Don’t sleep on Napoli

One thing I have to admit is that I haven’t watched much Serie A this season. I have a subscription to ESPN Plus/Watch (which I need in order to watch certain cup matches and yet their system is so clunky, doesn’t let me record matches, and the Serie A play at such weird times/days that I barely get a chance to watch matches.

I can also report without hesitation that the product sucks. Not ESPN (per se) but the Serie A. It’s some of the worst football I’ve seen. When Americans guffaw and say “soccer sucks” because it’s slow and full of players rolling around on the ground, what they are thinking of is Serie A 2016-present.

The Premier League have plenty of diving, cheating, players and clubs who try to control the clock through “shithousery.” Englishmen like Harry Kane and his compatriots at Tottenham are home to some of the dirtiest players on the continent.

But there’s a totally different pace to Serie A. Where the Premier League can be frantic – up and down the pitch almost like basketball – and there can be a lot of heavy physical play – not just hard tackles, pulling and shoving in the box, etc – Serie A is more “tactical” in a sense. It’s not that there’s no contact, no sprints, and no physicality, it’s just a lot less. As an Arsenal supporter all you need to think of is Lichtsteiner. He epitomizes Serie A football in almost every way.

Napoli are still very much a Mauricio Sari team: they lead Serie A in pass % (nearly 90% average), they lead Serie A in possession, and they lead the league in shots per game (18.7). They also allow joint third fewest shots per game (11.1).

Their leading scorer is Arkadiusz Milik with 16 goals and Dries Mertens is joint top playmaker in the division with 9 assists. Insigne takes most of their shots (he’s already got 110 this season) and he loves a shot from outside the 18 (over half) but he’s only scored 9 goals this season, 1 from outside.

Milik is their main goal threat and if you want to know something about his playing style, let’s just say that Atletico Madrid are after him. He’s big, physical, and also slightly ugly to watch. You’d think he would be better at headers but he’s not. He leads the league in direct free kick goals with 3, the same number of headed goals he’s scored. That does make him a set play threat but not exactly in the way you would think.

Like I said, Serie A football is weird. And Napoli are just as weird as you might think they would be playing in a league full of weirdos.

Napoli have 0 key passes off free kicks and 29 off corners (mid-table) in Serie A play and 0 assists off corners and free kicks in European play. They love playing short corners, quick free kicks, and recycling possession to create chances from open play.

They are a possession team and even in away games against Juventus (where they were down a man) and Liverpool this season, they wanted the ball. They will look to impose that playing style on Arsenal, I figure, and won’t want to sit back and soak up pressure.

In a funny way I actually think this could benefit Arsenal. Even though folks don’t like to admit it, Arsenal are kind of set up to be a counter-attacking team. Aubameyang feasts on open spaces and I’d love to see him get the start tomorrow. His speed will tear through the Italian side’s defense. And Ozil is an underrated counter-attacking midfielder. Also, if Emery gets to start Xhaka, he’s got that long-ball/big switch threat in his bag.

I can’t figure out which approach Arsenal will take. I know what I would like to see is 90 minutes where Arsenal fight for every loose ball and 50-50 challenge. Not necessarily a countering approach, that’s one weapon, but more of a fight for possession with them. It will be interesting to see what Unai picks from the start and what we switch to at half time when that’s not working.

This is going to be one of the toughest matches of our season. They are a good team with lots of tricky talent who will punish defensive mistakes in and around the box. If they dominate the ball, that’s playing into their hands and I don’t think we can survive two legs of playing like Jose Mourinho.

I also don’t think a single-goal win for Arsenal is going to be enough. The away tie here is going to be even more difficult and our away form is awful.

One final thought on that problem with away form. I think it’s not only down to how Arsenal feel. It’s not just that Arsenal lose their minds on away days, tighten up, or something mental. Rather, I think teams feel like they can get something off us and tactically they take a more aggressive approach. They play two up top – and even three up top in many cases – against us now, where in days past they would usually deploy one guy. Remember the days when Sam Allardyce deployed a lone striker to win knockdowns against a Wenger team that held the ball and passed sideways for 90 minutes.

There’s a real danger that teams will decide that what they can do at their own ground against Arsenal they can try at our home ground.

