Predicting the League table is just fun and not meant to be taken seriously. Even the most scientific method struggles with “accuracy” because football is a game of fine margins and can be won or lost well against the supposed odds.
A good example to illustrate this is last season’s “expected points” table. Man City ran away with that metric totalling almost 91 expected points but that was well below the actual total of 98. Liverpool were 2nd both in xP and in real life but there was a pretty wide gap between expected points and real points, 83 expected and 97 real points.
Chelsea were third in xP with 71.45 and they got 72 points. But right on top of them were Tottenham (71 points) and Arsenal (70 points) and when we look at the expected points we see that there were six teams who had roughly the same expected points last season: Tottenham, Man U, Arsenal, Wolves, Everton, and Leicester. Those teams had between 55.54 xP to 61.86 xP but the difference in actual points was 52 to 71.
“This is why this metric is crap” you say and I say , uhhh sure there needs to be some refinement but you also have to know that Arsenal and Tottenham both hugely overperformed xG, xGA, and xGD last season. Tottenham had a goal difference of 28 and an xGD of just 12. Arsenal had a goal difference of 22 and an xGD of 7.
In Tottenham’s case, they overperformed defensively by 10 goals and in Arsenal’s case it was mostly offense (+8) but also the case that statistically, Emery’s Arsenal played worse xG defense last season than they did when the team quit playing under Wenger in his last season at Arsenal. The expected goals against for Wenger were 48.75 and for Emery were were expected to concede 57.3 goals.
Of course you can just discount all of these stats and say that the only stat you care about is the League table and that’s fair enough I guess. It’s well within your right to just say “I don’t like this method.” I have been known to do that very thing. Though I will say that “because I say so” isn’t going to convince many people of your position.
But all of this isn’t meant to “hammer” Emery – we all know his deficiencies and how the team struggled last year. Rather, what I’m saying is that I know why, I understand why, people say that they were worried that Wolves, Leicester, and Everton could come and take away top 6 from Arsenal: according to my eye test, backed up by xG, there was very little between those teams.
I think Arsenal got a bit lucky last year. We scored goals from outside, 11 from outside the box on 155 shots for a ridiculous 7% finishing rate, and we got 4 own goals. The last season under Wenger we scored 6 goals outside the box on 226 shots which is a much more normal finishing rate of ~3%. Also, we only scored 1 own goal that season.
But this is all old news! We know all about last season. We are on to a new season, with a ton of new players, including academy grads like Willock, Nelson, and Maitland-Niles. And already there are signs that Arsenal intend to address a number of deficiencies from last season in the transfer market: adding a dribbling wide forward in Pepe, adding a left back with the highest vertical leap on the team, bringing in a center mid in Ceballos, and buying a center back who can actually play football in David Luiz. And Arsenal will be getting Bellerin and Holding back soon. So, for the first time, Emery has a complete squad.
Questions will remain over Emery’s football. What is his philosophy? When will we start to pressure our opponents? Will we play in the low block again all season? But there is no doubt that Arsenal are stronger this year, much much stronger and I think Arsenal have to finish top four.
My top six prediction for this season is that Man City will actually get tired of playing Pep football and finish 2nd to Liverpool. Reports coming out of Manchester say that Pep is even more manic pixie dream girl this season than he has ever been. Guardiola can be draining on a team even at the best of times but after three seasons, his demands start to grate. They are still the best team in England. They have added another $100m worth of world class players. On paper, they should run away with the League. I’m going against the grain with this prediction.
I also predict that Arsenal, Man U, and Tottenham will fight for 3rd and 4th place with Arsenal finishing 3rd, Man U 4th, and Tottenham 5th. One caveat, Man U’s finish is dependent on keeping Pogba.
These three teams have very thin margins between them. The only reason I have Arsenal in 3rd is because I’m very positive about this team this season. By all other metrics we should probably finish 5th or 6th. So, I am literally saying “fuck it!” and making my own predictions! I will put Everton ahead of Leicester and Wolves this year in 6th. Again, fine margins.
