The 7amkickoff Index: Arsenal 2-1 Brexit

18 – Shots by Burnley
13 – Shots by Burnley inside the penalty area
5 – Shots on target for Burnley
5 – Shots on target in the Prime Area for Burnley (you don’t want to see this but it is positive for Leno, in a way)
1 – Big chance for Burnley
9 – Shots by Burnley off set plays
8 – Headed shots by Burnley
1.07 – xG for Burnley (Understat)
1.75 – xG for Burnley (Scott Willis @oh_that_crab)
1.83 – xG for Burnley (my formula)
1 – Goal scored by Burnley from open play
0.47 – xG for the Burnley goal (Understat)

Let’s break down their goal for a second:
They defended an Arsenal attack down the left, Nelson’s shot was blocked and Cork recovers the ball. He plays a long cross to Wood, who passes to McNeill in acres of space. Ceballos tries to stop the ball but McNeill dribbles around him and has a shot. Sokratis blocks the shot. The ball ricochets around Luiz – who was in a good position, this is just a weird bounce – and falls to Barnes (who will be from now on referred to as “Yer Da”). Guendouzi makes a sort of ill advised tackle from behind and actually blocks the ball into Yer Da’s foot and they score. Not sure what Yer Da’s celebration was about, squinty eyes? Anyway, I only go into detail about the goal to illustrate how sometimes a shot, the xG associated with it, and the goal is just pure luck.

16 – Shots for Arsenal
9 – Shots for Arsenal in the penalty area
9 – Shots on target for Arsenal (3 outside the box, 3 inside, 3 in prime)
2 – Big Chances for Arsenal (my personal count, explain in a sec)
4 – Shots for Arsenal off set plays
2 – Headed shots for Arsenal
1.2 – xG for Arsenal (Understat)
1.24 – xG for Arsenal (Scott Willis)
1.67 – xG for Arsenal (my formula)
2 – Goals scored by Arsenal
1 – Goal scored by Arsenal from open play

Ok, so, regarding the variations on xG. I counted Aubameyang’s shot from that pass by Pepe as a big chance and Opta did not. If you remove my extra big chance then my xG formula results are almost exactly the same as Scott’s. Couple more odd things: Arsenal didn’t score either of their big chances, which is one of the things I kind of don’t like about how xG aggregates chances. Arsenal have a “total” xG of 1.67 by my formula but the two chances they scored added up to just 0.13 by my calculations and 0.11 by Understat.

More weird stats:

446 – Passes for Arsenal
150 – Passes for Arsenal in their defensive third (34%)
178 – Passes for Arsenal in the middle third (40%)
118 – Passes for Arsenal in the final third (26%)
29 – Passes attempted into Burnley’s 18 yard box by Arsenal (5% of the total passes, 15 were successful)
3 – Number of Arsenal’s passes into Burnley’s 18 yard box which were long balls
16 – Shots for Arsenal
15 – Key passes for Arsenal
(Now look at this weird stuff)
155 – Passes for Burnley
24 – Passes for Burnley in their defensive third (14%)
69 – Passes for Burnley in the middle third (46%)
62 – Passes for Burnley in the final third (40%)
31 – Passes attempted into Arsenal’s 18 yard box by Burnley (13% of their total passes, 11 were successful)
17 – Number of Burnley’s passes into Arsenal’s 18 yard box which were long balls

Burnley are such a weird team but so are Arsenal. I am growing quite discontented with the “play it out from the back” thing. Today was one of the best examples of it I have seen from Arsenal, Ceballos was magnificent helping out deep, collecting, and getting past the opposition to run Arsenal’s midfield. But the entire system invites trouble unless you are REALLY good at it. The other trick to this system is that it helps to have a player up top who you can lump it to to relieve pressure. I love Lacazette but he’s not that guy and we don’t have midfielders who can win aerial duels. So, against a team like Burnley who are very aggressive with their press, the system looks shaky. And look at the stats above. Most of the game was played in Arsenal’s final third: there were 763 total passes in this game and 277 of them were in Arsenal’s defensive third (36%) and 186 were in the Burnley defensive third (24%). I guess I would be ok with this system if we were creating tons of chances but Arsenal are actually conceding tons of chances.

That brings me to another observation: I think it’s clear that Emery’s idea of “sacrificing attack a bit to be more solid defensively” is that if Arsenal take the lead, to just sit back and let the opposition break over them like waves on the shore. Sure, we will counter but he wants to control the game through defensive actions rather than possession. You can win games a lot of ways, Leicester won the League like this, but because I’m a stats guy I see this type of play and it worries. Brexit Burnley had 9 shots in prime, 5 on target, 1 blocked. Even Leicester in their league winning season didn’t play defense like that. They only allowed 5+ shots on target in prime twice that season, both times were Arsenal. And especially in the second half of that season when they locked the defense down.

27 – Takeons (dribbles) attempted by Arsenal against Burnley (14 won)
14.1 – Takeons attempted per game on average by Arsenal in 2018/19
8 – Takeons won per game on average by Arsenal in 2018/19
4 – Dribbles won by Ceballos (of 4)
4 – Dribbles won by Pepe (of 4)
1 – Nutmeg by Pepe!
3 – Dribbles won by Willock (of 4)
1 – Dribbles won by AMN (of.. 6)
0 – Dribbles won by Auba (of.. 4)

Ceballos led Arsenal in..