Qq

38 comments

  1. I’m on my ESPN + trial for this. Just got back from dental surgery, so I’m fully numb for the match.

    Never completed the post on how right you were about Everton match, so I’ll say it here. I’m not even sure how good Leno was. If Everton could even finish a thought with any creativity, it would have been 2/3-0 easily.

    In any case, it’s strange watching Arsenal being the side trying to absorb punishment in the hopes of getting something on the break. I still like this better than the last few seasons of Wenger, but hopefully we’re building to something, not plateauing.

  2. I like the Serie A. It’s a silly league right now and I guess it’s kind of like how some fans of the PL also watch a non-league club.

    Somehow, Napoli bore me. Even more than Juventus. They’ve got some good talent though. Mertens scores some crazy goals. Milik I’ve liked since his Ajax days. Insigne is a threat. And of course there’s Koulibaly. It’s just hard to judge how good they are in the context of what Italian football is right now. And yet, I’m wary of them.

    I really hope we are aggressive and positive in this tie. I fear we’ll come out too conservative and as you say, that’ll play into their hands.

    I’d go with both Laca and Auba with Ozil behind them. And a Torreira-Ramsey midfield. Overload the middle and allow free rein to Ozil. On defense, watch the runs in the channels and stop the crosses coming in.

    Oh and I hope we’re practicing defending set plays.

    PS. Just caught the dig at Emery’s half time switches. Made me chuckle.

  3. I don’t watch much Serie A either, but it does seem to lack intensity in many matches. Appreciate your insight. I am a Mertens fan and think he could really cause problems for our midfield. We need Torreira to come up big, and I suspect he will have an end-of-season resurgence.

    I think Josh made a really going point in the last thread. Emery took a calculated risk by playing the lineup he did Monday. He would rather have lost at Everton than played Napoli without Ramsey. He saved Kos and Xhaka as well, and is putting all the big guns into the mix for EL. I think he wants to win that more than the league. In truth, you can’t blame him. If we beat Napoli, we will have a lesser opponent for the semi and then likely a Chelsea team he believes we can beat. PL has a lot of tough away matches, and we can’t dictate what Sp*rs, Chelsea or Manure do. This match will really tell a tale for our season. Agree we need more than 1-0.

    PS – I am really worried about Watford away without Sokratis. Deeny is the kind of player Papa just completely nullifies, and now we are relying on Kos and Musti to do that job. That is the CB pairing that birthed the “Cajones Controversy” if I’m not mistaken.

  4. I don’t anything about Serie A. All I’ve watched this season has been limited to Juventus (Ronaldo) highlights. I know they used to have Higuain, I know he of the arched eybrow is their manager and has always been a class guy. I know pizza was invented there and the Neopolitan version of pasta e fagioli soup, pasta fazool has tons of hot pepper and is totally awesome.

    I know that Emery must play our strike partnership to win this game. I want to lots of handshakes and mutual bowing by those two through the match. I know that we will be without Xhaka and Koscielny and that sucks. So that leaves Monreal slotting over to center and AMN and Kolasinac as our wingbacks who really, really need rebound after Everton.
    I see a midfield with Ramsey, Torriera and I guess it has to be Guendozi. And who plays in behind Laca and Auba? Mhiki? Can we see Ozil starting?

    So I don’t know much but like the late great Sam Cooke I know what a wonderful world it will be (if we win by three…)

  5. Can I make a slightly off topic request Tim, I wonder if you wrote or if you can point me in the direction of blogs profiling Wenger’s project youth, especially a profile of the midfield types we had such as Fabregas and co.

    I feel Wenger’s blue print in the post invincible years is worth studying.

    I also feel Wenger was guilty of the statement made by Luis Campo, that top English club’s focused on attack more than defense. I know it’s a big ask to review the information from that period, but the best of Arsene Wenger was revealed in those games with project youth, before the League cup final loss.

    If such a detailed analysis doesn’t exist, please could you create it, when the season ends?

    The wonders of hindsight would make such a treatise very interesting.

    1. I have gone through: I will miss you Arsene, Project youth 2, Will Arsenal sign anyone, from 2009 when Arsenal seemed to be in contention with Aston Villa for top 4, 10 years later, and we’re still stuck with battling for top 4.

