A draw is enough

Today Watford, Thursday Napoli, Sunday Crystal Palace – three matches that could define Arsenal’s season.

I have Arsenal down for a draw today. I know that Andrew (from Arseblog) feels that we need a win, and I would not turn my nose down at that, but I think 4th is still within our grasp with a simple draw. I had us getting 5 points from the remaining away fixtures – two draws and a win on the final day away to Burnley. So, Arsenal could even lose today and still get the five points I think we need to finish with 74 points and 4th place.

And let’s face it, with Arsenal’s away form blues a draw away to Watford, who are a rough opponent, is a pretty good result this year (we lost this fixture last year). However, if Arsenal lose, I don’t think it’s the end of the world. A draw is a good result. A win would be gravy.

A win today would take Arsenal above Chelsea today and I agree with others that the added pressure on them would be great. And there was a time, back when I first started supporting Arsenal*, that beating a small club like Watford home or away would be a given. But it’s not a given any more. And more importantly, Arsenal really need a win/draw on Thursday and a win on Sunday.

With three games in a week, I expect heavy rotation. Emery needs fresh legs for Thursday – I think he has to rest Ramsey and I bet we see limited minutes for Torreira. Will he go back to the midfield pairing of Guendouzi and Elneny? Or will Xhaka get a start?

Guendouzi is a willing runner but Watford will try to bully him off the ball. I mean, you could have written that sentence in your sleep: Guendouzi runs more than any other Arsenal player but he’s also the most fouled. Teams target him. You know all of this.

But it’s not like teams are going to stop going after him, nor is it realistic to call for protection from the refs. He’s just going to have to figure out how to protect the ball better and if I can suggest something a little old fashioned and perhaps even a little blue to some of you: he needs to kick back.

This is always a tricky suggestion. People think I’m advocating violence or hurting people. I’m not. It’s just that when you’re physically challenged in sport, you give back what you’re getting. Obviously not to the level of getting red cards but sometimes you “leave a little bit extra” on the opposing player so that he doesn’t think you’re soft as lanolin. Fabregas did it. So much so that he actually had a reputation as a “snide” player. Something of a cheat.

Regardless of how you put this, Guendouzi is going to have to learn to be more physical. That’s going to take time. And probably some work in the gym. It will be funny when Emery doesn’t even play him, rendering this entire section moot.

The other thing that helps against a brutalist team like Watford is quick passing. I didn’t factor in Watford’s draining 120 minute match against Wolves because that was last Sunday. They are well rested after that and will be looking to get out there and mix it up with Arsenal. That means Arsenal need to get their passing boots on – quick one-twos and tight triangles should be on the menu but I don’t think we are quite there yet.

So, whomever Emery starts will have to go ball-to-ball with them. Deeney will be looking to push the center backs around. That makes me wish we had Rob Holding fit for today. In the 2-0 win over Watford, Holding was man of the match.

I suppose Koscielny can and probably will fight for every header but Deeney will try to park himself on Mustafi if possible. That’s what he did last time and he won 6/9 aerials against Mustafi. The German is normally quite good at aerial duels (statistically) but Deeney is more than a handful.

I’m not at all negative about Arsenal’s prospects, these are just some of the toughest games of the year coming up. If we win all three of these games this week I think we are almost guaranteed Champions League next season. But I wouldn’t bet on three wins. Hope for, yes! Bet on?

Qq

*I FINALLY GET TO USE THIS!

28 comments

  1. Away win, 3 points, back into 4th. Fight me.

    We will throw all our attacking prowess at them, because we can win this game by outscoring them. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, so I’m playing red hot Ramsey. if the game’s safe after an hour, he comes off.

    They’re not great when we bomb them from the flanks, so this is a 3412 with Mhki in the hole, Aaron and Torreira CM, Kola and AMN wing backs.

    Ozil and iwobi I’d have coming off the bench.

    Of course, Emery will do something totally different.

    1. “No need to fight!
      I hope you’re right.
      Blow Deeney up
      with this stick of Dynamite.”
      -Choose Goose

      1. lol. Im just a gooner with a working Macbook Pro, an internet connection and some time on his hands.

  2. I don’t watch nearly enough of the PL to know what we should or will do. But I have a feeling we’ll win today, and that it will be a good, controlled performance, rather than a helter skelter eked out win.

  3. If we start with Guendouzi and Eleney we will lose, against Everton they were dire, Guendouzi has to go on loan next season to improved, if we can start without the accident Mustafi, we have a chance. We need to win because to halt the dismal away record we have, and also to give us breathing space for fourth spot as I believe we will get three points against Palace. Th is isn’t a game for Ozil either. The rot has to stop

  4. Why is there this train of thought that to beat technically inferior sides, we must abandon our technical superiority and try to win using their strength, which is aggressive and physical play?

    Shouldn’t we be doubling down on our strengths, and having them upping their technical ability to cope with us?

    I don’t see many teams outside of England use that mentality, is it an English thing to ignore technical superiority?

  5. I look at the odds of the bookmakers here. Watford to win 3.20 Arsenal 1.92.
    With Arsenal’s away blues, they are far short with their odds. I expect a 2.50 for
    both teams.
    Seems the bookmakers are confident that the Arsenal will be able to NOT LOSE/ WIN this match.
    Let us see if the bookmakers are correct.

