Arsenal’s Surrender Index

37 comments

1. I will say that Wenger rightly took a lot of crap for our gung ho approach when winning. Sometimes we didn’t need to be so balls out, and we paid for it.

   There is a balance to be had, of course.

   1. A Frenchmen faced with a Surrender Index only has two choices. Sometimes, the Overcompensation Index kicks in.

      1. *Boo this man gif*

   2. I remember when we were 1-1 away to bayern and I was thinking ok that’s a great result, take off ozil and put elneny in there to get the away draw. We lost 5-1.

2. Emeryball is a Cheap Trick

   1. Expecting to be in the Lap of Luxury is bit much for us Arsenal fans… 😉

3. Funny thing is that Arsenal look like they’re attacking. But look closely and they’re passing the ball sideways and backwards a lot. Plus, much as Auba is sensational, he is not great at keeping the ball, or building play. What he is very, very lethal in front of goal, although it must be said that his link play is better than when he first arrived. He works harder and is taking more responsibility of late, but that is not naturally his game. That’s not a knock. We are very lucky to have a striker of his calibre.

   So (it seems to me), a lot of our play is in the middle and at the back. Our key midfielder, Xhaka, is himself very conservative. He has very good pass stats, but I wonder how many of them are progressive. Perhaps that why Emery likes him… for the control he is supposed to bring. When Willock and Ceballos play, we look a more adventurous side. Guendouzi is already our best midfielder, and a natural progressor of the ball. Where he needs to get better chance creation, in which his numbers are low.

   We also need magic. Runners and ferryers are great, but we also need magic. Pepe has a bit of trickery, but he’s still finding his feet. And that’s about it. I won’t mention the guy who’s rumoured to be leaving in January. He is, btw, the player who has created the most chances in the Emery era… 46. Even though perpetually “rested.”

   1. I fuckin saw that we might sell Laca as well. That would really get on me pecs

      1. Yeah, that would be an issue with hold-up and possession. I wonder how much of this is linked to the loss of Giroud and less Ozil. Giroud apparently wants out of Chelsea due to lack of playing time there. I wouldn’t mind him back, as I think he’d still be a useful alternative to what we have.

         1. I suppose I could wait until I see who they bring in as a replacement but the way this club acts now is just so classless: letting “slip” that Emery benches Ozil because he doesn’t train hard enough is yet another in a recent line of disgusting ways that the “Brian Trust” are destroying what this club used to stand for.

            1. Unai Emery has been under immense pressure from many on the outside and has been subjected to RELENTLESS criticisms and insults from some of the (very classy) fans because of the perception that he has some personal non-football related beef with Ozil. That perception casts Emery as some unprofessional small man who doesn’t know how to operate with bigger responsibilities.

               I would argue that it would have been equally disgusting had the club not protected the coach from the “unfair” criticisms by coming out to clear the air on what they think is the “true” situation of things.

            2. More so, there really is nothing outrageously new or criminally unprofessional about the stance Emery has taken with Ozil. Nor is the club’s handling of the situation unjust. It is what it is.

               Upon being appointed manager at Barca, Guardiola (then a rookie manager) said that Ronaldinho and Samuel Eto’o were not part of his plans for the coming season. Ronaldinho’s attitude wasn’t aligning well with Guardiola’s vision and Guardiola would not accommodate that in his team regardless of the fact Ronaldinho (supremely talented he was) was already a legend and one of the all-time football greats.
               Ronaldinho joined Milan. The fate of Eto’o took much of the summer to unravel, with the Cameroonian linked with several clubs, but Guardiola finally declared that he would stay after his “dedication in training” and participation in the pre-season.

               There are certain key differences though.
               1. Pep achieved success with that team almost instantaneously and went on to create the best footballing side of the decade.
               2. He wasn’t afraid to bin Ronaldinho or Ibra -both of whom were at the top of their game at the time- because he had the future of the club in Lionel Messi who had come through from the academy.

