Arsenal play Newcastle today and by every metric we should have this one.
- Arsenal have won 9 in a row at home
- Newcastle haven’t won an away game since December 15th against Huddersfield and have only taken 3 points in their last 7 away games
- Head-to-head Arsenal have won all of the last six home games against Newcastle, a streak which stretches all the way back to a 1-0 loss in 2010
- Rafa Benitez has never beaten Unai Emery, he’s 0-0-2
- Newcastle’s xGD in away games is -0.94 per game
- Arsenal’s xG in home games is 2.05
So, by every metric we should have this game. It’s an easy one. A certain 3 points.
The one thing that has me worried, however, is exactly the stats above which say we should win this one. Bernd Leno’s unbelievably high saves rate at home has Arsenal over performing defensively. Arsenal are +8.25 in goals allowed this season over xGA at home. With the amount of shots we have allowed, the we should have conceded 20+ goals but we’ve only conceded 12 at home. Only Spurs are “more lucky” than Arsenal this season, they have an xGA at home of 21.51.
And this is a pressure game. Whether we like to admit it or not, Arsenal are under a lot of pressure here. A win today rockets us into 3rd place above Tottenham. Even a draw today puts us in third place.
And then there are the injuries. Arsenal’s Torreira is suspended and Xhaka and Ramsey are doubtful after picking up injuries on internationalism duties. I guess Guendouzi starts in CM and then who? Joe Willock? Ainsley Maitland-Niles? Mkhitaryan? D.Suarez? Elneny? Probably Elneny? No matter who Emery plonks down in there, there will be a lot of energy in midfield and not a lot of defense.
We know that Newcastle are going to counter attack. Guendouzi can not have one of those games that he seems to have all the time where he just lets people run past him.
Rondon is a beast. He’s going to give Arsenal’s center backs fits. And Miguel Almiron is one of my favorite players from MLS – he is going to be running at Arsenal from exactly those deeper positions which get Guendouzi and Elneny into trouble. And he is fast and deadly. Though, the one thing he doesn’t do well is finish (yet) and he’s missed all 11 of the shots he’s taken so far this season. Almiron was never a top finisher but he’s kind of due for a goal.
I should be looking forward to the games against Everton and Watford. Those are the big ones. Those are tough games. But I have a weird feeling that this match against Newcastle is the turning point for our season. A win today, no matter how ugly, means that St. Totteringham day is in our hands.
Please, everyone bow your heads and say the Football Supporter’s prayer with me: may everyone stay switched on for 90 minutes, may the boys play as hard against this team as they would against Tottenham, may the goals be kind to us, may the passes all be slick, and may Mustafi have a great game. Three points. Amen.
Just so I understand Tim, we should worry when the stats are against us but we should also worry when the stats are in our favor. Do I have that right?
I agree though we might find it tough without at least one of Xhaka and Ramsey in midfield. If they can’t start I guess it would be Elneny and Guendouzi in midfield? That’s not very encouraging.
It’s a must win game – because:
1. Momentum!
2. Majority of our remaining games are on the road
3. Psychological advantage
4. St. Totteringham’s day
5. Dropping points would be a rather cruel April Fool joke
YES WORRY ALL THE TIME OR GET OFF MY BLOG
I think when stats seem lucky over a long period sample, it could well just be latent driving factors.
We know we have a home game advantage, but what exactly is causing it is sort of unobservable in data.
Surely this is not the hot hand fallacy?
How do we even know Tim’s stats aren’t April fool joke?
I just have to ignore them then and not at all worry about the result today.
Easy.
I suspect that Mustafi will be a reserve, but I hope the Guendouzi doesn’t switch off.
One more prayer. That the refs and linos dont screw up. Gosh, they’ve been awful these past few weeks. But for their incompetence, we’d already be above Spurs.
Hope they dont affect the game today.
I dunno. I agree with Tim that Newcastle could be tougher than we expect. But I’m going for a 2 goal win. For us.
Eschewing the Home/Away criteria– Newcastle is 5-2-2 since late-January. Rondon has 2 in two, Perez, a nemesis, with a brace before the break. Yedlin always seems to give us fits too.
I think JW1’s observation is a salient one-Newcastle is in good form. Especially concerning if we are forced to go without Xhaka and Ramsey.
I suspect Almiron will end his drought against us. ATLU is really missing him.
It’s been too long since we’ve celebrated St. Totteringham’s Day.
“Arsenal are +8.25 in goals allowed this season over xGA at home.”
I get what Tim is saying [we’ve allowed 8.25 goals less than our xGA], but this sentence confused me a bit.
I’m praying for only one North London club to look like bottlers.
Speaking of, the manner in which Spurs lost is especially funny after reading this article by Amy Lawrence
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/mar/18/premier-league-top-four-manchester-united-tottenham-arsenal-chelsea
Ramsey starts.
Our most critical omissions, imo, are Torreira and Koscielny.
Ramsey has really been very good these last few months. He could have taken it easy after signing for juve, but he’s been an absolute professional for us.
halftime…
Is there a blade of grass on that pitch that Ramsey didnt cover? He’s been the best player, offensively and defensively, by a mile. What a player.
Correct call from the ref to disallow the earlier Ramsey finish. Pretty brain dead from Sokratis to almost absently mindedly tug at a player who wasnt affecting the play.
Nearly had another goal of the season contender, but Mesut should have gone with his right foot. Kolasinac one of the few bad points for us out there. His delivery’s been awful
Half-time vs. the Geordies and Ramsey is the difference once again. He really has been class especially in the 2nd half of the season.
