Endless possibilities, zero conclusions

Every second of your life, 5000 particles decay on your body. And each of those decaying particles is the end of a single electron’s waveform timeline. I am probably saying that wrong because I didn’t completely understand, but more important, each decay splits the universe into another timeline. At least that’s what I’ve heard from this week’s Guardian Science podcast: “Nature is quantum from the start”.

I’m not qualified to comment on quantum physics. And I guess I already knew that quantum theory suggests that there are “infinite” worlds but I never considered how big “infinite” really is. If my body’s electrons are creating 5,000 universes a minute, and so are yours, well, that’s a lot of possibilities.

That also means that this timeline, the one where Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and Donald Trump is President was probably caused by the decay of a fart by a dad in Tacoma, WA who turned to his then 7 year old daughter and said “CAN YOU SMELL WHAT THE ROCK IS COOKING.”

Yes, it’s my fault. I ripped the space time contimuum.

You, a football fan, a sports fan, an observer of the universe, know this to be true. Things don’t always fall the way that they should. The ball breaks a little more or less than it should. You get a deflection which makes the save easier, you get a deflection which makes the save impossible. The droplet of water runs down Jeff Goldblum’s hand one way one time, another way another time. There’s a lot of chaos out there, a lot of possibilities.

That’s not to say that you shouldn’t try to put some order on the universe. I mean, it’s not going to hurt you to prepare for an earthquake if you live in an earthquake zone or a tornado if you live in Kansas.

And in the context of football you might consider not letting the other team have so many shots, controlling the ball better, clock management, player management, budget management, pressing higher up the pitch, creating spaces for your team to play in, restricting spaces for your opponent to play in, and a million other things that I could write here.

What I’m saying here is that sports fans really like to see our team prepared. Or if not completely prepared, we would like them to look like they are putting some things away for the future. Like they are building toward something.

Also as sports fans we love to watch chaos in the other teams! Those are the best games. When both teams are playing back and forth, up and down the pitch, where there is very little control on either end of the field, and when there are lots of shots (and especially a lot of goals!), those matches are the most fun for the neutral.

No neutral ever said “I really can’t wait to watch Man City cruise to a 3-0 win over Bournemouth” or “gosh, I can’t wait to see Bolton grind out a 1-0 win over Charlton.”

There is an exception to that last sentence: when the underdog (no offense) grinds out a 1-0 win over a massive favorite. When you see a club like Man City get beaten by Burnley 1-0 and Man City have like 31 shots and Burnley have like 7, that’s kinda fun. The excitement being in the fact that in that scenario we know that Burnley shouldn’t win and that a lot of the shots City takes should score. So, every big save or big block is a little moment of joy.

We also don’t mind when we win boring or when we lose trying to a bigger opponent. Or if our team loses and there is a huge pinch of bad luck. I think we understand the chaotic nature of football. Few people are going to complain about the team’s performance in a close game in which the referee gives the opposition a terrible penalty call. Ok, well, they might complain but it’s not a lasting bit of frustration.

Most of us also don’t really complain when we win and it looks like it was luck. This is especially true if the team looks prepared, looks like they are building toward something, and the general direction of the club looks good. But a team can win and still have people complain.

I watched three matches this week: Napoli beat Liverpool 2- 0, PSG beat Real Madrid 3-0, and Arsenal beat Frankfurt 3-0. And in each of those matches, I think we saw a little bit of the above narratives.

Napoli beat Liverpool but I didn’t see the narrative that I heard on the radio and podcasts. This wasn’t Liverpool playing poorly but rather a very close game between two good teams.

The stats don’t back me up on this but I thought Liverpool created several big chances (they had 0 officially) throughout the game. Salah on the right, Mane on the left, and even Firmino – who was criticized as being off pace – opened Napoli up with incisive throughballs for shots.

It was a penalty which really decided the game. I’m not sure why this kind of point isn’t made more often but the penalty call was wrong, that was a dive by Callejon, and it changed the game. In another universe, Callejon gets a yellow card and maybe Liverpool hang on for a 0-0 draw or even win the game.

Napoli had created just one big chance up to that point. With the penalty, that’s two. Then playing on the counter, they created a third and scored a second goal.

Liverpool are coming off a season where they just won the Champions League. They are currently top of the Premier League. This was a match where a little bad luck, the calls just going against them, cost them three points.

Now Real Madrid on the other hand… well they are a mess! It’s probably not a surprise that Real Madrid are struggling. They lost a 40+ goal a season striker and still haven’t replaced him. They went from a season in which they scored 94 goals to one in which they scored 63.

If you had asked me if Gareth Bale could fill in for Cristiano Ronaldo I would have laughed. Then laughed. Then laughed some more. Homeboy had 2 more goals (8) than Sergio Ramos (6) last season. That’s fucking funny right there. Bale’s not even a disaster, he’s a halfaster.

It’s not a surprise that Real Madrid are not good now and especially against PSG when they were missing senior players like Modric, Ronaldo, and Ramos.

Zidane is the best midfielder in my lifetime but (no offense to his greatness as a player) he’s not a great coach. It’s looking increasingly likely that he’s going to be fired and Jose Mourinho brought in (personally I hope they get Mourinho). His tenure as a coach will go down in history as the only coach to win three consecutive Champions League medals and still be considered a bust.

And you can see why. They can’t play football. Without Modric running the show, without Ronaldo scoring brilliant goals constantly, and without Ramos’ on-field coaching, they don’t play like a team.

