The 7amkickoff Index: Arsenal lose four of the last five and (nearly) crash out of top four

17 – After Herbert Chapman’s title winning Arsenal, the longest drought between League titles was 17 years (twice)
15 – Arsenal’s current League title drought is 15 years
73 – Big Chances conceded by Arsenal in the Premier League this season
69 – Big Chances conceded by Arsenal in the Premier League in 2017/18
59 – Big Chances conceded by Arsenal in the Premier League in 2016/17
35 – Big Chances conceded by Arsenal in the Premier League in 2015/16
18 – Months since Arsenal players held a team meeting asking for help with defensive coaching
46 – Big chances Arsenal conceded from January 2018 to May 2018 (2.4 per game)
23 – Big chances conceded by Arsenal from August 2017 to January 2018 (1.2 per game)
76 – Big Chances created by Arsenal in the Premier League this season
95 – Big Chances created by Arsenal in the Premier League in 2017/18
78 – Big Chances created by Arsenal in the Premier League in 2016/17
97 – Big Chances created by Arsenal in the Premier League in 2015/16

59 – Expected goals for Arsenal this season
58 – Expected goals against Arsenal this season
+1 – Expected goal difference for Arsenal this season
76 – Expected goals for Arsenal in 2017/18
55 – Expected goals against Arsenal in 2017/18
+20 – Expected goal difference for Arsenal last season
64 – Expected goals for Arsenal in 2016/17
37 – Expected goals against Arsenal in 2016/17
+27 – Expected goal difference for Arsenal in 2016/17
73 – Expected goals for Arsenal in 2015/16
33 – Expected goals against Arsenal in 2015/16
+40 – Expected goal difference for Arsenal in 2015/16


One thing that folks have said this season is that Arsenal under Unai Emery are “too conservative”. At first glance, I thought this was a crazy idea but I think that these stats bear that notion out.

Arsenal are taking fewer shots than at any time in Wenger’s years and allowing more shots than ever before. I think multiple factors play into this stat.

One factor is that the league is simply better than it was before. Another is that the Arsenal team, despite heavy investment in both transfers and salary, are nowhere near as good as they were even 10 years ago. That said, my overall impression this season is that Emery seems extremely reluctant to get his team to control matches after they go up and also seems to prefer a countering style against the other top team in the League.

Arsenal play like a mid-table team. They concede vast swathes of possession, seem happy to take on shots, and rely on good finishing from their forwards to win games. That is one style of football, of course, and has even won the League (Leicester) but it goes against conventional wisdom and all available statistical evidence. The stats say that if you want to win the League, you need to take more shots than you concede and in order to do that, you need the ball. This reluctance to own the ball also explains why Emery never turned his team into a high pressing side (or even seemingly any type of pressing side).

I’ve only been following Arsenal for 20 years but this is the worst Arsenal team I’ve ever seen. We can’t control games with possession. We can’t control games without possession. We are atrocious away from home – which is a problem that if we do not soon correct will start to eat away at the home form (I worry this has already started). We are also still an error-prone side. We rely more on fortuitous finishing than good football. And we seem to simply collapse under any pressure.

Arsenal conceded 7 big chances today. That’s the most that I have seen an Arsenal side concede in the Premier League since I started counting. It’s not a coincidence that Arsenal also had just 33% of the possession today. That’s the kind of defense/possession that Arsenal normally “enjoy” against the biggest clubs in Europe. Even against Rennes, when Papa was sent off in the 41st minute, Arsenal managed 49% of the possession.

I think the Watford game most recently was illustrative of Emery’s Arsenal and his fear of the ball. In the last 10 minutes, up 1-0, against a 10 man mid-table team, Arsenal conceded 3 shots (and it could have been more) and 49% of the ball. This is a shaky away team. The last thing we should have been doing against Watford is just giving the ball away.

It seem like something has shifted in the last few weeks. Arsenal had third place in their hands. Just keep pace with their neighbors (who were all playing against other top teams) and Arsenal would finish the season in 3rd and guarantee a Champions League berth. But four losses from the last five games, against Everton-Crystal Palace-Wolves-Leicester, have nearly sunk this team’s chances to finish even top four.