               Emery has Willock (the future) coming through from the academy. He is no Messi. But, he is really putting in the work and showing hunger. I suspect if we rather give him the time and priority that he deserves, it just might work out really good. And the sooner Emery starts to win games consistently the less often he’d be criticized for his decisions/methods (good or bad).

4. Ha! I saw the post title and though, ‘he’s satirising Boris Johnson’s pathetic jingoistic language’, because we have, in the maelstrom of Brexit, a bill passed by Parliament which is designed to stop us crashing out without a deal. It was written and led by a Labour MP called Hilary Benn – hence it’s more harmless nickname, ‘the Benn bill’. Johnson, in his ‘infinite’ ‘wisdom’ has chosen to nickname it ‘the surrender bill’ – a name which has gained the predictable right-wing traction. He is such a wise man, that Boris…..

   1. why is “crash” okay for remainers to use but “surrender” is jingoistic for leavers.

      .

5. Another great post Tim

   Statorrhea is defined as the exponential growth in the number of stats that people will use to analyze football and it is not surprising given what we are seeing in other sports. The problem is that many of the conclusions which are drawn from the stats in European are much more often misleading in European football compared to American baseball or American football. You mentioned the perfect example in the post regarding the high flying statistical season Arsenal put together in the 15/16. Despite what the statistical analysis of that season tells us we only scored 65 goals in 15/16 which I think was the lowest number of goals scored by an Arsenal team in this century and we only collected 71 points in a season which arguably had the weakest top of the table in this century. Leicester was able to take advantage of the down year for the rest of the big teams and collect 81 points but we were not good enough to take advantage and could only collect 71.. The statistics would suggest we played fantastic football in 15/16 but the reality was the opposite.

   Another stat that is often misleading is chances created. Lucas Perez was the second leading chance creator in La Liga in the 17/18 season when he was on loan to Deportivo which would suggest he is a really good creative player. However the reality is he is journeyman who spent many years playing in Russia because he was not good enough to play regularly in Spain and now he can’t get regular minutes are Arsenal West Ham or Alves

   1. No, the statistics show that Arsenal created a ton of chances. The stats also show that Arsenal finished just under 10% of those chances and left a lot of big chances still on the table.

      I think you’re going to find that your statsdenaialism isn’t going to win over any converts here. You aren’t arguing with the actual stats, you don’t know how they are collected, you don’t know the relevance of the stats, you don’t seem to have a very strong math or analytical background. And the reason I can say that is that you seem to know nothing about the stats and yet you create this tautological universe in which you think your “logic” disproves their viability because as you can point to occasionally the data doesn’t match up perfectly to reality.

      Saying that Arsenal finished 2nd in 2015/16 and that they scored just 65 goals (which you then go on to incorrectly say is the lowest in the century – in 2006/07 we scored 63 and going back “a century” in 1923/24 and 1992/93 we scored 40) doesn’t disprove the validity of big chances, xG or anything. In any model there are always outliers. Sometimes we use these outliers to correct the model. In fact, a good model is constantly tested and changed when presented with new data that challenges it.

      You seem to have latched onto “chances created” as your current bogeyman. The thing about what you’re saying is that expected goals was actually designed in order to clarify that not all chances created are equal! That’s what stats fucking do! They prove your exact point!

      However, your example of Lucas Perez is actually wrong. It doesn’t disprove the stats AT ALL.

      He created 83 chances that season, 2nd to Messi’s 89.
      He also created 13 Big Chances that season, 5th in the league, Messi created 30 big chances.

      Ok, so, let’s look at why these two stats are important and what they show us.

      Lucas’ expected assists that season was 9.90, Messi’s was 15.10. Even though Messi created just 6 more chances than Lucas, Messi created 17 more big chances than Lucas, leading to a much higher expected assists return for Messi. I don’t think these stats show that Lucas is some outstanding creative player, but rather just that he was very often the only creative player on his team, which is borne out when you look at Depor’s other top players for key passes, who had essentially half of the key passes Lucas had.

