Unai Emery and the Curious Case of Half-time Substitutions

Unai Emery has coached 60 games for Arsenal and in 21 of those matches he has made a half-time substitution. 35% of Emery’s matches at Arsenal have required a change at half time.

Three of those changes were listed as required by injury but the remaining 18 matches were all tactical changes. 30% of the time Emery is changing his team at half-time.

I need to be clear at the start here that I don’t think this is necessarily a good thing or a bad thing. I will go a step further and suggest that your personal opinion of Emery is very likely to color the lens through which you view the data I’m going to give you below. If you like Emery, this is proof that he changes and that the changes work. If you dislike Emery, this data might prove to you that he gets it wrong a lot. For me, I just see it as something different from the Wenger style.

I also don’t know why he’s deciding to start games the way that he is. Is it because of fatigue? Does he get the analysis wrong? Are teams surprising him with a tactical change of their own at the start of games? Actually, going back through the games it looks like a variety of these reasons why he changes at half-time. Sometimes injury to other players in previous matches forces a lineup change that doesn’t quite work. Other times, teams like Crystal Palace (e.g.) come out with a high press when we are expecting maybe a low block. If there is any commonality it is that one: that high pressing teams often force him to change tactics at half-time. But just as often, maybe someone has a bad day and Emery just changes.

One thing I can say for certain is that he isn’t afraid to make a half time change.

In 8 of the 18 matches with a tactical change at half-time, Arsenal gained points after the change. Emery’s changes won 5 games from a draw position and 1 game from a losing position. The wins from draws were against Burnley, Cardiff, Huddersfield, Newcastle, and West Ham. The win from a loss was the famous “sit down he said” match against Tottenham. In that match, Emery brought on Laca and Ramsey for Iwobi and Mkhitaryan.

Emery also rescued two draws from a losing position with half-time changes. Those two games were against Wolves and Palace.

The changes haven’t always worked: Arsenal have dropped points after a half-time change three times, against Leicester, Tottenham, and Chelsea. There were also 7 games where there was no change in points gained/lost (Palace, Watford, Everton, Fulham, Pool, Brighton, & Qarabag). But overall, if I add points won from a draw position (+2), draws from a loss position (+1) and the one total reversal (+3), and subtract out the same points for losses, draws etc. Overall, Emery’s half-time changes gained Arsenal 11 points. And in Premier League matches that tally is better: he won 13 points more than he had at half-time with his changes.

That said, most of the teams he’s making these changes against are what most supporters would consider games that Arsenal should be winning. Burnley (home), Palace (both home and away), Watford (away), Cardiff (home), Fulham (home), Brighton (away), Huddersfield (home), Newcastle (away), and West Ham (home) are not traditionally powerhouse teams.

Overall, in games where Emery makes a tactical change his record is W9 D4 L5 GF 21 GA 12 GD 9. GF and GA are only goals in the second halves of these games. Overall goals for in these games are actually 31 and overall goals against are 28. That’s a pretty huge swing in favor of his changes. Before changing his team is scoring just 10 goals and conceding 16, a -6 goal difference.

His record in these 18 games is slightly worse than his overall Arsenal average. Which is only indicative of these games being more difficult than others.

And finally, the players he’s subbed in have had various levels of success. The most points gained by a sub is Lacazette. When he was subbed in, Arsenal won both games (5 gained points). Torreira has been subbed in at half the most times, 5, but his sub in is a mixed bag: Arsenal lost points twice when he was subbed in, gained points just once, and remained the same in the other two games. Overall Torreira’s half-time subs have produced -1 points in game state change.

The player most subbed on or off is Iwobi. He was subbed off 4 times which boosted Arsenal +5 points in game state change, and he was subbed on 4 times which also boosted Arsenal +4 points in game state change. LOL. As ever, nothing can be definitively stated about this player other than the fact that bringing him on or off dramatically changes games.

So, there you have it. A look at Emery’s half-time subs. Here’s the point where you ask me to do 400 hours worth of work and look at all his subs, look at Wenger’s subs, look at all subs across all managers in the universe, then cross tab, and figure out how much better/worse Emery is at subs.

I will be happy to compare all 38 teams in the Premier League from last season for the small sum of $1,000 US Dollars. If you would like me to add in other leagues, each will cost $1,000. If you would like me to look at all subs (not just half-time), the price will increase to $10,000 per league per season.

Or, you could do it. Sorry, but I have to nip that in the bud because it’s the single most predictable response to these posts “could you please look at…” Nope. I have a daughter and a life and unless one of you richie rich types wants to give me money, I ain’t doing it! So, don’t even ask.

Qq

34 comments

  1. The last 3 paragraphs are hilarious because just before reading them I was thinking just how much work you’ve done for this and making a mental note to remember to thank you.