So, my top six:
Liverpool
Man City
Arsenal
Man U
Tottenham
Everton
That’s it for today! Please argue below (respectfully) and make your own predictions!
Chelsea in relegation zone? ;o)
Why not aye…
Man city
Arsenal
Liverpool
Tothenham
Man U
ManC
Liv
Ars
Tot
Utd
Che
Eager to see how UE plays when the full team is available to him, it could still be the same way as he has played so far..
I have a lot of optimism this year. I also like us to finish third but I think Spurs will just slip by ManU for 4th. I think we will have some distance between us and the 4th place team. I don’t see City falling, although I think you make a sound argument that Pep is wearing thin. I say Pool is still 2nd. Wolves in 6th just ahead of Chelsea. And we will take that extra step to win Europa. This year it finally feels like we have depth, something we sorely lacked the last few seasons. Our midfield is younger, more dynamic and athletic than we’ve seen in a long time and I think we can endure the rigors of a long season much better than in the past. Let’s see how the young lads hold up.
City
Pool
Arsenal
Spurs
United
I think it could go any direction between Arsenal and Spurs. Maybe depends on whether or not key individuals like Auba or Kane get injured.
I think United overperformed yesterday. I don’t think that set of players can do that all year long.
And I think City is so much deeper than Liverpool that is going to make it a little more likely for them to repeat.
City
Pool
Us
Spuds
United
Blue Pool
I’m hoping the less taxing Europa League fixtures will give us a advantage over CL playing Spurs in regards to squad rotation.
Here’s to hoping anyway.
Fuck it. Arsenal for the League.
Liverpool
City
Tottenham
Arsenal
Chelsea
United
I think we need an upgrade on Xhaka to really push on. Unfortunately we are stuck with him because he is our most experienced CM at this point and even though there are more talented youngsters around him, they are not ready to displace him yet.
Spot on on Xhaka.
NYC – I think the opposte. By the end of the season Xhaka will not be in the starting XI, because Dani, along with maturing Willock, Guen and Torreira will have squeezed him out. Maybe I’m just brimming with optimism but what our youngsters lack in experience they make up for with athleticism and energy. We’ll see how they hold up, but Unai seems willing to let them get a chance. If we don’t crush them with too many minutes, I think they will shine.
I agree with you Xhaka sentiment.
I hope you are right LA. Would love to see that happen. Willock is a really promising player but we are not going to get the best out of him on the left flank as evidenced yesterday. He is much better centrally and defensively he is already way more switched on than I have ever seen from Xhaka.
I think you’re engaged in a Gibbs/Ox moment of mistaken identity, Nelson was very clearly deployed on the left, and Willock was behind Auba for their time on the pitch.
Yes, the left flank may not be the best home for him, but we will find a way to get him lots of minutes.
As the season goes on, I think it will become abundantly clear that Xhaka can’t play the transition game that Unai wants. It’s “kids for mids” this year. We will have growing pains but I’m guessing it will prove to be the biggest difference between last year and this one.
City and Spurs will finish above us. City because they have the complete team, and Spurs because their defence and midfield is stronger than ours, and they have the league’s best all-round striker. Kane has become a very clever footballer, as good a provider as he is a scorer. He can lash it from 25, he can poach, or he can win headers against big beast defenders.
Lampard will struggle, and I just cant read OGS… he consistently makes United seem less than the sum of their parts. Big year for Liverpool. They’ve been lucky with injuries. I wonder how they’d fare losing VVD for couple of months? I’m going to stick my neck out and say that they wont have as good a season as the last, and finish fourth. The expectations will be too high for them to cope. Teams are going to adjust to them accordingly. We got battered at Anfield, but should have beaten them at home.