      Interestingly, Lucas only recorded 6 assists that season and Messi 12. This is because assists are very difficult to attain.

      I think you need to take a slightly more positive approach to stats, try to understand them, I mean to really get to know how they are collected and what the statistical significance is, then you can argue not that “stats are dumb” which you seem to be doing now and instead that “xA is flawed because it counts (insert argument) and here is my evidence to support that argument.”

6. I think part of the problem is I suspect the way some of those stats are recorded is rather nebulous. Who decides which pass is a key pass and which pass represents a chance created? For example Claude indicated that Mesut Ozil is the leading chance creator during the Emery era but his assist totals have completely fallen off a cliff. I think Mesut has a total of only 3 assists in our league games since he signed his huge new contract 1 1/2 seasons ago. He is playing with excellent finishers and the teams total number of goals has not gone down and yet the number of goals that Ozil is directly involved in has plummeted. That dichotomy makes absolutely no sense. If he is really creating good chances then there is no possible way his assist totals should have gone down the way they have. The only possible explanations are the guys who decide what is a “chance created“ are making bad decision or is the passes that are being recorded as a chance created are low percentage chances that even top quality strikers are not able to convert.

   1. “The only possible explanations are the guys who decide what is a “chance created“ are making bad decision or is the passes that are being recorded as a chance created are low percentage chances that even top quality strikers are not able to convert.”
      _______________________

      😳

      Bill,

      Awfully sorry that stats don’t work in a way that’s convenient for you.

      They are, in fact, stubborn things.

   2. But the only way that’s a slight on Ozil’s quality is if:

      1) The stats guys are only misrecording for Ozil, or
      2) Ozil is the only one making these kind of passes for some reason while the other players are making “true” chances that lead to goals.

      1. It’ s a ridiculous argument.

         “The stats don’t align with my prejudices, so they must be measuring things wrong”.

7. I believe European football is not a game that allows for accurate statistical analysis because the rules and how they are interpreted are by necessity much more nebulous then most other sports such as American baseball. Almost every single call made by the referee in a football match are to some degree a matter of individual judgement. Its almost like every call the ref has to make can potentially be as nebulous as calling pass interference in American football. Even with ultra slow motion multi angle replays there is still controversy about nearly every penalty and a lot of fouls. A significant percentage of penalties looks like a dive from at least 1 angle.

   The same problem exists with whomever decides which pass might be a key pass or which pass is a “chance created”. One persons key pass or chance created may well be interpreted differently by the next observer. Interpreting the stats can also be misleading. The passing stats would suggest a player like Mo Elneny was a brilliant midfielder or the chance created stats would tell you Lucas Perez was the second best creator in all of Spanish football in 17/18 however, the reality that we all know is clearly the opposite. Tackling stats can mislead because of good defenders tend to stay on their feet when they defend and a tackle can be a last desperate attempt from a player who has done a poor job of defending.

   1. Hi Bill,
      I have sympathy with what you’re saying about using stats to evaluate football (soccer).

      I think taking individual stats to illustrate something is iffy. As you say, Elneny had successful passes. That’s why I think a lot of what I get from Tim and others is where they combine stats and observation. Elneny passed sideways and safe well. He didn’t progress the ball, so I’d assume if you looked at his stats for pass completion *and* his stats for Key Passes and Assists as well his average field position/ where he made his passes, that would start giving a more rounded picture of him as a player (and how he was utilised in the team).
      So I guess I’m not convinced by seeing single stats (even Goals!) and only when they’re combined/ shown over time, given *context* in some way.

      In terms of consistency of recording stats, I think companies like Opta etc try very hard to be consistent – its actually their business model so something they need to protect. As a for instance I was in their office a few years ago (we were going to buy some of their services) and they had two people watching a match on separate screens and recording the data. When they didn’t record the same stat then that would be looked at again.
      I’d assume at least the same thing is happening if not more sophisticated now.

