Reported in both the Guardian and BBC, Arsenal have had a £40m bid for Wilfried Zaha rejected and derided. The BBC is also reporting (Ornstein) that Arsenal might also lose out on Tierney. And some of the red tops are reporting that Arsenal added salt to the wound with Palace by structuring the bid to be payable over five years.
Palace are upset because we didn’t even come close to their “valuation”. It’s a tricky concept.
I had someone cold call me yesterday and offer to buy my home. For real. I thought for a minute. How much would I sell for? $300k? That gives me a pretty sizeable down payment on another house. But I’m not interested in selling so I would need more like $350k to get out. They offered $200k. I hung up the phone.
I think Zaha is worth about £20m, Palace think (publicly stated through Ornstein) he’s worth £80m, Arsenal think he’s worth £40m. What’s he worth? All of those figures to all of those folks.
The only thing I will question is whether Arsenal might be underselling Zaha’s value to them. As you’re aware, I’m not on team Zaha (only because of his price tag) but hey, it would be fun to watch him running straight at defenders, throwing his arms up, and forcing officials to go to VAR three or four times a game.
More importantly, though, if Arsenal want to buy him, they must think he can improve the team. And there lies the real question: if Zaha does improve the team (I am undeniably in the camp that says he does) then wouldn’t that mean that he could get us Champions League next season? And if he can get us Champions League, isn’t that worth more? The last I saw was that Champions League nets somewhere between £50-80m. Isn’t there a logic to getting a lot closer to Palace’s valuation?
What the bid – and the fact that it is structured over five years – tell me is that there is a hesitation here on the part of Sanllehi. On the one hand it’s smart because Zaha is such a weird footballer. His attack creation numbers are unusually low for a player who has the ball so often. And his main value seems to be as a penalty magnet/agent of chaos. Arsenal aren’t broke by any stretch but we do have to be careful. If Zaha turns out to be a bust, then structuring the deal that way allows us to sell him a few seasons later and not be out too much money.
It’s important to remember that we didn’t have any problem buying Aubameyang. We negotiated, paid them a lot, got the player. And well done, because he scored 30 goals last season. But here, with Zaha we are hesitant. I both understand the hesitation (because I feel it myself) and also don’t understand the hesitation (because I also know he would improve us).
I remember back to April when Arsenal were heading into the end of season run. We had a chance to move up to third place when we played Palace at home.
Maybe you’ve blanked that match out of your memory (congrats if you have) but that was the Shkodran Mustafi masterclass: he left Benteke free on a set play for their first and he tried to body Zaha for their second and they scored off a corner for their third. Team selection was criticized at the time (Emery started Guendouzi and Elneny in midfield) and it did not help at all as Ozil was forced into 11 turnovers that day. But it also turned out to be Jenkinson and Mustafi’s defensive woes which undid Arsenal. Mostly Mustafi.
Zaha scored, was fouled 5 times, created 3 chances for teammates, and completed 3/9 dribbles. Very much exactly what Arsenal would love to have in attack.
But that game also illustrated what else Arsenal very much need: midfield and defenders. Replacing Mustafi, Elneny, and Jenkinson and I think Arsenal run that game.
And also, if Arsenal have Zaha I think we run that game.
Arsenal need to figure out what they want to do. Last week we hired Ljungberg to help pave the way for academy players to break into the first team. Yesterday Eddie Nketiah tweeted about how eager he was to play for the first team. Today we signed and announced an 18 year old Brazilian striker. We need a center back and we are going to buy Saliba (reportedly) but then we are going to loan him back. We need a left back and bid for Tierney. But now there’s competition and Arsenal seem to be losing out. We acted like we want Zaha, going so far that his camp is making noise about how Palace need to let him go, but then put in a bid that Palace would have to reject out of hand.
We are now 4 days away from the first pre-season friendly and 14 days away from the USA tour. This is that famous “Arsenal dithering” in the transfer market that we have been told was always Wenger’s fault. Maybe it’s endemic.
This is so simple. He would improve us, but is he that good. And aren’t there other priorities. People often make up so many excuses to support ONE conclusion (me included)
I think there are other priorities. But I’m lost because this is Unai Emery we’re talking about. What does he want most? Zaha I guess. I can’t support it, but ok. But surely not if it means losing either of Laca or Auba?
