Is this the season Arsenal get back into top four?

Bullet list points for my argument:

  • Arsenal appear to be addressing almost every area of need in terms of team construction
  • Man U are quickly devolving into a joke of a team
  • Chelsea have a transfer ban and have lost their main creative force
  • Threats could come from Everton, Wolves, and Leicester though it looks like Arsenal have spent wisely to stay ahead of those clubs

Do you ever look at someone on the street and just wonder “what the hell are you doing?” I had one of those this morning. Someone was doing a u-turn in reverse and stopped both lanes of traffic. I think they were backing out of their driveway and wanted to go south but I mean, for most of us, I think we would have just drove around the block, rather than back across two lanes of traffic.

The thing is that once I see someone pull a stunt like that, I give them a wide berth. No telling what wild thing they might pull next.

For the last few years at Arsenal it feels like we were doing a u-turn in reverse. And a lot of supporters are, rightly, wary of Arsenal at the moment. The latest Q&A session, the #WeCareDoYou movement, and even on Twitter among my friends who tend to be a mix of positive and negative there has been a lot of gallows humor this season. But given the business we are doing this year, I have to admit that I’m fairly optimistic (as of this date 7/29/19) that Arsenal could crack the top four this season.

The first bit of good news is that Arsenal have addressed several key areas of the pitch in the transfer market. Arsenal struggled to score from wide areas and we have been missing a creative dribbler since Alexis went to United to continue his one man act “the Most Frustrated Man in Football.”

Arsenal have also failed to replace Santi Cazorla for the last three seasons. Instead relying on Xhaka and a gang of various talents who for different reasons were never able to replicate Cazorla’s vision and ability to get the ball forward quickly. But there are hints that Ceballos might be that man and even if it’s just a one year loan, getting into the top four could afford us the money to buy him or another player of his type.

But of course the big problem is the defense. Blaming everything on Mustafi is tiresome and I think that Arsenal’s main problem is that the team don’t defend well and don’t control games the way that a good club should. This exposes Mustafi and Sokratis too often. It exposes everyone too often.

I watched Reign FC yesterday and they had a similar problem to Arsenal: they just didn’t have any control in midfield. They were ostensibly playing out from the back but that just meant that the keeper passed to a CB who thumped it long almost every play. I started keeping track of how often the central MFers touched the ball and noted just 10 touches between them in a 30 minute period. Almost all of those touches were passing back to the CBs.

And in defense, they lacked organization, were easily pulled apart, forgot their markers, and Chicago put 4 past them. Basic stuff like controlling the game in midfield, marking your opponent, pressuring your opponent, all lost. It was a harsh scoreline but it could have been worse.

Arsenal aren’t that bad but those similar problems crop up. Instead of the CBs launching long balls like Reign FC, Xhaka does it for Arsenal. That’s our main method of progressing the ball. And our defense is almost comical for the way it loses track of players.

Injuries don’t help. Bellerin is a significant upgrade on Maitland-Niles. Not just for his defense but also his ball control and ability to play higher up the pitch, pinning the defenders back. Getting him back healthy immediately improves Arsenal. And Rob Holding is a significant upgrade on Mustafi.

But the even better news is that Arsenal are looking for more defenders. Snr. Emery said so himself in the post-match press conference yesterday. And if Arsenal can get in another CB and maybe even a LB (they are still confident of getting Tierney) you would have to admit that the last two summers have seen Arsenal attempt to address almost every weakness in the squad: they signed a DM in Torreira, a wide forward in Pepe, several center backs, a new keeper, and a cazorla-replacement.

Credit to the Brian Trust for all that.

But top four isn’t won in isolation. Back in the olden days (when I first started following Arsenal and my beard was more red than grey) the Premier League was a two club race but now there are legit six teams who can challenge for just 4 champions League places: Man City, Man U, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Tottenham.

I see Man City winning the League for as long as they want, honestly. They just signed my favorite midfielder of the last four years in Rodri and seem to go from strength to strength every season. Liverpool might make another challenge to them and could even win it. But I have them as seconds.

Tottenham also upgraded their midfield with Ndombele. He’s a real talent and already slotting right in under Pochettino. So, I have them at third, unless they lose Son on an injury.

That leaves three teams for 4th: Chelsea, Man U, and Arsenal. I have Arsenal best placed to take it. It’s going to be a tough year for Chelsea. They lost Hazard who was almost their entire offense. And Frank Lampard is probably a decent coach but I’m not sure how he’s going to get that club scoring goals. Christian Pulisic is often touted by Americans as a great player but I’ve watched him for years and never seen much more than slightly above average. He’s a huge downgrade on Hazard.

Meanwhile, Manchester United seem to have entered into their own banter era! Solskjaer is not a good manager and all of the top talent wants to leave. Should they be in top four? Yes, they spend money at the same level as Man City – heck they should be challenging for titles. But by my calculations they could finish as low as 7th this season. Never underestimate the drag of a team that doesn’t want to play for a manager.

So, what about challenges from Everton, Leicester, and Wolves. They are real. If Arsenal had stood pat this season I would be worried. But Arsenal have invested and invested in some top talent. i think it’s enough to push us higher, especially if Unai gets that CB he wants.