Now, PSG have their own problems and if I was a supporter of them (I wouldn’t ever be, even if I was born into it) I wouldn’t be too excited by beating Zidane’s discombobulated Real. This wasn’t luck or chance, not really. This was a Real Madrid team which never properly replaced their star striker, which has an overpaid waster on the right wing, which has an ageing squad, and which targeted a CM instead of the forward that they really need. This is a Real Madrid side which has self-destructed.

And then there was the Arsenal match. Arsenal won 3-0. Arsenal got six big chances! And Arsenal got a goal and two assists from their 18 year old wunderkind Saka! If that’s all you heard, it would have been an amazing win. But if you watched the match, I think you might have a different view.

I want to try to be fair to all sides of the narrative. I see all sides of these arguments, I really do. There were several things which happened in this match which we need to discuss. The first is that Arsenal were a bit lucky. The second is that Frankfurt outplayed Arsenal but… The third is that I see that Arsenal are – actually – starting to make headway into playing a definable style and that style is what created those big chances.

The lucky: Willock’s shot took a deflection and went in. That’s what happens when your team gets shots in the 18 yard box! Always, kids, always, when you are in the 18 yard box, especially on a counter attack, always always always take the shot (unless your teammate is wide open and you can get him the ball).

And just like Willock’s shot and goal was a bit lucky, Frankfurt were a bit unlucky. They created 15 shots in the Arsenal 18 yard box. Many of those shots just went wide, almost none of them were blocked (just three), and they created 5 shots in prime areas – none of which were on target, and missed both of their big chances.

Up until the red card, Frankfurt took 24 shots to Arsenal’s 11 and the expected goals were basically even with 2.47 for Frankfurt and 2.14 for Arsenal. I say that and I will also say that I think it’s fair for both sides of the story here to say:

“Arsenal conceded a lot of shots but almost all of them were low percentage shots, which looks bad when you add them all together and say that they conceded 2.47 expected goals, but each shot was low percentage and probability doesn’t aggregate through simple addition. So, if you take 20, 5% chance shots that doesn’t mean that you have a 100% chance of scoring a goal. “

“Yes but also, you don’t want to concede 15 shots in the 18 yard box because like the example of Willock above almost anything can happen! Plus, while it’s true that probability doesn’t aggregate through addition that way, it DOES become increasingly likely (or more accurately improbable that they won’t score) that they will score. And those shots conceded were far too easily attained by Frankfurt. They simply pressed Arsenal off the ball. A better team would have created more than two big chances. The fact that they didn’t score is more a reflection of their lack of quality than Arsenal’s great defending.”

Saying that we conceded 24 shots hides the fact that they weren’t great shots but also saying that they weren’t great shots hides the fact that you really don’t want to concede 24 shots a game. No team has ever finished top four conceding more than 13.6 shots per game. And that team was Leicester.

I bring Leicester up because I think what we are seeing with Arsenal is an emerging counter-attacking style. Leicester won the League playing football that way so I’m not going to try to say it cannot be done. It’s low probability football, but it can be done.

Against Frankfurt, Arsenal tried to sit deep, played two DMs (who actually helped cover wide), and pressed high up the pitch (sometimes). We also saw the keeper play almost every pass long, and the Arsenal attack was very direct, passing up the pitch quickly and creating big chances with ease because of the spaces allowed.

However, there are two components to a counter attacking game. And the second component requires compact formations, a lot of blocked shots, and a harassing defense which tries to win the ball back constantly before springing the forwards.

In 2015/16 Leicester gave us the blueprint, they were 3rd in blocked shots, first in blocked crosses, first in blocked passes, first in interceptions (by a huge margin over Arsenal who were 2nd), and first in total tackles and 2nd in tackles which won possession back. That’s what it takes to play countering.

Emery seems to know this. After the match he said

“We need to improve, we need as a team to be more compact and start our pressing a little more ahead, not let the opposition get to our box quickly.

“Yesterday [against Frankfurt], we could do that work better. On Sunday, at home against Aston Villa we are going to try to do better.”

This season, Arsenal are 18th in tackles (Leicester are #1 again), 18th in interceptions, 17th in blocked crosses, 19th in blocked passes, but! 3rd in blocked shots. There is clearly a lot of work to do if we are indeed going to play this style of football.

Against Frankfurt we also saw Arsenal abandon the play it out from the back philosophy. The keeper (Martinez) played almost every ball long. But that also didn’t work very well. It’s ok to play long, but you either have to win the first ball (which we didn’t do) or win the second ball (which we did a little better than before). But once again, the problem of dealing with pressure emerged and Arsenal were far too easily pressed off the ball. Losing possession deep in their own half.

Again, the counter point here is that Arsenal are missing a number of first choice players and that is a legitimate concern. Chambers and Emile Smith-Rowe lost possession far too easily on the right and you have to think that Bellerin and Pepe will improve Arsenal there. Most of Arsenal’s lost possessions happened on that right side.

As well, the Frankfurt failed pass map shows where Arsenal were pressing (most turnovers are failed passes) which was higher up the pitch than we are used to seeing (right in that band around the center circle).

These patterns aren’t new with just Frankfurt. I’ve seen Arsenal pressing higher up the pitch now for a few games. I’ve also noticed that we are trying to be a more counter attacking team. That could just be because we are missing Lacazette or it could be a more deliberate tactic by Emery, it’s hard to call at this point. We may be seeing Arsenal develop an identity, we may be seeing Arsenal just play to the players we have.

If I have to guess I would say that 5,000 atoms just decayed on my body and split the universe off into 5,000 different possibilities.

There is no answer.

Qq