So mine is…
City
Spurs
Us
Liverpool
This is not based on any metric except the eye test and hopefully some commonsense analysis. And I want to be proven embarrassingly wrong about Spurs.
I say you will be embarrassingly wrong!! 🙂 I think Poch is at the end of his time there. Unless they have an amazing run this year I think this year will be a step backwards. They can’t realistically challenge City and Pool for the Title, and they won’t repeat in CL. There’s nowhere for them to go. They’ve hit their ceiling. Poch wants, and will finally get, a chance to try for more somewhere else.
1) City – 96 pts
2) Liverpool – 89 pts
3) Spurs – 75 pts
4) Arsenal – 74 pts
5) Man Utd – 66 pts
6) Everton – 65 pts
FA Cup – City, League Cup – City, Champions League – Juventus
I think the race is over by early April. No way Liverpool repeats last season with just one loss. Spurs are pretty damn good, especially if they hold onto Erikson.
If we get to mid-70’s for points it will be an improvement because there will be less “luck” involved with it versus last season.
In a way if City dominates it will have a silver lining – the outrage at one team winning everything (again) by outspending everyone will be enormous and the good PR that City’s owners are always searching for will boomerang back on them. I see City getting a CL ban too, so this will be Guardiola’s final season and United are likely to get a CL spot by virtue of their rival’s misfortune.
I should have added; Europa League – Arsenal
Ain’t it hasty to bin Chelsea after just one game and that too against early season exuberant United at Trafford?
Nope. They lost their best creative player (Hazard), Lampard is a clown, and they have zero defenders. They are in rebuilding mode.
Amen
City will win. Pep is demanding, but I think all of them will want to three-peat. It won’t be 98 points, but they’ll win the league and it won’t be that close.
Liverpool will falter when they first run into trouble. VAR will affect them. How many offside winners did they score last season? 2nd.
I’m going to say ManU will be 3rd because Spurs will have a mini meltdown at some stage, and late in the season Poch will agree to join ManU.
Arsenal will have their own collapse in December-January, following which Emery will turn attention toward the Europa League, which we’ll win (unless it’s someone like Dortmund who drop down) We’ll finish 5th.
Everton 6th, Wolves 7th, Chelsea 8th.
Liverpool.city.chelsea.asernal
1) Liverpool (perpetual 6,7,8 finishers go top – Klopp has done wonders as well as solid business practices)
2) Manchest(er City (not too long ago always finishing 10th, oh what oil money can buy)
3, 4, 5, 6) Arsenal, Wolverhampton, Tottenham, Manchester United fight for positioning
7) Everton (reserves the right to switch Everton with Wolverhampton or Manchester United in the 3-6 race)
Yes, Chelsea is dropping like a rock… Someone tell us why Manchester City is in the same transfer ban dilemma?
Check that, why is Man City NOT in the same transfer ban situation. If there were 3 teams in all of Europe that blatantly spend more money than a gaggle of other top clubs, combined, it’s… Man City, PSG, and Real Madrid. FFP was never a thing that was ever going to actually work.
Wolves have to play in Europe. I have them falling out of contention for top 6 because of that.
My prediction, it’s more of a feeling actually based on our injury history – we would be extremely lucky to have the full team when Holding, Tierney and Bellerin comeback. It’s about 6 weeks away. I would be extremely pleased if no other starter gets injured by mid-Oct.
City
Pool
Spurs
Arsenal
United/Chelsea/Leicester/Wolves
City will be weaker this year, but less so than Pool who really overperformed last year. Pool in particular will tire, with no new legs and long seasons for key players.
Spurs look strong. That midfield will power them through. They have Eriksen and those key defenders for another year, though they will struggle at fullback.
Our summer business lifts us above the rest of the pack. It’s all on Emery now, because on paper this is a strong squad.
United and Chelsea both look weak in key areas. Too many unknowns, let’s see how it turns out.
I think Ndombele will be the buy of the season.
