I tweeted yesterday that Arsenal lead the League in errors (for the second season running) and I have to admit that I was wrong. Arsenal are actually tied for 2nd in errors leading to a goal (10 – with Bournemouth, 1 behind Fulham) and tied for 2nd in total goals conceded off errors (errors, pens, and own goals) with 17 (again tied with Bournemouth and 3 total behind Fulham). So, there you have it, I was wrong: Arsenal are the 2nd sloppiest team in the League.
That said, there is one category that Arsenal just edge the rest of the League and that is in goals conceded off errors as a percentage of total goals conceded. In other words, take the number of errorific goals (17) and divide it by the number of goals conceded (43) and you get 40%. So, 40% of Arsenal’s goals conceded are because of errors. This season, the League average is 25%. About a quarter of all the goals conceded have been from errors.
This 40% goals conceded off individual errors is shared with Tottenham, actually, this season. Normally not error-prone, Tottenham have had a pretty shaky defensive season this year and 14 of their 35 goals conceded have come from errors.
But this 40% goals off errors shows us another interesting aspect of Arsenal over the last two years. It confirms supporters frustrations with certain players. These are individual errors – passing the ball to an opponent 20 yards from goal, dropping easy crosses, trying to hold off an opponent when the keeper hasn’t given you a shout. Those errors are less about the team than about individual players making glaring mistakes.
You can argue with the way that Opta gather this statistic. You can find them on Twitter, please have a conversation with them. I find it passes what I call the “eye test” and if anything, I think that they are a bit too lenient at times with assigning errors. I think Arsenal make more mistakes than these numbers show.
If this was a one-off for Arsenal I wouldn’t be too concerned but this is a continuation of the problems Wenger experienced last season. Wenger’s Arsenal conceded 15 goals off errors last season, which was a marked increase from 4 the season before and 5 in 2015/16. Wenger’s defensive schemes often had these types of peaks and valleys – going back to 2012/13 Arsenal conceded 14 goals off individual errors. which he reduced to 10 the next season and then 8, 5, and then 4 before blowing up again in 2017/18.
- 2012/13 – 14
- 2013/14 – 10
- 2014/15 – 8
- 2015/16 – 5
- 2016/17 – 4
- 2017/18 – 15
- 2018/19 – 17
Other top clubs in our league still concede about 25% of their total goals off errors. Liverpool and Chelsea have both conceded joint fewest goals off individual errors with 5 and Man City are second best with 6 goals total conceded off individual errors. For Liverpool and Man City that is 25% and 27% of their total goals scored. For Chelsea it’s only 13% – their problem is conceding from set plays this year.
My initial thoughts were that attacking teams (Bournemouth, Arsenal, Fulham) suffered errors more than others. But this low errors data for teams like Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, and even Wolverhampton (10) indicates to me that you can be both an attacking team and well drilled in defense.
This isn’t just about buying players. Nor is it just about having a defensive midfielder to gobble up all the errors that his teammates concede. These teams use very different systems to protect their goals and are well drilled to prevent the odd slip-up.
And there is one more stat that I have failed to mention: errors leading to a shot. These are the errors that led to a shot but not a goal. Arsenal are third in the League in that category with 15 (Leicester lead the league with 19). When you add all of the own goals, errors for shots, penalties conceded, and errors for goals (which are all different events, no double-dipping stats here) Arsenal have 32 this season, the same number as last season which was the worst since 2013/14.
I don’t think of any of this as a criticism of Unai Emery. This just highlights the size of the task that Emery has ahead of him in terms of revamping and drilling the squad. And the good news is that Emery’s record is pretty good at doing just that. His first season, PSG were 3rd (worst, 21 errors) in the “errors table” and his second season they were 10th (10 errors). I don’t expect to see that much improvement from him next season because I doubt that Arsenal are going to invest £200m in players but I do expect him to be allowed to move some players out and get in players who he thinks will fit his system.
Source: sofascore.com – Please go look at Arsenal to see which players have committed the most errors this season and last (hint; XHAKA).
I’m sure if the statistics were broken down further to determine which players are the biggest culprits, my thoughts are that aside from the odd Lacazette give-away in midfield this season the errorists are going to overwhelmingly be Mustafi and Xhaka with some heavier participation from Guendouzi, who at least is young and can be forgiven. It might be a matter of addition by subtraction this summer.
2016-17 with only 4 errors per game was the season we bought Mustafi and had that long unbeaten run with him in the lineup. My, how things have changed.
Bellerin leads in errors for shots – 3 – and has Arsenal’s only own goal.
