Liverpool offsided their way to a win over Southampton which makes them the first team to get a guaranteed top 4 finish this season. With Man City on the verge of doing the same that leaves Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottnumb, and Man U fighting for the remaining 2 spots in Europe’s “most prestigious competition” (and extra £5-10m payout).
According to fivethirtyeight Arsenal and Tottenumb have the best chance of winning those spots. That is, of course, down to the opponents that each team has to play and the relative strength of each team.
Based on my predictions, I have Arsenal finishing 4th, on 74 points, on the last day of the season, with a win over Burnley away. I see Arsenal only getting 5 points from the remaining away games and starting that off with a loss tomorrow to Everton. Sorry.
I’m not predicting this to be doom and gloom, to manage my expectations, and/or to “gain followers so that I can sell more ads”. I just plugged the remaining fixtures into my fixturator and I get Arsenal finishing with 74 points, Chelsea with 73, Man U with 73, and given how easy their remaining fixtures are, Totts should finish with 79 points. Anything less would be the bottle job of the decade.
In a lot of ways, this feels like the worst case scenario so, let’s all touch wood that I’m wrong and that we get ourselves an old fashioned away form religious revival at Arsenal.
The thing about Arsenal’s away form is perplexing. Why are we so good at home and so really awful away? My own theory is probably too simple: possession. But Arsenal’s possession in away games is 5th best in the League. So, my backup theory is that Arsenal are simply vastly overperforming at home, because Leno is saving at an astonishingly high rate, and that we are a mid-table team without that home form.
Is that “going negative”? I don’t feel like it. I feel like I’m just saying “this is the work that Emery still has to do.”
If you look at the other teams around Arsenal we have some of the worst defenders of the group. The players seem to love Mustafi’s personality and I don’t blame them, he seems like a loveable goofball. But he’s a huge problem defensively. In fact, I think he’s as bad both defensively and offensively as people who hate Coquelin tend to think Coquelin was. I’m not saying that to criticize those folks who didn’t like Coquelin, rather to point out that Mustafi is just really really awful.
Arsenal’s defense is anchored by a player who (I think) wouldn’t even make it into a mid-table team like Leicester. If Emery can engineer a 4th place finish, then that has to be seen as something of a huge coup.
As for Everton tomorrow, I have us losing in my predictor. But here’s how we can win:
Everton lead the League in headed shots per game and are 4th in shots from set plays (both at home stats). So, the first step is to work on set play defense. To his credit, this is one area that Mustafi is pretty good at. So, if we can win the set play defense, we have gone some way to getting points in this game.
Ironically, Everton are also one of the worst teams in the League in set play defense. They have allowed 6 goals from set plays at home this season, 4th worst. You would think that a team which has a dedicated place kicker like Sigurdsson would be really well drilled at set play defense but they aren’t.
The problem here is that Arsenal are last in the League in set play shots per game (away) with just 1.4 per and last in the League in headed shots per game (away) with just 1.1. This is because we just don’t have the forwards to score those types of goals and our defenders aren’t adept at it either. We are such a weird team.
All of this leads me to the conclusion that we are either going to have to get a rare Arsenal away set piece goal, or we are going to just have to get at them in open play. They aren’t really an awful defensive team from open play – middle of the table, just allowed 12 goals from open play at home. And then we are going to have to do that thing we do where Emery allows the opposition to come at us like waves on the North Shore during Christmas.
All that said, I think the best way for Arsenal to take 4th place is to be a high pressing side away. Everton aren’t a great possession team. They have a lot of players who will cough up the ball in dangerous areas. Yerry Mina is a hugh liability, as are Idrissa Gueye, Gomes, and even Sigurdsson. Gomes is 2nd on the team in being dispossessed – press him whenever he has the ball.
And between Richarlison, Walcott, Sigurdsson, Bernard, and Davies, there are a lot of loose touches in there just waiting to be gobbled up for a counter.
This is the first of a bunch of really tough games. I’m going to be as positive as possible through this period, no calling Emery out, only praising players who deserve it, and giving all of my good vibes to us getting that 4th place finish. I can’t wait to see how Emery approaches these games.
2 – 4 to the good tomorrow, Tim. Just a feelin’. Many thanks for your help re: Ramsey’s song.
I’m going with 77. This season away Arsenal are averaging around 1.5 points per game. That should give us around 8 points from the last 5 away games. And we should get 6 points from the two home games against Palace and Brighton (one should hope), which comes down to 14 points.
Unless we slip at home, we will probably win one or two, draw one or two and lose one or two from the away games. Win at least two and try to draw as much as possible and we should probably clinch that fourth place.