Passes – 63/70
Final third passes – 25/28
Corners – 6/6
Dribbles – 4/4
Ball recoveries – 7
Tackles – 2/5
Fouls suffered – 3
Key passes – 4
Shots – 3 (tied with Auba and Laca)
Possessions lost – 6
Assists – 2

Qq

74 comments

  1. Thanks for the post Tim. You certainly have a lot of love for all things statistical. Interesting stuff

    From a pure attacking and creative standpoint, last season we had perhaps the least talented and least effective midfield in this century and we still scored plenty of goals. In the ideal world you have strong creative midfielders who pile up brilliant passing and dribbling stats. The object of the game is to score goals and having top quality finishers is by far the biggest factor that influences the number of goals you score. We have Aubu, Laca and hopefully Pepe will add a 3rd double digit scorer. We are going to score enough goals. I like our chances to finish in the top 40 if Emery can find a way to decrease our goals conceded to less then 40. So far so good.

  2. Ceballos is playing for the for the same manager and so far he has played less then 1 1/2 games and he already has created 66% of Mesut Ozil’s total assists for Mesut’s entire league season last year. A lot of people blamed Emery’s system for our lack of effective creativity from the central midfield, however, no matter what system you use there has to be a critical mass of creative talent and that lack of talent limited Emery’s options last season. I suspect Emery will look a lot smarter this year then he did last year.

    1. Funny thing with stats sometimes, they do not show how the assists were made. I have always told people that a guy who plays in 3 very good throughballs and ends up with no assists, is more creative than a guy who passes the ball to Messi 3 times, and he beats four guys and scores a hatrick.

      Lacazette’s goal isn’t really a sign of creativity on the part of the player who passed him the ball, likewise with Aubameyang’s goal. These were not moves that broke down the opposition defence or had any combination play from a creative midfield to set up the goal.

      This is where I think people should use context when using stats. My father used to tell me that being able to do something, is when you are able to successfully perform it over and over again, using the least amount of effort possible (effectively). What I saw wasn’t necessarily creativity in how we scored our goals, but in every other facet of play, we looked better than last season.

      Just like the Totenham home game last season, I enjoyed it for what it was. We won a derby and scored 4 goals. But watching the game, if it was played over and over again, we would lose that game every single time, which they did just 3 days later playing the same way. But the prior season, we beat them really convincingly in a performance that could have beaten them over and over again.

      So Sokratis could pass to Aubameyang 4 times, and he could probably score 4 goals. That is not a reflection of his creativity. The two goals from yesterday show why people do not like Emery’s football, the way we score isn’t because of collective excellence, just the brilliance of individuals.

      Man City’s goals are repetitive, that’s the manager’s doing. Liverpool and Spurs are the same. When the team relies on goals that do not show a pattern of play behind them, then the system is a failure. I can’t blame players for not doing what Aubameyang and Lacazette are doing, because they should not be relying on doing that in the first place. Now it seems like we are expecting Ceballos to do the same, but the system will restrict him too, and he is already not that much of a creator, but more a facilitator of attacking play. More like Iniesta and David Silva, than Mesut.

      1. Excellently put.

        I actually thought Emery was smart to trust to individual brilliance last season because Ozil is not good enough and Ramsey was on the move.

        This season I’d definitely like to see more of a plan/system. I do however think that people exaggerate how much peak Wenger was based on the system. Just run back some of the Henry goals, for example… individual brilliance was an under-appreciated part of the ‘system”.

        1. Individual brilliance is what made the invincibles champions. Viera, Dennis Bergkamp, Pires, Henry they all produced moments of brilliance. It’s what makes a difference in football, that is true creativity.

      2. “The two goals from yesterday show why people do not like Emery’s football, the way we score isn’t because of collective excellence, just the brilliance of individuals.”

        ===

        Such a strange stick to beat Emery with.

        So many ways to parse this. For instance, “individuals aren’t able to show their brilliance without a collective.” Etc. In other words, the argument is a rhetorical one.

        Some people (not saying you) are clearly still yearning for Wenger’s jazz system, which also relied on individual brilliance.

        It’s early days yet, and the players are still figuring out each other, the coach, and the league. I don’t think it’s weird that we were somewhat frustrating to watch.

        Good win, some really promising performances. Six points from the first two games of the season? Can’t remember the last time we did that!

        1. “Some people (not saying you) are clearly still yearning for Wenger’s jazz system, which also relied on individual brilliance.”

          Spot on. And it does my head in at times.

        2. “Some people (not saying you) are clearly still yearning for Wenger’s jazz system, which also relied on individual brilliance.”

          Just to be clear: I had plenty of problems with Wenger’s system. I also think this system is worse than Wenger’s. Admittedly, that’s because I’m a stats guy and I see football as +/- shots and stuff rather than as wins/losses. As I’ve said before, the question for me isn’t whether the taxi arrives at the destination but the journey. For example, City had 30 shots, Tottenham had 3. I agree with Pep’s assessment that City absolutely destroyed Tottenham.

          “Good win, some really promising performances. Six points from the first two games of the season? Can’t remember the last time we did that!” – it was 09/10. Part of the reason why it’s been a long time since we won our first two matches of the season is because we almost always face a top 6 opponent in the first two games and always in the first 4. Usually it’s Liverpool (which is odd). Liverpool on Saturday is the big test. If we give them 30 shots and take just 3 they will eviscerate us.

          Our record against the first top six team that we meet is 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses since 2009/10.

          1. It’s not either / or, though, right? I mean, you want the taxi ride to be a nice one, but if it doesn’t get you to the destination, that’s a real problem.

