Summer 2019 #ArsenalNarratives.
Saliba will be worth £70m next season
The logic behind buying Saliba this summer and then loaning him back to St. Etienne is that he will be worth more next season. How much more is the subject of wild speculation and a lot of people are reaching for the top shelf to justify this rather odd deal. Most folks are already predicting that he will be worth as much as Virgil is for Liverpool. That would be a transfer coup of epic proportions if it were to come to pass.
Chelsea routinely try to pull this type of thing off (or at least they used to!) and they have had some success (Lukaku, etc) so I don’t think it’s impossible.
But as it stands, Arsenal paid £27m (not all up front and contingent on certain achievements) for a player that will not play for the club this season in a position that Arsenal need. When asked at the Q&A why this deal was done, officially, the club’s hierarchy are trying to protect the player – the Premier League is physical and difficult.
On a “stuff that makes Tim chuckle” note: I went to the Arsenal team page after he was announced and there were these two photos:
#80mSaliba
Ceballos will get Arsenal top four
The logic behind turning Arsenal into a development team for Real Madrid is that it might turn out to be profitable for them to do so. If Ceballos can lead the team to top four land, it will have been worth it because the Champions League is so much more profitable.
Wrapped up in this narrative are a series of sub narratives that I have seen developed this season.
Ceballos fills a need that the club have had since they let Ramsey go on a free*. Or does he? Will he play up top at the point of the diamond, like Ramsey did to great success last season (which is where we have seen Ozil deployed so far this season)? Will he play deep in the double-pivot where Arsenal have a crowded field of players (Xhaka, Torreira, Guendouzi, Elneny, Willock, Maitland-Niles, ) vying for two positions? Or will he play wide where Arsenal basically only have Iwobi, Mkhitaryan, and Nelson (or Saka)?
I’ve had a look and as I said yesterday think his best position is either as an attacking 8 or 10 in Emery’s double-pivot set up. You really shouldn’t get hung up on “8” or “10”. What I mean is the space in the middle of the pitch, between the opponent’s two banks of four – not that the opponent will always play a back four, it’s just easier to visualize the space I’m talking about – behind the striker(s).
This also happens to be Ceballos’ preferred position with the player saying “I identify myself a lot with Iniesta and with Isco, players that play behind the striker and have absolute freedom to get the ball and move the team. My ideal position and where I feel more comfortable is at No. 8, behind the striker and creating play for the team.”
That quote was from 2017 when Ceballos won the MVP of the Euro U21 tournament with Spain. And last season he wore the #10 shirt for Spain U21 and put up his most impressive stats of his career playing in exactly the position that I’m talking about.
Arsenal’s in-house tactical analysis paints a similar picture, though wonderfully illustrated (above) and with better clarity of detail in that they take time to illustrate how he likes to play through balls, receive in half-spaces, and create for his teammates. Please take five minutes and read it.
I have to admit confirmation bias (and a sad-sack appeal to authority) here: this article on Arsenal dot com confirms everything I wrote in my piece a few days ago. Ceballos is best in the 10 spaces, Ceballos is a fiesty defender and presses well, Ceballos is a decent dribbler, and Ceballos is a much better creative midfielder than people think.
What’s odd is that I have heard people say that Ceballos is “basically a zero in the final third” which I found to be incredibly unflattering to this player. Not only that but most people believe he will play deep with Arsenal next season because of this lack of creativity and because he’s supposedly press resistant. I’m intentionally not picking on any one tweeter here because this narrative has caught like a house of fire (similar to how so many folks thought Torreira was more Cazorla than Kante before they had seen him play). Basically everyone believes that Ceballos will play deep. I’m the outlier. Which is fine.
For me, Ceballos is exactly the kind of midfielder that Emery has wanted and needed at Arsenal. Ozil has the technical ability but couldn’t put in the defensive hustle. Ramsey has the steel but lacked the creative output and ability to control games. Meanwhile, neither player really was great at beating a man one-v-one. Ceballos marries all of these qualities. If Emery doesn’t play him in the hole (injuries aside), I will be bewildered.
The only thing I’m frustrated about is that we are signing a player who we need and who will already leave us next season on a free. Even if he does get us Champions League money will it be enough to replace him when he’s gone?
*True story, Ceballos will also leave next season on a free.
This sounds like an interesting but calorie-reduced version of Cazorla-light and Ramsey-light mixed together in a single player.
Yum!
Maybe Ozil could play wide with Auba on the other flank. Which would be how Wenger liked it. But most likely they won’t play together if I’m hearing you right. Which is what I expected.
I don’t know. We could end up playing like we did against Chelsea when Ramsey shut down their midfield. Or we could end up ignoring the centre as part of the attack again. I suspect we’ll revert to the latter most times.
But I guess I’m just low on Emery. Maybe he’ll find a way to make things work well. We may have more additions for him too.
“But I guess I’m just low on Emery. Maybe he’ll find a way to make things work well. We may have more additions for him too.”
This.
I see that you are willing to #giveThisProjectTheOneLastChanceItDeserves.