It could be a close one between Arsenal and one of these five teams. That’s how I’m looking at this season’s top four: three teams who I feel are pretty much a lock for top four and six teams who are pushing for the 4th spot. But if Arsenal can complete the business that they are promising in this transfer window, I feel like Arsenal should finish top four.

Qq

70 comments

  1. So I suppose we should all be most grateful that Crystal Palace overpriced Zaha by an extent which forced Arsenal to sign Pépé instead?

  2. Yep, that’s where I’m at as well.

    I’m heartened to hear rumors of our interest in Rugani, and that Emery explicitly mentioned a central defender as a target position this window. If we get Tierney and a CB on top of the deals already done, then this will have been an unbelievably successful summer in terms of addressing key areas that have long languished.

    When we were polled a couple of months ago about how many transfers we predicted, I went with two — three tops. I was further cynical that we’d actually address our defense, and that we’d rely solely on youth or lesser existing lights to meet the needs. If you had told me in May that we’d be signing Nicolas freakin’ Pepe, I’d have laughed. In fact, I did laugh when I read an Arseblog News report saying as much in early June.

    Anyway, still work to be done, but highly encouraging.

  3. The thing Im hedging with is our loss of spirit and fight when we hit a rough patch. We go to pieces… individual games, stretches of games. I still have nightmares about our end of season finish. wtf was that?

    Who, in this team, old or new, is going to address that?

    United may be bad, but I promise you on game day that we’ll make them look like Barcelona.

    Sorry to be a Debbie.

    1. Yes, this is also true. Any optimism for 4th has to be based partly on faith. Faith that what we saw at the end of last season was a one-off that was itself the result of a number of circumstances unique to that period. Some of those circumstances have been (or will be) resolved through new signings and returns from injury. We must remember the team were so, so close to fourth (and third!) last season, even while enduring catastrophic form in the latter half of the season.

      But your point about mentality is a good one, and who knows how that will be addressed. Ozil looks happy these days, so maybe he and Emery have a better working relationship? That can only help. Maybe it will help to have a slightly different set of heads and temperaments this season (including Ljungberg, reports about whom are terrific). To have players who have just that bit more understanding — one year on — of how Emery wants them to play (and function in the squad).

      Intangibles here.

      And yes, we also have to hope that Emery has learned some lessons after his first year in the Premier League. Results against fellow top-sixers were actually decent last season (at least, better than in previous seasons), but we found it difficult at times against the lower teams. I don’t know why. I hope Emery knows why.

      Yet, even considering these intangibles or negatives, I think the case for 4th is still stronger than 5th or 6th. New players, key players returning from injury, players like Torreira and Guendouzi now PL habituated, and yes, the distinct possibility that Lampard and Solskjaer will be found out!

      I’ll put forward another reason for hope: Playing more of the youngsters in the early stages of the Europa League, as Emery has suggested he will do. That is, one possible contribution to our end-of-season collapse last year was exhaustion. Emery was very conservative in how he used the squad in non-PL competition, preferring to use more of the first team than he should have. I think this was understandable given that he was new to the club, and, from what I’ve heard / read, Emery doesn’t naturally gravitate to young players outside the first team. This is where Ljungberg comes in. Let’s rest more of the first team and give some our promising young talent good runs in the Europa, FA, and League Cup games.

      1. I’d add that it’s also a pretty big worry that we won a lot of points early on when Arsenal were hugely overperforming. I think we were +12 pts up to April. From 1 April to the end of season we hit 10 expected points and got 10 points in the League.

        So, there is a real worry there that Emery is the problem and that he was getting lucky in the start of the season.

        1. Yes, there is still a question mark over Emery. I have more sympathy for him than others, including you, but I don’t deny he’s got a lot to prove this coming season.

          1. Yeah, it was kind of hard because the injury problems with Bellerin and Holding. I guess we don’t have to rehash those arguments.

            I wonder why you have so much sympathy for him other than those two things? And is it sympathy or empathy?

          2. In a word: context. I’d like us to put more stock in that for the time being. It’s sort of like how I gave Wenger ample time during the penury of post-stadium-build, debt-managing Arsenal, and, in fact, that context made me appreciate his achievements more in those years. In the case of Emery, I think there are a number of contextual factors that should mitigate our judgment of 2018-2019: adaptation period, a few really serious injuries to key players, saddled with a squad that had glaring deficiencies (and still managed to finish with more points than the previous season), no money made available in Jan for strengthening (even when we looked badly depleted), trying to implement a tactical approach on a squad used to improvisational jazz, entering as coach in a year in which the club went through arguably the most seismic transition in its history, Ozil, Ramsey, mess, etc.

            I wonder, too, what he thought when he was told Lichtsteiner would be the back-up to Bellerin! Making a silk Maitland-Niles out of a midfielder’s ear probably wasn’t an easy order. To take one example. (Even though Emery arrived after Lichtsteiner, I know some will argue that he gave the ok on it before he was appointed. Who knows. Though, given the new management structure, I’m skeptical Emery was consulted about Mislintat’s recommendations prior to his appointment.)

