Arsenal back in 4th with surprise win over Watford’s Moose

Back in the Wenger hay day I was in a hotel room in Munich with a bunch of the Tollington Gooners. After many beers, and a spilled red wine on the carpet, the topic turned to Arsene Wenger and whether I was Wenger Out or not. Mind you this was 2013 and I was still very much in Wenger’s corner – I pointed out that we were all there in Munich because Wenger was still a good manager and that he was still getting us 4th place. The discussion was lively but respectful and one of the, sort of more Wenger Out, guys dropped a metaphor that stuck with me ever since: if you took a taxi ride and the driver was all over the place but you arrived at your destination and on time, would you complain about the ride?

It didn’t convince me to switch sides but I finally understood why some people were more upset about Arsenal than others. The ride was definitely less than fun at times. I mean, it would get worse. Way worse. But even back then there were some really bumpy days.

I’ve heard a lot of supporters are upset by yesterday’s taxi ride and I guess I get it. There were a few nervy minutes at the end of the Watford match, Andre Grey had Watford’s only real chance of the game in the 79th minute – a 0.79xG shot blocked by Ainsley Maitland-Niles. But other than that Watford only created 0.34 xG in 90+ minutes.

And Arsenal were quite unlucky in this game. Both Mkhitaryan and Aubameyang missed huge chances (0.62xG each!) in front of goal in the 2nd half. And that is only counting the shots we took! Aubameyang had a number of chances go begging, Mkhitaryan played a wonderful cross that was just slightly too strong for Ozil, Ozil had at least two big chances spurned, and Guendouzi fluffed his lines once and played a cross in that was just behind the attacker. And I’m not even counting the number of times that Aubameyang was caught offside when he would have been in acres of space if he’d just held his nerve a nano-second longer.

I hear that some people complain about the taxi ride and I do not deny you those feelings (PC culture run amok!). I will only say that from my perspective, I thought the ride was just fine. No complaints. 5 stars and 20% tip.

Here, let me just break down how I saw the game:

  • Half-time sub – at first I thought Emery lost his mind, but then Etienne Capoue ran over and tried to knee-capitate Mkhitaryan and escaped with just a yellow card and I realized that Emery was right. If Torreira had been left on the pitch, Capoue would have probably targeted him instead and even if that’s me being conspiracy-minded the reality is that Torreira is needed in a few days in Naples and resting him makes sense.
  • Bringing on Guendouzi – I thought the youngster did great. He came on and won the ball back three times, made 27 passes and tried to get Arsenal a 2nd goal. His attacking vision was a little less than great but that will come with time.
  • Mkhitaryan – not a great game but he needs playing time and the way he got into positions that SHOULD have scored or put the ball into positions that SHOULD have scored was excellent. The finishing wasn’t excellent but we’ve already covered that.
  • Ramsey off – completely sensible move considering we will need his energy on Thursday.
  • Mustafi – whoscored.com gave him Man of the Match. He led all players with 5 clearances, had 4 interceptions, and made 2/3 tackles. He also won 100% of his 6 defensive aerial duels. Of course, he also lost possession twice and once fell over when Andre Grey was played clear through so.. Stats, man.
  • Did you know that Ozil played just 45 minutes and yet had 2 key passes and led all players with 0.8 xG Chain? Iwobi had 7 (SEVEN!!!) key passes and 5 dribbles. I mean, like, who does that? Just to put that 7 key passes in perspective, Iwobi has 33 key passes this season, so he had 21% of his entire season’s output in 1 game.

My final thoughts on this match are first, that Watford were surprisingly Stokeish. Troy Deeney has been on camera in civilian clothes, well after the match, calmly saying “whenever I go up against Arsenal I say ‘right, let me whack the first one, and see who wants it’.” Which is exactly what he did. He whacked Torreira and got himself a red card. Because intent was there, which he admits before the match, it was 100% a red card and if you disagree that means I get to whack you in the face with my elbow some time. I would go further and say that Capoue’s assault on Mkhitaryan was 100% intentional as well and should have gotten a red card but the ref disagreed.

Second, Arsenal are now in 4th place and just 1 point short of Tottenham. I have Arsenal getting 11 more points through the next 5 matches which is 77 points. Chelsea only have 4 matches left and I expect them to take 10 points United have 5 matches and I expect them to take 10 points in those matches. Tottenham have 5 matches and I expect them to take 12 points in those matches. If all of that comes true, that means Arsenal win the 4th place trophy. Fivethirtyeight puts Arsenal’s odds of winning 4th at 70% now. That’s up 14% from just before kickoff. I tend to agree with their model.