Because none of the other top six teams seem to be able to win a game at the moment, I guess mathematically Arsenal aren’t out of the Champions League race but it feels like emotionally the club have given up on the League and are focusing all of their energy on the Europa League.

Qq

3 – Matches Arsenal have played with Michael Oliver as referee this season (Man City (h), Liverpool (a), Leicester (a))
3 – Matches Arsenal have lost with Michael Oliver as referee this season

55 comments

  1. Its not the Ref., its not the players, …..its the system of the coach…..sure not working when it matters most.

  2. Ironic that at a time when we are playing so poorly, so are United and Chelsea. Even losing 3 out of 4, we could still get in if we win the last two and Leicester beats or ties Chelsea on the last day.

  3. My thanks to imothyt for the info on Big Chances Conceded. Arsenal currently are placed 10th in the Premier League table for goals conceded. This season Arsenal have conceded more goals than Newcastle, Palace, Everton, Leicester and Wolves. During the last three league games, Arsenal conceded 9 goals. You have to think that relatively poor defense is due to relatively poor defensive organization, at least in part, which the team’s management is responsible for.

    1. I think you are right. We have to be patient. We have completely changed the way we defend this year. Instead of dropping back in two banks of 4 we press in the defensive half. This is difficult for players that have never played his system, and our offside trap in particular has been awful.

      People wanted change and change is disruptive. Even so, we are making a decent challenge at the top 4 and the UEFA Cup. It will be better next year when the players have more experience with the system and the manager has been able to bring in a few players perhaps better suited to the system.

  4. Top three was always a computer scheduling induced pipe dream but top four , I thought , was a real possibility.

    Now it’s a long shot but not because Chelsea look solid or anything but rather because our confidence has been shot to pieces in such a manner that we may not gain another point in the league.

    Were that to happen I think Kroenke should consider cutting his losses and start looking for another coach.

    1. Since Emery’s on a 2+1 contract and the club is pinching pennies, I imagine there’s no scenario outside of Unai mooning Mrs Kroenke that sees him gone this summer. Next summer, if there are no obvious improvements (i.e. a CL place), perhaps.

    2. Your “no more points” fear is quite founded, actually. Between current form of the teams involved, and mitigation for the Europa League demanding more attention, a draw with Brighton and a loss at Burnley isn’t too far-fetched. Just one point, out of 6, more than the 0 you fear.

  5. I think your last point is right on. Look at Spurs’ form after beating Man City, and ours after Napoli. Both teams have switched focus. Not saying that as an excuse; teams should be able to concentrate on multiple competitions, but I think when you get deep into one, it can be difficult.

    As for the stats, not good. However, this is a massive transition year, one of the greatest upheavals in the history of the club. You don’t go from one manager in charge of everything for 22 years to a new ‘coach’, wholesale change in backroom and director staff, and the departure of a CEO without an effect on performance.

    I’m still urging patience. Let’s see what happens after next season before condemning Emery on supposed failed promises.

    One thing I have liked this season is our performances against the other top six sides; we didn’t win all of them, but we played them much smarter than we did under late Wenger. I think Emery is learning that the focus has to be just like that for the supposed ‘lesser’ teams as well.

    A big priority for next season is the improvement of our away form. And replacing Ramsey (how we’ve missed him, and how we will miss him, and no, I have no idea how to replace hime). And defense defense defense. I don’t want to see AMN at RB anymore, I don’t want to see Mustafi at CB, and I’m not sure (?) I want Kolasinac at LB/LWB anymore.

    Everything’s on the Europa League now. I think we can do it, and that would be wonderful.

    1. If Arsenal fail to register another point in the League and crash out of Europe against Valencia, would you still give Emery more time?

      1. Yes, I would. I think we all should. Klopp’s Liverpool finished 7th (or was it 8th?) in his first season, and 4th the next. Granted, he wasn’t in charge for the whole of that first season, but I think we might consider it instructive. I’m not saying Emery will turn into Klopp, but I think he deserves two seasons to show us what he’s got.