            And how quickly we’ve forgotten: Wenger’s Arsenal in his last few years was almost unwatchably bad. We lost possession everywhere, scrambled egg defending, and utterly toothless going forward. And, on top of that, it too often failed to reach the destination.

            We differ on our positions on the club, clearly, and that’s fine. I actually enjoyed a lot of what I saw yesterday, and, what’s more, I’m excited about players like Willock coming through, the thought of Pepe being fit and sharp, Guendouzi actually looking better, a back four of Bellerin-Luiz-Sokratis-Tierney…lot’s to get excited about. I don’t think Emery is as bad as some here do, and, as I’ve said in the past, part of my judgment of him is based on context. Our midfield yesterday, for example, was excellent, and I say ‘excellent’ in part because these were three young players, including a loanee, that looked the business against a well-drilled and nasty Burnley team. No mistake, they are a big step up from Newcastle.

            Anyway [sigh] I can already predict the comments the minute we drop points, as if this is something that only ‘Emery’ does out of all the top six managers…

        3. Bun thanks for bringing me back to reality. I shouldn’t have been so eager to disparage Emery in match 2. I don’t think scoring will be our problem so getting goals any way possible at this stage of the season is acceptable. But our defense just looks so porous. Early days, and I keep thinking Bellerin and Tierney might help. But they too will need time to get comfortable in the system and at that point it could be December. That said, I like watching us a lot more now than how we looked during the May meltdown.

      3. You are so on the money. And for the reasons you mention I think we’ll struggle to make top four. Emery doesn’t coach defence, has a very narrow range of offensive plays, and doesn’t coach player improvement. The perfect example of which is Guen-dozy. Not to single the player out but I can’t see any improvement in his game these past twelve months. I also maintain that Emery is in it for himself. The next two games will establish whether Emery is a different animal this term but I’d gamble he’s hoping individual excellence will get us through.

    2. Your article reflects my feelings after the game. I felt that Burnley had more chances to score than we had. Secondly, every time Burnley decided to press us aggressively we would lose the ball. The period after we scored the first goal was a case in point. We still cannot keep the ball under pressure as a team. We aren’t giving the man with the ball good options. Ceballos of course improved us but not the system.
      I however like the way the team is trying to learn to pass the ball from the back. In the short term they will make mistakes some of which will result in conceding goals. In the long term, we will be better at possession under pressure.
      Last season, especially the first few games this seemed to be the objective by Emery until he realized he didn’t have the players to do that effectively. Remember that Chelsea game we lost early last season? We were playing from the back. We lost but it gave me so much hope at the time. If this is the new way, it will take time but when it does work it will be beautiful.
      Let us give Emery support in the mean time.

      1. I watch football almost every night of the week and multiple games on the weekends. One thing that you notice when you watch a lot of football is the importance of playing as a unit, helping each other out, showing for each other, spacing in attack and defense, and other team-related aspects of the game. These are things that Arsenal are OK at but not great. We are an oddly coached team right now. I don’t know if it’s because the players are stupid or physically incapable or if the manager is just not doing his basic job but Arsenal are weird. I don’t understand how we play with 2 DMs but still get overrun in midfield and are susceptible to counters. One possibility is that our wide players (Auba, Nelson) aren’t really good enough to play midfield and/or lack the experience in that position in order to effectively help out in possession. That leaves the entire midfield buildup to three players and those three players are often spaced oddly.

        If I had one wish to burn on football I would be curious to hear what David Luiz thinks of Arsenal’s system. He’s played in so many different setups that he’s got to have an opinion on what we do right/wrong.

        1. I tend to think that the coaching has been the issue and not just in the Emery era. But as well we haven’t had a good midfielder who could hold up the ball under pressure. The last time I enjoyed seeing arsenal play for the majority of the season was until 2008. When we had fabregas, hleb and company we had a fluidity that I haven’t seen again. Arsenal were silky in attack. Afterwards we had carzola who was also good but he didn’t have a lot around him except the ever injured Wilshire.
          We still don’t have one. Until i see what ceballos or pepe can do. I think our players are more suited to counter attack because of the pace in the team. Problem is our defence. It needs coaching. In the mean time Emery think we can play possession football, jury still out. Time.

          1. Arteta was mad underrated in midfield.

            Another quality you see in teams who are very well drilled is the ability to receive the ball in tight areas and get it to a teammate. Our midfielders can’t do that as well as they should and are often either turning the wrong way, taking bad touches, or have no one near them to help out.

  3. We weren’t exactly boring, especially in the first half, so that has to count as an improvement. But I agree with you about the playing out from the back stuff. On the one hand, at least it’s good to see some sort of a plan (if not a philosophy) but on the other, the risk to reward balance seems unfavourable. We still look vulnerable on defense, and aren’t creating enough.

    Two weeks in a row I’ve come away from the game feeling the players played well, but totally frustrated with the game as a whole. I really believe Emery is dragging this team down and preventing them from being better.

    But anyway. 2 wins from 2. I’ll take that. For now.

    1. I agree that we looked vulnerable but I’m trying to soothe myself that this was a particularly WW2 Blitz like approach by Burnley and I felt we looked a little more competent that last season. We also have better defenders to return. Tough on Chambers not to get a start though.

      1. Yeah, hope it doesn’t affect his confidence. Not sure about the Burnley approach though. I think we’re going to get blown away by Liverpool if we play like this. Our hope is just for a moment of magic from Auba or, maybe Pepe, who’s going to be fun to watch when he gets up to speed.