            Maybe ‘sympathy’ was the wrong word. Patience? All things considered? Big picture? I’ll add a personal note that might disclose motivation: For years and years I defended Wenger and Arsenal (here and on many other forums) against the short-termism of other fans who ridiculed us for our approach to sustainability and success. And yet, this same short-termism seems to be in evidence when fans demand Emery’s head after a single year as coach…in a transition year at that, and dealing with the factors mentioned above. I’m not saying this aspect of my opinion is justified. This is me being full disclosure. For example, I spent a lot of time making fun of Chelsea, Abramovich, and their fans, for their lack of patience with managers. It was a ‘value’ based critique and yes, it was subjective. Chelsea fans could point to the ‘might is right’ argument, and I’d be left holding onto a thin thread of morality that doesn’t seem to exist in modern football, and maybe never has. Now, ironically (given the ‘Arsenal values’ discussions these days), patience is in short supply. All I’m calling for is more than one year before write-off. I feel that’s modest!

            For me, and for the reasons mentioned above, Emery gets a pass on 2018-2019.

  4. If you were to ask me if we have a squad capable of top 4 I’d say yes. If you were to ask me do we have a Manager who can utilise that squad to make top 4 I’ll say no. I’ve seen no evidence Emery can organise a defence or attack creatively. Additionally he tends to stifle creative play/players, wilt under pressure and there were serious signs at the end of last season that key players had lost faith in him. If I was a gambling man I put money on him not seeing the season out as the ££ the club is investing to make top 4 will apply a level of pressure I don’t feel he can hack. I truly hope I’m wrong but that’s my gut feel.

    1. Tim and I have already bet an ice-cream cone on this. I think Emery will last the season, Tim thinks December. If we start this season as poorly as we finished the last one, then I hope Tim wins that bet.

      1. Ha 😂 An ice cream cone. I’d hope if/when he tanks its earlier rather than later in the season. I do think he was very lucky to keep his job and I think he knows this too. It was good to hear from the execs recently that the coach’s job is very performance related as this language has been missing in the past.

  5. It’s a prolix day for me. I make no apologies. I’m back from travels!

    So, more words:

    It’s going to be a big year for…Torreira. Or, put another way, I fervently hope it’s going to be a big year for Torreira. Thought he looked gassed and injury-niggled after Jan, and he’s talked about adaptation troubles last season, but there were glimpses of his qualities — ones we’ve needed for a long time — and I really, really hope (fervently, even) he’s sharp, comfortable, and consistent this season.

    Finally (for now!): L’Equipe reporting today on Monaco’s interest in Mustafi. Now, despite my tirade earlier today, I agree with Tim that it’s lazy to blame all our misfortunes on one player (and I appreciated Claude’s and Joshua’s take on him in the previous thread); but his position at the club has become untenable. His fellow players don’t trust him (one even joked about his errors on social media) and the fans have turned on him. He’s not as bad as the panic-driven, Palace-game-obsessed hordes (of which I am a member) would have you believe, but he’s at a place now that reminds me of last-act Eboue. Everything he does will be bad. Nothing he does well will be noticed. That’s toxic. It’s also unfortunate. But we should really try to sell him if we can. If we don’t or can’t (and remember, all I can think of is that Palace game) then we need to support him. Seriously. No booing. That’s going to make his performances worse, and we need the opposite to happen. I was really disheartened to hear the fans booing him when he came on as a substitute against Lyon. That’s just sad.

      1. Which is probably more Gallas than Mustafi but, it feels like Mustafi has checked out mentally…

  6. I couldn’t agree more. Given the strike force that we have now, (Pepe included), we could make life difficult for all teams; Man City included. The key issue therefore is do we have the manager to effectively utilize these assets. I unfortunately don’t put our manager in the same class as those of; Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham.

    As Tim suggested, our problems on defense is due – in part – to lack of proper coaching which didn’t start under this manager. The “invincible” defense got that good because of the work done by Graham with his method of repeated drillings. So, even this group of defenders can get better.

    I would bet that given this strike force, Arsene Wenger would definitely make top four and with luck might even do better.

    1. agree with knobby below; the only invincible from the george graham era was ray parlour.

    2. I have seen and heard about Arsene’s successes being because of Graham’s defence a lot, but that Invincibles defence was all his. It is even more impressive that he did that with a striker and central midfielder as centerback and right back, respectively.

      Arsene’s side was also the second best defence in the premier league for goal conceded from 2013 to 2017, while we also had a centerback partnership that didn’t lose a game for an entire year when played together (Mertesaker and Koscielny).

      Arsenal also reached the final of the champions league with a make shift defence consisting of players currently seen as jokes by many, and only conceding 2 goals on the way to the final. That’s 2 goals in 12 games.

      So the whole Arsene Wenger never having built or coached his own defence well is an annoying myth. He made many mistakes, he didn’t adjust while the football around him changed, he became very risk averse and stuck to his principles too strongly, while showing too much loyalty to many players who were letting him down or just not good enough.

      The man had many flaws, but he was a great coach. Not just because he won trophies, but tactically, he is the most underated coach I have ever known. His teams played football so beautifully and full of such mesmeric parttens at times that it was unbelievable that it was all derived from a tactical system. No matter where in the world you can go to, no matter how many amazing players you have and no matter how much you try to recreate Arsene’s drills (which are a very well kept secret that I wish I could see), no one can replicate Wengerball.