        1. But with Klopp, there was a clear style he was trying to implement, and even in his first couple of seasons, you could see progress towards that style. You knew what he was trying to build. What is our style? We’re not ‘protagonists.’ We’re not a possession team. We’re not a team built on defense. What’s our formation? It changes every game. Do we have any other attacking identity other than the Kolasinac cutback? Or hoping Ozil or Ramsey (now that they actually get played) create something from nothing? I don’t see what we are working towards. Emery chops and changes both his personnel and formation every game. Tactical flexibility is a good thing, but there’s a big difference between being tactically flexible and not knowing what your best lineup is a year in. The players look confused about what we’re trying to do. That’s not flexibility, that’s poor coaching.

          1. To be clear, I’m not necessarily saying Emery should be sacked. I just think that there are big differences between Klopp and Pep’s first years and Emery’s.

          2. Nobody was talking about “progress to style” in Klopp’s first season. The comparison works both ways, I’m afraid. Sorry.

        2. you can’t compare klopp to emery. klopp has the pedigree of winning two bundesliga titles against the biggest team in germany and advancing to a champions league final twice. what has emery done? he’s won the europa league. he’s won a few domestic trophies in a mickey mouse league with a team that had unlimited financial resources. that’s it. despite his vast resources, he’s also managed to not win the league and has never gotten anywhere near a champions league final.

          there are levels to this. klopp has proven that he can get it done at the top level. emery has proven he can win cup competitions at a lower level. i don’t count what he won in france because someone was tipping the scales there. its’ not to say that he can’t do it but i’m saying he hasn’t even come close to proving it yet.

          1. So you’re saying Klopp is far superior to Emery. And yet, despite this vast superiority only managed 8th in his first season and 4th in his next? And so because this inferior Emery is on course to 5th in his first season, this means…oh……..

            Erm.

            Problems with argument.

          2. in klopp’s first full season, liverpool finished 4th and came from a much further way down than arsenal who finished 5th last season and look set to finish 5th again. the main point is the klopp has the pedigree to get it done and you could see where liverpool were going in learning his press. we can’t say that about where arsenal are going.

          3. Great post Josh and one i fully endorse. U E is a good manager of smaller/mid table teams and sadly thats what he is turning us into.

        3. … for perspective, do you know that, assuming liverpool win their last two league games, that man city will have to register 98 points to beat liverpool to the title? do you know how many times a team has scored 98 points in the premier league? once, man city last year. the ’99 treble-winning man united team and the invincibles arsenal team couldn’t even match that. that’s how good klopp is. it’s unfair to compare klopp to emery.

        4. Sorry, I have been massively let down. As far as I can tell he hasn’t fulfilled any of his promises and we have regressed going forward. In a way this is like Obama – I really like Emery personally but he keeps promising things and nothing gets done or does it in a way that I don’t like.

          If he wins the Europa League, you have to keep him. If we bomb out of that competition, I would fire him. And here’s the logic why.

          Presumably he’s going to be allowed to but a couple players this summer. That means he’s in charge of building this team for the next four years.

          But you won’t know what his team is going to play like until about 10 games in to next season.

          If we are playing the same then as we are now we will be well and truly fucked because by then you really can’t fire him and expect to turn things around and he’s also not going to turn things around on his own. It’s not going to suddenly start clicking.

          There’s also the danger that we get 19 games in, don’t renew his contract, and the team stops playing for him at all.

          So you either fire him this summer or stick with him for next year and suffer the consequences of that decision. Which I think could see Arsenal in 10th-12th place.

          That said, this is all moot: Kroenke won’t fire him. No chance. He probably won’t even back him much this summer in the transfer market. Kroenke bought this guy to be the patsy. His job is to absorb the criticism that should be directed at the executives of this club and he’s doing a fantastic job at that. When Arsenal drop to mid-table after all the cost cutting this summer, we will all blame Emery. Then the club can just let him go, with no payout. And they can bring in a new guy and start the whole process over again.

          When Emery talks about “the Process” that’s what I think of – the process at Arsenal of hiring managers, not backing them to win, firing them, then starting over again. It will probably be another 5 years before fans catch on and start calling for Sanllehi to be fired. At least, that’s how I’ve seen this all play out at other teams.