        1. You’re right, Liverpool is a different matter. I’m stuck somewhere between childlike, idealist optimism in the shape of an orgasmic Ceballos driven humbling of the Klopp gang and a similar or maybe worse massacre than last year, that I watch from behind the sofa. On a more pragmatic level, 5-1 is the benchmark, so a 2/3-1 would represent improvement, especially given that 3 of our top 4 defenders are not going to be playing. I reckon he’ll leave Pepe on the bench, in the hope that our new secret ballistic missile may be able to breach any gap they have opened up in the last 30.

    2. David Luiz is the perfect player for executing other options besides playing it out from the back, so worry not, my friend. He said in a post match interview that that was the game plan today, but if the plan was to change, there’s be no better executor of it.

      Tim’s right, we need bulk and presence further forward, and although Luiz hits open players rather than players in traffic, his skillset would work with a good complement further forward. I still yearn for a classic centre-forward. A CF, like Diego Costa or Edinson Cavani, who can mix it and who can play. Im surprised that Lukaku is no longer in the English game but you know what? I think he’d be a handy player at Arsenal. Don’t yell at me, but I would take him over Lacazette. If you think he can’t play, watch Belgium’s out of this world breathtaking counter-attacking goal against South Korea (scored by Chadli). I just think he’s guy who’s had bad coaches in England.

      We do look a physically slight team, and that’s why I have high hopes for Willock. The guy brings energy, man, energy that Xhaka does not. Xhaka does give his more physical presence, but Im loving watching a superbly mobile Arsenal with Willock, Ceballos, Guendouzi and Nelson.

      As for Ceballos? Ball security. Ball security in the crowded thicket of midfield. I’m not going to say the C word, but I heard it A LOT today. He’s Midfielder No 1 in my book. Who plays with him? And in what formation? Thoughts, please.

      1. Recreate Coquelin-Cazorla-Ozil midfield, with Torreira-Ceballos-Ozil?

        But both Guendouzi and Willock have done well too. And I thought Xhaka had a good game against Newcastle. We’ve got options!

        Agree on Luiz. I noticed him today and was pleased by his contribution. Maybe it’s the lack of physical presence up front, but after passing it out, I didn’t see us really link up with the front 3. This lack of creativity remains a worry to me. Everything Emery says about his plans and ideas gives me anxiety.

      2. Teams aren’t really playing with a big target man these days, are they? I mean the non-Burnley teams that actually win stuff? I’m not all that concerned about our physique, but yes, in the middle of the park, I think it does help to have both technically gifted players like Ceballos AND someone more physically energetic and imposing in the middle of the park. Agree with you on Willock.

        1. That’s because they are hard to find (both tall and talented) Bayern Munich have Lewandowski and Juventus had Mandzukic. Ibra did it for every team he played for. There’s also Cavani, Giroud, Dembele (Lyon), Kane, etc. It’s not just Stoke and Burnley that field tall players as an optional outlet even though they are normally a build from the back team.

          1. Do the two currently most successful teams in England play with one? I don’t think so. All I’m saying is that a big target man isn’t necessary.

          2. Nope, you’re right. But then Man City have Pep and he has a system which actually doesn’t ever use a big target man. He teaches his players how to play the ball around, show for each other, etc. It’s a system. Emery hasn’t improved a single one of Arsenal’s midfielders or forwards.

  4. Thanks for the post, lots of figures, some of which I will pretend to understand. I agree and disagree with you in equal measure with the new heart-stopping ‘play out from the back’ game. It feels similar to letting my kids go to town on their own, they have to learn, but there is the constant fear of terrible peril. I have never before seen a goal kick receive cheers of relief because it clears the half way line. As a disciple of Adams, Bould, Dixon and Winterburn, Row Z still has a place in my heart but the only way they will get better is by damaging our nerves.

    I only want to add that Ceballos is a clever move on Emery’s part, as there will be a fresh and wholly obvious hole left if we do not acquire or replace him next season.

  5. Our playing out from the back + Liverpool’s high press is a worry. 4 points from the games against Pool and Spuds would be lovely.

  6. This post has left me with low hopes for a draw at Anfield but high expectations that they’ll rip us a new one.

    1. If it’s any consolation, Liverpool’s defense looks like it has reverted to the mean. So, if we can create 5 chances, maybe we can score a goal.

  7. best start to a season in 10 years and from a team made up of 2 teenagers (first time since 1998) 3 players makiing debuts…
    yet I must slash my wrists…

  8. Still early days yet…but hoping to see more goal creating plays , apart from direct set plays and individual brilliance.
    Coygs.

  9. Danny Sea Balls is the b0ll0cks. Nicky Peepee was terribly exciting too. Can’t wait for Dick Saliva to join next season.

    1. Hopefully, they’ll fill some of the gaping holes we’ve had in this squad for too long now.

      I’m still not ashamed, Claude. 😀

  10. I saw a lot that I liked and sadly, a lot that I absolutely loathed. I was expecting us to become a more front footed team this season, especially at home against the lesser teams in the league. Last season, as the season progressed, we lost all of the fear that Arsene’s team had instilled in the opposition when playing at the Emirates. Every team now plays at the Emirates knowing that there won’t be relentless pressure on them from the home side and even if there was, the side just isn’t good enough at breaking defensive blocks as before. They also know that these side is worse than before at defending counters, while also being weaker in terms of quality possession.

