15 minute blogs

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1. Just to add, Martinelli is new in England from Brazil and he’s already wearing short sleeves. That has to qualify him for bonus points. And no gloves! I mean, c’mon.

   1. 4 out of 5 stars

      But if he wears a SNOOD… EVER.

2. Great review Tim

   That game had the same feel as the Carling Cup games from the “project youth” days of the early part of the Emirates era. Just like back then we get excited about what we see. To me the best thing was seeing Holding, Bellerin and Tierney all get some minutes.

   I know we beat this to death but I am not sure what you saw yesterday that says “Ozil gotta play”. We scored 1 goal in the 71 minutes that he played and 4 goals in the 20 minutes after he went off. I am not suggesting that taking him off was the reason we scored all those goals but I am suggesting that we certainly did not look like a more dangerous attacking team when he was on the pitch. 3-4 years ago you always thought something positive would happen whenever he had the ball at his feet in the attacking 1/3 but that is no longer the case and the only thing he brings to the pitch that no one else in the squad brings is reputation.

   1. Well, I mean, Ozil created 6 chances. And by that logic we should play Chambers at left back because he created two of those assists from the left back position!

      1. I must admit these “6 chances that Ozil created” is an endless source of fascination for me. Having been at the game I don’t recall any of them. What constitutes a chance? What were the outcomes? Did someone score? Did someone miss? Please enlighten me. One of life’s mysteries.

         1. Have a great day!

   2. What Tim said 👆🏽

      We also ran hard at a tiring team.

      You work way too hard at that anti-Ozil bias, Bill.

3. Who wears short sleeves?
   We wear short sleeves!

   1. LOL..

      If you dare wear short sleeves!

4. Tim

   I would suggest that anyone who touches the ball in the final 1/3 as much as Ozil does in a game like yesterday is probably going to be credit with several “chances created.”

   The chance created argument was the same one that has been used to argue that Ozil was playing well for Arsenal and Germany before last year. However, if he is actually creating good chances while playing for teams with good finishers then why doesn’t he ever get credited with assists? Either he is just incredibly unlucky and by happenstance the players he passes the ball too are fluffing all of the chances he creates or those passes that are being credited as a “chance created” are not the same high percentage chances he used to regularly create. Of those 2 possibilities I would suggest the latter is much much more likely.

   1. Ok, well, a lot of things here.

      First off, Ozil made the game easier for Arsenal in the first half. Second, you’ve created a tautology from which Ozil can’t escape. He’s creating chances, but anyone would create those chances, he’s creating a lot of chances but they aren’t good enough chances.

      Third, the question as to why he’s not getting assists. Most assists come from big chances. Ask also “do we have players getting into big chance positions” and “does Emery’s football create more or less big chances” and “is Ozil creating more or less chances based on the time he’s playing” and “what effect does the role that Emery wants Ozil to play have on Ozil’s effectiveness”?

      Just Big Chances created as a team:

      2015-16 – 97
      2016-17 – 78
      2017-18 – 95
      2018-19 – 81
      2019-20 – 70 (pace)

      Now Ozil’s Big Chance creation:

      2015-16 – 28
      2016-17 – 9
      2017-18 – 13
      2018-19 – 3
      2019-20 – 0

      His Europa League numbers are the same:
      2017-18 – 5
      2018-19 – 0

      So, it’s either the case that Ozil fell off a cliff in terms of quality or that Emery isn’t playing him the right way. If you ask me, based on what we see from this team on a week-in week-out basis for the last year or so, based on the declining shots numbers, and based on the team’s decline in quality of chances created, I think it’s Emery that’s the problem.

      1. Could just as easily be a factor of the contract he signed. Wenger has actually said in the press that, in his opinion, he has fallen into a “comfort zone.”

5. I love the fact that Mykhitaryan, Elneny, Monreal, Iwobi even… these players were taken away from Emery to force him to play Saka et al. Even if we don’t care for Emery as coach, I think last night was testament to the positive direction the club is being managed at the executive level. I’m pretty sure we’ll see more Martinellis now that Edu is here, he being plugged into the Brazilian national team set-ups. Some of those players we saw last night will probably be sold on for great profit in a year or two, but that’s OK, so long as we reinvest. The fact that United passed on Martinelli but we’ll could soak them for 80 million next summer for the same player would be hilarious.

