15 days before the last game of the season. What are we going to do with the next two weeks?
Serie A still has two weeks left and there’s a pretty good competition for 4th place between Atalanta and AC Milan. In case you didn’t know, I sort of started watching Atalanta this year. I say “sort of started” because Serie A is difficult to get into.
First, the matches are all on ESPN and most teams are not shown live on the cable broadcasts meaning that you need ESPN+ to watch. If that wasn’t bad enough Atalanta played a lot of weekday matches this season. I can’t really take time off work to watch Serie A on Monday and then watch Arsenal in the Europa League on Thursday.
All these are excuses. I probably could have watched more games. The real problem is that they are boring. It’s a “not very good” league and the style of play is exactly what most Americans think of when they make fun of “soccer.” Slow, lots of players rolling around on the ground, etc. I suggest watching it just for the weird spectacle of it all: empty stadiums, slow play, awful defending.
If you’re not into that special kind of torture this weekend, you could watch the final day of the Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund could pip Bayern to the title if they win the Prussia derby (and Bayern lose at home to Frankfurt). If you’re rooting for the little guy, you’re probably going to be disappointed. And I don’t know how much more disappointment I can take this season.
BvB threw this title away. They were 7 points clear of Bayern Munich on February 8th. They had taken 49 points from 20 matches (2.45 ppg), scored a league high 51 goals, and conceded just 20 (2nd best in the league). In the 13 matches since that day, they have scored just 28 goals and conceded 24 (7th WORST in the league) on their way to just 24 points (1.85 ppg).
The killer blow was either the 5-0 loss to Bayern or the 4-2 loss to Schalke – with two red cards to add insult.
I would suggest skipping the Bayern/Borussia show and watching Hoffenheim against Mainz. Arsenal wide forward Reiss Nelson plays for Hoffenheim and I think he might get a good run out in this match. He’s been almost exclusively used as a sub this season and suffered an injury which sidelined him for most of January. But earlier this year he was great, especially when he started. I will keep an eye on the lineups and if he starts, I’m watching that match. If not, I’ll probably check the final 20 minutes.
You all know that he’s going to be our only “signing” this summer, right? HA HA HAH AHA HAH HA .. (gasp) … HAH AHHAH HA.. I kid. Or maybe I don’t. I can’t tell. My prognosticator took quite the beating this season so I don’t know what to trust anymore.
Speaking of which.. here was my predicted League table from August:
8/20/18: League table
| Man City +3 |
| Liverpool +3 |
| Chelsea +3 |
| Arsenal +1 |
| Tottenham +1 |
| Man United +3 |
| Everton +1 |
| Palace -1 |
| S.Hampton -1 |
| Bournemouth -1 |
| Fulham -3 |
| Brighton -3 |
| Wet Hams -1 |
| Wolves -1 |
| Leicester -1 |
| Nuke +1 |
| Watford -3 |
| Burnley -3 |
| Hudd +3 |
| Cardiff +3 |
If you can get the top and bottom of the table right, I think you’re more than halfway to having a pretty good prediction system. In this case I missed out on having a perfectly predicted top 6 by just the fact that Aubameyang missed a penalty against Spurs. Or that Arsenal lost to Palace at home.
In the mid-table, I really thought Burnley would get relegated. Ok, replace “thought” with “wished”. They are a despicable team full of players who push their opponents into the hoardings in order to try to hurt them and a manager who moans like a drain.
I also thought Watford would struggle and they didn’t and that Fulham would be the surprise package of the season. It turns out that Wolves were the surprise package and Fulham were the duds. I knew going in that it was really difficult to predict the middle of the table but I didn’t expect to be that far off.
Anyway, my predictions aren’t at all important. It’s just fun and games. I’m not even remotely approaching this in a scientific manner or trying to make new ground. I’m just glomming some things together (mostly transfer spend and previous season’s big chances created and allowed) to make a “better gut” prediction. That’s all. That’s why I missed on Burnley – because I wanted them to be relegated I put them lower than the system I devised had them.