    2. my man, please allow me to interject. the mold simply isn’t that complicated and i believe it goes like this.

      wenger watched the youth international tournaments and signed the captains from the champions/finalists/french teams. wenger’s first arsenal singing in ’96, was the captain for the french olympic team; a tall, skinny kid named patrick vieira, who was signed right after the olympic games. i know the olympics isn’t exactly a youth tournament, france didn’t win the olympics, and vieira was an invincible, but the wenger youth mold was set even then.

      many of the youth project players were recruited by wenger after a u-17 international success. this list of players includes cesc fabregas, philippe senderos, jeremie aliadiere, fran merida, carlos vela, gael clichy, denilson, and abou diaby. i’m almost certain that all of those players were either captain or top scorer for their u-17 teams less than 6 months before wenger signed them. these names are off the top of my head, as i’m sure i’ve omitted a few but i remember what these men had in common. likewise, i have always found this group profound as this is a very specific demographic.

      arsenal also had young players that didn’t fit the u-17 finalist/captain/top scorer mold but were brought in for cheap like van persie, vermaelen, flamini, djourou, song, eboue, oxlade-chamberlain, bendtner, sczcesny, joel campbell, etc. likewise, these names are off the top of my head as i’m sure there are many more but they were all talented. this list doesn’t even include the vaunted arsenal youth academy that has always been teeming with even more english talent and potential to break into the first team.

      the whole idea behind the youth project seemed to be that if arsenal could bring in gifted players at this particular age, that they would create a familial-type bond that he could cultivate with the hope that they all grow and stay together like a family. this is an extremely sophisticated, avant-garde, approach that took some thought and it should have worked. the reality is those talented youngsters needed leadership on the field and mentorship in the dressing room.

      the decision to allow henry to leave was very good. likewise, the decision to make gallas captain was controversial but i believe a good decision. gallas was an experienced campaigner who knew what it took to win championships. the problems began when wenger failed to support his captain. you can’t allow the gallas/kolo relationship to deteriorate the way it did. you can’t tolerate subordinate players disrespecting the captain. you can’t have players running to the boss simply because they don’t like what the captain did unless it’s something legit, i.e. he slept with my wife. other than that, “get out of my face, kid, and do what you’re told”, should have been wenger’s reply. that leadership issue is probably the single most significant reason the so-called youth project failed.

      1. one more point, i’d like to make is that i’m a math/science guy to the bone but after well over two decades of military service, i’m also a firm believer in the art of leadership. i know from experience that there’s simply no algorithmic solution to help compensate for solid leadership or a lack of leadership.

        mike tyson once said that everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. that’s real talk! because they understand how important it is to still win the fight despite getting your bell rung, leaders set the tone in training and provide direction on the field in tough games. inexperienced guys simply can’t do that, regardless of how talented they are.

        when you’re doing a combat mission and real bullets start flying towards you, one of those bullets empties your buddy’s brains through a brand new hole in the back of his skull, and you still have to accomplish the toughest mission of your life (while contemplating your own mortality), there’d better be some strong leadership on the field to help you or you’re gonna die there right beside your buddy. too many times, arsenal died on the field due to a lack of leadership. i know combat is an extreme analogy but sound leadership can’t be overstated.

        1. Thanks Joshuad. I heard about that pattern earlier but I didn’t remember or consider it. My idea is someone else can pick this strategy and make it work, because it was very close to success.

          On the issue of leadership, I tend to agree with people who hold the view that even the Invincibles underachieved in their time.

  6. I watch serie A more than the premier league because of the difference in technical ability, which is usually higher in Spain and Italy, but also because I like the tactical side of things as a youth coach. I have used Napoli as a reference point for the football I teach my boys and it has been interesting how they have transitioned from Sarri, to Ancelotti.

    They might seem like a Sarri team in that they still lead the league in those stats, but the drop in those stats from prime Sarriball is really significant. They aren’t as intense in their pressing as before, they play more long passes and they have changed from a strict 433 to a flexible 442, and other variations. They have also rotated a bit more with regards to players because Sarri rarely rotated and Napoli suffered at the end of seasons because of this.

    They are however very proud of their ability to dominate possession and will try to dominate whomever, wherever. They are probably the opposite of an Unai Emery team in style and mindset. They do not practice caution at home, but do alter a little for away games. Their passing game is not as good as it is because of the quality of player, but the development of a philosophy, which players like Fabian Ruiz could take to with no problems. Again, an opposite view of management to Emery.