      The man had many flaws, but he was and I hope still is, a tactical genius.

      1. agreed. my criticism, if any, is that wenger didn’t make individual players better defenders.

  7. Fourth is very reasonable for us. Short of injuries, I don’t see huge obstacles. If out defense can learn to defend long balls over the top, we have a fighting chance. I have no reason to expect our XG or actual goals to decrease. If we aren’t better in XGA then the manager does need to go. Especially if we get Tierney and a CB. No excuses. As I’ve opined many times, I don’t love Emery, or his tactics, but I think coaching Arsenal last year was a nightmare for whoever had the job. He has a lot to prove.

  8. Seems Arsenal blogs I frequent are now deciding Mustafi has been ground down to a nub. Fine. There’s only so much resolution of angst in continually berating him.

    Til I read this: ‘But top four isn’t won in isolation.’
    And I’ll counter with: ‘But it can be lost individually.’

    Agreed with the less-than state of affairs in midfield. Certainly would have helped to have more than Ramsey to sustain possession and advance the ball forward with regularity.

    But it wasn’t the MF’s issues that led to Mustafi gifting 7pts (not goals, points!) to Palace (5), Spurs (2) in three matches. With only a half-brained CB instead? Arsenal makes third. Easily. Arsenal would have been coasting into that latter part of the season when the wheels came off. Likely would not have– had confidence been higher.

    So? While it’s now the rage to forgive Mustafi for his sins? I just can’t rewind last season to reconsider– without going there first. Just irredeemable at this late date.

    1. I don’t think anyone is giving him a pass. It’s just that there is nothing new to say, everyone’s pretty clear on the issue and there’s no need ad most of all no use to flog a dead horse.

      1. Sure. But the horse remains alive. Nearly indestructible. With no evidence we are leaving the stable door ajar to entice it to wander off.

  9. I know that top 4 is the primary objective for Emery and the club, but for me, I would like to see the beginning of a process to define what Arsenal is going to be post Arsene. The changes in the boardroom, academy and technical team were already being built or put in place even before Arsene left, but the biggest contribution that Arsene made to the club was to give us an identity on the pitch and to a lesser extent, off the pitch too.

    I love the way we have signed in the past summer and the winter before that, and this summer is a continuation of what I can only describe as smart moves in the market. Our signings are consistent in bringing young, exciting, developing and hungry players, while pressure is finally coming from up top to provide the academy products with game time. I absolutely love it, except one thing still has me a little bit confused………. The Coach!

    I have belief that we will get top 4 this season, not because he would have gotten the most out of this side, but because we have more balance, structure and less uncertainty in our side than the other top 4 contenders. From what I see, the signings aren’t being made for him, neither was Torreira or Guendouzi. This side is being built to become contenders, and I think a coach who can come in and place a set the fundamental principles of what Arsenal as a club will play like, we will never get the most out of the team.

    I always thought a coach like Eddie Howe or Marcelo Bielsa would have been perfect for the club. Eddie Howe, to become a long term option that has a set way of playing that is already thriving in the league (defensively and attacking wise too) and his ability to improve British players, and we have a very talented group of young players coming up from our academy and being signed as well. Marcelo Bielsa to lay down a blueprint for the morden way of playing football, because almost all the top teams and top coaches are playing football that has his influences. He is very good at pushing his style and imprinting it on a side too ridiculous levels, but that allows us to then hire coaches after him accordingly because they will not need too much work to do in making the players adopt their style.

    Either way, I know that Emery doesn’t necessarily use wingers, so a signing like Pepe isn’t being made by or for him, it’s looking beyond his tenure that I really don’t see extending beyond this season. I say that because he is bad at coaching a defence. A lot of people went at Arsene for not coaching the defence, and yes he might not have been giving out instructions on how to defend, but the best way to teach a player is to drill what you want from them on the training ground and not by merely talking. I don’t see how Emery could improve our defence, if he doesn’t know what our basic form of playing is.

  10. I just hope we don’t rely on xhaka as much, he’s decent enough although his limitations are well documented and I believe (haven’t looked at the stats) that he is one of the ever presents when we capitulate especially against aggressive teams who don’t give us time.

    My bigger worry is the state of flux Xhaka causes, his inclusion means torriera is pushed up which doesn’t suit him at all and we lose tempo.

    I’d rather see a pivot of torriera and guendouzi or ceballos and build from there, perhaps a midfield 3 of those 3 for some games. Xhaka for me only suits certain games and cannot be at the base whilst we have slow CB’s and pushed up full backs. Xhaka himself let alone in the team is an imbalance.

  11. the incentive for finishing in the top 4 is, obviously, to play in the champions league. arsenal can’t merely set top 4 as a goal. they have to try and win the league. even when wenger began to declare the top 4 as a trophy, he always said the goal was to try and win the championship. this is why arsenal always finished in the top four. the champions league is for teams trying to be champions, not for teams trying to finish in the top 4. focus on winning the championship and champions league qualification will take care of itself.

    1. This is precisely the mistake we made last summer that cost us this season – trying to finish top 4 instead of retooling for a real title push.