6. Basing game analysis and judging players based solely on advanced stats such as chance created or key passes is often misleading. If the rumors we hear are true StatDNA suggested that players like Mo Elneny and Lucas Perez were top quality undervalued footballers and were excellent transfer targets.

7. No Xakha and a good Torreira game. And the same Xakha substituted last PL game. Would it be possible that our friend Unai, the highly paid professional, starts to grasp after more than a year what an ignorant amateur like Tim (and a lot of this blog’s participants) has been saying for many, many months?

8. Slightly off topic here, but I want to give it a shot.

   I will be visiting London next week on a business trip with a couple of people who want (and will) go to the Tottenham CL match. I decided to skip that activity (along with the 250 euro ticket) and instead try to go to the Arsenal match against Standard.

   Can any of you guys advise me on the best way to obtain a ticket? A friend of mine from London suggested the twitter account Arsenal tickets, but they are either sold out or the profiles look slightly suspicious.

   If you could help a fellow Gunner realize his dream of finally watching his beloved club at the Emirates, I shall be eternally grateful.

   1. If you ask on twitter I can retweet you and you might be able to get a ticket. Just don’t pay more than face value!

      1. Thanks Tim,
         I managed to find a contact working close to the club so I’m waiting to find out if she can get me a ticket, so if that fails I will probably ask for one on twitter and ask you for a retweet.
         Much appreciated 😊

         1. Follow this handle on twitter:-

            Take a look at Arsenal Tickets (@arsenal_tickets): https://twitter.com/arsenal_tickets?s=09

            Someone or the other will sell you the tickets, infact saw a few retweets on available tickets. As Tim said, buy on face value only.

            Have fun. Cheers!

            1. Yeah, friends recommended the same one, I’ll definitely give it another go.
               Thanks! 🙂

9. That we looked very good and finished superbly should be tempered by the fact that we were playing Forest at home. The true test is United. They are down, and playing poorly, but I’ll bet that we will contrive to make them look like Liverpool.

   Some of the youngsters are charging hard for places, and every time Willock plays (with the exception of late against Watford, when he was a bit too untethered) he makes a decent case.

   I said a few weeks ago that the fact that we kept Martinelli and loaned out Nketiah shows that he his ahead of Ed, but someone countered that he needed to stay close to base to acclimatise. May be true, but I think he’s the better prospect. Tries to do too much sometimes, but what a confident kid.

   I’d keep Chambers in the team even after AMN has served his ban. Hector, Holding and Tierney may not be ready for the next game, a highly demanding one.

   A word on Ozil (Tim makes a great argument in his favour). No one is arguing that he should start every game… just that Emery’s treatment of him is bizzare. “Rested” against Frankfurt after one gameback, and playing PEA for a full 90 in a game we were winning handily?

   “Rested” my flanks. Tim’s right. There’s more there. Those of us with functional noses were proved right about that last season.

   1. The true test is United? Couldn’t agree more. Ozil never performs at Old Trafford.
      It will be interesting to see who he uses and who he doesn’t. Who performs and who disappears on the day. It will be very revealing, like you say.

10. I keep seeing statements about a player who many supporters from other clubs see as one of the three reasons why Arsenal didnt fall sooner. Ozil, Sanchez and Cazorla are who most fans of other clubs think carried the club.

    Now, I don’t believe that, but I do see why they would say that. We have been so critical of anything to do with an underwhelming Arsenal since Ozil arrived, aside from the FA cup successes, that it has become normal to label everything about the club rubbish. I actually do think Ozil might be a little bit overrated, but by his critics. They always set standards so high that he can’t possibly reach them. People want an assist every game, people want him to dominate the every game, people want him to turn every big game loss into a win. Its not posibble, not even for Messi.A lot of his critics are looking for that Leicester performance again and again, forgetting that they have never seen any player really play like that in their lives. It’s like asking Bergkamp to score that Newcastle goal consistently.