    What I saw in pre-season gave me hope, and with Ceballos, I always thought we had a special player. But I didn’t think we would sell Iwobi, who I thought could have been very good alongside Ceballos in behind a front 3. How we played during pre-season always left me apprehensive about how good we were actually playing, because we played too many top sides and Emery specializes in being an underdog. So the first two games of this season might have shown us what we have coming in the following season against these lesser sides, home and away.

    The build up, as much as it scared the hell out of me, showed exactly why I hoped we had kept Iwobi. Last season he was our out ball when pressured, with his strength and skill, and alongside Ceballos’ skill on the half turn, we would have been able to pass into a congested midfield and have these two turn the opposition. Maybe Maitland-Niles will become the alternative in future, after we get a back up right back. What the build up also showed was how incompatible Ozil is going to be for this team if we can’t beat the initial press. I loved how he was played as a second striker against Bercelona, where he can be kept in the forward areas and get the ball in the positions that Aubameyang was receiving the ball, so that instead of Aubameyang failing to dribble past opponents just outside of the half way line, Ozil can use his now famous move of cutting onto his left foot and finding the truly incredible runs of Aubameyang.

    I also loved Joe Willock a lot in this game, more than any other game he has played for Arsenal. I think this game showed where his long term future will be in terms of position, it also showed what we have been missing for a couple of years now. Since the Arteta-Diaby and early Arteta-Ramsey combination in midfield, we have not had a solid and functional midfield combination. By solid and functional I meant a midfield that can win the ball, has playmaking, is dynamic with or without the ball and is tactically intelligent.

    In Willock, we have a player who adds presence, dynamism and yet does not forsake his positional duties (not the same as defensive duties). His passing isn’t too ambitious, he knows that possession should be protected but also makes the runs into the box that cause panic in the opposition. He does shoot enough, but I am sure that will come with confidence. He is a powerful ball carrier and circulates possession well. All in all, I think we found a less skilful Diaby (no offence intended). I love what he brings to the side and also makes me really upset at how Ramsey turned out. If only he had set his sights on being an good central midfielder instead of measuring himself with output, which is really not right for a central midfielder, we could have done so much more as a team.

    All in all, Aubameyang is giving me Alexis flashbacks. Guendouzi remains one of the best young midfielders, at his age, that I have ever seen in my life. Luiz is going to be very useful, especially whenusing a 4222. Leno is proving what a bargain I told people he would be, I still have no idea how we got him for anything lower than 70 mil. He is the new Manuel Neuer and we picked him up for cheap.

    Onto the next one I guess. Big game, Emery’s forte.

  11. Dyche had real moan, as discussed in the preview.. he was going on and on about diving. Of course he couldn’t come up with the player’s name beacuse the only team that did dive was Burnley. Felt like there was a swimming pool around the half way line..

    1. He needs to throw in the towel and take on his God-given role as a voice-over artist for blockbuster Hollywood trailers.

  12. the next 2 games will either put us on cloud 9 or bring us down to a jaw dragging bump.
    either way it is still early for this new look or first real post wenger team so we need to keep a level head and not get too down if things don’t quite go our way.
    I have watched the mousers and they are as yet not firing on all cylinders and the chickens were workman like at best yesterday if a little ponderous. erikson looks out of salts and no alli so a good time to get these games out of the way before they gain any type of momentum.
    so far so good 8 out of 10 for the start of the season

  13. Devlin

    I agree that in the short term some stats such as assists can have an element of luck. However over the course of a full season that luck will generally even out. The games where you get a couple of lucky assists will be balanced by games where you make good passes someone will fluff the finish. The real message of that is not to suggest that Ceballos is going to lead the league in assists, but the take home point is just how incredibly ineffective our central midfield as last year. When your top creative player is passing the ball to the leagues golden boot winner and another forward who is a good finisher and still only has 3 total league assists then you have to accept that our entirety central midfield was basically useless from a creative standpoint. Emery was forced to find ways to compensate for that lack of creative influence.

    1. I see I have sparked a little confusion with my wording, bare with me guys, English isn’t my first language.

      Bill, I get your point, I truly do. I just thought that we would see last season for what it was and not only look back at it without analysing the glaring inconsistencies in how squad selection (Ramsey and Ozil), and style of play.

      I also attribute our ineffectiveness in midfield to how he set his team up, but most importantly his tactics. When I said we score because of individual brilliance and not collective brilliance, I was talking about the type of goals that can not be replicated and show a pattern of play from the manager’s tactics.

      Individual brilliance is a long range shot, bicycle kick from a deflected clearance, dribbling 5 players and scoring. Those goals get you out of trouble a lot when you can’t score through your primary way of scoring, but not as these primary way. I was not saying that we should never score through incredible goals, but that those happen too infrequently and are such a statistical anomaly, that would be foolish to rely on them, especially in the current football landscape.

      Everyone wants to point to the invincibles, but during that run, Thierry scored more of his goals in similar patterns of play, so did Ljunberg (he scored a lot of rebounds from outside the box shots, that’s repetitive and tactical) and Pires (Scored almost all his goals how Sterling is scoring his golas at City, far post tap-in’s, again coachable and repetitive) the most. Viera’s goals for us also followed a similar pattern in how he would run, get into the box and then the finish was up to him, but rarely did you see him score a goal during that run which wasn’t following this pattern. There was usually combination play or a 1-2 to create a chance. Most goals that the Invincibles scored, the final ball was meant as an assist, I doubt any of the situations yesterday, Ceballos expected goals from them.