Don’t worry Shard, it is not Emery alone who is steering this ship. It is Ljungberg and Edu too. More reasons to be a bit more hopeful.
If Ceballos gets us top 4 and we had to pay RM 80M then to buy… it’s still a good deal! Every club out there are buying a player for that amount and hoping he would succeed while we would know exactly what we are getting! Only concern on loan deal is player’s mindset and willingness to improve without knowing his exact future. I’m fully confident in Emery to get the best out of him as long as he stays fit!
From everything I’ve read, he only wants to go back to Real Madrid.
saliba strikes me as more of a raphael varane than vincent kompany. he’s a very solid defender with extremely long legs. at 18, he’s already like 6’4″ and very accomplished. i think he’ll be a good signing. the questions is will arsenal be able to keep him.
i don’t remember much of ceballos at real madrid but i did watch him play last month in the u21 tournament. many people think he was the best player in the spain team but that’s simply not true. i liked dani olmo a ton but that’s because i’d like to see arsenal buy him. however, it was fabian ruiz, who plays for napoli, that was most outstanding; he looked like a man among boys, even for the spanish team. with that, ceballos still looked very good. i hope he’s everything you say, tim. we’ll see.
If Ceballos gets us into the CL, he will have 100% been worth it.
However, unless we resolve the defensive issues, I doubt he will matter.
This. Although maybe if we can up our creative output…the defensive permeability costs us less points.
i am surprised at everyone seeing him as a player to replace Xhaka. Ceballos is like Isco and Iniesta, in that he is another Iwobi. These players are not great in terms of the numbers they rake up for assists and goals, but they have a role to play in the side. His signing is Unai’s second chance on such a player, because Suarez was very much groomed as such and was a prospective Iniesta replacement when hey signed him.
Ceballos, just like Koke, are inverted wide players who play in the half spaces. Iwobi played a similar role for Nigeria at the current Afcon, where he was placed at CAM in the line-ups, but drifted more towards the left and letting Etebo play the same role, albeit less offensive, on the right side.
What we have here, is players who are best playing in the roles David Silva and Kevin DeBruyne play for City. Especially since Emery’s teams do not really play through the centre of the pitch once they get into the opposition half. So Ozil not playing for Emery was less about his weaknesses defensively, but more about the way his team plays offensively. If it was because of how we defend, we would have seen a coherent defensive system, in which Mesut doesn’t fit. We didn’t press and also didn’t sit back, prioritise interceptions but we also didn’t tackle a lot, we didn’t have a defensive shape to direct the opposition out wide and yet we also didn’t keep teams from dominating the centre of the pitch.
So, I do agree that he will not play at the base of a midfield, because he isn’t a player for that role and he will compete with the three behind a sole striker, but he will predominantly drift to the left. His heat maps for basically all his games show that.
maybe you read that on another forum but i don’t recall anyone here saying he’s coming into to play a role similar to xhaka. the general consensus is that he’ll play either the # 8 or 10 role.
Claude, yesterday, I believe.
fair enough. i certainly don’t see him as a xhaka replacement. he’d get blown away. in fairness, i don’t want any young player at cdm.
Really interesting points there Devlin. Backed up by the analysis on the dot com apparently.
I love the player. I have watched him for years now.
As a leader or a coach, you have to maximize the resources available to you. If Emery where to maximize, given the players (resources) he has, he should try Ceballos at the base of the diamond; Cazorla’s position, and leave ozil at 10.
Whatever you say about ozil, he can’t defend even if his life depended on it! Case in point, carjacking yesterday. But he has other skills.
Our defensive problem is tied to our midfield “issues”. With ceballos and ozil on the pitch at the same time, our ball retention and defence would improve.
If I were Emery I would say: ” ceballos, get the ball to ozil, ozil, know where your attackers like to receive and find them”…
I’m not the biggest ozil fan, but as in my private life, I’m a manager of people (lots) and I always want to get the job done.
But knowing Emery, he’ll want to show the world that ozil can’t defend just as he also did and picked on players at PSG.
Thing is we all want Emery to deliver on his promise of ‘pressing football’.
Problem though is that ‘pressing football’ has no room for passengers defensively. If you are in doubt, ask Pep and Jurgen.
I have no idea where he will play. Naive optimism it may be, but there are a lot of scenarios where Ceballos is a success here, gets us back to CL, and we buy him for 40 or 50m. Right off the bat he’s got a manager who is a big fan, and a close friend in Bellerin. I believe him when he says he wants to go back to Madrid but is he dead set on it if he’s not gonna be a starter? He isn’t going to get in that side ahead of Isco or Pogba, when he inevitably arrives. Even if Modric is gone by then, Kroos could still be around too. A solid year could go a long way to changing his mind and sticking around.
I hope I’m wrong, but Ceballos seems to me to be a harbinger of more short-term instability when it comes to formation, line-up and personality. I am less than enthused.
It goes without saying that all clubs keep a close eye on their most promising loanees.