    Until Kevin Debruyne last week, Ozil was the fastest player to 50 assists in Premier League history. That, in a side that has never beaten anyone by six goals since he arrived, which is basically routine for Man City. He did that without a Henry, Van Persie or Aguero in his side, and in what is clearly a far weaker side than any of Bergkamp, Cantona, Debruyne or even David Silva. Ozil I creatively, the best #10 the League has seen statistically.

    Ozil isn’t the greatest player ever or even the best that I have seen at Arsenal in the last 10 years (that would be Cazorla), but all this talk of him being a bad player who never performs is severely uninformed and factually wrong. How a player makes you feel shouldn’t blind you from what he actually does. If you feel like he isn’t doing it for you, then fine. But there should be truth and context in how he is analysed.

    During his time with Arsenal, in the whole of Europe, which can basically count as the highest level of football on the planet, Mesut’s numbers when it comes to assists, key passes, chances created, big chances created, throughballs, final third touches and so many other metrics used to measure creative impact, he is either the best or close to being such.

    It feels like people are gonna say that someone fell off for long enough, that when they do fall off, they can say they were right all along. Anyone who says Ozil isn’t consistent only feels that way, because when stats come into the picture, he is as consistent as anyone playing for a side in perpetual decline.

    1. And he had blimmin’ Olivier Giroud for much of the time he was tearing up the assists charts.

    2. It’s weird. Like I know he’s not perfect. He has bad games like everyone else. But lots of people seem to judge his performance predominantly through the lense of the defensive work they think he should be doing as opposed to the offensive work he has consistently been doing for years.

       1. All of this is true. Ozil hasn’t changed but the game around him has, and he never adapted.

          The best (and most creative) player I’ve seen at Arsenal in the past 10 years was Cesc Fabregas. Anyone know if him or Ozil was more creative? It would be an interesting comparison since Cesc played a deeper role for much of his early Arsenal career. Maybe it’s my sepia toned memories, but I recall Cesc just dealing daggers all game long, and he did it for years, and he played some defense too. I don’t want to get into the whys and wherefores of his eventual departure, just a measure of appreciation for the player he was while he was here.

    3. If you want to know who is carrying the team and who isn’t, the last people you ask are the fans of other clubs. The people you really need to talk to are the people who go through the turnstiles week in and week out. They know exactly who is doing it and who isn’t. Cazorla was a fabulous player. He made the team tick. Any Arsenal fan will tell you that. His injury problems were a crime against humanity.
       Sanchez ended up playing for himself. Didn’t mix on or off the field. Nobody shed any tears when he went. Witness his performances for United. When Ozil finally leaves the club, which he will do once someone is prepared to pay his wages, he won’t be missed either. He blows hot and cold. Can’t be relied upon in the big games, when the pressure is on. I went to my first Arsenal game in 1960. Cazorla almost gets in my favourite team of all time. Ozil and Sanchez don’t even figure in the top 50.

11. This was the first game this season that I actually had fun watching Arsenal play. Maybe it was the low pressure environment. Maybe it was the poor quality of the opposition, or a better balance in the side. Maybe it was Freddie’s team (what with the youngsters being his wards) or it was Emery consciously taking a step back and getting out of his and the players’ way .

    Whatever it was, it was fun. Martinelli seems a great talent. Both goals were great finishes, and very different. Not sure about Claude’s contention that he’s ahead of Eddie. But it’s a nice problem to have. I think and hope both have a bright future at Arsenal.

    Joe Willock is surprisingly good almost every time. I think he’s my favourite young player at the moment. Great to see Rob and Hector back on the field, and a first look at Tierney. (We’re not on a first name basis yet)

    I know there are tougher tests to come. But please let this sort of football continue. I’d be happy enough with that.

12. Do you think any of the players miss Wenger? Other than Ozil, who obviously loved Wenger.

    1. As a coach or as a person? I never got the impression that any players disliked Wenger, rather they all admired him. So I would guess they all miss him. As a coach, probably only Ozil, Mustafi maybe.

13. Tim

    You are basing your argument on the big chance stat but you ignore the fact that Mesut’s goal and assist numbers in the last 4 years has been 25, 17, 12, 7. In euro 2016 and World Cup 2018 Ozil has played 8 games and has 1 goal and 1 assist. Why do believe the big chance stat when the goal and assist numbers tell a completely different story?