      Emery did very well to get as close as he did and reach a European Final. We should continually be on the lookout for the next great coach (I hope we’re building a project that will attract someone like Erik ten Hag) but I like a lot of what Emery’s done and have little doubt we’ll be much more effective this year if this summer’s squad regeneration stretches to a CB and Tierney.

  12. the biggest impediment for arsenal maximizing their potential is bad management. however, that’s not what i’m talking about today. i’ve always said that unless arsenal improve at the cdm position, it matters little who arsenal signs in other positions.

    cdm is the most important position on the field. he has to have exceptional decision making skills, awareness, communication, experience winning tough games, and the ability to effectively control a game. these are the only traits that matter at cdm. everything else about a cdm is nonsense.

    how big (or small) he is, how fast, how good of a tackler, how good in the air, how well he hit’s a long ball, how well he shoots from distance, etc. does not matter. what matters is he’s got to be the smartest guy on the pitch, full stop. as long as granit xhaka is the cdm, arsenal chances of success will always be undermined.

    understand, you have to have talent to play at the top level. however, if you look at arsenal’s best cdm’s, from petit, gilberto, arteta, and cazorla, they all had their own technical gifts. these qualities made them unique but they were also the smartest guys on the field and knew how to win tough games.

    1. I agree with your comment and to add to your point, I think you are trying to say that the deepest player in midfield must be the most tactically intelligent player on the pitch. By that I mean that he must be the best decision maker and have the ability to act upon such decisions. It doesn’t matter if he is more defensive or possession oriented, but he must be able to read the game and adjust the flow of the game to benefit his side.

      I have used Arteta to teach a lot of young players about playing in midfield. Body shape when receiving the ball, first touch to set your self up for a pass or shot, awareness of your surroundings, controlling the tempo of the game by speeding it up or slowing the game down when necessary, spreading play by picking the right type of pass (floating, drilled, through ball, etc) and most importantly for midfielders, providing the attacker with the ball in the areas where they can cause the most damage.

      Guendouzi and Torreira, together, have those qualities while Torreira is more combative than Arteta or Santi.

      A point that I think is severely underestimated is the tactical set-up by the coach and how it impacts players performances. The best players in the central defensive midfield role have always thrived under more progressive, front footed and protagonistic football set-ups. Each and every one of them, be they Pirlo, Busquets, Petit, Santi, Pjanic, Derossi, Fabinho, Dembele, Matic, Fernandinho, Casemiro, Rodri, …etc.

      So, I think tlented midfielders will struggle under Emery beyond the halfway line. He can coach getting the ball out from the goalkeeper and beating the initial press, but he is too restrictive and inflexible when it comes to playing in the opposition half and that can and did influence the performances of a very talented frontline.

      On the CDM role, we might have the player we need in our side without knowing it. Everyone was an unknown until they got the right set-up that suited them, and then they thrived. So maybe signing a player for that role might help, but we could also get more out of what we have from a better or more defined way of playing.

      1. Agree with these points about the importance of the CDM role. It’s not a surprise that Xhaka’s arrival has seen us miss top 4 every season. As good as he is, our rivals have found more effective systems without employing a player with Xhaka’s profile (I might be wrong on that – Gundogan maybe?)

        I’d like to push back a little on the idea that Emery has an inherently restrictive coaching flaw in terms of midfield play.

        It’s true that under Emery Arsenal don’t attack as much through the Zone 14, or “Golden Square” area in front of the opposition’s 18-yrd box. Because this is an area of the pitch where elite playmakers like Ozil thrive, it helps explain his difficulties adapting to Emery.

        But the problem with Zone 14- focused attacks is, in the modern game even mid-table Premier League teams are expertly-drilled in defending that area. Wolves and Nuno Espirito Santo are probably the best example of this – it’s been the bedrock of their solid performances.

        What Emery’s trying to do is develop how we attack the half-spaces, because attacking from there destabilises defences set-up to block Zone 14. Some of the most talented players in the league attack from there like De Bruyne and Salah. Time will tell whether Emery can find the right balance, but with Ozil’s intelligence, a genuine wide threat in Pepe, and youth players blessed with natural dribbling ability, we should be much less predictable and much more effective offensively this season.

        1. I see your point on attacking through the half spaces, the congestion in the 14 zone ad the role of the #10 type of playmaker. so I will address each by itself in the following points:

          1. The half spaces are becoming the most vulnerable areas on the pitch for teams playing with 4 at the back because they put players in positions that do not have any designated markers, thus pulling players out of position. The use of 3 at the back has grown to deal with this threat by placing direct markers in the half spaces. Unfortunately for us, Emery is very dribble averse and our use of the half spaces is pretty basic compared to the top sides. Tactically, we just have players there to slide passes to the on rushing fullbacks, rather than using he half spaces to create proper confusion in the opposition. Against Emery’s Arsenal, teams just have to use their body shape or aggressive man oriented marking to direct the half space player out wide, where Iwobi and Mkhi will become useless, along wit the fullbacks who don’t under lap to create different kinds of overloads.