The only thing I would point out is that Arsenal’s away record over the last two years suggests less than 7 points from away games per game. Also, Arsenal got 7 points from these away fixtures last season. My prediction is 2 points below those two only because all of the teams we are facing have a slightly higher metric than last season. It’s a complicated formula but regardless…
This isn’t science, of course, but my feeling is that Everton will be an easier game for us than Wolves. The squad is well-rested, playing well, and most importantly, the competition for places is high. Ramsey, Guendouzi, Ozil, Mhki have been playing well, and he has a selection problem in midfield (esp. when you add Iwobi and Kola to the mix), even with the uncertainty over Xhaka, and with Torreira serving the last match of his suspension. Xhaka and Koscielny were missing from team training pics… read into that what you will.
Im going with an away win, but they’ll score against us. I like Richarlison. He’ll give us a test. Of course, I want Theo to acquit himself well without damaging us.
For the run-in, the enforced rest will have done Torreira good, and we’ll be stronger in an area in which we’ve been good of late.
Me too. I’m going with a win tomorrow, but losses to both Wolves and Watford.
Would be a great result if so!
LOL
“like waves on the North Shore during Christmas”
Is this a Oahu’s North Shore reference? If so, I like it. That is indeed when the big waves come in.
I graduated HS in Hawaii. Mililani Town! Go… Trojans???
No doubt mustafi has flaws in his game namely being way to eager to challenge /slide tackle at every possible occasion. However if we look at his stats for clearances, blocks etc, he is not as bad as people make him out to be. Our defence has been shambles for a few years but the rare few patches of clean sheet runs have involved mustafi playing. More importantly, if we have all of our defenders fit and playing now, he would be our 4th choice defender behind koscielny, sokratis and holding. Therefore people should lay off of him and support him as he can still improve and cut out mistakes like many other players have done under Emery.
Tim, I don’t think our away form this season can be used as a reference to predict these coming away fixtures.The circumstances are vastly different.
We were coming of a lengthy unbeaten run and riddled by injuries during those string of terrible away result, not to mention two of those defeats were against Liverpool and Man City.
We are a better team than those we are playing,and we’re clearly more focussed recently ,so I don’t think we’re going to slip up as badly as you suggest.
I’m fairly confident we’ll make top four. We might even make top three if Sp**s continue to be Sp**sy.
LOL
That was a rancid performance.
Everton wanted it more than us.I find that both puzzling and unacceptable. They had nothing to play for.
I think the problem is possession. Its not a lack of it though, but the quality of it. I usually tell people that possession in the hands of Xabi Hernandez is different from possession in the hands of Wilshere, and 60% possession for a Guardiola team is different to 60% possession for a Mourinho team.
We might have possession, but it’s not effective or necessarily dominant possession. We had the same issue last season where our possession didn’t seem like something we worked for, but a ploy on the part of the opposition to draw us out and then exploit space behind us. That’s why we struggle to take possession back when we are behind, or when we are ahead and trying to kill the game.
I am suprised that we haven’t used a midfield of Xhaka, Torreira and Ozil in away games yet. They constitute our best midfielders in possession because of their ball control, decision making, tactical awareness and consistency in large volumes of passing. I do think playing the best players offers more quality of possession, rather than relying on tactics alone. But we will get there. I actually hope Emery gets us third and the Europa League title, and I think he will.
I do think we are ignoring something great that we have been looking for in a while, but we have made the Emirates a fortress. We have been amazing at home for the last 5 years and people have ignored that fact to focus on what is wrong elsewhere. Maybe this season the home form has been a little tainted by the performances, but teams really struggle against us at the Emirates.
I am somehow not worried about the game against Wolves, I am more worried about the coming two. If we beat Everton and Watford (and by “beat” i mean 4 points), we should be able to afford a loss at Wlvhpt. If we lose these two now, it kind of wouldn’t matter anymore.
Getting very annoyed with Elneny. Has done nothing at all so far, no ball security, no forward vision.
What’s more dissapointing than the game is the absolute disgrace of a commentatory, right from the begginning.
Biased right from the start.
The Arsenal, based on the performance today, deserve nothing less than 7th place!
Yeah, that was crap. A Guendouzi/Elneny midfield just isn’t going to get it done.
And the forward players didn’t really cover themselves in glory either. Iwobi helped when he came on, but too late by that point.
We don’t have the height/strength in Laca and Auba to be lobbing crosses in.
Torreira will be back and well rested, hopefully Xhaka and Kos too. If Kos isn’t back by next weekend, we have a big problem in the back.
Hey Tim, what did you say next week’s Powerball numbers were?
I missed it over the sound of extricating my foot from my mouth…
My gawd I hate watching the Prem on NBC. The in-studio presenters are utter crap. Going back to my usual routine of checking the scoreline on the interwebs and watching goal highlights on youtube…
Go on, Tim. Tell us “I told you so”.
Didnt see the game, but good call.
Nah.. that would be rude.
Anyway, still lots to play for.