    Ozil has been playing with reasonably good strikers that score a reasonable number of goals and the stats tell us he has been creating lots of chances but yet his assist totals have dropped precipitously. How can you create lots of big chances on teams with solid finishers and not have assists? That makes no sense unless you believe Ozil is on a incredible 3 1/2 season run of terrible luck where the strikers just happen to somehow miss all of the big chances he creates. The only realistic explanation is the way chance created stat is recorded is misleading.

    1. Who are these strikers that you speak of? And what is their conversion rate? Ozilhas never had incredible numbers in terms of assists at any international tournament, and hasn’t really played with any good strikers for Germany.

       In the way that you put it, I could also say that Ozil was putting up unreasonable/astronomical numbers and now the quality of finishing has resettled back to the mean. I would actually like to see you compare those 4 years with another player playing in the same position, as well as taking into context the calibre of striker playing in front of them.

       If you judge a player in isolation, you can make them look bad because you decide the standard to apply rather than comparing. The best performing #10’s in Europe for chances created in the last 5 years will surprise you if you care to look. But if the team is in decline, what kind of stats do you expect any player to put up, especially one whose game is solely based on teamwork?

       I think Mesut is a very good player at what he does, but to give Ozil credit for what he actually does, rather than for what he cant do would be blasphemous right?

       I still need to know what “defensive liability” means Bill.

       1. “I think Mesut is a very good player at what he does, but to give Ozil credit for what he actually does, rather than for what he cant do would be blasphemous right?”

          How can you assess the value of a player without accounting for both?

          1. Accounting for both and defining a player by their shortcomings are two different things. And its important to realise that we put greater emphasis on what a player gives us, rather than what they don’t. If your focus as a coach is more on what a player doesn’t have, rather than what they can give you, you would be working backwards.

             Viera and his recklessnes, Mertesaker and his pace, Arteta and his lack of physicality and Carzola on his height. Even Guendouzi is just as bad defensively as granit, but you will not hear about it one bit.

             Whats funny is that only Mesut and Xhaka seem to be judged on what they don’t bring while every single player on earth has deficiencies. Now if everyone was judged the same, it would make more sense, it wouldn’t be so bad and you wouldn’t be accused of anti-Ozil rhetoric. If your judgement was tactical, then it would also make more sense, buts just the same old lazy and wrong statements put out about Mesut.

             Its also noteworthy to analyse Ozil against what we have in the side, who is playing ahead of him and what they are bringing. Last season we ended up with our worst defensive record ever, and that’s with Ozil playing a bit part role. We also ended up with our poorest season in terms of creative output, also with Mesut playing a bit part role. I doubt Ozil playing at the expense of an Iwobi or Mkhi, would have made us any weaker on both sides of the ball. If we had Kevin Debruyne, Bernado Silva, James Maddison or Erikson playing ahead of Ozil, I wouldn’t have an issue. But for Arsenal FC, in our current state, to turn our noses up at Mesut Ozil as if we have better players or are getting better performances from others on the pitch is laughable.

             He is judged on weird criteria. Even Ramsey’s numbers dwindled over the seasons, and with all his energy and industry still ended up with us becoming worse. Hell, the entire team’s numbers dwindled in the last 3 seasons and yet no-one is throwing similar accusations at them.

             So the problem for me would be that the assessment of a player should be done the same way for everyone, while taking context into account. If that happens across the board, then your assessment can be considered balanced.

       2. – Getting easily outmuscled off the ball even by other technical players(Deulofeu in Watford game), which often leads to dangerous counters.
          -Not tracking his runners
          – Offering next to nothing in way of defense on set pieces.

          Mourinho, who’s a massive cnut but knows a thing or two about defensive side of football, said that Ozil was the best in the world at what he did and there wasn’t even a bad imitation of him( I’m paraphrasing), but he also said Ozil’s idea of defending and / or tackling an opponent was to bunny hop around them.

          I find it interesting that people who seem very astute in their football analysis need an explanation on how Ozil is a defensive liability.

          Now, whether Arsenal are terrible at defending as a team whether Ozil plays or not, is another thing entirely.

          1. ‘Offering next to nothing in way of defense on set pieces.’