I think he peaked too early
We should be thankful that Man City cannot field their “B” team (Mourinho comment on Sky)because they could probably take 3rd behind Pool.
So much for levity.
City
Pool
S****
Then comes the fight for 4th between us, Chelsea, Man U and whichever team rises from the bottom such as a Wolves, Burnley or Everton.
Even though we won yesterday, that win is still clouded by the fact that we had too many errant passes in the first half, in our half of the pitch ( I’m looking at you Xhaka) which could have been punished by a better team. Chelsea in 19th place is amusing for now when one considers that Lampard chose Zouma over Luiz and Chelsea were a defensive debacle in their overall strategy. I would not get too excited either by Man U’s slaughtering of the lambs of Chelsea because Chelsea could have been beaten by a BHA or a Burnley just as easily.
So I hope we are still in the mix for 4th when all our signings and injured are ready, willing and able to join the fray.
I have always thought that Liverpool had a ceiling that was reached last year. They were a bit of an unknown and overperformed their expected points by a very high amount.
At the start oflast season, I thought that City would be the best team in England even if they didn’t win the league. I thought they had a superior squad to Liverpool’s, which I also thought had a weaker squad than Arsenal, Chelsea and United on paper, they were just a more balanced and better coached outfit that had players who suited what they wanted to do. On paper though, I would take a Sanchez, Pedro or Mkhi, over Origi. It is the same with the midfield and less so with the defence, but I thought their squad was just more purpose built than the rest of the sides other than City.
The biggest reason for me seeing City as the best though, was the difference in mentality of the two sides. Man City play in England the same way that Bayern, PSG, Juventus and Barcelona play in their respective leagues. They know how good they are, they know how much better they are and they seek to play as such anywhere they go. These teams do not care about home or away ground, they play to win every game, and dominatly so.
They are like a student who always aims to pass with a distinction on every exam, they know they are good enough to do it, they study to do it and prepare for it, so when the test comes along, failing isn’t even something that’s in their minds. Failing to pass with a distinction, they know they will probably end up with just a pass (3 points).
Liverpool are still inhibited a little bit. They hope to win at the top clubs and set up to not lose far more often than is necessary (Arsenal do that all the time now). They are more like an Atletico Madrid, a side that was purpose built and coached very well, but they do not really play like they
know they are better.
Liverpool are going into each game and trying to win, City know that they will win and they play like it. It could be considered as arrogant, but like Kevin Peterson once said, every sportsman must have a certain arrogance and ego to truly be great. Liverpool are held back by how they perceive themselves, thus their approach to games will let them down and that’s why I think City will probably lose more games than Liverpool again, but will win more points and convincingly so.
Picking Liverpool for the league this year. I’m backing them because they did us a solid by winning the CL, ensuring S&$rs are still in our shadow. I just believe they’ll find a way to pip past Pep’s Borg-like all devouring cyborg football machine.
That leaves the Abu Dhabi Emir in 2nd and I think it will be an3-4 team fight for 3rd and 4th place between, Man U, S-#rs, Chelsea and The Arsenal.
No player can replace Hazard in the Premier League so that leaves Chelsea a bit adrift.
Man U proved fallible toward the end of last season.
Tottenham are a wildcard capable of, sorry to say, some really good football but who knows.
Meanwhile, Arsenal have had the best summer business in years for us and better than any of the above. If those incoming players come good and we stay relatively healthy, 3rd place.
If not, another close miss for 4th and the end of the Emery era after two seasons.
Well, my stoopid guesstimate before the season was Arsenal to get 70pts (then we made those signings and I hmm and haa’d and kinda kept with 70).
However if we drop out of the EL then that could go up by maybe 5pts.
My feeling is that our ‘1st team’ is strong on paper, but the bench to me feels a bit less experienced/ deep (kinda the reverse of our first game). But I am excited by those younger players. If everyone was fit and Emery figures it out/get’s lucky we could be *very* good.