But then Freddie has been put in charge of guiding the youngsters integration into the first team, so maybe we sell Laca after all and clear the path for Eddie (and NEW SIGNING!! Martinelli)
All I can say is I hope we come out of this window with no more stupid decisions, and then the chameleon can adapt to his players too. Wild that we play in 4 days.
Anyone know why we aren’t going for Nabil Fekir. Has been amazing the last 3 years for Lyon. In his last year of his contract so we should have a good chance of signing him…
In a word, competition. He’s not exactly under the radar anymore, and you can be sure that the moment we put in a [typically unsatisfactory] bid for him, someone else will come into the picture, probably at the invitation of an angered Lyon, and blow us out of the water. Being in the final year of his contract doesn’t mean much – look at the prices quoted for Hazard and Eriksen this window alone.
Actually that’s answering why I think we don’t have a chance more than anything. As to why we aren’t even trying…who knows?
england are bottlers!
Okay, that VAR pen in US v. England…I did think of you. The brand is strong.
HA HAH HA
I don’t think the answer is competition. Fekir’s knee could blow up at any moment and no club wants to take the plunge.
£40m for Zaha derided? I can see that.
Arsenal come back with a £40m and one.
Problem solved.
ha!
I just don’t get this take at all.
By most accounts, Suarez had an ‘over 40 million’ or whatever clause in his contract. Arsenal offered over 40 million. Are they supposed to offer MORE money than necessary just to not upset Liverpool?
Liverpool management even came out to say that Arsenal met the evaluation and they just ignored it…but somehow we’re still the idiots in all this.
It’s like the Alonso thing all over again. Benitez wanted Gareth Barry, he couldn’t get Gareth Barry, so he wasn’t going to sell us Alonso for an extra million without a replacement.
I’m sorry but I don’t get it. Do people still think that if arsenal just offered 41 million or even 50 million liverpool would have sold us Suarez?
Like if something we want is for sale for $20 literally none of us would say ‘Here’s $50 because I don’t want to upset you.’
You offer the asking price and if THEY renage then THEY’RE the a$$holes.
Seriously, I’m I totally mistaken mistaken abett how those two deals went down?
Seriously, I’m I totally mistaken about how those two deals went down?
yes, suarez had a release clause of £40 million but it wasn’t announced. the only people that knew the value of the release clause was suarez and liverpool. somehow, arsenal found out. how? they tapped up suarez, which is illegal as f*ck! not only did they tap up the player, they flaunted the fact that they knew his release clause by taunting them with the “and £1.” this pissed liverpool off even more and they told arsenal to go f*ck themselves.
imagine being the liverpool owner or a fan and having someone taunt you that way. it’s not about the money, it’s the lack of respect arsenal showed.
was suarez within his right to fight it? yes, and if he did, liverpool would have had no choice but to sell him. steven gerrard talked suarez out of the move so arsenal, in the end, looked like mugs.
It was probably a good thing Suarez decided not to fight it and push for the Arsenal move.
With our record of spectacular collapses he’d have been biting Bayern defenders left and right in no time and getting banned from football in the process.
Arsenal would’ve ended up selling him to Barca for a loss.
See , it all worked out for the best.
Suarez agent was Guardiola’s brother. He was the one who leaked Suarez release.
Are release clauses really meant to be private? I mean think about it. How would that work? A club would be bidding every minute with offers improved by minimum. I’m not even sure you simply get to keep money above the point the contract is legally void (released) if the buyer isn’t made aware.
Also, it doesn’t HAVE to mean tapping up. Aren’t the contracts filed with the PL. It could just be ‘business intelligence’ on Arsenal’s part to find out.
Liverpool raised a hue and cry because they knew they’d undervalued Suarez and deflected blame. Arsenal fans just love to blame their own.
Oh the Suarez saga, the first edition that is.
I only brought it up to lighten the mood but I can see people are still sour about it.
It always amazed me how different Arsenal fans reacted to the whole thing. From Wenger botched it to Wenger just faked it to unsettle a rival player because he would never consider bringing a racist to a club like Arsenal.
Comedy gold.