          Anyway.

          1. It will probably be another 5 years before fans catch on and start calling for Sanllehi to be fired.

            I don’t know, I am on that wavelength since the dismissal of Mislintat. Sanllehi seems to be capable only of firing people and not doing anything constructive so far. Seems like he has no plan (unless Kroenke’s plan is to have no plan, in this case he is executing it very good).
            This doesn’t take away the feeling that Emery has not done a good job this year at Arsenal, but might explain at least some of the reasons why.

            #SanllehiOut

          2. I’ve been calling for Sanllehi to be fired since he made the decision to withdraw Ramsey’s contract. Maybe it’s a bit OTT but I really do believe he will be the ruin of Arsenal, and honestly, I think he’s more interested in doing the business with agents than he is in football. Kroenke gets to cut costs, Raul does his business, the coach takes the blame, and the fans suffer.

            The very fact that we have no one guiding the team’s transfers and overall style since Sven left is crazy. For all the criticism that it used to be before, Arsenal are now a football club last.

        5. There’s some cherry-picking here, and some important facts ignored. The reason why Liverpool finished 8th in the Premier League is because they focused on cup competitions, reaching the League Cup final and the Europa League final.
          Also, Klopp did better than Rodgers although he couldn’t sign any player (because he only arrived in October). The Reds were 10th in the league after Klopp’s arrival, so 8th is an improvement.
          So there’s no comparison with Emery because Emery had an entire summer to prepare his squad and the club signed 5 players for him.

  6. Emery should not be going anywhere. Thinking that way is, to put it mildly, short sighted. It’s another matter however, for several our starters/veterans. That our campaign fell off the wheels after Ramsey’s season ending hamstring injury is as much down to the players as the coach or other factors.

    The list of who should go is long and there are money losers on which we absolutely must take a loss and clear out. We are in firmly in the no pain, no gain scenario. If there ever was a time for some academy youngsters to breakout it is next season. Emile Smith-Rowe I’m looking at you, among others.

  7. A bit off topic, but I’d cut off my left hand if we could magically poach both Erik Ten Hag and Overmars from Ajax. Hell, I’d rather see Overmars on the pitch for us even now than half of these players!

    Hoping Ajax advance and pull off the upset in the final. Their speed, fluidity, and aggression on the pitch are what I would love to see from us again.

    Are we ever going to appoint a technical director? The mismanagement of our club is criminally neglectful.

  8. Ozil has caught a ton of flak this year from fans, but it seemed like we really miss the the control and possession that his presence provides us. Very few of our players seem comfortable receiving a pass when marked and either creating space with the first touch or keeping the ball moving with a quick pass. Even in games where he ‘goes missing,’ that little bit of extra control, fluidity, and incisiveness is really missed.

    I know that he has been declining for a while now, but nobody else in our squad has that superb level of technical ability anymore, aside from maybe Ramsey. The overall technical ability of our players has been declining for years now, but this year it has seemed to drop off a cliff.

  9. tim, you’re absolutely right. away from home, arsenal have been dreadful. add to that, arsenal have assumed a new identity under unai emery. i said this before but sg_gooner just said it again on the previous thread to remind me: arsenal have a small team mentality. that’s great when arsenal play the big-6 teams. however, arsenal are viewed as a big-6 team by the teams lower in the table. as a result, these lower teams bring their a-game, looking for an upset against arsenal; a cup final approach.

    it seems emery hasn’t grasped this concept yet. as a result, arsenal struggle mightily away from home against these teams, not respecting their intense desire to get a result. emery has to instill the desire to win every single game into these players, especially the games they’re “supposed” to win. if he can’t do that, arsenal will become one of those teams looking up at the big 6.

    1. “it seems emery hasn’t grasped this concept yet”

      I see it that way too.
      So maybe he’s used this year to learn the league. From next year we can give a fair judgment of his work.

  10. do you know, if it weren’t for bernd leno, arsenal would have been absolutely routed today?