      The Invincibles are a great example of a team that went out onto the pitch knowing how they were going to defend, transition, counter and clearly attack. They didn’t rely on Thierry destroying a team to score, but in those games where you are unable to score how you normally do, these players can then try to step up.

      On the midfield, it just has more to do with how his team turned out as the season wore on and Wengerball started dissolving. When I started seeing a player like Kolasinac almost double the number of touches he usually has and the touches by our attacking midfielder (no matter who it was) decreased, I knew that the struggles in that area are more attributed to tactics rather than the general ability or form of our players.

      If you have ever played football, you know that you will instinctively pass the ball more to your most talented teammate. This instinct does not leave you even as a professional and coaches do not usually stray from that. For players as you grow, you learn how to firstly make the right decision, then play according to tactics and then this instinct comes into play last. As a coach, for attacking, you look into the weapons you have and then look to get as much of the ball into those players, in the positions that they can cause the most damage. Kolasinac is probably the most unsafe player to pass to at Arsenal. He has very bad ball retention ability and his passing is really bad for a top club. So the prioritization of the wingbacks ahead of our more capable, creative attacking midfielders was a tactical decision and one that teams caught onto very early on in the season.

      So, I am not against individual brilliance, but it is more attributable to the players rather than the coach. I am not saying we couldn’t get more from Ozil and Ramsey last season, but is hard to bring them into your failing system (which you keep the same way and dont adjist it for them) when teams have already figured your game out, and then look for them to do something more. To me, it is unfair, especially since no player can just go out and make an “assist”, its not like a goal where an individual can dribble past people and then shoot. An assist takes two and does not only rely on your teammate’s finishing, but imagine passing to someone and instead of shooting, they turn and pass it back to someone else to score, and etc.

      I will only criticize our creative players when they are given a proper plartform to show what they are capable of. If they perform like how Aubameyang and Lacazette are performing, then I will give them extra credit.

      That’s just how I see things.

      1. I appreciate your thoughtfulness in responding, and, as you rightly suggest in your closing remark, it is all subjective. Speaking of subjectivity, my thoughts: Often people who don’t like a coach or manager put the responsibility on them for the bad but on the players for the good. It’s just…not convincing. I’ve even seen people blame Emery for what Mustafi did against Crystal Palace (oh, but Aubameyang’s goal, that’s an individual thing!). You have not done this, specifically, but your comment, generally, speaks to the tendency. I saw many (not all) of Emery’s decisions last season as making the best of a terrible situation involving injuries and the tanking form of a few, and that includes the way he used Kolasinac last season. For example.

        1. I really wish I could give Emery credit for his first season, but it’s hard when the defence got worse than the worst we have ever been, while outperforming xG conceded and the attack, which was better in quality than the previous season, outperformed xG by so much.

          For this coming season, I am hopeful. I think he has more talent than we have seen at this club in the past 7 years. He has also had time to implement his way of playing (which I personally don’t rate) and he has the backing of the squad as well, which was surprising in how he got them to run more than any other side.

          I have a feeling that we are a better side on paper than Liverpool, and if we can get our play in order, we could knock them off their perch. We could compete wel, with everyone other than City, but I have hope.

          It’s not criticism for criticism’s sake. I just try to place context and I also know the impediments that bad coaching or bad tactics can have on players. If you saw Mahrez yesterday, he came on and didn’t play well and was below par, why? Because he is in a team that has given him a lot of the ball in the areas where he is most dangerous, and failed to produce. But if he came on and his team sat back, and passed him long balls, while leaving him isolated and he doesn’t play well, then I can’t criticise him because that would be unfair. The same thing with coaches, if you set out your way of playing, your way of defending, your way of transitioning from attack to defence and then Mustafi makes one of his blunders, then I can’t blame the coach. I dont think anyone blamed Klopl for Lovren’s blunders, why? The Coach did his job tactically and the player just blundered. But if the whole team is failing? That’s on the coach.

          I just watch the games, analyse it from how I saw it and then I check the stats, which either confirm or contrast what I think saw. I take my opinions from there and I think the stats prove my points.

          1. The main way I differ from some on Emery is that I think “credit” is the product of context. I give my five-year-old credit for his fine motor skills, not my thirteen-year-old.

            I’ll put my analogy in terms you may enjoy (!): Emery was a five-year-old last season. There were a number of issues he was dealt in his first season in charge such that I think a lesser manager might have ushered us closer to mid table.

            I kept my expectations reasonable last year (subjective, of course). They go up this season because I now think he has more of the kinds of players he wants, and we’ve made some upgrades.

            Question for you: if the stats look the same at the end of the season, but we finish third, say, would you give him another season?

          2. Just watched the highlights again. Aubameyang doesn’t get that goal if Ceballos doesn’t fight hard to win the ball back. Trying to distinguish individual from team / collective is a fool’s errand in my opinion.

  14. Tim, you called it: The ginger scrotum has been moaning about Arsenal diving!

    Hahahahaha!

    1. I honestly think this is some kind of Xenophobic and or racist dog whistle on his part. I wonder if he moans about other teams or if it’s just us.

      1. xenophobic and or racist dog whistle

        ===

        Yup. For sh*ts and giggles I read the comments section of the Mirror’s article on this. Didn’t take long for diving to be called a “foreigner” problem. What the bloatface is doing is precisely a dog whistle. He knows there’s a large number of empty-brained people who still believe foreigners are ruining the game. And, you know, normally I’m not too juiced on the whole hypervigilant/hypersuspicion thing, but I do think he has a problem with black people…that squad! I mean…?