On my part, I firmly believe Arsenal should never bid for another player named Suarez , whatever the spelling.
Zaha has scored 32 and assisted 34 goals in 13,700 minutes in his PL career.
Sane has 25 goals and 31 assists in just little over 6000 minutes.
What’s he worth, a £160m?
And he’s 3 years younger.
We could do without Zaha and still be a better team, its all about making the right decisions.
Upgrades needed in midfield and defense and more creativity in attack. Spending 80m on Zaha is not necessary except if we want to win the Premiership which no one seems to be talking about.
i watched some the uefa u21 tournament last month. spain has a kid that plays for dynamo zagreb named dani olmo. this kid is special; reminds me of a young robert lewandowski. i watched him against a french side that had guendouzi and the jeff, among others. spain absolutely mopped the floor with france and olmo was a heavy contributor to that beating. it’s embarrassing how much smarter the spanish players are than the french. on sunday, in the final against germany, he was just as brilliant, scoring the game winner with a cheeky chip.
olmo has all the tools to play anywhere on the front line but i believe he has a future at center forward. i normally try to name drop guys before they get too high up on radar but, after sunday, i think everyone knows about olmo. he’s the right age and has tons of first team experience in croatia. it’s where arsenal got eduardo from and should have listened to eduardo’s recommendation and signed luka modric. i’d take olmo over zaha as olmo will have a final product to his work (goals and assists). the question is how bad is emery’s reputation in the spanish football world and could he pull a player like olmo to the arsenal.
oh, i forgot to mention, olmo must be far cheaper than zaha.
https://www.footballwhispers.com/blog/dani-olmo-scout-report-manchester-united
One of the things that bothers me about getting back into the champions league is that as soon as we do, and we take a hammering, people will be talking about how shit we are and how we’re better off in a Europa League that we might actually win.
I’m all for us getting back into the champions league but, fan wise, as soon as we do, people will be talking about how pointless it is for us to be there.
LOL..
EXTREME TRUTH
Zaha might be worth 40M, but it would be marginal, given our other needs. Maybe even 40M+Jenkinson. Not 40M + Chambers, who probably has decent market value, plus he can play CB and DM, both areas where we need help.
Potentially unpopular opinion… I’d rather see Bukayo Saka and Reiss Nelson get regular opportunities, than Arsenal spend north of 40m GBP on Zaha. I like Zaha, mind. He’s braver than Iwobi. I wobi is penetrative enough, but he thinks he’s Ronaldinho when he gets to the box. I like Zaha’s directness. But man, I’ve liked Saka when I’ve seen him. I’d rather we grew with him and he with us.
if those guys were ready to contribute at the level required, convention suggests they’d already be in the team. while we’ve all seen flashes of brilliance in a game here or there by young gunners for years, how many of them have actually made it into the first team? it’s a tough transition that requires so much more than just talent. you need tactical awareness, experience, consistency, and resolve. this is why freddie’s been giving a new role; an attempt to facilitate a successful transition for these talented youngsters.
when those kids get on the arsenal bench, they’re in a rich vein of form in training. if it’s form, it’s only temporary and tough to maintain. they also have to deal with the savvy traps set by experienced internationals, the crowd pressures, and they have to maintain a very high level just to stay in the team. bottom line, if they were better than the guys ahead of them, they’d be playing.
Unless the manager deemed it too risky to play youngsters. Risky for the mistakes they’ll make, risky for not sticking to the system. Emery’s just extremely risk averse in everything he does. Playing 3 CMs sitting back against Huddersfield. The lack of runners from midfield. Not playing the youth even as he says he doesn’t have the right kind of players in the team.
I’m with claude on this. Especially if buying Zaha means losing one of Auba/Laca. Play Saka/Amaechi and tell them to run at the defense.Sometimes just the rawness adds something too. Spend the money on midfield and defense.
This Martinelli kid might be ready to start contributing sometime in the season too.
i agree that emery’s risk-averse. in fact, i called him a coward for his approach. but understand, it’s a big step down to throw on a bunch of kids in premier league games. it’s not their lack of talent that will expose them, it’s all the other stuff; the pressure, the discipline, the traps, the lack of experience on how to see out tough games, etc. besides, if it doesn’t work, emery would be viewed as extremely reckless, which would be true, and he’d be unceremoniously relieved of his duties.
i’m okay with rotating one young guy in, but multiple players in the same match? nah, i’ll pass. that’s nuts!