    1. If Leicester weren’t as wasteful as they were, I could easily imagine another 6-0. It still baffles me how easily they scored the first goal. We had all 3 centerbacks in the box, yet Tielemans was allowed free header… Too many ball watchers 🙁

  11. guess who was at fault for the first goal? our ball-watching cdm. not just on that goal but several times he allowed the leicester player behind him, exposing our back line.

  12. Spring Cleaning List:

    Players who need to go:
    Lich, Mustafi, Jenkinson, Mkhi, El Neny

    Players who are aging quickly and may have one season left:
    Monreal, Koscielny,

    Players who need to be “upgraded”:
    Kolasinac, Xhaka

    Players who need to show progress or go:
    Iwobi, Bellerin

    Players on whom’st’ve “the jury is still out”:
    AMN, Nketiah, Guendouzi

    Players I’m comfortable keeping:
    Torreira, Laca, Aubameyang, Özil, Sokratis, Holdini

    Players on loan: Reiss Nelson, Chambers, some others

    Did I miss anyone?

    1. Players that didn’t need to go:
      Ramsey

      Players that need to come as a replacement for the big holes left after your proposed cleanup:

      .

  13. Chances are high that “Benign Neglect” will become the standard now that Silent Stan owns us lock, stock and barrel.

    What’s in it for a sports mogul from America with an already big portfolio of profitable American major league teams and with zero pedigree in English/European football?

    Can he make the same money with a successful Rams team as with a mediocre Arsenal team? Who knows? How much does care, if at all? And none of us are getting any younger, him included.

    If he showed an ounce of real passion, even if not the big financial commitment necessary I might be a bit more optimistic. Instead, what I believe is a long period of mediocrity is about to descend upon us.

    I am desperate to think otherwise and would be overjoyed if wrong.

    1. The one reason I don’t put too much value in comparisons between Arsenal and the KSE franchises in the US is that Arsenal is (to my knowledge) the only KSE entity operating in a structure where relegation exists in many forms (actual league relegation, or mini-league relegation e.g. dropping out of the top 4). I would hope that this informs at least some of their thinking around Arsenal. But I don’t do hope much lately…

  14. Emery out. Its delusional to expect anything better from him next season without massive investment. Massive investment that we cant or wont make. He was supposed to improve the team. We are atrocious at football and I miss our football being entertaining, even if we didn’t challenge. This current version is depressing.

    1. This is the kind of mentality that defines small clubs and Chelsea. Instant results or bust.

      Please.

      1. He is write, Emery cant win anything in 10 years with this level of investment in the playing staff, the guy is really average. As for those thinking of his 3 europa leagues, that was when the europa has no meaning to the big clubs in europe. its different now that winning it qualify you for champions leagus

  15. My take is quite simple. Until two weeks ago third looked very achievable and fourth place a shoe-in. The recent collapse has been difficult to comprehend. Instead of four losses in five, three draws would have made our current predicament much more positive. It’s too early to post-analyse the season. We’ve four, possibly five matches still to play and CL qualifcation and/or an EL Cup win would paper the current cracks. Conversely fail to qualify for CL having had it literally within our grasp and it will be difficult for the team and the fans to continue to believe in Emery. Both Arseblog and Le Grove (and this is a rare coincidence) posted measured assessments which reflect where my head has been for some time; that Emery is a meddler, without a style and lacks the chutzpah to compete at this level. I just hope he doesn’t fail to get us CL football this Summer as there is a growing sentiment of apathy amongst fans and it would be a real shame to revert so quickly to the late-Wenger levels of disenchantment. If it was my call I’d swap Emery out this Summer regardless of what he achieves. That may sound harsh to some but I’ve made a successful career reading people and whether they can deliver on their words and are capable of changing. And my instincts (and the stats) say this kid won’t cut it

    1. Agree Matt. He (UE) Simply wont change no matter who we bring in. For me, who watched his 1st game at Highbury when Jesus wore shorts, a 3 0 demolition of utd (including their own holy trinity of Best, Law & Charlton) circa 67/8 i would personally start again nxt season and go for Nuno E S