After the 29th there will still be plenty of football to watch – I live near Seattle so I have the Sounders and they also have a development team “Defiance Tacoma” which is here in my hometown. I’m going to go to some of those matches this year.
I’m not expecting much from Arsenal this summer in terms of transfer business. Reading the Swiss Ramble’s twitter post on the money Arsenal could get from the Europa League was a bit depressing. If Arsenal win the Europa League (which I hope they do) they will only get £35m. That’s total distributions. To put that in context, Ozil and Mkhitaryan earn £28.6m just in salary last season.
I guess if we win the Europa League we could see Kroenke spend some money because it would mean a guaranteed revenue stream next season, but I wouldn’t count on it. The way that we are doing business is very much like the Clippers (NBA) of old. Everything that I’m reading is about cost cutting, savings, and trimming the ship.
That makes a certain sense because Kroenke himself isn’t going to put any money into the business. That means we have to be very careful with our money. Frugal. Tight. Which makes the Denis Suarez and Lichtsteiner signings even more mysterious. We wasted £8m on those two players. I know all the arguments about Lich, that he was a backup (blah blah), but he was so bad that he cost us points. It doesn’t matter how cheap someone is – if they cost you points, especially in a race as tight as this one was, they are not worth the money. As I said at the start of the season, the best thing about Lich was when he didn’t play.
I don’t know, man. I go back and forth on this nearly every day. One day I think we are going to see a clear out, the next day I think we are in for the worst summer transfer period of all time. I think that’s because I don’t see any direction from this team, from this management group. They seem to be flailing around looking for bargains. Maybe Emery can help the define a style and thus which players to bring in. Based on this season so far, I’m not optimistic.
You know what’s already really old? Talking about this. Talking about Emery and signings and money and all of the boring stuff that I hate about football. I just want the club to show some ambition and give us a direction. Maybe that’s where I’ll set my sights this summer: any sign of a direction will be a massive win.
Oh, and of course, winning the Europa League!
All in all, not the worst possible season. This year was about making it back to the Champions League and we are still in play for that. I look back at Klopp’s first season and hope that we build on the positives. We have Leno who looks like a top 5 keeper in the league.
We have some good defensive pieces with Sokratis, Holding, Bellerin and someone to rotate in like Maitland-Niles. Kosc can still be relied upon in a back 3. But a good LB and another CB are a must.
In the middle we have Torreira and Guendouzi who looked good. Xaka can still be a decent depth option, but 1 or 2 more here can help. On the flanks we need some serious help. Still have faith in Iwobi to add some end product but we need some big help here.
Nelson, Smith-Rowe and Nketiah hopefully add a spark. One more backup forward would help too.
All in all about 5 in, 5 out and we should be in good shape.
Up the Gunners!
We are set up fron
Midfield is one area I think we need to upgrade, as much as CB.
I dream of shifting Xhaka to Italy and Elneny to anywhere. Then we promote Willcock and bring in one decent 1st choice player – we must replace Ramsay with someone and hopefully a proper box-to-box CM.
I’m sorry but not every manager is Klopp, although I hope Emery is.
On the plus side, you can add Holding to the list of good CBs we have at the club. Maybe even Chambers.
Serie A helps me make sense of games tactically. Slower movement means I can identify shapes and see the transitions better. Might also be to do with lower emotional involvement.
I’m looking forward to the NBA playoffs now. Warriors v Portland seems a foregone conclusion but Durant’s injury could make things interesting. The East though.. Kawhi v Giannis. Toronto v Milwaukee. I expect Milwaukee to get through but Kawhi’s game winner v The Process trustees was a great sports moment.
Speaking of the process, I’m hoping for direction from Arsenal too. But rather than Emery, I hope it’s Edu and Cagigao providing it. I don’t know anything about them, but I think I know enough about Emery. I also wonder what we’re going to do about his contract. Extend now or wait till January?