Breaking into the starting XI at a club like Real Madrid is a big ask for even the biggest players. If Ceballos is serious about returning there to fight for a place he’s going to have to impress all parties next season.
He has all the motivation necessary to really “make his bones” here and deliver something positive with his presence.
“For me, Ceballos is exactly the kind of midfielder that Emery has wanted and needed at Arsenal. Ozil has the technical ability but couldn’t put in the defensive hustle. Ramsey has the steel but lacked the creative output and ability to control games.”
This!
i hope ceballos is good enough to impress real madrid to bring him back but it’s unlikely. look no further than alvaro morata two years ago and kovacic last year. however, the real madrid midfield is not getting any younger, so it may happen. we’ll see.
Sure, Joshuad, rain on my parade. Marco Asensio came back from loan looking good and then promptly blew out his knee. As an aside, I’m surprised Bale lasted as long as he did. F&%k Real Madrid. Except Marcelo. He’s cool. It’s the hair.
But there’s also Carvajal who came back to become their starting right back. If not he can leverage a great season at Arsenal to move to a bigger club easily.
Raul said the transfer team has a clear understanding of their targets in the transfer market this summer.
I think I beginning to believe that statement because of how we have gone about PATIENTLY doing our business and making sure we land 1st choice signings on the list, instead of hurriedly looking to settle for alternatives.
There is also the matter of Emery going specifically for a player that so obviously solves the ‘No 10’ problem for him, and fits into his vision of an all-rounder chameleonlike footballer.
Tierney is more a signing to help us play with the ‘right’ (effective and balanced) defensive setup than he is a player that will come in just to replace any one individual underperformer.
I don’t have strong feelings either way on Ceballos. He can’t be any worse than our previous loan signings, can he? (The Arsecast just put together a list of the loans we’ve done over the last three decades, and it’s truly dismal listening in terms of quality / end-product. On the other hand, I don’t remember anyone coming to us on loan with this much hype about his ability, so…there’s hope?)
I can understand why, given our rumored budget (though Sanllehi’s recent comments about this were interesting), we’d make use of the loan market this summer, and perhaps this is also being done with the strategy of biding time in a key midfield area while we go in for more pressing (and permanent) targets now (LB and a wide forward…and future CB). We’ll return to address midfield again next summer once we have a better idea of how Iwobi and Willock fare over the next nine months. It makes a bit of sense.
I’m somewhat optimistic for the new season. Much will depend on the defensive personnel Emery has at his disposal, not just at the start (which isn’t looking good given the delayed returns of Holding and Bellerin, and the as-yet-to-be-determined situation at left-back), but on a consistent basis.
My bro Bun declares himself “optimistic.”
Coffee spat.
Man, I’m going straight to Hollywood and take my chances with Salma Hayek 🙂
Heh.
Go for it. The stars are aligning. Pepe, anyone?
Is this a joke?
i thought it was funny.
seriously, dillonthenewguy, you’re welcome in the community but you’ve got to mind your manners. bun’s posted more valid points on this forum than words you’ve typed here; he’s old testament.
I’ll take it! (Minus the Leviticus stuff on bodily fluids and killing wizards.)
“Much will depend on the defensive personnel…” Our Achilles Heel like, forever. A systemic, deep rooted issue. Poor defending seems to be part of our DNA. It’s what defines Arsenal. No wonder Tony Adams has left football for rugby!
Nicholas Pepe! Tim we need updates on this guy. Looks like our guys used Zaha to create the smokescreen while pursuing this dude. Very clever.
Pepe on the way? Surely with this attack Emery will play good football and not rely solely on the FBs. (That’s what I thought last season too)
But we’re now really stacked in attack with Martinelli added too. Maybe we have a plan to sell some players like Miki? Or is it another loan for Nelson and ESR
It is a very exciting news out of the blue. Shows some real ambition. It looks to me we are taking a gamble with our defensive unit and prioritize offensive replacements over a back three/four mess. Holding has been very impressive in his recovery and for me Raul&co decided to wait for his comeback, use Monreal as a CB and Mustafi/Chambers for a cover for Sokratis&Holding partnership (eventually, Holding, Sokratis, Monreal as a unit).
We will see what the future brings but it smells like a lot of goals upfront and some expected disappointments at the back.
All in all, haven’t been excited for the upcoming season but it looks like there is a light ahead. Get it done.
#wecaredoyou?
pepe… that’s a yes then….
Talk about an out of the blue moment: Pepe. Ornstein (The Oracle of Arsenal) says it is happening, it is happening. Who said we only have 40-45 million to spend. We clearly have a budget that includes financial accounting wizards in the back room.
The man who knows no fear plays for my team and that man is Kolasinac. Wow, dude.
When Josh Kroenke said to get excited, I was thinking Ceballos…
Did not see this coming.
this is kuh-raaaazeee! imagine the arsenal front line and bringing martinelli and iwobi off the bench. wow! let’s see if emery gets it right or jams it up.
For eff’s sake, Arsenal… how far can you take 45 million quid? Did not see that one coming.