             I think this is the issue some of us have with that kind of criticism. Like being strong at defensive set pieces is just never going to be one of his strengths. I get the point about his defensive work overall, but judging him on defensive set pieces is like judging Holding on his assists in my opinion. It’s always going to be an area of his game that’s lacking, but he does other work relative to his area on the pitch that, on balance, can make up for it.

             Again, I don’t think people need an explanation on his defending (because he’s not a great defender) but we think he should be judged more on his offensive work.

             Like do people predominantly judge Auba on his defensive ability from set plays? People judge him more on his goals and the work he does at the other end of the pitch right?

             Like even when he was consistently one of the best attackers in Europe when it came to creating chances and providing assists, some people seemed more inclined to ignore that to concentrate on how he’s not snapping into tackles or barging people off the ball, and then using that that as the only way to judge his worth.

             1. “I think this is the issue some of us have with that kind of criticism.“

                It’s not criticism. It’s a statement of fact.
                Devlin asked about Ozil’s defensive deficiencies so I named three.

                Had he asked for his attacking talents I would’ve given those.

14. Really enjoyed yesterdays match. It was fun and i went to bed as happy as 3pts in the league.

    The whole team performed well (even though i think Smith-Rowe could do with a good January loan to get up to speed for next season).

    Tierney really impressed me. Early days i know, but i’m VERY confident he’ll grow to be a fans favorite.

    On Holding. Seeing him score whilst wearing the captains armband felt right. I genuinely felt proud for him.

    Special mentions to Bellerin (comeback& assist) and Willock (keep going son!)

15. Tim

    IMO, Even more important then any stats is what we see when we watch the games. The fall off in productivity and the subjective idea of Ozil’s diminishing influence for both Arsenal and Germany started long before Emery arrived. I would argue that the most dramatic drop off really started in the second half of the 17/18 season at the end of the Wenger era and what we saw last year under Emery was just a continuation of the natural process of a player whose ability to influence the games has fading as moves further down the back end of his career arc.

16. Ozil agenda aside in the comments, I think most of us are just happy that the football was watchable (and we won!)….more of the same on the weekend please

17. bill, we get that you don’t fancy ozil but, with the exception of a few like-minded folks, no one’s buying what you’re selling. just call it what it is; you don’t like ozil.

    i agree with what most are saying today, including the fact that it was only nottingham forest. the only thing i’m gonna add that i haven’t read is that i thought emile smith-rowe was awful. he wasn’t okay or a little off the pace. he was bad.

    1. I had the same sense with regards to Smith-Rowe and his performance. He wasn’t awful for me, but he wasn’t good either, in this game or against frankfurt.

       I saw him as our best young talent when last season started and I felt that he would become a first team player soon enough. But that injury seems to have taken more out of him than I thought. I hope his development can get back on track because he is a really talented kid.

18. Ozil created 6 chances? Can anyone remember one of them?
    Come on, remind me!
    Who scored or missed the chance?
    I must have blinked 6 times.
    Really must pay attention.
    I would love to know who generates these statistics, how they’re arrived at and why people on this site treat them like gospel.
    Is this a baseball thing?

    1. No one here treats anything like gospel, we are mostly all agnostic.

       Stats are useful, no one here thinks they tell the whole story. Also, no one thinks that stats are perfect. They are subjective, in that they are events defined by humans and recorded by humans (literally, people watching games), that doesn’t mean that they are useless. In general, these types of events are well defined and thus collection is easily repeatable.

       Definitions for stats are widely available, for example, chances created and key pass is here: https://www.optasports.com/news/opta-s-event-definitions/ a chance created is a pass that leads to a shot or a goal.

       Perhaps you did miss the six chances that Ozil created for his teammates and maybe you should rewatch the match, that’s up to you.

       Not a fan of baseball or the weirdly xenophobic thing that Brits have against “Americans and stats.”

19. Points taken.
    I should point out that I actually enjoy watching baseball, when I come to the States.
    However, you still haven’t answered the question.
    “Do you remember the 6 chances Ozil created”?
    The game wasn’t shown in the UK, but I imagine it was on ESPN.
    Can you recall even one?
    Tierney created chances. Chambers created chances, as did Guendouzi.
    Ozil?
    Im sorry, it just didn’t happen.

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