I think it’s going to be a bad summer transfer-wise, if your expectations are that we’re spending big on three or more big players. My prediction, two players: one winger / wide forward and one RB, neither of them all that special. The penny-pinchers running Arsenal will reason thus: CB? You have Holding coming back. LB? Keep Monreal as back-up and you have AMN as well. Replace Ramsey? Can’t be done, but you have Torreira. Replace Welbeck? Different skill set, but you have Nketiah.
Of course, it all makes sense if all you care about is finishing in the top six. We are a Europa League team through and through — in terms of mentality, finances, squad, everything — and that’s not changing in the foreseeable future. Do I want us to win the Europa League? Of course! But make no mistake; if we do, we will look badly out of place in the CL next season.
Holding “is like a new signing!!!!!”
You can kill me now.
Yep.
Getting back in:
-Reiss Nelson (free wide forward)
-Rob Holding (“top top quality” CB)
-Calum Chambers (backup CB/DM)
-Emile Smith Rowe (replacement for Ramsey)
-Bellerin (world beater in Emeryball)
-Mavropanos (apparently all of the management team think he’s the best CB in the world)
As you can see, the Arsenal doesn’t need to buy any players. We will be stacked with top quality talent.
Don’t forget Bielik 😀
You don’t see us getting out of group stages in the CL next season if we get there? Barring a really tough group it doesn’t seem like a tough ask when looking at the latter Wenger years.
Prussia Derby? Where did you pick that up?!
It is a derby, the “Borussen derby”. But “Borussia” is Latin for “Prussia”.
GET WITH THE PROGRAM BOME.
Ha, I didn’t know that. Although Neither Gladbach nor Dortmund is anywhere near former Prussia…
I had a disturbing thought today. What if we don’t back Emery in the summer and he resigns? We’ve been in our bubble critiquing Emery and saying what a dismal job he’s done, and it’s possible even he might not want the job. Yes, there’s a heritage, but the back office that hired him is gone, he now knows just how troubled the roster is, the management team is in disarray, and the owner won’t pay for new players, even when 3 go down to season-ending injuries before January. It’s not the plumb job we have led ourselves to believe. What decent coach wants this job? Whom could we hire at the last minute in the summer. It’s not likely, but I wouldn’t blame Unai if he left in that situation.
OK – Happy Tuesday!
I predicted this a couple of months ago, around February in the middle of the Ozil mess. Emery still has a decent reputation, but he risks going down with the ship here. If we win Europa league I put the odds of him walking at 50-50, he will go out a winner and would only need to wait a few weeks for a new job.
I think we are not winning the Europa League. The law of averages dictates a Chelsea win in a final against Arsenal.
Also, it’s Hazard’s last game and he will probably be motivated to go out with a bang, while Xhaka could be motivated to, you know, be Xhaka.
That’s a disturbing thought.
I think Chelsea hate their manager. Plus they’re going to the US for exhibition games right before the final. I don’t think Chelsea will beat us, but I’ve been wrong plenty of times before.
I think Suarez was brought in to make Emery happy, he was probably doing a lot of complaining behind the scenes about wanting/needing a wide creative midfielder. I believe Lichtsteiner wasn’t so much a mistake as a knowing stop-gap measure to buy Mislintat a year to find a new RB… unfortunately Mislintat is gone now.
I think this off-season will be a disaster. I think they will ship Ozil and Mhyki off for next to zero transfer fee because of the salaries. I think Mustafi will get shipped off for around 10m. They will look for a cheap naturally left-footed wide player to share the LM role with Iwobi. Otherwise, I would bet they are relying on Mavropanos, Smith-Rowe, Reiss-Nelson, Nketiah, Joe Willock, Maitland-Niles, Holding, Martinez et al to step up. The truth is that if any of them do in fact step up, then Arsenal will have assets to sell and make money off of. If they don’t play, how can you sell them for profit?
Ozil isn’t going anywhere. He wants to stay in London.