Both Torreira and Guendouzi have 2 errors for shots, Guendouzi is culpable for one of Arsenal’s errors for a goal.
Xhaka has 2 errors for 2 goals, a penalty conceded, and another error for a shot.
Mustafi has conceded 2 penalties and has an error for a goal (they don’t seem to be counting the one from this weekend, not sure why).
Last season, Xhaka led all non-keepers (Cech had 6 errors for goals) with 3 errors for goals. Mustafi had 2. Bellerin was just as error prone last season as this: 1 error for a goal, 2 penalties conceded, and 3 errors for a shot.
And two seasons ago it was Xhaka again leading the charge: 2 pens conceded, 1 error for a goal, 1 error for a shot.
Mostly, the errors at Arsenal flow from Xhaka. This doesn’t count how many goals we’ve conceded because he can’t tackle, because his man just runs past him, because he fouls for a free kick, or any of the other many problems he gifts Arsenal’s defense.
Thanks Tim. I actually made a comment on the previous blog post, about the errors being mostly down to the players we had.
I made this assertion based on a simple eye test. I’m glad you are confirming this notion with stats.
I really think these individual errors impact the team psychology more at the end of the season.
Bad, but also an opportunity.
We may not have 200m to spend, but if we’re smart about it, we should have enough after sales.
I’m still not convinced by Emery (nor his bosses) but qualifying for the CL will be a legitimate boost for us, not just financially but also in terms of reputation and attracting players. Next season we should see more of what Emery has in mind, especially with no international tournament to distract from the pre season build up. I’d expect the figures to improve next season.
We devolve into absolute freak-out terror when a team breaks on us. After that, it’s pure skating, sliding improv. Since the start of the year we have got better at holding our shape defensively, and have got better at defensive actions like shot blocking. It would be interesting to see a half season by half season comparison, but my eyes tell me that we have improved in recent times. Sunday was the worst that we’ve played defensively for some time.
And although Mustafi is the pin-up boy for errors, it runs through the team. Bellerin, Nacho, Xhaka… even Sokratis has had his bad moments, although he is one of out two best defenders (along with Koscielny). Lacazette has made a couple that I can remember leading directly to goals.
Defending with disciplined banks when a team is moving the ball from their half to ours is different from transition defending, on which we often lack composure. I dont know enough to say whether that is a function of coaching, or having the wrong players.
I do know that our secondary defenders are poor. Kolasinac, Iwobi, Mesut, Xhaka, Aubameyang and occasionals like Elneny are poor tacklers. Even Guendouzi, who does his share of winning, does a fair bit of defensive switching off. Torreira, Koscielny, Lacazette and even the reborn Ramsey are outstanding exceptions to defending by the non-specialist defender players.
A shout out to our goalkeeper, who is top class. We’d be worse off without him.
hey Tim, my totally non-offensive comment got eaten by the mod monster…
Enjoyed this deep dive, many thanks, muchos gracias, shukriya. What it tells is that the issues at the other end of the pitch are also out undoing. We are not finishing with anywhere near the aplomb necessary to offset our defensive inadequacy. We are bad defensively but not completely abject. And we are good offensively but not anywhere near what’s required to score enough goals.
I need to also show another aspect: how bad are Arsenal at giving away goals compared to other top clubs and
Umm, don’t do it dude. Waste of your precious time. Go with my guess: really f&$king bad. Do I need to say his name? Mmustafi….!
their midfielders. Midfielders tend to be “the problem”. Probably with posession stats
Imagine a healthy, in-form, 26-year old Santi Cazorla who could play us out the back and string together both sides of the pitch right now …
Surely Emery would deserve manager of the season for getting this squad to 4th and/or EL winners. Three key injuries for most of the season and a dysfunctional, unbalanced squad with a sprinkling of world class talent should not be beating teams as expensive as United and Chelsea.
As depressing as it is seeing the same old errors recurring again and again with Mustafi et al. I would have bitten your hand off for this league position and current progress in the EL if you’d offered it in September. Some perspective is needed methinks.
Your point is well taken but I think what disappoints and frustrates me is that I believe we have it in us, as an a VERY expensively assembled team, to be much, much better than the displays we complain about. Despite injuries, schedule, wtc. there is no excuse for losing to CP at home. Not when there’s so much as stake and other results favored us.
Ha, I feel like this has been my life as a Gunner ever since 2006: we have moments of brilliance, perform terribly and just when I lose all hope we play brilliantly again. I feel like Arsenal’s single biggest strength is bringing me to the brink of despair and them pulling me right back again and again.
There is potential here and if we move on players who are clear liabilities and the stars align, who knows what will happen?