Didn’t need to be multiple players and not talking about throwing on total tenderfoots (feet?) either.
Play Willock when Ramsey goes down instead of Guen (another youngster)
Keep ESR who played in the group stages of the EL instead of getting Denis Suarez.
And if you’re really upset about a lack of wingers while Miki is out and Ozil/Iwobi aren’t doing it for you, then you turn to a young talent like Saka who did catch the eye when he was given a cameo.
Try Osei-Tutu at RB when Licht and Jenkinson aren’t good enough.
Actually, I’m not sure I trust Emery’s eye for talent. (Club seems to think the same)
Zaha means a 4-3-3 is Emery’s preferred system. Zaha is a winger. That’s as telling as anything in this move. Mhykitaryan, Nelson, Iwobi…. Relegated to the bench. Nketiah is surplus to needs.
I would love us to finally play a 433, have a coordinated press and transition better, but I dont think its Emery’s preferred system. He was forced into it at PSG, because the players complained about not being comfortable in the 4231. He has used the 4231 throughout his career, and did start off his Arsenal tenure with it.
I think it suits his flexibility more as roles are more defined in a 4231, rather than in a 433 that requires more fluidity in midfield and a certain approach out wide.
I thought at the beginning of the season, that in terms of how he set up and what he wanted to do on a game by game basis, a 4222 would have suited the team best. It is flexible in applying different tactics to it and can practically apply any system well. It also covers the weaknesses in terms of Xhaka’s lack of mobility by giving one central midfield player a fairly static position of the pitch, while utilising Emery’s favoured inverted winger/attacking midfielders in the half spaces that he wants.
Sometimes a formation alone can tell a player where he should operate and how he should operate, but a 433 has such flexibility that players would still need to figure out the tactical requirements of the side, which Emery seems to be changing all the time.
There really should be a system, not a formation, pushing the drive to sign players, and if there is, I won’t be worried about missing on primary targets because in terms of requirements, there will be a list of players who can provide us with the attributes we are looking for from Zaha. Maybe at a lower price and level of performance, but if the system is king, it won’t matter that much.
i share your love of the 4-3-3. the problem is mesut becomes a liability in that midfield. your 3 center mids have to be ball winners. mesut would have to play as a striker with direction as far as the defensive phase of play. it can certainly be done. he played as a wide striker for germany.
I had a thought yesterday. It’s weird how Spurs’ last season mirrors our 2006 campaign. Moving to a new stadium, narrow loss in the CL final, scraped through to top 4 over local rivals. We can’t even blame it on the lasagna.
If we use the 433 then having Ozil and Xhaka means 2/3 of your midfield are defensive liabilities and that might work for a few games but over the course of a full season it would be a big problem. Playing Ozil as a wide forward means we take up one of our 3 goal scoring forward positions with a player who is not a scorer. That means the other 2 forwards have to take up the scoring slack. Playing Ozil out wide also means not much scoring pace or width and no room for a player who can beat players with his dribbling skills which are skills Tim highlighted as important for our wide players. . The fullback would have to provide all of the width and pace on the flank. Ozil is not going to provide any defensive cover on the flank when the fullback is constantly bombing forward which is another problem.
Having Ozil on the wing for Germany worked because they had plenty of firepower on the rest of their squad and they had one of the worlds best squad of defensive players so they could compensate. I think Germany moved Ozil to the wing in 2014 because he was less of a defensive liability on the flank compared to being in central midfield. Germany had one of the best squad of defensive players in the world so they could compensate. The invincibles compensated for Bobby Pires but he was our second leading goal scorer as well as adding creativity and we Ashley cole who was arguably the best LB in the world and the invincibles had a very strong defensive midfield so they could compensate for one player who was not very good or highly motivated to help out with the defense. This Arsenal squad is not really very close to the 2014 Germany or the invincibles in terms of overall talent and ability to compensate.