  16. early in the season, the team did relatively well. that happens with a new coach. players are excited with a new direction, clean slate, and are determined to make an impact. with that, the results are typically better than expected. however, with time, that excitement fades and a team returns to their mean. do you guys remember a few months back when that happened? people wanted emery gone then.

    what did emery do when he began to feel the heat? re-introduce mesut ozil and aaron ramsey. two of the team’s better performers provided another moment of excitement. prophetically, that excitement also faded and arsenal have reverted to their mean yet again.

    my bottom line, two fleeting moments of form are not an indicator of team improvement. we all know that form is temporary. emery interviewed, touting how he could improve the players arsenal had, meaning they didn’t need to buy. i have no doubt of emery’s ability to develop players. in theory, having better players means a better team. however, better players doesn’t necessarily make a better team. we watched the galacticos, the most talented team in football history, fail to win a trophy for 4 years after selling makalele to chelsea.

    good coaches make players better. good managers make teams better. i think emery’s a great coach but lacks the pedigree to be a great manager for a team like arsenal. with that, i wouldn’t be surprised if the club persisted with him; they seem to be more about money and less about team performances. we’ll see.

    1. mark hughes, david moyes, brendan rodgers, graeme souness, roy hodgson…..we’ve seen managers like these find huge success with small sides and be given a chance with bigger teams, only to fall flat on their faces. unai emery seems to fit that mold.

    2. Josh – I agree that Emery has had a couple of flashes of good form, and a lot of bad form. And yes, good coaches make players better. But 2 coaches have brought us very middling results with this team.
      The roster is just not very good, or very balanced. We are reverting to the mean – and the mean for this roster is 5th or 6th place. But we couldn’t muster the budget for a decent wing player in January when it was clear that would have made an impact? Or a CB? And we don’t have a technical director in place for the summer? Sure, Emery isn’t great, but our problems run deeper than Emery. The owner won’t give us a budget to work with, our management team is a mess, and we have a roster that’s grossly overpaid, old, slow, and imbalanced. It’s possible we might think back on Wenger’s last year and Emery’s tenure and say, “It’s a wonder we finished 5th.” It’s very possible we are overperforming given the state of our once-brilliant club.

  17. I worry about the Emery 2+1 contract.

    Personally, I would give him time now, but we also need to be realistic as to whether he is on track to have the extra year and when would we would push the button to extend.

    Raul needs to think about this now, as if there are material concerns will that mean any transfer budget and player decisions are restricted because management are not fully behind the Emery project.

  18. That was pretty dismal. To get outclassed by Brendan Rodgers.

    Anyway, if we did fire Emery, which I would say is really unlikely regardless of how the season finishes out, who would we get? Arteta? He was Gazidis’ boy. Sanhelli will just grab Quique Sanchez-Florez or guys like that, middling Spanish managers that can do a job for a season or two without complaining about the lack of investment before getting exposed. We’re hamsters on the treadmill now.

  19. Over the last few years, a question kept going through a lot of our minds, “Is this team just a few players away from being a contender, or is it in need of a complete overhaul?” That answer is now clear. Not one of our players makes the first XI on any other top 6 team. Literally not one. Go up and down our squad and find one. Maybe Auba plays for Chelsea. Maybe Ramsey. Maybe. That’s not to say a team needs a superstar at every position, but our team is a combination of old, slow, not technically skilled enough, and inexperienced. We are really lacking in pace. We are not physical enough, and we don’t play with conviction. We don’t have a great XI, let alone any depth that can weather an injury or suspension. Just dreadful.
    Now that doesn’t excuse Emery for his tactical tinkering and failing to improve our players, but no one is taking this team and molding it into something great. No one. Emery has an owner with no budget, no support from management, no technical director and no roster. What coach shines in that setting? Again, I’m not saying he’s brilliant – far from it. But given our situation, who wants this job? Who’s going to do better? It goes way beyond Emery.

  20. in response to a previous comment about who to replace the outgoing players with, I was wondering what the stats and thoughts about Ruben Neves are?
    Is he actually quite good, or just another Elneny, by which i mean efficient with the ball without ever being effective, with added ability to take free kicks? Also is it possible to ban the word “mate”? i think it has quite easily surpassed “moist” as my most hated word.

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