And finally (super duper finally, my last last word!) this was a huge win and completely unexpected. I’m going to just enjoy it for a while.

Qq

53 comments

  1. It was an old school, ugly, 1-nil to the Arsenal win that we obviously really needed. It’s freakish that the comically unjust/justice of the Troy Deeney Red and the hustle/idiocy involved with Auba’s/Foster’s goal actually made memories of a game that should be totally forgotten. That we obviously really needed.

  2. Mate, great article. No need to justify being happy when Arsenal win. Maybe if we lose but not if we win..

  3. Good summary Tim.
    My pre-season bet Arsenal fifth on 74 points looks more shaky by the day and I couldn’t be more happy about it.

    As Shard mentioned before I couldn’t have imagined a better way to beat Deeney FC than the way things unfolded.
    Had Arsenal outplayed them comprehensively their pain would’ve been much easier to take I imagine 🙂

    I get why people complain about the quality of football at times but from my perspective this was always a transition year and reaching top four and any trophy would be a bonus.

  4. “Watford were surprisingly Stokeish.”

    “Stokeish: was exactly what I was thinking yesterday, but there was nothing surprisingly about that.

  5. ‘whenever I go up against Arsenal I say ‘right, let me whack the first one, and see who wants it’.” Which is exactly what he did. He whacked Torreira and got himself a red card. Because intent was there, which he admits before the match’

    And this was the same during the ‘Arsenal don’t like it up ’em’ days.

    Constantly talk about how Arsenal are lightweight and will crumble if roughed up.
    Proceed to go out to rough up Arsenal.
    Talk about how there was no ill intent once players started getting their legs broken.

    There was.

  6. Karma….we needed one of those wins. If we should win a title and finish top 4 ; credit is due to pass and present management…less we forget , we were within a win last season to do same.

  7. I should be grateful for his output, but Aubameyang frustrates me no end. That dude misses chances for fun. And rarely selects the right option to play in others. He doesn’t hold it up, and like Theo Walcott, he was born offside.

    Ad yet…

    (1) His goalscoring output is terrific. Especially when you consider that Salah and Kane are much better all-round strikers, and they’re in the same range numbers wise

    (2) Which other player would have closed down the goalkeeper so fast?

    1. Even the Watford GK was laughing about how crazy quick Auba is after the game.

      Yeah Auba’s not a clinical finisher, but he gets us goals. It’s weird how Laca is a better all round striker, better finisher and yet over a season I think Auba will score more goals than Lacazette. I guess he just knows how where to be.

      1. I’ve watched Auba now for over 5 years. “Getting into position” is his only skill. But hey, scoring goals wins games. So.

    2. I’m ok if we sell Auba this summer. I think any of our young strikers would score the goals he gets.

      1. I get the logic of it, but that’s a HUGE call. We’re yet to see Nketiah or any of the others perform in the first team.

        I wouldn’t sell him. It would be just for reducing the wage bill, not for getting better.

      2. Problem with that is that you’d have to spend at least 90m to replace him, unless you make an outstanding scout hire. Nketiah has not taken the 3rd striker opportunity offered by Welbeck’s injury.

        Nah, Auba’s has significant value. He can seem pretty ineffective for 85 minutes of a game, but there’s no doubt that he’s an elite striker (that seems contradictory, I know).

        1. I suspect we would miss him terribly. “You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone” kind of player. Getting into the positions to score (or miss) is something very few players can do like Auba.

          It’s never a question of whether to sell. Only a question of what you get in return by selling. If we got a world-class winger who was a serious scoring threat, and a stellar young CB or LB, you might take that tradeoff.

      3. People said this about Adebayor. Even Wenger said strikers at Arsenal are well fed, or something along those lines, It’s simply not true.

  8. A big problem for Arsenal is sharing the goalscoring burden. Apart from Auba and Laca, who can you say, hard on heart, will give you a goal from a promising position? Ramsey, certainly. Ozil, to a lesser extent. Mhki on his day. Xhaka on his month. Torreira if he gets forward.

    Iwobi is a problem. Yes he can be astonishingly productive in key passes, but he’s the worst goalscoring wide player I’ve ever seen at Arsenal. This from a club that had Pires and Ljungberg. You cut off Iwobi’s passing lane to runners and give him shot all day.