    Thank you.

    I don’t have a problem with making half time subs as such. Nothing wrong with wanting to change the game. I think Wenger’s 65min+ subs policy had some possible benefit, but so could this. I just don’t like how he sets up to play.

    I support playing out from the back if that’s his vision. Hopefully he’ll have the courage to stick with it. I think it might be what is needed against Liverpool. If we try to stay back and defend, we’ll get overrun. Best to go toe to toe, and hopefully a transition will go our way. I’m betting we make another half time sub.

    1. You’re welcome.

      One thing I left off is that most of the time that he’s making this half-time sub teams are pressing Arsenal high. We often get overrun in midfield. I don’t know if we are ever going to have the personnel to play out from the back the way Emery wants.

      I also don’t know if this play it out from the back thing is such a good idea. I know it’s the doyen of football right now but it feels faddish and from everything I know about tactics (which is admittedly not a ton) systems like this require specific types of players. What I think we are seeing is a reaction to the play it out system, which is a high press. And intentionally inviting a high press really feels like the wrong way to go. It violates all of my stats senses.

      1. It’s true. It does feel faddish. I’ve seen teams in Germany and France do this and they end up conceding because of it, while it doesn’t seem to contribute to their attack.

        I’d just like to see Emery establish some kind of consistent identity. Playing out from the back (in this manner at least) wouldn’t be my go to pick, but it’s something.

      2. Not really faddish, in my opinion, because it Arrigo Sacchi’s AC Milan broke Serie A with it 30 years ago and he had learned it from observing tactics in Germany employed by the previous generation of coaches there. Then Cryuff took Sacchi’s concepts to Barcelona which then got embraced by the Spanish/Latin school; Bielsa, Guardiola, Pocchetino. Klopp, Hassenhutl, the Gegenpressen proponents are almost the third generation pressing tacticians.

        What’s happened I think is that modern conditioning has caught up to the tactical concept and now you have highly fit athletes who can keep that tempo up for 90 minutes. Remember, it wasn’t that long ago that players came to training camp 10-15lbs overweight, trained for only 60 minutes a day on the pitch, ate jelly beans at half-time, and went for beers after the game. Now they have daily blood work, their meals are pre-cooked for them based on workload and biometrics, there is no “off-season” where players can get out of shape.

        High pressing is here to stay. And the lack of technicians in the sport, guys like Ceballos who can manoeuver around pressing defenders, only makes it more inviting to press in the opponent’s half.

        1. If you’re looking for what Emery wants from his team / style, I’d say this is the season to start watching carefully. Last season was not. Which is why I’ve been an advocate of not judging him based on his first season in charge.

          1. Yes. I wasn’t really thinking of the half-time subs, per se, which does seem like something he does. I was thinking more of the overall effectiveness of our play (playing it out from the back, pressing, etc.) mentioned above.

      3. I don’t know if we’ll ever have the players suitable for playing out the back under pressure but we definitely don’t have them now.

        Monreal and Luiz come closest but that’s about it for the back line as it stands now.
        Midfield, Pepe and Ceballos offer hope and perhaps Guen too, although not sure how desirable it would be to have Pepe drop that deep all the time.

        Too many Arsenal players lack a great first touch and that’s why many plays just fizzle out .
        Auba scores a lot of goals but it’s absolute maddening how many bad touches he takes for a world class striker.

    1. Yes. I think this article is putting too much stock on last season as definitive. It was his first season. He didn’t have the players he wanted. There were multiple injuries and form issues. Etc. Regardless, the narrative above is that he is being “forced” to make these changes, rather than that he is being adaptive / proactive. This is a matter of phrasing, but it is telling in terms of how willing one is to give Emery the benefit of the doubt.

      1. Well, he’s being “forced” to make these changes because if he doesn’t make them he would lose 6 games and draw 8 more and almost all of those are against really bad opposition. As for being adaptive, that there is no doubt. However, I think it’s weird to use the word “proactive” because he’s clearly not going into these games thinking “I’m going to lose the first half so that I can win the second half with a great half-time sub.” I feel confident that these are reactive subs.

        I think I was clear, however, that there’s nothing wrong with reactive substitutions. It seems fairly normal to me for a coach to change his lineup and tactics in order to react to what the other team are doing. I can’t even figure out why you think that I think that this is negative.

        I do think it’s weird that his teams are surprised so often in the first half. But there are a ton of reasons why that could be happening. Like I said.

        This isn’t the Davinci code, man. No need to read into my writing for hidden messages.

        1. I hated the Da Vinci Code.

          But more to the point, you’ve trashed Emery consistently on this site for months now, so I don’t think it’s far-fetched to see that message here, too, albeit much less forthright! But maybe I’m wrong in reading your intentions.