    With players, they do not have better squad quality than us, but they are a better team than us. Goalkeeping, they use sweeper keepers and rely on playing out from the back. The centrebacks are pressing bait and are allowed, even instructed, to play risky passes out from the back. They are also very mobile, which is important for a pressing side when the team looks to also play in the opposition half. Koulibaly is also very fast, for a defender. Even Mbappe couldn’t get anything out of him as he matched him stride for stride, so Aubameyang won’t have it his way. The midfield is combative, technical, even the combative Allan is very comfortable in possession because they are so set tactically. Upfront, they use a lot of movement. They do not move in free form, but play in certain areas a lot. Insigne plays, left and centre, Callejon plays, right and centre, Milik plays centrally only. Milik, as much as he is tall and holds up the ball is technically better than you are giving him credit for, and his link to Madrid is because Atletico are looking to alter their style of play and bring in a more expansive style. They have already started an overhaul of their squad, maybe we could pick up a few players from them this coming summer.

    That’s my observation of Napoli.

    1. Basically your observation has knocked me back into reality that we might not be winning this tie because they’re better than us

      1. Sorry to dampen your spirits, so let me try to provide some positives for you before the game starts.

        We have very good individual quality, even if we are not fully integrating that quality into our tactics. Ozil might have a lot to do as Tim said, he is a very good counter player because of his best quality, his decision making. He will be very important for us if we are to get a goal, if we can offer more in midfield because Allan will look to shut him down.

        I actually think Eddie could play a role as a left winger because he is our only pace option and can get something from running in behind their left-back the same way that Richarlison did to us.

        thats all I can think of right now. But we have the best pair o strikers off any team in the world, the best playmaker out there. lets hope the rest of the team can set a foundation for them.

  7. Realistically, we won’t be able to keep them from scoring if we play even half-open. That will color Emery’s tactics, because we might win the game today playing open, but will we score that many goals against a team with good possession stats and one of the best CB’s in the world (Koulibaly)? Even if we beat them but they get an away goal we’re in a bad place.

    We won’t have that many chances and our strikers are on the inefficient side. I don’t think he plays Ozil for that reason, he’ll prefer Myhkitaryan for the defensive work rate, probably go 4-4-2 with Ramsey/Torreira in the middle, Kola and Myki wide, Monreal and AMN at LB/RB (maybe even Mustafi again at RB). Emery will want to win a tight 1-0 and hope that when we go to Napoli we get an away goal to put the pressure on them. Just my prediction. I hope we win the two legs, but I’m not betting on it.

  8. Why am I not seeing the match listed on ESPN+? I can’t find it by searching either.

    1. usa.arsenal.com is a great resource for which of the myriad streaming services are carrying our matches.

      That reminds me, I think I can cancel ESPN + for the rest of the season.

      1. Thank you. Right now, I’m watching on Univision Deportes. B/R live doesn’t appear to have an app for the X1 and I won’t watch tiny, iPad football.

          1. I sprung for the small B/R live. I’m going to try to synch that with Deportes picture. I will fail.

            Cancelled my ESPN+. Maybe next year.

  9. Kolasinac’s entire schtick is running full pelt with the ball, taking an unnecessary extra touch with men wide open, and hitting a hopeful ball across the fact of goal. A more composed full back would have had 2 assists.

    We didnt play well second half but Ramsey and Auba should have killed the tie at 3- 0. Cant be too hard on Ramsey, though. He was terrific. Missed the first half, but from what I could see, we played really well.

    Where I was I got commentary from Jonathan Pearce. He was annoying. Youd think, at 2-0 and for the last 20 minutes, Arsenal was losing the game. He was right about Kolasinac, though… he has pace and power, Pearce said, but no subtlety.

    1. He also does an overlap/underlap pass. I honestly think that he’s one of the worst players we’ve bought in the last five years. The Lich has to be the worst but after that it’s a close call between Kolasinac and Mustafi.

  10. Ok, so I watched the first half. The give and go between Ozil and Ramsey , and movement between those 2, AMN and Laca was sublime.

    So every time Ramsey has a MOTM performance, some gooners ask Raul wtf was he thinking. I never get tired of seeing that.