Auba’s goal had me tweeting the Michael Corleone, just when I thought I was out gif. I guess following Arsenal is a bit like that in general, haha.
That would depend on what Liverpool do in the CL.
If they win it, Klopp will get it regardless how the rest of the PL pans out.
Liverpool should win their remaining games and finish on 97 points,which would be a 22 points improvement on last season.
If they fail to win the CL and City win the PL , Guardiola will be the manager of the season for winning the treble.
Either way I don’t think Emery gets it.
Arsenal just haven’t played that kind of football this season.
Mate, what did I say about great power and great responsibility..hahah
Ok pretty potent stats. So hard to disagree when you lay it down like that and argue it even better. Listen, I don’t think the problem is personnel/ability. I think it is application. Sometimes the guys lose concentration..They show they can do it so many times (Napoli dispatched with ease/Chelsae/Totts home and Away etc) but other times take games for granted. Remember the crazy stat you showed that Leno saves better at home than away…What do we do? Keep Leno at home and get a different away Keeper.. Just small mental tweaks needed..
Another example set-pieces: the boys know they have to focus and do. Arsenal have conceded the fewest set piece goals in the premier league. But no one talks about this because you have preserve the media narrative that Arsenal can’t defend/are small/can be bullied. Please, Please can you do a stato on that …Even the Thursday-Sunday Europa league combo can cause players to flip in concentration/focus. We see it all times when Champ league teams fall into Europa league..
Finally Xhaka (who I love). Arsenal have two creative hubs/foci One deep: Always Xhaka and one forward: Ozil if he plays. Now if you’re an opposing team, if you do not have the ball who are you going to press and close down? Obviously a creative nucleus and preferably the one furthest from your goal. So you see different players are targeted and more likely to make mistakes etc. The deep distributor is the principal target. Also Xhaka plays loads of games and pretty much always starts if fit. Mate we all love heroes and scape-goats…but I think you miss it a bit with Xhaka and even Musti
Xhaka isnt “creative” at all. Yes, he’s one of Emery’s important fulcrums (?) and he’s good for a few goals a season from distance, but he’s not creative. Xhaka — most of the time to me — is a maddeningly conservative passer. He’s got a good diagonal, but a high proportion of his passing is backwards of sideways. He is rarely an unlocker. Guendouzi is a better forward passer than he is. See Mavropanos’ shirt tug that led to the Palace free kick from which they scored? That was pure Xhaka.
Haha ok Claudeivan, mate. I see where you are coming from. But I think you’ve been reading too much of Tim’s blog. He’s a really persuasive guy. I was totally eating out of his hand too after that Abou Diaby post a while ago. But, listen my main point is that Unai deploys Xhaka as the deep distributor. Whether we agree on whether Xhaka is great passer or not (but he is great passer) he is a deployed as a creative hub. So he is a primary target for opposition press.
I should probably know better than to get into this with you, but the fact that you accuse Tim of being manipulative in his writing, and the rest of us as cult members who got caught in his net is getting really annoying. You don’t actually engage in conversation, much as you pretend to. Your veiled accusations say more than you realise about what your approach to commenting and reading is.
Just my two cents. Mate.
mate, mate, 100% not accusing Tim of being manipulative. You totally misread me. I am totally sorry if I gave you or anyone this impression. No manipulative is manipulative and persuasive is persuasive. If anyone of writes something they try to persuade someone about their point of view, no to manipulate. Manipulation requires power and control. Tim doesn’t have that over us. But I am really sorry again. Totally didn’t mean that. Mate let me give you an example. I was totally surprised by our result against Napoli; but I was only surprised because everywhere I looked, people were saying we had no chance especially with away form. They weren’t manipulating me, it was just hearing this all the time made me believe it. This is just how this works. It is allowed for us to have different opinions. That is OK. It is not alright for me to accuse anyone of manipulation. I am really sorry I didn’t mean that.