  15. Ceballos LED Arsenal in..

    Passes – 63/70
    Final third passes – 25/28
    Corners – 6/6
    Dribbles – 4/4
    *Ball recoveries – 7*
    *Tackles – 2/5*
    Fouls suffered – 3
    Key passes – 4
    Shots – 3 (tied with Auba and Laca)
    Possessions lost – 6
    Assists – 2

    Ceballos is exactly the type of player to prove that like City and Spurs, Emery can also play with a technically gifted midfield maestro (10) who is equally adept at defending with purpose and with a noticeably high work rate. I like that we are catching up to how a modern midfield should work.

    1. It’s instructive that our second goal (however “ugly” some might think it is) was a direct result of such defensive action from Ceballos in the No 10 position.
      My definition of a COMPLETE and modern midfielder.

  16. Happy for the win of course. I however spent the entire game astonished at how shocking our defending still is. We were all too happy to concede possession after we scored as Tim said. And we have a serious weakness defending balls in the air. Only Luiz and Sokratis have any ability to win aerial duels. Guen AMN Torreira Nacho Ceballos and Willock get pushed around in the box. As much as I don’t like Xhaka’s ponderous play on the ball, he does a better job in the air than the young crop of midfielders. A tricky tradeoff for us as we are much more fluid when Granite isn’t taking 7 minutes to switch the ball to his left foot. Hoping Tierney is stronger in the air than Nacho. One more good aerial player will help a lot.

    Devlin was spot on about Emery’s style. Get possession in midfield somehow and get it to the strikers who will somehow score. It seems really haphazard and we seem no better in defense than last year. Tim has been harping on this for a while and I have been giving Emery the benefit of the doubt, but now am starting to suspect there is no there there. Still we might be good enough to eke out 4th place and move on to a new coach.

    1. Get possession in midfield somehow and get it to the strikers who will somehow score.

      ===

      Name me a team that doesn’t do this. Really confusing criticism. I think the “somehow” is doing a lot of work for you. By the way, is it “haphazard” or is it “graft”? Or is it “pressing”? Or is it “skill”? Or is it, etc.

      1. I think the somehow in defence is to indicate a lack of a clear way of winning the ball on our part. Whether we are a pressing side, whether we sit back, whether we are trying to push opposition paly to a particular area or whether we are trying to force the opposition into playing long/risky passes.

        The somehow in attack is probably about how we are meant to get goals, which is better this season but still lacks fluidity, and also lacks a consistent and effective approach to scoring goals besides having the strikers just pull something out of nowhere.

        1. I don’t know what this means. Had Pepe’s pass to Aubameyang late in the game been better weighted, that would have been both fluid, counterattacking football AND a ‘team’ approach rather than “something out of nowhere.” So, now, was Pepe’s under-weighted pass an individual thing or a system thing?

          I agree the strikers (for both goals) had a lot of work to do yesterday, I just don’t see such definitive things as “out of nowhere” being true in terms of a wholesale judgment of the system. Or it applies to every good individual effort on any team, which makes the judgment of “system” pretty redundant when applied to any one team in particular.

          1. Like I said, excuse my language, English isnt my first language so sorry for the words I might use. I probably exaggerate some things.

            My comment does not mean what I am saying is absolute and that we never play collective attacks that are based on the tactics of the manager, the criticism is that it isn’t happening enough or isn’t good enough. We will have clean sheets, but that doesn’t mean our defence is fine, that will be defined by consistency.

            I am just saying the way we play isn’t good enough, how we attack isn’t good enough, how we create chances isn’t good enough, how we press isn’t good enough, how we defend isn’t good enough and so Mich more. I get to that conclusion by comparing with where we were when we, rightly, let Wenger go. Because that was bad, and we got worse.

            But my statements aren’t meant to mean we will concede in every game, or never score collective goals.

          2. Your English is excellent. Honestly, I can’t distinguish it from a native speaker / writer.

            I think you’re just experiencing what we all experience, namely that language itself doesn’t always convey our intentions.

            Yes, that’s right folks, I don’t think language constructs reality. I’m a rebel.

          3. Oh, and you can also blame readers, who sometimes read intentions that aren’t there, no matter how finely the language is expressed. All that to say, no need to apologize for your (perfect) English…

    2. “Devlin was spot on about Emery’s style. Get possession in midfield somehow and get it to the strikers who will somehow score. It seems really haphazard …”

      I recognize that taste and perception differs. But I wonder why people question the effectiveness of Emery’s system just because it doesn’t suit their own idea of how Arsenal’s midfield ‘should’ play.

      For e.g How can you be certain that trying to “pass it into the net” is the best strategy? Or why do you think Emery should try to attack through the middle more often than through the flanks? Even when City is proving that teams can do the latter to devastating effect with the right personnel?

  17. chelsea drop points at home, man city too.
    hopefully wolves can do what they did last season to man u.
    we can start to play with some freedom then we will see the likes of pepe shine.
    I know our defence will get better too. yesterday we had a new recruit and two second choice full backs playing not many teams can survive like we have for half a season now.

    1. I really liked what I saw of Luiz yesterday. More than his ball-playing, what struck me is that he’s an organizer type. We haven’t had one of those since Mertesacker.

      1. …..and that he and Ceballos are a bit spiteful. Think how much spite we fielded in the Invincibles’ team. It looks like they both hate losing as much as Bergkamp.