          I didn’t love what I saw last year, but I’ve always felt it premature to dismiss him after one season. But the pressure’s on now, for sure. I’m expecting us to improve under Emery this season. If we don’t, it’s bye bye. But by the by, “improve” doesn’t mean there won’t be some hiccups as we wait for some players to get back from injury and for new players to adapt. Like, I think we’ll lose to Liverpool…but not 5-1! Maybe 3-1? Onwards and upwards!

          1. Interesting. I thought this article painted him in an unusually positive light. i thought I said that he gained Arsenal 13 points with his substitutions. I just as easily could have said “he almost lost Arsenal X points” or something else but I really did see it as a positive. Because I often change my mind and because I see a lot of nuance in things and write about that nuance often, you should take every article I write on its own merit. I think you’ve been around here long enough to know that I change my positions often, based almost exclusively on the data as I see it.

            I have no choice but to give him time, seems like Josh Kroenke loves Emery. I guess you’ll be getting that ice cream cone!

  2. Not sure I’d draw too many conclusions on last season. As Silentstan said, new league, new team.
    I do think later years Wenger was often too late and too conservative in his subs. Very rarely seemed to deviate from the 65-70min mark, no matter how poorly things were.

  3. Thanks for this exercise– I’d always had an inkling that the sum of UE’s halftime changes were a net positive. Even better than ‘just positive’ (at +11pts PL).

    Would wager though that we’ll not see them with the the frequency this season as last. Emery has a more-talented team, mostly deeper. Last year’s starters (in several cases) are this year’s depth.

    As far as Pool? (With you on this one Shard) Play it wide open. Don’t allow VVD to be the cleanup man. Make him stay pinned to an attacker.

    Bowie sang: ‘Putting out fires– with gasoline!’
    Time for that first 5-4 win Emery spoke of.

  4. Per Shard and Tim on playing it out from the back…

    That requires the player in possession to have his head up and the players around him to “show” for the ball. If immediate routes are cut off, look for a lob forward rather than a ground pass. Not all aerial passes are of the “kick it long” variety.

    Im not a coach or a player but Ive seen plenty of instances in which keeper passes the ball to Defender X. Standing between Defender X and a wide open midfielder Y is attacker A — directly in his line of sight — but well off the midfielder, who’s in acres. Instead of a chipped pass to the unmarked colleague, he plays it back to the keeper. Rinse, repeat. Mustafi and Xhaka send me mental with this. It is maddening, and it fails to see the field. But ah, youre gonna tell me… Xhaka is a good long-range strafer. But that’s when he’s in space in the middle further up the pitch and not being subjected to a press.

    Exceptional goalkeepers like Neuer and Ederson are masters of the mid range lob to an open guy in their own half, rather than the long punt to an attacker of winger in the opposition half. Punting it long usually leads to a lower ball retention percentage than playing it out from the back. And most premiership teams will win punts against Arsenal.

    Unai should stick to his philosophy.

    1. Playing out from the back takes away the reliance on winning 50/50 balls in order to keep possession. If we had a Drogba up top, who could chest down a 50 yard pass from the keeper while two CB’s are hanging on him? Then absolutely, go for it (more often… but not always).

      1. We had Giroud, who could definitely do that, he just didn’t have Drogba’s other asset of speed.
        Now we have speed outlets, but not hold it up outlets.

    2. I think Xhaka can be press resistant as long as he has options around him. But if he or anyone else gets caught in possession/transition, his lack of defensive awareness and foot speed are major issues. Why he tends to opt for fouling. Trouble is he plays for Arsenal and this gets punished with cards more often than not.

      Unai should always have stuck to his philosophy, whatever it is. It seems very strange to me to start from scratch in year 2, when even in year 1 it’s not like he played to the strengths of the playing personnel. This weird halfway house approach has always been my biggest issue/doubt with him.

      1. You are right about Xhaka, and it shows that a lot of the time, we underestimate our players based on bad form or playing in a system that exposes them.

        Xhaka captains Switzerland and plays with 2 very mobile and physical players who are technically capable of receiving the ball, protecting it and moving it on. They are a very good national side and play very expansive football, while also being huge proponents of playing out from the back. They have Manuel Akanji and Fabian Shar as centerbacks and they sometimes play with 3 at the back, But they are all ball playing defenders and can easily play in midfield. They also have very attacking fullbacks, who could also easily play as wingers or wing-backs.

        Quality-wise, we have a better collection of players than Switzerland and even Arsene wenger’s Last Arsenal side, and they are all capable of more. I have seen players take a couple of games off, but these players gave Emery everything they had last season (The running stats really leave no question marks as to their commitment) and for me, that exonerates them of blame for how last season went.