      I do agree that Refs have to make judgement calls in pretty much every call they make. But again, any of their stats would need context.

      Anyway, just a thought.

   2. You, sir, have never watched a baseball game.

      1. Indeed I haven’t!
         But I was trying to back up the several points being made about need for context rather than Bill’s “yah, boo stats are wrong cos I disagree”

         Anyhoo… You’ve said it better in a reply above!

         😉

8. Claude

   We have the final results from the last couple of years and the chance created stat you mentioned in the comment at 9:24AM did not predict what actually happened. The number of goals Ozil has been involved with has plummeted and the table Tim had in his post a few days clearly showed that the team is not more likely to score goals when Ozil is on the pitch. Therefore its logical to believe that for some reason that particular chance created stat is misleading and not accurately predicting what actually happens. There can be no other reasonable conclusion.

   1. Yes, Bill but you choose to discount a stat that is very contemporary… that Mesut Ozil, of all people, is the leading chance creator in Emery’s short reign. Emery’s short CURRENT tenure. Despite being serially rested. Your response was that they can’t be measuring it right!

9. Per Bill and Usmanov, came across this, on Ozil and Arsenal. Don’t agree with all of it, but I think it’s generally on the money. Yes, the author’s nom de plume is Shotta, which makes him sound like a bandmate of Ini Kamoze. Don’t be bourgeois about it. Don’t hold that against him 🙂

   https://uncensoredarsenal.com/index.php/the-shameless-defamation-of-mesut-ozil/

10. Tim’s impressive writing skills may be disguises the fact that this is still a very stats based forum so it seems odd to keep taking swings at statistics. Sure they may never tell the “whole story” but they pretty much paint a picture.

11. Usmanov

    Oh please. The club isn’t being classy or protecting Emery. As even you concede, Emery doesn’t need protecting. It is his right to drop Ozil, and Ramsey before. He just needs to say that’s my decision because they don’t fit in my plans and that’s that. Then live by the performances and results.

    Emery threw Ramsey under the bus about his attitude AFTER he overplayed him late in the season. For which, too, he blamed Ramsey for wanting to play. With Ozil he keeps saying he’s a captain, he’s important for us, and then drops him from the squad entirely, even when he plays well, plays Groinis Suarez ahead of him, and pointedly subs him in the final where Emery’s Arsenal continued scr#wing the pooch with the run at the end. Before that final he already had his excuses in. Along with Ramsey, he was passive aggressive in blaming Miki (but not Uefa), and also said Wenger had lost his competitive spirit. These are all ‘classy’ things that Emery did last season, and continues similarly this. Even his response to the Ozil carjacking incident was less than supportive, and he looked more annoyed than anything. I’d find it easier to respect him if he would just stand by his convictions and live with the fact that he might come across as an A hole. Instead of this wishy washy attempt to appear (not be) classy.

    As for the club. We reneged on an agreed deal with our longest serving senior player, and initially tried to give him a send off with a curt message. Only for the fans to protest, after which they put his photo in their twitter header and had a full feature on their site on him. We tried to destroy Ozil’s career and reputation (and have been doing it) simply for signing a deal with us. That’s like his only fault in all this. Staying! We made it public that our captain had refused to travel (but not why) in an attempt to destroy his reputation. We even leaked some ‘dirt’ on Sven when he left us. You want me to believe this is only the club protecting their manager from ‘non classy fans’? No, this is simply the club throwing a player they no longer want under the bus. It’s horrible, and frankly I have little to no respect for any of them. Even Per, who I only recently learned said Ozil was wrong about rac!sm in the German federation.

12. Thanks for this Tim.

    Perhaps I’m reading too much into Willock’s comments after the Standard Liege match but they seem to fly in the face of both the stats and the eye test.