          2. The 14 zone hasn’t been abandoned in favour of the half spaces, intelligent players and coaches have found new ways to implement their styles of play by adapting to the oppositions plans. The 14 zone is no longer the area where the most action takes place, but it is important to note that the movement of the ball to create the space needed in the half spaces, requires the ball to move through the 14 zone rather than the U-shaped passing that we are so familiar with. the ball moving into the 14 zone and quickly moving out creates panic and hesitation in a defence and leads to individual mistakes from the opposition. Right now we are like a boxer that has a very good left hook and spends the whole fight swinging it alone. Players like Ozil are your jab, they allow you to set up that hook and ensures that your hook is more effective and unpredictable. So the 14 zone allows you to stretch play on both flanks, by only playing in the half spaces, you allow the opposition movement to be more synchronized and allow them to crowed out your attackers.

          3. The 14 zone isn’t where Ozil plays at all and that is a common confusion among’st fans because they see him as inflexible. Ozil plays more in the half spaces and out wide, exchanging positions and creating overloads, along with his movement during transitions. Ozil spends far more time on the wings than in the middle. Ozil’s assists also show that he creates from out wide rather than through the center, and I hope you are trying to think of any Ozil assists that you remember or watch some, and you will notice this. So Ozil isn’t unsuited to Emery’s system because he just doesn’t play through the middle, but because his team is restricted in shape, movement and tactics when the team crosses the midfield. That is why Ozil was so terrible in the Europa final, who was gonna help him overload the wide areas when the team shape remains the same.

          Its not even about the formation for me, we can change that as many times as possible but that doesn’t mean you are tactically flexible. Like I always say, formations are just the structures within which tactics can be implemented.

          1. It’s an interesting discussion, but I’m assessing what the coach is trying to do – not passing judgement on it. We’re early in the process for that. It’s one thing to assess, it’s another to label something an “inherent trait” of the manager.

            Ozil doesn’t play *solely* in Zone 14, and I didn’t say he did. I said playmakers like him thrive in those areas. His overall number of passes made from that area decreased significantly from Wenger’s last season, and increased in Zone 11 (the area in front of halfway). That’s not a judgement, it just illustrates a difference in Ozil’s role this year. Ozil is a hard one to analyse for me because for a player of his quality, he’s just too inconsistent for me blame his ineffectiveness on tactical issues alone.

            I also don’t understand what saying a coach is dribble-averse means. Coaches as a rule don’t encourage over-dribbling, but Emery gives attacking players a decent amount of freedom in this team. If we’re dribble-averse, it’s because we lack dribblers. That’s a player quality issue, not a coaching one.

            Iwobi and Kolasinac managed plenty of overlapping and underlapping. Both players were the major contributors to the team’s overall xA – their major problem was too many good positions wasted by a lack of end-product. A typical example was Kolasinac fluffing that early assist into the 6 yd box to an on-rushing Auba and Laca in the Europa League Final. The attacking structure wasn’t the problem, it was the execution.

            With a bit more quality in the squad, better attacking balance from the right, and players better able to mix both Zone 14 and half-space attacks, structures that looked weak last season could look very effective this year.

  13. Boy, if we do get Pepe, Tierney and a starting quality CB, and manage to sell Mustafi to Monaco for decent money, this would have been a great window.

    On top 4, I think the squad is more than good enough. My doubts are to do with Emery. I don’t think he can coach a good defensive structure, and I don’t feel he’s got the..for lack of a better word.. courage to just play attacking football.

    We’ll play well for a half, and then he’ll make a substitution to try and get us more ‘balanced’ or something and that’ll put us under pressure.

    If we add Pepe, as seems likely, how do you think we should line up in attack, and how will we? Will we have Auba on the left, Pepe on the right and Laca through the middle? Or will one of Auba/Laca be benched?

    Will Ceballos play deeper to help us retain some technical control, or will he play at 10 to try and pressure the opposition higher up?

    Last season’s starting 2 games were rough on Emery. But that unbeaten run masked a lot of problems. Then at the end, throwing away the top 4 (and relegating Spurs to the EL while paying for their new stadium) was just shocking.

    On the plus side, Edu has talked about setting an identity being the most important thing, and Freddie’s inclusion should help as a link between the coach and players. It’s all on Unai to prove he’s got what it takes to coach at a big club.

    My gut feeling is we won’t get top 4, but will win the EL this time.

  14. Great post Tim.

    If the front office can pull off everything we are talking about it would be an incredible summer. The last years of Wenger/Gazidis was an absolute disaster in many ways and a new front office was always going to take some time to clean up the mess. Arsene had total control of the football side of the equation for so many years and the entire football front office had to be rebuilt from scratch and that was never going to be easy and there were bound to be some early missteps. Hopefully we are now on the right track.

  15. if emery can work out how to set the team up for away games similar to those at the emirates and get the confidence back, I don’t want top 4. I want to see a title challenge.
    go on a good run and stay injury free and when we have a minor hiccup get straight back on track.
    get rid of unhappy players and the biggest of all stop moaning get behind the players in red and white, supporting arsenal is after all supposed to be enjoyable (sometimes)

  16. To finish 4th I think we might need a new manager. We will need to be 50% better on the road. I worry about our road record.

    I agree though – what are Man Utd doing? hahahahahhaha

    We may want to be careful of dismissing Chelsea though… lots of young talent there that may finally have a chance to prove itself.

