Arsenal host 19th place Southampton on Saturday. Arsenal are in turmoil but according to the stats, Southampton are the perfect club at the perfect time to get the ship back upright and sailing.
There is a stat making the rounds this morning that Arsenal haven’t lost at home to Southampton in 20 League matches. It’s true but masks two home defeats in the League Cup to the Saints. And also, it’s kind of irrelevant what Arsenal did in the old Division One in 1990. Football is slow to change, just not that slow.
The data points that I find most important are from this season and by almost all accounts Arsenal should totally roll over Southampton. Looking just at Southampton’s last three matches:
- they have allowed 25 shots per game
- they have created just 4.3 per game
- of the 75 shots conceded, 16 were Big Chances
- they have created just two big chances in the last three games
- the 75 shots conceded were very evenly distributed: 26, 25, 24
- and 53/75 of the shots they have conceded were taken inside the 18 yard box
- 23 of those were in prime areas
- they have created an xG of just 1.44
- they have conceded an xG of 11.56
Now, you’re going to say that these three matches were against Leicester (conceded 9 goals), Man City (conceded just 2 goals but were utterly dominated), and Everton and you’re going to be right.
The Leicester match is an outlier in terms of goals scored (9) and big chances conceded (8). Looking at the stats, how often Leicester got shots in the 18 and how many were big chances, it looks like Southampton just gave up in that match. I don’t know any of the players personally so maybe I have that wrong, but I have been on a team when several players just give up and it looks just like that.
In the second game, Man City play football from another planet and the stats in that match are incredible. Southampton were probably still reeling from the Leicester game and also, Man City are incredible on their day.
But the Everton match should be at least something that Arsenal should look to emulate. Everton kept Southampton to just 4 shots, 1 big chance. And while it was an ugly passing game, Everton only completed 271 passes and Southampton 244, the Blues made 87 passes in the Southampton final third, compared to 36 for the Saints, effectively penning the Southampton side into their own half.
Not only that but Everton out-tackled and out-intercepted Southampton, tackling higher up the pitch, pressing them in possession, and creating chances off that pressure: Everton created 2 shots off errors in possession.
In his pre-match presser Hasenhüttl even gave away the Saints’ game-plan against Arsenal:
“I want a good trigger after losing the ball, and good moments after losing the ball to fight back and win it back immediately. This is something we have been working on with the players here, as we forgot a little bit about this behaviour which made us strong. To pick up this behaviour again has been the main work we had to do in the last two weeks.”
The Saints boss also mentioned getting off to a quick start, having belief, and going into the game feeling like they can do something. And that he’s got all of his options available so he can pick the perfect shape to fit the way that they want to play.
I read this as a high press to start the match, Arsenal will need to move the ball quickly and get out of trouble with deft passing and movement. Hopefully, Emery starts some faster players and we can lure them into that high press and spring Pepe or Auba with a ball over the top.
However, if we do make a mistake early, they will be ready to pounce. And if that happens, we could be in for a long day.
I can’t get excited about Arsenal whilst Emery is in charge. If they manage to win against the Saints ( which seriously, is no guarantee anymore), then they will drop points to some other poor side. It’s depressing looking at the table. Lampard, who I had doubts over, has already got Chelsea playing well. Why do the Arsenal board persist with Coaches when things clearly aren’t going well. I believe we are already out of the top four race. It’s not even Christmas.
Nice preview Tim and time to set our sights on 4 easy wins (LOL).
What’s your take on why our passing game has gone to pieces? Wengerball was all about quick accurate passing and we used to be admired by the neutral as a joy to watch. Seems like an age ago now.
Great question!
I think teams press Arsenal now. I think teams press in general more but especially because Arsenal don’t really have someone who can break pressure in midfield or wide. Teams are just not afraid of us like they used to be.
It also doesn’t help that guys like Xhaka are so incredibly slow and Guendo is so incredibly raw.
