and polite. This comes from those in charge. We can’t have anyone swearing, drinking, smoking, womanising or being violent. We’re not human beings. Just souless shells of human being’s who enjoy all the luxuries money can buy. Far too comfortable from top to bottom. Don’t know how to win dirty. Tackling could mean hurting themselves or another player. So they’re probably coached not to tackle. Because it’s just all too nice. Sacking Emery wasn’t ruthless. It was the club pandering to common sense. It was monitoring social media for what to do next. It certainly didn’t come from any of the dim wit management at Arsenal

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