  6. Gosh, we stank.

    Xhaka was study in awfulness. Mhki’s shooting was comical. Iwobi, for a big lad, just cant tackle. AMN shored things up when he came on…he’s been mighty impressive of late.

    Deeney’s sending off? Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

    1. Agreed on all counts. Mkhi should really know better than to turn the ball over when we are trying to kill off a game. 2 or 3 times he made really ill-advised passes that turned into opportunities for Watford. What was he thinking? Maybe if we are down, but not a goal up and a man up. I expected a lot more from him.

      I didn’t think Xhaka was so awful. A little rusty, but maybe I missed some defensive lapses?

      1. He made some good headed clearances from balls into the box, but in his main job, protecting the midfield, he was hopeless. Let Watford players run right by him all afternoon. Thought I was watching Denilson. Xhaka can play a blinder one game, and look like a chump the next. Today was chump day, but it could be post-injury rustiness. Has strengths, but glaring weaknesses. He’s the Mustafi of the midfield.

      2. I’d say his poor midfield play, our lack of control there and the overall poor play was one of the things that made it feel like 11 v 11, even when Deeney was sent off.

  7. Did I say controlled? I meant chaotic. That was a stinker of a performance.

    But the manner of the goal and the Deeney sending off (100% deserved) were hilarious.

    1. Yep.
      I mean, how thick is Deeney, really?
      He announces to the whole world he likes to smack an Arsenal player to start a game off to see who’s up for it, and then pleads innocence when he gets caught for an intentional elbow.

      In his defense though , an elbow to a face like his is just as likely to improve looks as cause any damage.

  8. you really have to trust the bookmakers.
    Arsenal won 1-0 despite having played one man more for nearly 80 minutes.
    Not a good sight. But 3 points are 3 points. We are back in 4th.

  9. Note to Emery. 4 ATB is a disaster unless you have Kos and Papa. That was keystone cops stuff back there today. That said, had we stayed with 3 maybe AMN isn’t in position to block that open goal shot.

    Speaking of AMN – he was huge today. Gaining confidence with every game. His positioning is stronger now – he’s making interceptions and getting into space consistency. I hope we go back to 3 ATB on Thursday and get him providing width up the right side.

    According to Tim, 8 points more gets us CL. 6 at home. But the other 2 aren’t coming at Wolves, or Leicester. We are still not playing well enough away. Burnley will be a must win on the final day of the season. You heard it here first.

  10. The ref lopped their cojones off for this one.

    And who are these commentators?
    I concede one of them pointed out that Deeney was no where near the ball and there was no need for him to elbow Torriera. But seriously? Why would you ever need to elbow your opponent in the face?

    “I guess this is a red card foul in modern football”. Well bud, those guys can run circles around you with their passing, I dont hear you complaining about your oafball.

    I hate these commentators implicitly condoning violent conduct. That was a well deserved red card.

    1. I especially liked how one of the commentators called the red card “harsh” but then applauded the pale faced Watford midfielder for winning a free kick from which they almost scored, even though replays showed he just lost his balance.

  11. Bergkamp also had a rep for leaving a little extra in there, for his own protection. Vieira, carded for everything he did to protect himself.

  12. what an awful performance. when deeney went off, i was certain xhaka would boss the game. nope, he was poor but he hasn’t played in a few weeks. arsenal didn’t need him to be technically great, but tactically. at least he got minutes today and i’m sure he’ll be better. as for him winning those headers, he had to. every set play, he, inexplicably, dropped deeper than everyone else, keeping watford players onsides. credit to him, he did win every one of those balls but i don’t know what made him keep dropping so deep.

    bernd leno is continuing to impress and got arsenal at least two points yesterday. that save at the near post was fantastic. that free kick save from capoue was just as impressive. he was the arsenal man of the match for me.

    last year, we were talking about players we wanted at the club. i mentioned doucoure from watford. yesterday, he reminded me why i liked him so much. his performance and leadership is the reason why watford were so good after going down a man. that young man was imperious; an absolute catalyst for everything watford did well yesterday. doucoure was the man of the match.

    1. arsenal need to go and get doucoure this summer! he probably won’t be cheap but that’s arsenal’s problem.

  13. I read somewhere that this was our first away clean sheet of the season.
    Against a 10th place team with 10 men for the much of the match. Could this game be in the top 10 of the most watchable 3 points for Arsenal since like, forever? I think a lot of contenders for that top 10 list might be from this season. Agree 100% with Joshuad: As he continues to mature and develop his Premier League chops, many teams are going to burnt by Leno. He’s not bats%$t crazy like the last German we had back there. but he may become just as good. Man of the match? No, I’ll give that to Troy Deeney who continues to prove himself a massive wanker season in and season out!

    1. Of course I said the opposite of what I intended: UNwatchable, not watchable.

  14. if arsenal play like that on thursday, they could go out on a 5-2 aggregate. napoli is way too good to not throw a beating to a team that plays the way arsenal played on yesterday. that 2-goal game at the emirates might not be enough.

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