But I cannot imagine BOTH Chelsea and Man U having a bad year.
I think we’ll do well to tough it out to 4th.
It’ll be easier if we drop out of EL.
I think an interesting #narrative will be how we use the ‘kids’. This week Emery was praised for using players like Nelson and Willock but (for me) that was an easy decision based on their fitness. Emery didn’t seem to trust using youth in EL so his use of them there and maybe in FA Cup may either be him on board with the ‘player transition process’ working with Freddie or him doing it but being uncomfortable and not doing it well but using it as a shield to say “well, I’m out of that cup but you wanted me to integrate kids etc”.
This may weirdly work in our favour as a way to focus on simply getting as many points in the PL as possible. My feeling is we’ll need every bit of luck and following wind to get 4th.
But, last week I thought we’d lose against Newcastle (1st game, unfit players and thin in defence etc) but we won so…. WE’RE GONNA WIN THE LEAGUE !!!
{ahem}
;¬)
Till Unai Emery figure out his best style or system of play, we may not be able to finish higher than 4th place. I believe Man City will win it again Liverpool closely following them. Spurs may( I hope not) take the 3rd position. Arsenal 4th
I see us making top 4 but only the 4th spot and winning Europa once Emery’s system is adopted. This is a squad to over achieve with.
So you’re retracting your assessment of Lampard as “probably a decent coach” from a few weeks ago? And Guardiola is like a more positive version of Mourinho?
Where did I say that?
City, Pool, Spurs, Man U( if Pogba stays), Arsenal, Chelsea.
1.City are too deep and Pep is a maniac.
2. Klopp is also a maniac but they have just lost Alison and lack City’s depth.
3.Spurs and Poch are just better than Arsenal and have been on their path much longer, and media and refs seem to like them.
4.Man U bought well and even though OGS won’t do anything spectacular, he won’t harm them either , and the league seems to like them too.
5. Arsenal have improved but not enough to close the gap on City and Pool.
It will be fine margins against Spurs and United for the top four but the long term injuries and relatively late arrivals unable to hit the ground running, and the PGMO ‘s fat little finger on the scale , might just prove decisive.
6. Chelsea still have the talent to be in the mix but Hazard leaving has to make a difference.
Just to clarify, I don’t think there’s a league-wide, anti-Arsenal conspiracy , but in a case of such fine margins the relative ease with which refs give out yellow cards against our players in comparison with others, just might make a difference over the length of a season.
I’d go further and say there may not be an organized conspiracy but there IS a regular bias by referees in allowing nasty play against us by lesser teams to go unpunished (or under-punished), presumably in an effort to even out the playing field, or because of some personal dislike (Mike Dean).
Re your ManU evaluation, I think you’re being generous. I watched the Chelsea game and thought the Moaners were lucky to win, even though the final score was emphatic. It took a gift of a first half penalty to get them going at all, and while Chelsea looked disorganized at times, they could easily have had two goals of their own. I think both these teams will struggle and can’t see either of them finishing above us. I go for a top 6 of Citi, Pool, Arse, Spuds, Wolves, Everton. May It Be So…
I agree United were lucky to win that game but I’m not assessing their chances on this game alone.
OGS might be just about average as coaches go but he did get a 1.9 points per game return from his 21 games in charge last season.
They lost Lukaku but I don’t think they will miss him much, and they did strengthen their back line with proven PL talent.
There’s absolutely no reason why OGS won’t match his average from last season which would give them a 74 points total.
Can Arsenal fans say with a straight face Emery can better that total , when he’s still experimenting with his squad because some would be starters are either injured or not ready for the season?
I can’t.
If Pogba stays I can definitely see United finish above Arsenal.
Well , I shouldn’t say Emery can’t get more than 74 points , of course he can and I hope he will, but I have my doubts.
And there’s still this whole Ozil Kola situation which probably isn’t helping matters either.