    Ramsey is a hole theyll have to do something very special in the market to fill, or ESR will have to make a really big step up. Guendouzi’s a terrific deep midfielder, but his final third play is ordinary. I’d have bet the farm on his not finding Ozil on the breakaway.

    Dont want to sound neg. Just stating facts. We need more goals from all over the squad.

    So, on a related note. We have 3 very good headers of the ball in Kosc, Papa and Mustafi. So what do we do on corners? Intricate little routines where the ball ends up back at the centre circle.

    1. Fully agree on the corner routine. Maybe, they are trying to be unpredictable, given that its common knowledge that we do well of set pieces.

    2. Why kick a cross straight away when you can pass it back to your keeper? That seems to sum up our corner strategy this season.

  9. I wouldn’t say happy, maybe because I thought we’d win, but I’m satisfied with yesterday. We were horrible in many ways, lucky in others, and unlucky in some more, but we won.

    Despite the confusing nature of the change of system, I was ok with the subs too. I expect us to make the top 4 and I still retain hope we’ll finish above Spurs somehow. I also expect us to go through against Napoli, but that will mean playing a lot better than yesterday.

  10. It is still frustrating that with one goal/man down we are unable to beat them comprehensively
    We were clueless in the final third

    1. Arsenal created most of their chances in the second half and had most of their xG in the second half. I can’t agree that we were clueless. I would instead say that we were toothless or maybe profligate.

  11. Enjoying the win but not the performance; the “winning ugly” clichés have been part and parcel of this season. With just another month or so to go, I think I’ve finally adjusted.

    But if we really are transitioning from Beautiful Losers to Ugly Winners in the Emery era, I’d at least like a top four finish and/or a European trophy to show for it.

    “He wants to dream like a young man
    With the wisdom of an old man
    He wants his home and security
    He wants to live like a sailor at sea

    Beautiful loser
    Where you gonna fall?
    When you realize
    You just can’t have it all”
    – Bob Seger

  12. Hello all, thanks for the write up, decent win i guess…

    Iwobi right now is basically Gervinho mark 2. Am i wrong? They look identical once they get into the box. Fuckin iwobi is in the box , could cross , drive to touch. instead of wiggles his feet a few times and goes for a nutmeg lol.

    Auba does seem to miss a fair amount of chances but i think our offense has really been decent this year. In terms of goals, we are in top 4 with pool, spuds, city. The defense is where we need to shore up. If we can shave 10-15 goals off next season and keep our big O going, we should be solidly top 4.

    Part of me wonders about Auba / Laca. They are both scoring but does it affect them not playing day in and day out? Often those guys look lazer sharp out there but that last touch is sometimes wanting. Yesterday our killer instinct should have kicked in and buried those fucks in the first half. Instead we let em hang around…

    Hey first away clean sheet, better than last season. We are on the up in some sense. Keep it up Unai!

    1. Iwobi doesn’t remind me at all of Gervinho. Gervinho was like a deer on ice-skates with the ball. I don’t even think he knew what he was doing once he got the ball. Also his first touch was disgusting. I think Maitland-Niles is closer to Gervinho. I can’t see what other people see in him. I also laugh when people say “he’s being played out of position.” What position should he be played in? DM? No. Never. His touch is too poor for that. Wide forward? Don’t make me laugh, he stumbles over the ball constantly. Plus he only seems to have one idea in attack. I don’t hate him but the kid needs a huge amount of work before he should be cracking any starting lineup at Arsenal.

      1. Fair points. Appreciate the post and the chatter here!

        I’m very hopeful that Iwobi can become more than Gervinho. But for now they seem comparable, at least statistically. Left winger who gets maybe
        5 assists and 5 goals in an EPL season? The main thing I was referring to is the ‘end product’. Iwobi gets down the left hand side but he is so right footed. He doesnt know what to do when he is there in the box, much like Gervinho…

        Not sure where Maitland Niles belongs, he doesnt seem like a DM though , too lightweight and yes the touch is not there. He has been fairly effective gobbling up space as the wing back and looks more comfortable in the box.

    2. Don’t see Gervinho in Iwobi at all. Gervinho was in the Sanogo mould – no effing clue. Iwobi is just not confident in what he does.

      On AMN – he’s an athlete, but limited. I always thought he’d make a good DM, but he lacks aggression and sharpness. It might come in time, but if he can solve our backup RB problem then that’s good enough for me. The fact that we’re no longer complaining about RB being a problem area in the absence of Bellerin is a credit to him.