As you rightly point out that our young players are only worth something if we play them. If indeed we are going to bring them in the first team fold, then I can see Emery walking or being told to go. I don’t think he’s the least bit interested in player development. He’s not in it for the long term.
I don’t mind us going with the youth. It would be worse to buy players in a disjointed manner with low price tags the primary consideration.
With Griezmann now probably moving to Barcelona, Atletico might rekindle their interest in Lacazette.
They are after Dybala. Lacazette is staying at Arsenal.
Ooh, Dybala is a great choice for them! Guess it also means Allegri is staying at Juventus.
If Arsenal sold either Lacazette or Aubameyang this summer they would risk a lot of fan rage. They do seem to operate in a bubble, so it might happen, but I don’t know if they’re totally immune to the public sentiment.
Who gives a f**k what Ozil wants? It’s pretty clear Ozil and Mhyki are on intolerable salaries given what they produce. Recognizing that for an Inter, for example, to offer to pay Ozil the same 350k/week they’d ask for zero transfer fee I think that’s something we’d consider.
Ozil gives a f**k what he wants and he can refuse to sign elsewhere. His agent’s already said he’s staying. His team don’t lie about these things. Arsenal are going to have to work around it.
They could conceivably sell one of our two forwards by simply pointing to Liverpool and how selling Coutinho worked out for them. Currently there’s not much media pressure on them to not sell. Especially if they ‘reinvest’.
I’m not sure I even want Rabiot (I haven’t seen him play much) I just could see us going for him as a big name signing to replace Ramsey. We’ll still have cut our wage bill, increased our revenue from sponsors, and kept fans onside. Maybe even made the CL. That ought to keep the owners happy enough. If it’s a problem 2 years down the line, Raul will either deal with it then, or it will be someone else’s problem.
Do you have any faith that funds from selling either would actually get reinvested? I don’t. And btw – Liverpool’s reinvestment of the Coutinho money is an outlier and not typical. When Liverpool sold Suarez they blew that wad on a slew of garbage players. When Spurs sold Bale they blew that wad on a bunch of players and it took years for Erikson and Lamela to come good. Barcelona sold Neymar and then bought Dembele and Countinho, two players that are now constantly talked about as transfers out. So getting a big pay day from the sale of a superstar player does not always turn out great.
Nope. I have no faith in them. Hence the air quotes around reinvest. I was talking about the narrative they will create around any sale of either Auba or Laca.
On the other hand, I could see us buying Umtiti (Barcelona will look to sell now surely) and Rabiot on a free. While still using the players we have. Chambers/Bielik to be a backup CB/DM. Nelson and ESR to come back. Willock, Nketiah and Saka to be more involved. Oh and that Brazilian winger, Martinelli.
It is Raul’s first chance to show off, and if my reading of him is correct his preference is to ‘do business’, especially through his Barcelona contacts.
Something like this
Sell: Cech, Licht, Mustafi, Jenkinson, Elneny, Ramsey, Miki, Welbz
Buy: Umtiti, Rabiot, Martinelli
GK: Leno, Martinez, Macey/Okonkwo
LB/LWB: Kolasinac, Monreal,
CB: Kos, Sok, Umtiti, Holding, (Mavro, Bielik – future Kos n Sok)
RB/RWB: Bellerin, AMN, Osei-Tutu
DM: Torreira, Chambers, CM: Xhaka, Guen, Rabiot, Willock,
AM/WM: Ozil, ESR,
WF: Iwobi, Nelson, Saka, Martinelli
FW: Auba, Laca, Nketiah
arsenal can’t sell welbeck, ramsey, or cech.
btw, i think they were foolish for not extending welbeck, especially considering arsenal need an option in that area and the fact that he’s fit again. why not extend him one season? he was playing quite well before the injury.
why sell mustafi? sure, he made some huge gaffs early in the season but he’s had a pretty good second half of the season. he’s coming into his prime and is not nearly as bad a player as some would suggest.
lastly, i wouldn’t sell elneny unless he asked to leave. while he’s not world class, i don’t think he’s a particularly bad player. i, certainly, prefer him to the more talented xhaka. it also depends on what arsenal decide to do with chambers.
btw, i’d offer xhaka to fc bayern for €25 million and i believe they’d take him. then, i’d use that money to help purchase doucoure from watford.