I readily admit my prediction is based more on heart than head. That’s why I rarely bet with real money. But OGS just doesn’t convince me for some reason. Yeah, they went on an 8-game (or whatever) winning run when he took over, but I chalk that up to the new manager bump (or post-Mourinho exultation), after which they looked very ordinary. And Pogba still seems unsettled, which after last season’s clown show can only continue to undermine the dressing room.
Agree on Emery though. He hasn’t been all that convincing, either with tactics or with getting the best from his players. But if we’re spared the usual injury crises I can easily see us finishing top 4.
I don’t see the top two changing. Both are a class above the opposition, at the moment. Where Arsenal finish obviously depends on how the new signings fit in and how often Xhaka plays, imo he is the weak link for us, even moreso than Mustafi. If the new guys live up to expectations we could snatch 3rd place, if not I think 5/6 is best we can hope for. As for the rest Spuds and Chelski to finish above Un**ed.
Man City
Liverpool
Tottenham
Arsenal
Too hard to predict us this season.
On the one hand we have Ceballos, Luiz, Pepe and Tierney, who may take time to bed in, or may improve us instantly.
On the other hand we have the situation with Kolasinac and Ozil, and we have injured players to return.
On the third hand we have a thick tier of players like Mkhi, Chambers, Xhaka, Guen, Torreira and of course Musti if he stays around, who can play well but can also underperform. A lot will depend on how well they do, and one of Emery and co’s most important jobs is to raise the performance of this group.
And alongside them we have the yoof. Willock, Nelson Gabrielli, Saka etc. (AMN for me is an established first team player now). I love to see them getting minutes but they are going to be inconsistent, make mistakes, and at times they will struggle to have an impact.
I can see a best case scenario where we steer clear of injuries; Sokratis / Luiz / Chambers / Holding are solid; Bellerin and Tierney carve it up; the midfield works hard; Ceballos / Ozil create; and the world-class front three really click. If that happens I think it would be wild – we would challenge Pool and Spurs for second quite easily, maybe more.
I can also see a scenario where we keep running into the same old problems, weaknesses and inconsistencies, Leno reverts to the mean, and we end up 5th. My optimism gland won’t let me go lower than that.
It’s cool though, because the uncertainty is going to keep us guessing all season. The Arsenal Enigma continues.
I would rather watch than predict. This seems like a season where injuries will define what happens and Liverpool has taken the first hit.
Head to head games in the top 6 will be a certain indicator of ascension this season. Spurs might not make the Champions League next season. People forget they slipped at the same time we did, and they haven’t strengthened defensively.
i won’t predict the order but the best 3 teams in england are man city, liverpool, and tottenham and the table will show that come the end of the season. they all have very decent depth and they all know what their coach wants on the field.
arsenal overachieved last season so the best we can likely expect is a repeat, which will be an improvement but without so much luck. i don’t want to speculate on man united or chelsea as they have new managers. wolves and everton are proper threats to champions league positions as i think their managers are better than ours. arsenal bought well but the biggest problem is still in the cdm position. i’m not a fan of xhaka or torreira. we’ll see.
as for the game on sunday, i thought the young guys did okay but arsenal missed the creativity of mesut ozil. emery managed the young guys well as their substitutions were incredibly timely when their levels dropped. the new guys struggled to make a mark in the game as the speed of the game seemed to surprise them. i thought calum chambers was very good and when holding comes back, chambers should replace xhaka at cdm.
getting holding and hector back while playing chambers and david luiz in the double pivot might prove interesting.
I’m surprised there hasn’t been more commentary (in the media in general) on the ozil and kola matter. How deep rooted are the problems of violence that it can shatter even the protective cocoons of a multibillion dollar, internationally televised industry?
it seems they’ve landed in the middle of a gang war and it’s really unfortunate. however, i really don’t know what’s going on. i do hope it’s resolved soon so that those young men can resume their lives. however that’s unlikely.
Why spurs 5th. They have great midfielders