      1. Am I the only one who thinks that AMN has been playing superbly of late, both on offence and defence?

        So well, in fact, that I think we already have Hector’s backup/competition.

        1. I agree. A tad inconsistent perhaps, but all the angst about Bellerin’s injury has died down – that’s a huge credit to AMN.

  13. Good lord, from the above comments you’d think Iwobi and the young Conservative were 30 year-olds who had been nicking a living for years at Arsenal. You’d also be forgiven for thinking Nketiah had spurned all his many chances to lead the line for the Gunners (all I’ve seen him do is pretty much score when he gets his chance). We eat our friggin’ own around here, geesh…

    Iwobi is a bold, intelligent player. The Conservative is having his moments as well (good and bad to be sure, but that’s how you learn your craft). Smith-Rowe and Willock are right there as well. Indeed, we all seem to forget how young Guendouzi is. Let’s nurture more…overreact less.

    1. We are Arsenal fans with keyboards and opinions, not nurturers. The youngsters will be just fine with the opinions expressed here.

      If you have a counter-argument to any opinion expressed here, by all means, make one.

  14. It really doesn’t do to counter-argue with opinions. Each of the learned contributors above have their opinions. My opinion is simply that many of those opinions appear quite reactionary.

    From a metaphysical perspective, I believe each of our words to some degree affects (maybe even manifests) reality. Therefore, some degree of care might should be taken with our words.

    Anyway, it was a good win. This is a good community, and each of you are valued participants in it. [end of homily]

    1. Oh, so you’re a poststructuralist. (Linguistic determinism is so 1980, btw.)

      Tell you what. I’ve got an outdoor water tap. If you could kindly start talking about my tap as in fact a dispenser of gasoline, that would be great, because then my cars would have (mostly) free gas for life.

      Cheers!

      1. Free gas? Pffft.

        I just spent an hour fantasising about Scarlett Johansson in a Word document, and she’s on her way to my house as we speak.

        (with apologies to those who think that I’m lowering the tone. but in terms of speaking my words into action, Im simply being honest)

      2. Be careful of your thoughts, for your thoughts become your words. Be careful of your words, for your words become your actions. Be careful of your actions, for your actions become your habits. Be careful of your habits, for your habits become your character. Be careful of your character, for your character becomes your destiny.

        1. I’m with you, rhetorically. But not metaphysically. I’d love to believe that the key to justice or empowerment was a matter of posture instead of ability (actually, that’s a terrifying vision of justice, so I’ll stop for now), and I wish that words really could create reality, because then I’d be a billionaire (among other things).

          Unfortunately, the idea of discursive formation only perpetuates inequality, in part because it doesn’t provide material motivation for addressing it, and because it creates the illusion that merely talking about inequality actually addresses it. Think: comfortable leftists who talk grand about inequality…

          1. Words aren’t magic…of course I agree with that point. But if you don’t believe words are powerful (perhaps, the most powerful human creation) then you haven’t been paying attention to our sad world over the past few years. After all, there is a reason for the saying that the pen is mightier than the sword…

          2. Yes, though you need to add this important “can be” between “words” and “powerful.”‘ Words themselves are not powerful. Context is everything. And so I take it to be a sound argument that nothing we say on this site will affect player performance.

            The unqualified power people give to language is bizarre when you think about it.

  15. How about this Ajax team though. Not just the results but the way they play the game is interesting as Wenger might say.

    None of the we can’t compete on technical ability stuff from them. They live and die by their philosophy. Bergkamp and Overmars needed at Arsenal, though I am unsure it is currently the right culture for them at the club.

    1. ajax have been good and i’m not at all surprised to see them do well. they have tons of very talented young players but they also have leadership on the pitch. we saw against fc bayern that they’re not afraid. can they go on to do what then ’95 ajax team did? that team beat the mighty ac milan, who were about what barcelona is today so why not?

      so many time, i’ve compared arsenal sides to that ’95 ajax side only to come up short in the same area. that ajax side had frank rijkaard where arsenal were always missing that senior guy to lead and provide direction. it’s why the youth project failed. this current ajax side has that leadership on the pitch and so the sky’s the limit. it’s no coincidence that the ajax director of football was a youngster in that ’95 ajax side (and he’s a former arsenal man). many congrats to marc overmars, dennis bergkamp, and that ajax side.

      1. Yup. We missed the experience of some of our legends in the Project Youth era. Gilberto should have been captain and retained. I think finances were a major issue, but I’m sure if it were all to do again, Wenger would change that at least and find the money for it.