    1. “So every time Ramsey has a MOTM performance, some gooners ask Raul wtf was he thinking. I never get tired of seeing that.”

      The only thing more amusing than that is the idea that lowering the wage bill was something coming from Emery or Raul, and not Kroenke himself.

      I suppose the internal email to reuse plastic coffee cups and wipe back sides with fingers instead of toilet paper in order to cut down on spending was also something Raul and Emery concocted just for $hits and giggles.

  11. Just to be clear, I’m not defending their decision.
    Clearly Ramsey will be difficult if not impossible to replace , but until they offer another Arsenal player a substantial pay raise, the evidence is pointing towards ownership looking at an Europa League level club that’s on CL level wages and they are not liking it much.
    Send all your strongly worded letters of complaint to Big Stan .

    1. I don’t disagree about it being a decision from the top. But it’s interesting. Was that why Gazidis left? There was no sign of this austerity while he was here. Or did this come about after he left and Raul campaigned for the job by offering to cut expenditure. Remember we were supposedly looking for a Gazidis replacement.

      In any case, Kroenke would not be involved in the individual decisions. We’re capable of shedding something like half a million in weekly wages in the summer even without getting rid of Ramsey. No matter how you look at it, it’s a poor decision.

      1. This issue of Ramsey leaving or whether not it was a good or bad decision. We’re all saying it’s a bad decision now because Ramsey is playing very well. I remember quite well people being indifferent to the idea of selling Ramsey. I definitely was and I still am to be honest. I’m very happy that he’s playing great for us because he’s helping us win games. But let’s be honest, this is one of his best spells in years for us and he hasn’t been consistent enough for the board to deem him worthy of a mega contract. At the rate he’s playing, it’ll be difficult to replace what he does for us.
        To be honest, I think Ramsey was badly managed by the previous regime and we’re getting the best out of him because Emery is managing him well and not overplaying him or risking him in games. I’m a big fan of Ramsey and he did frustrate me a lot over the last couple of years, hence why I was indifferent if he stayed or left. Although now, I’m more inclined to him staying but obviously that is now impossible, but let’s not blame the club for not paying him massive box for someone who hasn’t been consistently good for us over the last couple of years

        1. That’s either revisionist history or a limited perspective.

          I remember the Aaron who was just about slotting in when he was assaulted by the orcs. I remember “recovery” Ramsey. I remember “Hollywood” Ramsey. I remember the Ramsey who bombed forward at the expense of defensive duties, allegedly, on his own accord.

          Ramsey has always been a loyal servant, and, dare I say it, a leader for the club. I have never wanted him sold, purple patch / dry spell whatever. I think a decent argument can be made that much of his inconsistency or lack of production is down to the way Wenger, may the good lord bless and keep him, used Ramsey, and he is now being allowed to play in a more conducive role under Emery.

          It was a bad idea to sell Ramsey. Full stop.

      2. Gazidis left because he was offered more money and equity stake at Milan.
        Also , his leaving was no great loss seeing as he was mostly Wenger’s puppet and a mouthpiece.

  12. i was pretty indifferent to ramsey being sold or extended. while i’ve often questioned his decision making, he’s always worked hard to maximizes his talent for the club. how can anyone begrudge effort? what i am is vehemently opposed to him leaving on a free. he’s an arsenal resource that the club has cultivated. with ramsey going to juventus for free, it’s like arsenal have given away their rights to an intellectual property they developed. who would ever do that?

    the club made a mistake. i’ve never bought the stories about arsenal trying to save money. they’re a huge club with plenty of money and wouldn’t have missed the money to pay ramsey. my belief is the old regime agreed terms with ramsey. however, the club waited until the new manager could get a good look at him and it was, ultimately, emery’s decision as to whether he wanted ramsey for that money or not. after a few months, emery said ramsey’s not worth the dough that’s why arsenal withdrew the contract. none of the other rumors make any sense. unfortunately, emery needed a few more months to determine how best to use ramsey.

    1. I suppose Emery saying Arsenal have no funds to strengthen in January and can only do loan deals was just a lie then.
      Ok, why not.
      I always assume people to be trustworthy until proved otherwise.
      So far I haven’t seen anything from Emery that would indicate that he is anything but a straight shooter.

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