  18. BUNBURYIST

    If we finish third, I would be happy and I wouldn’t mind him getting another season because I don’t think he is a terrible coach. I just think he isn’t good enough for Arsenal from what I have seen, but if he gets third, then he would have proven to be good enough and that is what I want, so I cant be mad. I don’t have a personal vendetta against the guy, I just don’t see what he has brought improved in the side besides the amount of running we have done.

    but a bigger thing for me and why I think we may have some disagreements is in how I would like to see Arsenal progress and develop as a side. Its a matter of perspective. That is why you will rarely see me criticise or praise individuals after a game, but instead the way we play. I wouldn’t have minded us having a season like last season for 3 years straight if it meant we were developing a way of playing that will allow us to compete at the very top for many years to come.

    I wouldn’t mind developing a group of talented players to play a progressive style that identifies with fans and neutrals alike, and a style that wins. I would have liked to see us develop a way of playing that would allow us to change coaches and go for the top coaches out there, because we would have a platform for the more modern coaches out there.

    I think he missed a chance to win trust with the management last season by not committing to either developing a way of playing or going for results, and ended up with neither.

    Funny thing is that I have a sneaky feeling that we will finish third this season.

    1. Fair enough. Personally, though, I can’t see past Tottenham for third. They just…I don’t know. They have this resiliency, and I think we would all agree that they have a special coach there. But also…none of their star players ever leave or ever get badly injured, there’s no drama around the club, and they have arguably the most complete striker in England. Who…even when injured…another player steps up. It would be amazing if it wasn’t also infuriating as an Arsenal fan! They just have an incredible squad.

  19. Sheesh. Someone seems to have given most of you downers. OK, those weren’t the most scintillating displays. But we’re 2(two, dos) weeks into the season, with a fair number of players that haven’t played together before. And we have won both games, unlike everyone else bar Liverpool.
    Yes, the play out of the back didn’t look great, but that is something that definitely takes A LOT of practice to do well.
    And yes, I’d like Giroud back as an outlet option for certain games, but City, Pool and Barca have all won a fair amount these last few years without a big tradition CF.
    And I’d give the defense a little longer before concluding it’s again shite. Defense also takes a fair amount of playing together to become good.

  20. I don’t think we can judge Emery’s style based on last season because we did not have the talent to do anything other then somehow get the ball to the forwards and let them score. The point is you can’t play beautiful flowing attacking football when your midfield is as utterly ineffective as ours was last season. I would be crazy to try and play a style that you don’t have the talent to execute and you have to adapt your style to the players you have available. Last season the only realistic option we had to find ways to get the ball to the forwards and hope they scored and sending the ball down the left wing was the best option we had

  21. Allow me to rave quietly and cautiously about Joe Willock.

    Secure in possession, confident in distribution, assertive in the tackle. Nothing excites me more than an Arsenal youngster coming through. He has goals, but not at this level yet. When he adds goals to his game (and I say he will), those of us who liked Aaron Ramsey will miss him less. Willock also has the capacity to be defensively tougher. And he turns 20 tomorrow.

    I know that Tim said to be cautious, but Im getting a tingle 🙂 We have a baller, folks. I have said that Im fine with Arsenal selling Iwobi, but if was a choice of him or Mhki, I’d have kept Iwobi, to maintain the homegrown vibe. Some of the youngsters we have in our stable excite me. Dont know yet about Reiss Nelson, but he’s technically sound and plays with a lot of intelligence. He just seems less physically assertive than Willock.

    1. This is only a silly statement, not to be read into as any sort of analysis, but I’m going to take the hype and turn it up to 11. There was a moment in the game vs Burnley where something about how he moved and passed reminded me of Zidane.

      It was only later I remembered that Zidane was reported to have liked Willock’s game (though I’m not sure that quote was real)

      So..We’ve got the next Zidane obviously.

      But more seriously, I think Willock ought to have played more last season when Ramsey was being kept out/went down with injury. I said so at the time too. Hopefully he continues to play and develop. It’s exciting to see a young player come through.

      I think Nelson needs a breakout performance to feel like he belongs at this level. He’s capable. I have a feeling ESR might overtake him at some point though.

      1. I have never gotten on board with Nelson for reasons I can’t put my finger on but I am driving the Saka hype train and stopping to pick up passengers whenever possible. I think the 3 players who have a chance to become a 1st team regular are Willock, ESR and Saka.

        1. Man, I really like Saka too. First time I saw him in a Europa game last season. Im a fully paid up passenger on that train, nyc.

          Reiss as I said doesn’t seem that physically assertive, and can go quiet in games, but his positioning and intelligence are pretty good. Boy did he take that offside goal well on Saturday.

          The Arsenal that Arsene built and the one that I hope remains in our DNA is the one that gives deserving youngsters a chance. And there’s something extra special about the ones who were with us as kids making it.

          I’ll be watching Iwobi, and hoping that he becomes a tremendous footballer at Everton.

          But Willock, man. How on earth was he behind Elneny till now? He will probably make way when Xhaka is fit, but he brings way more enegry, tackling and movement. One of the things I liked about Saturday was how energetic our midfield looked with Ceballos (23), Guendouzi (20), Willock (20 today) and Torreira (23). Liverpool will be a different proposition, though.

  22. just watched man u drop points lol.
    that pogba is proper crap why real madrid want him I don’t get it.
    ozil at £42 million gets slated every week pogba was over double that.

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