In the past when Ozil was still a dynamic player I can understand the desire to get into the lineup even when it requires a lot of compensation from the rest of the squad. However, in the last couple years he has not been the sort of player whose brilliant creative contribution on the attacking end outweighs his other liabilities on the pitch or the cost of carrying his wages.
Real Madrid had plenty of players in their squad whom they could have sold to raise money in 2013. I suspect they were willing to part with Ozil because they had plenty of other players who could give them more then enough creativity but those other players did not require the team to compensate for the weaknesses.
I remember reading that Paddy Vierra said a team and teammates will accept that they have to compensate for a flair player like Bobby Pires who isn’t highly motivated and not very good at playing the defensive side of the game as long as the number of flair players is limited and that player adds enough positive influence on the attacking end to make the compensation worth the extra effort.
Not sure it was all that complicated. In the book Invincibles, Vieira is quoted saying that they knew Pires wasn’t great at defense, they would cover for him, but his job was to go out and win them the game.
Bill, you left out what having Ozil brings into the side. I could say the same about Sergio B usquets in that he is not very good defensively for a defensive midfielder, but the system sets out to bring out the strengths of the players and mitigate their weaknesses.
Ozil as a central midfield player works for me, but this is only theory, so here is how:
In a midfield 3 where the team has Xhaka at the base, where he will move around less than he has to in a flat two would hide his lack of mobility. In the build up, Xhaka should be dropping deeper than he has, and taking a place on the flank to create a back 3 so that he does not have to turn in central midfield, but receive the ball with the game in front of him. He is known for long passing, so he allows our f ullbacks to push higher and drag opponents back because we have a passer who can put the ball behind them. His long balls can also be dangerous if the opposition defenders head them back into midfield where we will have Ozil and Torreira waiting for the second ball. In the attacking phase, Xhaka can push up to pick up second balls just outside the edge of the box or to spread play while we are just keeping possession, while holding position to drop in between the Centerbacks instead of following d ribblers into wide areas. It would also allow the Centerbacks to face opposition in wider areas rather than in front of them, like Firmino at Liverpool. If we can protect him like how Henderson has been protected for Liverpool, he will only make tackles in non dangerous areas where he stops a counter further up the pitch or uses positioning to defend.
Torreira in the build up phase, can take a place in one of the half spaces but a bit higher up the pitch to scare th opposition from pressing. If they do then they leave gaps behind them and a chipped pass to a transition machine like Ozil, with space to run into comes into play. If they don’t press, we can push up and start playing in their half, with Torreira and Ozil finding spaces to pick up the ball. In the attacking phase, we saw what Torreira can do by the goals he scored last season and his energy can help because he will be running a lot for the side. He would be our defensive box to box like how Allan is for Nspoli, winning turnovers in the opposition third and forcing quick transitions. Defensivley, he presses and is our trigger for pressing and pushing play out wide.
Now for Ozil. He is tactically, a problem solver. Think of how much deeper he has been dropping since Carzola and Arteta. Even against Everton last season, we struggled to get the ball up the pitch, so he went deeper to transition it better, but didn’t have support up top for what he was doing. In the build up phase, he does not drop deeper, unless rotating roles with Xhaka in build up because he is also an intelligent passer who can protect the ball and chip behind the press. If Xhaka plays a long ball to the attack and it is headed out, he could position himself into areas to pick up second balls. Especially when those long passes are to wide areas. In the attacking phase, he will be drifting into deeper areas to provide more creativity deeper and help us maintain constructive possession, rather than what we do by passing in a U-Shape.
Defensively, he can play if the system is right. Pressing is usually mistaken for being all about effort and intensity, but that is far from the case. Pressing requires intelligence, that is why the teams in the lower half of the league can’t press well, and they have far more eager players than the top sides. Pressing is body shape, reading the game and has very little to do with tackling.
So we can press with Ozil, if the press is properly coordinated. For an example of pressing with Ozil in the side, see these games… home vs Liverpool, 4-1 in the 14/15 season, home vs Man Utd, in the 15/16 season, home vs Chelsea, 3-0 in the 16/17 season, home vs Spurs, in the 17/18 season.
So it can work, if you look at everyone’s strengths and weaknesses, and looked for ways to offset those weaknesses with their respective strengths.
All theory though.