I don’t know. Xhaka should/could be creative. Is it the system I wonder. The fact that we seem to not play through the middle anymore, and that he’s usually paired with a Torreira or Guendouzi instead of a Ramsey that causes his conservative passing. His long diagonals are often spectacular but they don’t seem to be his bread and butter (probably because he needs too much time on the ball for them)
Shard mate, I am totally going straight to your argument here. I am not really talking about how creative Xhaka is or not. I am talking about his role. His role is a creator, that is not Torreira’s role or Guen’s. So you can see why opposition teams would target him with a press potentially leading to more mistakes/turn overs leading to goals. Also now I come to think about he also played a lot of time out of position in left back for the team.. This would also lead to mistakes and goals. In fact I think it led to the Zaha “penalty” at crystal palace…Do you see my point?
faith, i don’t agree with you and i do. i don’t in that a cdm is not necessarily a creative hub. that comes down to the skill of the player; not every cdm is a pirlo, busquets, or even a cazorla. in fact, most aren’t. most creative players become cdm’s later in their career because of their experience and their ability to control the game better than everyone else. but i warn, we shouldn’t expect all players to play that position the way the aforementioned players did because they were all very unique talents.
however, i totally agree with you that the cdm is a very good player to target for a press. in fact, he’s the best target. if you can catch him receiving the ball in his own half and facing his own goal and he doesn’t recognize the press early enough, it can be a catastrophe. it’s why so many cdms, not just the arsenal cdms, make so many backward/lateral passes in their own half. they, absolutely, can not lose the ball there. if you lose the ball out wide, you have more time to adjust to the situation. if the cdm loses the ball in his half and in the middle of the park, there’s very little time to prepare for the impending counter. more importantly, it’s so easy to disguise plays or set traps for a cdm in that situation.
a few years ago, arsenal played man united and the front line consisted of iwobi, lacazette, and welbeck. whenever united tried to play out from the back, arsenal compressed the field and had iwobi and welbz forcing everything to the center, making the field narrow. that meant the defenders had to play the ball either to the cdm or play a long ball to progress the ball forward. because most fullbacks play on the side with their stronger foot, these are very difficult passes. likewise, the cdm always struggles to get a foothold in the game, continually facing his own goal and never really gets into a flow. this is a dynamite strategy (because i use it, lol) and i wished arsenal used it more. arsenal were able to dominate the game because they didn’t allow man united to get into a rhythm in the back, particularly their cdm.
Joshuad, fair points well made. I remember on game at Old Trafford when Wayne Rooney was tasked to sit on Arteta (our former deep distributor)
i don’t like to imply that players are “error-prone” or “injury-prone”. it’s such a narrow-minded perspective, as if a player decides, “hey, i’m gonna blow the game or rupture my achilles today”.
what i like to do is draw a clear line on whether a player has made a mistake or is a bad soccer player. anybody can make a mistake, such is the nature of man. however, when a player makes the same mistake continually, that’s no longer a mistake. it’s bad soccer.
a player has two options when he steps onto the field; win or learn. the error mustafi made on sunday wasn’t down to technique. it was a cognitive error. it was a poor decision, considering the situation, which is the very definition of a tactical error. the good news is that cognitive skills can be developed and they will make any player exponentially better. consider virgil van dijk. he’s not more talented than most players but he’s the very poster child for tactical soundness, which makes him world class. compare him to thomas vermaelen, who was as gifted a defender we’ve ever seen but a tactical clown.
we know that wenger did neither strategy nor tactics. wenger was a motivator who drew wolves. what is emery?
I don’t know Josh, but I look at VVD and I see a specimen of a player.
Tall, strong , fast and with above average techinical ability.
Call it talent or whatever but it’s easier for a player with his physical attributes to stay calm under pressure , or “ nonchalant “ – to use Arsenal scouting report’s description, then for a player like Mustafi for example.
One of the reasons VVD doesn’t do things like shirt pulling or rash slide tackling is because he knows not many can run away from him or beat him of the dribble.
On injury issues, there are definitely players who are injury prone.
Whatever the reason for it, whether it be accumulation of past injuries
( Wilshere), or even Ramsey with his hamstrings.
Has there even been one season Ramsey didn’t miss a spell because of his hamstrings?
If we’re the second most mistake laden team in the league but still in with a shout for third at this stage, is our defending from other situations particularly good? How do we compare to everyone else in those areas?
If we were to bring our mistakes down to the league average (was that 25%?) how much better off would we be?
It’s the attack. You can cover up a lot of bad defense with attack.
Our defending at set pieces has been particularly good for the last two years.
Our main problems has been transitions and interceptions. Transitions in that quite often once we retrieve the ball, players rush to the attack leaving our defenders exposed. Same thing with interception, quite often there is no second players to slow the opposition.
Hence the year where we had a low count is the year where Coquelin ans Cazorla played together. Cazorla and his quick feet were rarely dispossessed. And even when we were intercepted, constable Coquelin was there to stop or commit a foul.
The problem stats is showing is that our system of trying to play from the back is much more susceptible to high pressing and that we have players who are very one footed so can be easily dispossessed.
By retrieving the ball high from Bellerin, Mustafi or Xhaka our opponents have a quick and effective way to score.