  17. I have just seen photos of Pepe, in London, holding an Arsenal carrier bag; this is beyond exciting. It is refreshing to be genuinely stunned, and in a good way.
    It feels sharp that so many of you are already harbouring reservations over Emery’s suitability. I’m with Bunburyist on the importance of taking context into account when trying to make an evaluation. Given the quality of the squad, the torpor, the over-extended demise of the Wengerian dynasty and a backroom staff who seemed more focused on themselves than the team, I think Emery made a decent fist of it in his first year. We’re not Chelsea and I don’t respect their revolving door system.

    I feel that Bould was given the job of sorting out the defence. He failed and as a consequence he has been absorbed elsewhere. It’s not as though Emery shouldn’t shoulder some of the responsibility, but for me, that was on Bould.

    I still cannot decide whether Emery’s starting eleven against Palace represented a total lack of respect for his opponent, a colossal over-estimation of his squad or a singular masterstroke that forced the suits to come to face to face with the paucity of their purchases. Should we therefore be thanking Emery for this spectacular spending spree? After all, we should be able to beat Palace using a liberal smattering of squad players, shouldn’t we?

    1. we don’t know what bould’s job was to do. he may have been there simply to help with emery’s transition or because the club didn’t want to buy out his contract. i don’t remember seeing bould in any of the training videos the club began to release. with that, i do understand you belief. we often presume and your presumption is certainly reasonable but we simply don’t know.

      as for that crystal palace game, i felt that unai was trying to get some squad rotation in but he overdid it. if he felt comfortable bringing in elneny and jenkinson in the same game, he certainly underestimated crystal palace.

      1. Agreed, the lack of clarity over Bould’s specific role hardly cements my case but I’m sure the phrase ‘defensive coach’ was attributed to him in the twilight of Wenger’s reign. I had optimistic visions of the ‘bouldy’ near post flick being resurrected and a drilled to death backline that purred like a Swiss watch.

        It just struck immediately that we would lose that Palace game as soon as I saw the starting line up and I’m pretty sure most seasoned observers would have at least felt a little queasy. Maybe it was just over-enthusiastic squad rotation but the final scoreline flattered us hugely. I watched the second half from behind my sofa.

        1. I think there’s something to what you said about Emery making a point with his line-up against Palace. I thought he did it in a different game as well, can’t remember which one though.

          That game man. Lacazette had done so well to set-up Ozil for the equaliser and then… yeah.

          1. Put it this way, if Emery had purposefully shown up the mediocrity of the squad (purchased by his predecessor) against one of the league’s relative minnows, then he is a very clever chap. It was not an entirely victimless crime, as it cost us CL money but he’s a clever cookie if this was cunning plan.

  18. There’s some Umtiti talk going around.

    Umtiti.

    I hate the postseason/preseason. It messes with your head worse than any professional flirt.

    90% of the strories/links/ rumous are baseless. If this happens, I’ll do laps in my yard in the rain. Naked.

    1. Rumours between him or Rugani. Even before last season ended, I was suggesting we’d get Umtiti. I didn’t think it would happen once we missed out on the CL. But now? Maybe. Probably a loan with option/obligation to buy.

    2. Where are you seeing the Umtiti talk? Just Googled and appears there are links with United, but didn’t see Arsenal. That would be incredible, but why would Barcelona sell him?

      1. Because he’s just coming off a major injury. They need the cash too. Umtiti though will be in the 60-70m range. I think that’s beyond us now. Rugani on a two year loan sounds sensible for us and Juventus, once Chiellini retires Rugani will be ready to go back.

  19. do you guys really believe pepe is better than zaha? i certainly don’t. in fact, i believe if you put zaha in ligue 1, he’d absolutely kill it. the only reason i prefer pepe is because of his age and i think he can get better. zaha may be at his peak.

    with that, zaha will be salty that we opted for his international team mate ahead of him when we feature against him next season, especially considering he was the cheaper option.

    1. Let him be salty if he wants. He can direct it at Palace.

      The Pepe deal suited us better. Palace looked like they were determined to string this out to the end of the window. We said “f*** that”, moved on, and tied it up in timely fashion. I’m perfectly satisfied with that approach. If I had to choose, it’d be Zaha because he knows this league.

      As the Rolling Stones said… you can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get what you need. Exactly the case here.

    2. I think we were willing to spend 72m on Pepe because of his sell-on potential. If he continues on form he’ll be worth 100m+ to PSG, Real Madrid or Barcelona in 2 or 3 years… before we’d even finished paying for him. Zaha on the other hand is older and also British (essentially). He would not have much interest in playing on the continent and so the list of suitors is smaller which wouldn’t demand as much transfer fee.

      We seem to be moving away from signing senior players as band-aids (Sokratis, Lichtsteiner) and adopting a loan (Ceballos, Rugani reportedly) or prospects (Saliba, Tierney, Pepe) strategy that mitigates the downside and has big upside financially if it comes off.

      1. I think we were willing to spend 72m on Pepe because of his sell-on potential. If he continues on form he’ll be worth 100m+ to PSG, Real Madrid or Barcelona in 2 or 3 years… before we’d even finished paying for him.