    2. Ajax are my team for this year’s Champions League. Unfortunately, that confirms their ultimate defeat…

  16. tim, i can’t believe that you said many arsenal youngsters could score the goals that aubameyang has scored. that’s insane. this guy has done this for years, both in dortmund and north london. the goal he scored the other day was not because arsenal played such good football in the buildup. arsenal were awful on monday and if it weren’t for that goal, arsenal would have dropped points to ten man watford. to score as many goals as auba has is not easy.

    didn’t you do a write up in the summer about arsenal, potentially, having two 20+ goal scorers in a single season? man city and liverpool might do it but arsenal has never had that. right now, it looks like they’ll only have one again this year and it’s aubameyang.

    i think it’s important we not forget that scoring goals is universally recognized as the hardest thing to do in soccer. it’s why great goal scorers are so expensive. if scoring goals were that simple, everybody would do it.

  17. claudeivan, while i understand your frustration with iwobi, its important to have perspective. iwobi is still only 22 years old but he’s clearly talented. too many talented youngsters have been jettisoned too early, only to go on and achieve greatness elsewhere. do you remember mo salah when he was 22? mourinho got rid of him. same with a 22 year old kevin debrunye. who saw raheem sterling having the season he’s having right now when he was 22? who saw a 22 year-old thierry henry being sold by juventus to go on and do what he has?

    i’m not accusing you of saying arsenal should sell iwobi but you’ve got to recognize that he’s come on huge over the past year. trust me, no defender wants to deal with a player like alex iwobi. this is a guy we want on our team. let’s continue to watch him grow in arsenal red, mistakes and all.

    1. imagine if iwobi had a 23-year old serge gnabry on the other wing…….just sayin’

    2. “Only 22” is not a good defence of a professional sportsman. That’s prodigy age in most things, not sport. You of all people should know that, Josh.

      And it predictably cue up a problematic comparison to more naturally gifted players of a similar age, but far different circumstances.

      The point isn’t so much about Iwobi, as our needing goalscoring threat from the wings. Iwobi can do as many Ronaldinho stepovers as he likes… if you cut off his passing lane to Ramsey or Auba and show him the shot, he’s more often than not, not going to be able to hurt you. That’s an issue. A big one. It hurts our conversion rate of key passes into goals. Same with Kolasinac. Good penetration, poor end product. At least one Top 4 place could get decided on GD. And we’ll look back on games where we had good penetration, but our wingers couldn’t finish.

      Iwobi is a good player with good attacking skills, and that’s why he gets so many starts for Arsenal, that for sure. We don’t have his ferrying skillset elsewhere. He was terrific around October/November, and I sang his praises then (and the word vibes clearly weren’t long lasting 🙂 ) He needs to improve his finishing, in addition to his tackling (poor) and his defensive support of his LB and LWB.

      However I have less confidence than you that if at the age of 22 you don’t have such instinctual skills as finishing, you get them from somewhere. The twig is bent early in football.

      1. I really like Iwobi. I also get frustrated by him. I think we need to have a greater goal threat from out wide. That doesn’t mean giving up on the likes of Iwobi (or Nelson). It just means that if he’s to make the most of his talent, he has some way to go, and meanwhile Arsenal could do with someone better right now.

        1. And in that regard I think that the rapid improvement of AMN is going unnoticed by many gooners. With Hector out, he’s first choice RB and RWB. Apart from the energy and speed he brings, his offensive decision making and combination play around the box has improved leaps and bounds. His shot selection is decent too. If he gets a long run there, he’s going to chip in with the odd goal, and more than a few assists. His block on a Watford shot late on stopped us dropping 2 points.

          Arsene said something about him a few years back which is true… he’s a clean tackler, times it well, and is good at pinching the ball off the opposing player. He does one thing really well… watch the man and not the ball.

          So these things are a mixed bag. The loss of Hector could have been catastrophic. AMN has done much to help us to offset that. He’s raw still, and not the complete deal. But I think that we may have found his most natural position. I think that between him and Hector, we dont have to go into the market for RB.

          1. I agree about AMN. I’m not sure why Tim seems to think he’s not up to our level.

            Not QUITE sure his form means we don’t need to buy a RB. It depends on where the coach sees him and how he sees himself. He’s always said he wants to be a CM. Maybe that will/has changed. But he’s certainly held the fort in Bellerin’s absence.

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