    Taken from https://www.arsenal.com/news/i-want-keep-adding-goals-my-game (and ArseblogNews):
    ‘on showing the desire to score still in the second half…
    “Yes, the manager got into us to keep going even if it’s 3-0 or 4-0 and we knew we had targets, we had to keep pressing and keep trying to win the ball back even when we’ve scored a lot of goals.
    That’s what he drills into us and that’s what we try to do.” ‘

    Not just at half time but “That’s what he drills into us” on the training pitch I assume.

    So are different parts of the squad getting different instructions? Could it be that midfield & forwards are being told to be ‘proactive’ but defence is being told to be more conservative?

    But that can’t be the case as surely it makes no sense (you need to work as a team not simply as units) but it might explain the gap between defenders and midfield during (iirc) the Man U match.

    oh, I don’t know. Just seems odd.

13. I’d rather not speak about what Emery’s doing, because I am sure the club has much more stats at their disposal. My hesitation is fed by Chamber’s comment after the league cup game; the players might grow a fighting spirit and transform into aggressors, when all injured players return.

    Emery certainly made some wrong calls last season, and I am watching and waiting to see how things work out for him this season.

    Raul’s laid down the target for the season, it’s the UCL qualification via the top 4 league spots. The resurgence of being Leicester and the Wolverhampton spoilers should make things interesting.

14. Claude

    You ignore the fact the chances he creates are not leading to goals being scored. The table which Tim had in his post a few days ago showed that despite all of his technical skill we have been not an more effective attacking team when he is n the pitch. I don’t understand why we would focus on a stat such as “chance created or pass completed when the evidence suggests those stats are misleading us and the player in question is not making the team better at scoring goals when he is on the pitch. Why would a manager use him when he has other options who add more in other parts of the game?

15. Talking about chances created, passes completed and individual players brilliant past accomplishments makes great discussion fodder on a blog. Unfortunately even the greatest players in history hit the downside of their career arc and lose their effectiveness as some point. IMO the manager has to be willing to ignore a past accomplishments and a players reputation and wages and focus on using the players who give him the best chance to winning games going forward.

16. Bill, asserting falsehood as fact isnt a winning argument.

    Nor is arbitrarily deciding that a particular stat doesnt matter because it doesnt support your argument.

    Nor is fact free speculating that the stats folks methodology MAY be wrong, because it doesnt support your argument.

    I asked you a simple question, so far unanswered… Is Ozil one of our 20 best players, or not?

17. It’s not a question of being “best” or not. Selecting a football team is about balance. I can think of loads of Arsenal players from the past, who if stats were available would not have got in the side based on any statistical “evidence”. They were there because they did just a couple of things really well, which were key to the overall functioning of the team. When picking a team, you don’t simply go for the 11 “best” players available.
    As an example, lets say you pick a forward line of Auba, Laca and Pepe, then it goes without saying that your midfield has to be selected with what those players do or don’t do. Would Ozil be one of those players? In my book, no. More significantly, neither does Emery. Also , bear in mind that Arsenal have an enormous back up of coaches, fitness experts, medical people etc etc. You then have the “bean counters”. The contracts people, the accountants. This idea that Emery is having a personal “huff” with Ozil is almost certainly a complete nonsense. I suspect decisions have already been made. I would be amazed if he is still at the club in January. Decisions like that aren’t taken lightly.

18. People use statistics, the way a drunk uses a lamppost.
    For support, rather than illumination.

19. Let’s take a real live, living example. Freddie Ljundberg. Not particularly quick. A pretty average crosser of the ball. One footed. Good in the tackle, but not great. Rarely headed the ball. Couldn’t shoot from outside the box. Good energy.
    If there had been detailed stats in those days, then he would have looked decidedly average by most metrics.

    However.

    He had a talent for making runs into the box, and when you put him in front of the goal, he kept his nerve and finished. He also had the extreme good fortune for playing in the same side as Dennis Bergkamp, who somehow managed to give the ball to him, inch perfect, without even looking up, every single time.

    As a result he was pretty much indispensable to the team.

    Of course, if you tried to quantify any of that in any meaningful terms, you probably wouldn’t get close.

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