        ===

        I had the exact same thoughts yesterday. He could be worth double what we paid for him in a couple of years, which is when we sell and re-invest (i.e., if we’re looking to Liverpool as the model for how to build a squad even when you’re not bankrolled by an emirate). Much will depend on his progress and ability to adapt to England, of course, but this deal could look really, really good in so many ways.

        1. Or we keep him! Just saying if you like what Liverpool did with Coutinho and that money…

          1. I doubt if we’ll keep him. I think the days of us matching big wage offers from other clubs are over, Ramsey demonstrated that, Ozil is a perfect example of the handcuffs you end up slapping on yourself. If the big boys come calling for him, we’ll sell and buy another prospect. I’m ok if that becomes the ethos of the club. What I worry about though is you need the right manager for player development. Klopp, Pochettino – they’ve both shown they can make players better.

    3. In the short term it is likely that Pepe was the cheaper option (given Lille’s ostensible agreement on installment payments). Longterm, if you think Pepe’s ceiling is higher, then that benefit must be assessed against his higher overall cost. Factor-in inflation, and arguably Pepe is the better and cheaper long term option as well.

      1. This too. Smaller initial outlay was a big factor.

        This is a classic risk scenario. Zaha is prem tested and effective to a factor of 5; Pepe is 4 years younger and effective to a factor of 8, which you can adjust to 6 or 7 because it’s a less demanding league.

        It was a well weighed risk.

    4. Comparing leagues is impossible without wheeling out the cliches. It’s like comparing Liam Brady to today’s footballers. There’s been a lot of talk of Ligue 1 being the ‘farmers’ league’; given the quality players that have been nurtured by that league over the years, it’s more cradle of civilisation than farmers’ league.
      I’m going to over-rely on the statistic that Pepe is the first Lille player to score 19 goals in a season since Hazard. He did ok in England after all.
      This time of year seems to unearth many self-elected experts in leagues around the world, thankfully none on this site. I can’t claim to know whether Zaha is actually reliable week-in week-out, let alone what goes on at Lille. I lurked on a few Palace forums and while the fans don’t want him to go, it certainly wasn’t unanimous, with some claiming that he only showed for the big games. Pepe’s showreel on Youtube looks impressive and he will get people out of their seats. Ultimately we couldn’t / wouldn’t pay up front, so we had to go for Pepe. I think / hope that he’s the real deal.

      1. Aside from the footballing considerations between Zaha and Pepe, you have to admire the balls to quietly get that done while people like Roy Hodgson and Neil Lennon of Celtic were out in front of the media throwing shade at us for being broke.

        Pepe’s numbers (over his last two seasons, excl the penalties) line up pretty well with Sadio Mane’s numbers at Southampton, and also Ousmane Dembele’s numbers at Rennes and Dortmund (he was a couple years younger tho). I think the decision to reserve the big bid for Pepe was a smart one.

        1. You’re right, all done under the radar while not discussing / discrediting the £40 million figure that was being touted. This does seem something of a departure from the past. If we offered 55 million plus a player or two right now, Palace would be under huge pressure to cave in. They have been left with a very disgruntled player on their hands. At least if we had both, we could carry out a more scientific comparison.

    5. I prefer Pepe to Zaha, but this is only an impression. I get the feeling that Zaha is a potential stud, but needs to be the focus of the attack to make a positive impact. He’s also not efficient enough, relies on his physical attributes more than technique, and failed at a big club previously. Pepe seems like he has more end product, is more technical, and doesn’t need to be the main guy to contribute. Plus he’s younger, cheaper and maybe has a higher ceiling. Happy with this signing. It got me excited for the season ahead. Add in Martinelli and Eddie, I think we have an exciting attack, and genuine competition for both Iwobi and Miki to step up their games.

      1. True, I had forgotten about his blank at Man Utd. I think that 80 mill was OTT because of that fact.

  20. what was worrying me about zaha was the lack of quality clubs coming in for him. man u would have got him even cheaper as they have a sell on clause..
    everton is the best he can get so far.
    anchelotti’s napoli and a late bid from psg is a better cv.
    zaha seems to have an atfitude that hodgson seems to bring the best out of not sure he’d like the emery whip.

    1. it’s because his end product is atrocious. remember that gif of ronaldo doing stepovers and falling down? that’s Zaha.

  21. Ideally we set up to play a 4-3-3 now that Pèpè’s joining Arsenal.

    The trick is juggling the midfield and defense to play a strong structured base. Does Emery fancy an inverted triangle in midfield or a regular triangle ?

    This is assuming a new CB and LB are signed in this window to bolster the defense.

  22. The one concern regarding Pepe is the players we have brought in from Ligue 1 have not even come very close to replicating the numbers they were able to put up in France. Chamakh, Gervinho Giroud and Lacazette have all seen a significant drop in the number of goals they scored when they moved to the PL.

  23. And just like that, we’ve got ourselves a fearsome and lethal triple headed dragon (triplets of record signings for that matter) for offence and armed with a cute lil penguin body embodied with some fancy clumsy Swiss and German flair to fend for ourselves. Gonna be exciting/thrilling to watch us slaughter the defence of the premier league and also heart wrenching to watch the premier league slaughter our defence in our own cruel game of whose net will RIP (pun intended).

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