It’s why I treasure the memory of Cazorla, hands down my favorite player of the last 10 years or so.
He could break presses and turn them into Swiss Cheese
Then this means our recruitment process has been totally naive, because we still haven’t replaced Cazorla’s genius, nor Coquelin’s tenaciousness.
+1
Here’s a hypothetical about our midfield for what it’s worth. If Wenger had stayed on I believe his midfield partnership would have been Xhaka, Torreira and Ramsey. No way he would have let Ramsey go, certainly without replacing him. Guen would have been understudy learning the job in lower key games. Pepe wouldn’t have been purchased as he doesn’t solve our pressing problems. Oh and Ozil would play every game he was fit.
Wenger knew how to get the best out of his players (even Xhaka) which leads me to conclude either Emery can’t (which we all believe to be true) and/or we don’t have the personnel to play Emery’s system (which is to bypass midfield entirely). The biggest challenge for the club is marrying the coach and recruitment to a style of play. Edu’s job. But Edu hasn’t been here long enough to show demonstrable results, plus if we bin Emery off the process starts again.
As an aside I saw some stats earlier:
Arsenal 2016/17 league average
Home points per game 2.37
Home win 74%
Goals scored per game 2.05
Goals conceded per game 0.84
Arsenal 2017/18 league average
Points per game 2.47
% win 79%
Goals scored per game 2.84
Goals conceded per game 1.05
Fortress Emirates RIP.
This is an example where the stats you mentioned certainly do match the eye ball test. From what I have seen Southampton has been really poor this season. It’s still relatively early in the season but this game definitely feels like a true must win scenario and a good performance and an easy win would be nice
Fu#k me , the amount of fawning over Mourinho from everyone in the media and commentators is already sickening.
That’s how it always starts. This is just Act I of V.
How desperate is Jose to succeed this time around?
The two knee slide goal celebration against West Ham?
GTFO!
Auba has been brilliant but we need to have a second goal scoring threat in our line up. Lacazette is second best on our squad at scoring and I hope he gets a goal or may be even a couple
Fabregas was the last Arsenal player professional enough to stand on a ball preventing a quick restart after a foul.
Unsolved Mysteries series on Discovery should feature an episode on Emery keeping his Arsenal job.
This is like watching a relegation 6 pointer.
Southampton currently have 10 shots to our 3 in the first half. We are playing according to our current form and giving them a life line.
HT: Dire. I think we had one shot on goal (i.e., the goal), we’re creating almost nothing, and, as usual, we’re helping out a team that’s having a tough time of late. We’re such a charitable side. Southampton should feel good about their chances in the second half if we keep playing like this!
And there it is! Southampton you are most welcome. Trust Arsenal for the morale boost. Oh, and the ref. No ref in this league would have called that a penalty if it was an Arsenal player who went to ground that easily. Which isn’t to say we don’t suck. We do. We suck badly, and I’d be surprised if this sack of crap team even rescued a point now.
Have faith…
There’s still 4 minutes left as I write. Enough time for Soton go 3-1!!
FT: Southampton deserved to win that game, but we rescue a point after all, a point that will, I’m sure, convince Raul that we are on the up and up. This is on him and Edu now. It’s ridiculous that Emery still has a job.
I have been a fan since 2000 when I was just a small kid in awe of Bergkamp and Henry’s magic. I have never been so embarassed by the team I fell in love with.
This team is shocking, like a random picked guys from the street to perform on the highest level, with no instruction what to do whatsoever. Every opponent looks like a title pretender.
It is far beyond ridiculous now.
Chin up gooners. Imagine how Steve Kerr ( 3-14) is feeling.
Although, in mitigation, he has lost 3 hall of famers, one for good, two to long term injuries.
How am I doing, trying to keep things in perspective? 🙂
I couldn’t find the game among my cable offerings. Just as well, huh?
Kerr is feeling just fine with 5 mil/yr and 3/5 NBA championships.
Not a valid comparison. Try Nico Kovac.