Otherwise a most forgettable half.
Fu#k Anthony Taylor
10 wins in a row! Vamanos Unai, vamanos, muy buen, gracias!
Anthony Taylor isn’t biased… he’s just bad. The “best league in the world” has the worst refs.
In the end, comfortable, even with 2 goals disallowed. The first correctly, the second harshly.
Third, baby. And it’s in our hands.
Taylor is a bald headed pri#k.
Harshly?
What did Laca do wrong on that play?
I think you’ll find, upon closer examination, that you agree with me
From his petulant behavior it looked to me like someone is worried about Arsenal’s superior goal difference.
I don’t believe Taylor is a bad referee.
I think there are decent English refs who could easily do the job in Europe and the only reason they get overlooked by UEFA is because the call games in the PL to a different standard by design.
PGMO is clearly in a business with the FA to enhance the PL product and observing FIFA’s rules is secondary.
I wouldn’t go as far as to say they pick winners and losers, but imagine the ratings bonanza if on the last day of play two teams can still win the title and four teams can still fill the two remaining CL spots.
Next, away at Watford, that’s a loss.0 points.
Crystal Palace at home? We should squeeze out 3 points there.
Away at Wolves? Can’t see it. 0 points.
Still on the road at Leicester. Nope, no points, maybe a draw.
Brighton at home, yes. 3 points.
Finally, away at Burnley. A draw and a point.
So are 7 or 8 more points enough for big money Champions League points?
Next, away at Everton. We usually play pretty well against them. I don’t know why you’re so willing to throw in the towel against Wolves, Watford or Leicester either; these are all teams that play pretty openly, which suits our style. If our defense stays healthy (i.e keep Mustafi’s minutes to a minimum) I can see two wins and two draws there without even squinting my eyes too tight…
What scares me is if we need a win from the last game to finish top 4, and Burnley need a win to stay up. That could get ugly. Although the though of our boys consigning Wyche and his gang of goblins to the lower echelons does have a certain appeal.
Did you see his teammates reaction after the game? Lacazette was hugging Mustafi and Auba laughed at his cross. It feels like his teammates love him even if he is a disaster.
I do like that we seem to have a good team spirit thing going on. So much better than the last couple of seasons. And I don’t actually dislike Mustafi, I think his effort is good but he does, how shall we say, show an inclination to make not the best decision on a frustratingly regular basis. But I’ve seen worse defenders for Arsenal, sadly (Ian Ure, Willie Young, Mikael Silverstre for starters).
We stink up the joint away. There is no getting around our absymal away form. Think of all the points dropped. We can lose away to anyone and have done. It’s going to be close right to the end
No denying we’ve been disappointing away from home, but is it really THAT bleak? Three of our five losses were at Citi, Liverpool and Chelski. We had good performances at Tottenham and Utd, and took points off them. I dunno. We’ve been so up and down all season, with some very uneven performances home and away. Since we seem to be on a bit of a roll right now I guess I can overlook the so-called “away jinx”; if Kos and Soc stay fit I think we’ll surge to the finish line. Here’s hoping, anyway. But yeah, expect a close run from here.
“Sucks to lose Ramsey for nothing but one good thing to come out of the situation is that it’s created a slightly more sober environment for his qualities to become more appreciated”.
— Tim Stillman on twitter, with a contender for comment of season.
my view of ramsey not extending his arsenal contract has always come down to one man and that’s unai emery. i believe his assessment suggested it would be bad business for arsenal to sign ramsey on so much money and they’d already signed guendouzi who is younger, cheaper, and more talented than ramsey, not to mention he’s ready to play. the problem with that goes back to an argument we had last summer and that’s ramsey has experience that guendouzi simply does not. btw, guendouzi hasn’t proven he can score yet either, but i digress.
the experience that ramsey has over guendouzi means he’s going to be more consistent; it also means he’ll cope better in the tough games because he’s seen more at this level than guendouzi. the fact that those two had never played together before yesterday (astonishing) confirmed my beliefs that emery want’s guendouzi to replace ramsey. however, i have to give emery credit in recognizing that ramsey’s experience is helping arsenal put food on the table right now. only time will tell if emery got the ramsey decision right. it was always bad to allow the player to leave on a free but i don’t know how it could have been avoided. i expect ramsey to start any big game arsenal has until the end of the season.
a few months ago, i believed that emery would fail at arsenal because of his failure to relate to special players. it seems he’s struggled mightily with this throughout his career. the continued omission of mesut ozil saw arsenal play some ugly football this season. over the past few months, however, we’ve seen an uptick in both the fortune and in the quality of arsenal’s play. that has coincided directly with the reintroduction of mesut to the side. i don’t know what’s happened between he and emery but at this point, i don’t care. arsenal look fabulous.
ozil is a catalyst to the arsenal side. everything seems to work better when he plays. not only does the team play better but the individual players seem to play at a higher level.
an aside: whenever i see elneny (mo-mo) play, i’m immediately taken back to that mid-90s movie, casino. sam rothstein, played by robert deniro, is chewing out one of his employees that got hustled and he calls him a “f-cking mo-mo.” now, i don’t know what a mo-mo is but deniro made it sound like some gangsta sh*t to say to somebody so me and my buddy walked around calling people a f-cking mo-mo all the time…….that, and joe pesci had us calling people “f-cking degenerates”.
what a movie, lol!