        We have a lot of talented players that are for some reason, looked down upon. Sometimes it baffles me how we as fans can say that the club should sell players of the calibre of Ozil or Mkhi, as if we would improve with their sale.

        I am still looking forward to seeing us play the side that played against Barcelona in the pre-season friendly, where Ozil is a second striker, Hard working inverted-wingers in Nelson and Mkhi, with Xhaka and Torreira anchoring our midfield, Bellerin and Tierny at fullback, luiz and Sokratis at centerback, with Leno in goal. For some reason, I feel like this side is more suited to playing in transition and countering in away games. I really wish to see that happen against one of the top sides.

      2. Everyone is “press resistant as long as he has options around him”, Shard. 😀 . Everyone. That’s the whole point about beating the press. The movement of others, besides yourself.

        What our Xhaka less midfield showed is the virtue of mobility, and Granit suddenly looks like a dinosaur. Devlin says he needs good, mobile players to shine, but that is an indictment, not a let off.

        I’d sell him a heartbeat. Know who was Swiss captain before him? Lichtsteiner.

        1. Yeah, I was surprised to see a few people in the previous post saying that our midfield was terrible against Burnley! The opposite was true.

          And when I saw David Luiz hitting long passes up to the forward, I immediately thought of the redundancy of Xhaka. However, given his experience and leadership, probably he’ll start against Liverpool; but I’d be tempted to stick with the same three midfielders that played against Burnley.

  5. Tim, you’ve given us plenty to work with here, so hopefully there’ll be no demands. Copy does not file itself, and content does not create itself (I just did some analysis on the radio for an old friend, and talk of money never passed the lips of either of us. But part of me thought, “darn. If that was X, 5 new bills would be burning a hole in my pocket for an hour’s work. Dammit, I even drove myself there”).

    To the point though, great analysis. Seems to me that Unai more often than not yanks players who are playing badly or did not stick to his plan. And (again, im no coach) it’s pretty plain to see who will be yanked. About 50% of the time I called it correctly (quietly, to myself, a few times here) at haftime.

  6. I prefer the half time subbing to Wenger’s substitution patterns, truth be told. It reveals two diametrically opposing things about Emery – he gets the initial game plan wrong an awful lot but, he has the courage and humility to recognize the need for a change.

    Just so long as he never subs off someone that he put on at half-time. That would be the sign of a horrible manager (Mourinho).

      1. Necessary. It was an act of mercy. A professional athlete was having a nervous breakdown in front of millions. This was worse than merely playing badly. It was full on, live, mental disintegration. And his own fans were slaughtering him.

  7. 2 strikers kolasinac at left wing 4 defenders and 2 holding in midfield only leaves ozil as a true footballing midfielder. this is why I think we are overun in midfield and ozil looks poor.
    we need a bit of old fashioned wengerball dani plus guendouzi perhaps alongside ozil creating for pepe or pea.
    get control of the middle..

  8. Hey! Could you point me in the direction of the resourcees for the pertinent data? I would actually like to try this myself. I’m really into data analysis, have been whetting my appetite with Statbombs publicly available data. Wouldv love to give this a try!

    Also, Thanks for keeping 7amkickoff going all these years. I’ve been ready for about 6-7 years or so. Love this website and everything you’ve ever done for Arseblog!

  9. Great post Tim

    I suspect Emery’s half time subs and his lack of a well defined and repeatable playing style were somewhat out of frustration because the players he inherited were not as effective as he thought they would be. When he was evaluating his players before the season he had what looked like a very strong midfield on paper and with established players such as Ozil, Mkhitaryan, Xhaka, Mustafi, Nacho, Kos and a potentially up and coming players like Iwobe and Torriera who in theory should all be reasonably good at playing out from the back. However, the players he counted on to step up their game did not perform at the level he hoped so was forced to find ways to adapt.

  10. There may be another sub-category to add to the reasons for subbing at half time: closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. I’m pointing to Liverpool v Arsenal last year, with Koscielny replacing Mustafi at half-time; we had shipped 4 goals by that point.

    I’ve been attempting to grasp at optimistic straws in advance of this weekend, as watching from behind my sofa did not work last year. Our starting back four was: Lichtsteiner, Mustafi, Socratis and Kolasinac.

    Your stats are incredible, thanks for the hard work. Here’s some anti-maths: Lichsteiner and Mustafi not playing are worth 1.5 goals; Luiz playing is worth 0.5 goals and the combination of Ceballos and 45 mins of Pepe are worth 1.5 goals. That makes 3.5 goals, so I reckon we will lose by a goal or draw if the wind is playing in right direction. I’ve used the much respected equation of depleted anxiety + new additions + hope – reality.

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