I was unfortunately only able to watch the last 12 minutes of our match at home with Southampton.
It looked to like we were playing a Barcelona team at their peak except for the fact that Barcelona would scored on those 2 pull back shots and that Djenepo chance and finished us off 4-2.
I’m not saying we were dreadful today but we did look like s**t from those 12 minutes that my TV forced me to watch with by holding a gun to my head.
I am a never Mourinho.
The media are going orgiastic over the born again Mourinho now that he’s back.
The score to date is Emery 0-0-1, Mourinho 1-0-0. I will be counting Unai and so should the Arsenal ‘brain’ trust.
Any coach who gets 1 point or 3 points from matches against Arsenal should be considered in our coaching search to replace Emery. All that is except Mourinho.
Should have lost to Southampton. Only very very wasteful finishes and wayward final third passes prevented us from being decimated and slain at home by the Saints. We can’t seem to be able to bring the ball out from our halves and ferry the ball to our attackers. The riches of our attacking lineup and substitutes is certainly embarrassing considering how horrid we had been at carving out even half chances that the 19th team in the league seems to be able to conjure. Our defence, with Sokratis seemingly hell bent on taking on some Comedian role is slapstick at best, our midfield seems to be always be slipping, being pulled down, tackled, harried, hurried and might as well be buried. Even when Leno finally saves a penalty, the rebound had to fall straight back to the taker for an easy tap in. We are doomed with this Unai regime.
A quote from SlowMobius7 on Reddit, r/soccer:
“He won’t last till “ebening”.
Our hope and dream.
Franky Lamps is doing to Pep what SAF used to do to Wenger .
Win the ball in dangerous areas and hit him on a counter.
Watching this now, I can say that Chelsea are f&$king good. They may just earn a draw though MC are all over them.
News flash:
Kevin De Bruyne is a very, very good footballer.
Which Belgian midfielder would you rather have at Arsenal (not that either would make a difference right now): KDB or EH?
They have allowed 25 shots per game (12 vs Arsenal)
they have created just 4.3 per game (21 vs Arsenal)
they have created an xG of just 1.44 (2.6 vs Arsenal)
they have conceded an xG of 11.56 (1.61 vs Arsenal)
Stupidly I had hoped that the nationalism break would be an opportunity for Emery, breathing space to take some perspective on his dysfunctional tactics and a soft reset for the players and their confidence.
Of course all the problems are still there, a badly struggling Southampton should have won this.
KDB just edges it for me.
A complete footballer if I ever saw one.
Watching him and Gundogan play is special
I miss the international breaks where we’d only have to worry about what new bone or joint van Persie would injure – unwelcome breaks. Now I want them to go on and never end.
You know your sh**t is weak when the next the bottom team coach says this about your team and he is correct:
https://twitter.com/ZR_1G7/status/1198294014526722054
https://www.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/e0mi16/thoughts/
Blame the negativity and the calls for Emery out on AFTV.
Now you have Arseblog and Gunnerblog and the Arsenal supporters joining in the call for Emery out.
Next will come the plane flying overhead with the banner calling for Emery out.
I couldn’t even bring myself to watch. I figured a draw at home to the second worst team in the league was about the best we’d manage and didn’t want to start my Saturday off angry and frustrated. Something is very, very wrong with this club.
I wouldn’t want Mourinho here and I think Pochettino is an excellent coach who did as good a job as anyone could have with Spurs refusing to spend. But I can respect Levy not accepting the poor form they’ve been in all year and being willing to turn the page, even if it meant sacking a popular manager and replacing him with a troll. I can’t respect Raul and co. if they think we’re on the right path and the fan discontent is just noise.
The only reason I was able to watch the last 20 minutes of today’s shite is because I stopped in to my local on the way home after errands and because they know me well enough there, immediately changed to the game on the screen in from of my favorite seats.
Such a contrast from the days when I would call ahead to make sure the bloody match was on.