Rabiot isn’t a free. He wants the £50m he’s worth in transfers added to his salary. He will cost Ozil wages.
Umtiti is valued at £100m by CIES. No chance we get him for less than £75m.
http://www.football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/b5wp/2018/239/en/
I was thinking more like 55m, courtesy Raul’s good graces and their need to sell if they’re buying 110m Griezmann, 65m De Jong, and 70m De Ligt.
We should cut our wage bill by about 650k if we have the departures I listed. Should be enough to pay both Umtiti and Rabiot, even with some of the loanees coming back.
This is more in hope than expectation though. Not the figures as much as the approach.
Rabiot… not for the wages he wants; it makes him another player virtually impossible to move on. There’s no way the new regime is risking handcuffing themselves to another player for 5 years.
i agree with jack. rabiot is certainly talented but i believe he’ll bring drama into the dressing room.
arsenal don’t really need investment from kronke. however, they need kronke to stop taking money out of the club. when he bought arsenal, he didn’t use his own money but borrowed the money and is using club profits to repay the loans. money that should be used to maintain the club is being used to repay his loans.
i hope that liverpool win the champions league and people in the u.s. take notice and begin to compare kronke to henry.
This is straight from the Donald J Trump (rip-off) playbook. Kroenke is clearly a better businessman but they align over certain things. KSE gave the Trump campaign $1 million. Kroenke’s hairpiece makes Trump’s hair look like Robert Plant’s golden locks back in the day. I f&%king hate Stan Kroenke and it is clear to me that he has zero sporting interest or passion for my club.
Last month, a Missouri court refused KSE/NFL’s requests to send the law suit over the Rams relocation into arbitration. If this puts financial pressure on KSE, Kroenke will continue to suck out even more profit from Arsenal. I hate Stan f%&king Kroenke.
Joshuad. Some interesting comments.
Not sure why you think Arsenal’s profits are being used to pay off Kroenke’s loans. When he first took over he said there was no LBO. Has that changed?
“arsenal can’t sell welbeck, ramsey, or cech.”
Yes I know. I meant their wages are off the books. Agree on Welbeck, but it’s done.
Mustafi isn’t a bad player. He’s just unreliable because of his brain dead moments. He’s also on high wages, so if they can manage it, getting rid of him will suit the club.
More upside to using Chambers/Bielik since Elneny’s not been used anyway. Not sure why Bayern will want Xhaka. Maybe Dortmund will because of Favre? But I doubt it. Best bet for him would be to go to Italy, but I think he’s going to stay. Coaches seem to like him, and I like him too provided there is a good dm behind him.
Doucoure will be out of our budget. Not sure he’s the ideal cdm for us but he is good and something like what we need. But we’re unlikely to buy from the PL. Too expensive.
Lastly, on Rabiot. I’m not sold on him or advocating for his signing. But it is a possibility because Arsenal seem unable to decide on a direction.
My feeling is that Emery will not be the coach for any youth project. He doesn’t want it, and he isn’t suited for it. So if he’s staying (he is) and we’re cutting the wage bill (we are) and especially if we’re back in the CL, then we’ll see some ‘biggish’ names join and the most likely is a guy on a free, even if it means his wages are high, because by then we’d have shed..ummm…a shedload of wages. These guys don’t care about the long term.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2018/08/07/kroenke-buying-usmanovs-arsenal-stake-in-2-2-billion-lbo/#5906dc024130
Thought – if we’re losing money as a club, maybe that’s a good thing? How long would Stan tolerate a club suffering losses and decreasing revenues? Not long. He’d probably cash in sooner rather than later.
He won’t cash in. He will tighten the belt. It’s already happening. Look at today’s post.