If you’re the kind of person who says “the only stat that matters is points on the Premier League table” then you can stop reading after this paragraph. Congratulations, comparing like-for-like matches (e.g. Newcastle away last season – lost, and Newcastle away this season – won), Unai Emery has earned Arsenal 13 more points than Arsene Wenger last season. Wenger’s Arsenal had just 47 points, Unai’s Arsenal has 60.
However, if you’re interested in the underlying stats read on. They tell a bit of a different story.
First, I’m not an Emery Out guy (I hate that I even have to say this). I don’t think it would matter if I was, Arsenal don’t have the money to fire Emery, so he will be with us until the end of his contract. Second, these are just stats. They aren’t conclusive proof of anything. They don’t say Emery is a good or bad manager. They are simply data points. If they say anything, they say that Arsenal that still has a lot of work to do if we want to challenge for top four.
And finally, there are still 8 matches left in the season. These matches are crucial for both the “table-finish/points are the only stats that matter” folks, and for the people who like to look at all of the data points. There is 21% of the season left and Arsenal have to play five away games. In those same away fixtures last year Arsenal won 2 (Everton and Burnley), drew 1 (West Brom last year, this year Wolves), and lost to Leicester and Watford. Arsenal also conceded 4 pens, got a draw at WBA thanks to an OG, won against Burnley thanks to a pen, and dropped 2 clangers for goals against Everton. So, when you’re looking at this data keep in mind that a lot can and probably will change in Arsenal’s final 8 games of the season.
A note on goals and shots: I removed penalties from both of those sets because penalties feel way too random. I do include them separately, in the defense stats, because they are a problem for Arsenal and I want to see how Arsenal are performing on that metric by itself.
Here is the data:
First, the attack:
Shots are down over last year (-76), but goals are actually up by 1, and Big Chances (one-v-ones with the keeper or shots from very close range) are exactly the same. Big Chance conversion is roughly the same but overall because Arsenal have taken fewer shots, the expected goals number is slightly down by -3.57.
Offensively, Arsenal look almost exactly the same as last season. The one key difference is that total shots taken are way down but that’s ok, because Arsenal’s conversion is way up. This 15% conversion rate is well above average (~10%) and explains why Arsenal are taking fewer shots: we tend to see fewer shots taken when teams score at a higher rate.
Remember, this is only comparing exact same opponents at the same venues last season and this.
Now the defense:
Shots allowed have skyrocketed and are up 48 over last year. This is leading to an overall negative shots ratio for Arsenal, where Wenger had a residual of +110 shots, Unai’s Arsenal – again likely because they are scoring at such a high rate – have a -14 shots ratio. Typically, this is something that makes stats folks nervous.
However, despite allowing a lot more shots, Arsenal seem to be allowing more shots of a lower shot quality because expected goals are exactly the same.
Arsenal allowed 332 shots last season which had an xG of 45.24. That’s an expected goals allowed per shot of 0.14. That’s pretty high shot quality. In contrast, Emery’s Arsenal allowed 380 shots and 45.32 xG. That’s an expected goals of 0.12 per shot. Still not great, but better.
Arsenal are allowing the same number of Big Chances as last season (57 v. 56). But critically, Leno is saving those at a higher rate than Cech did last year. Leno’s 54% (Cech saved 34% last season) is back up there with top keepers which illustrates how important Leno has been this season. In fact, overall, the opposition conversion rate is way down. From an atrocious 12% overall last season to 8% this season and the opposition big chance conversion is down from 46%* to 34%.
Overall shots may be up, big chances may be the same, but goals allowed is down by 8 from last year. That is basically thanks to Leno’s saves.
Penalties conceded are up (again, we are matching opponent for opponent, year on year). And Arsenal have conceded the same number of shots off errors, but fewer goals off errors (from 13 to 9). The fewer goals off errors is largely because we dropped Cech. Cech allowed 6 goals off errors last season, Leno only has 3 this season.
However, Arsenal have still conceded 16 goals off errors, penalties, and own goals combined. Last season they conceded 15 in these same matches.
I will also say that Arsenal had a lot of errors and pens in the matches that we still have outstanding, 4 pens, exactly.
This may be unsatisfying but the underlying data shows very little change at Arsenal. They are still an error-prone team (the worst in the League) and they still concede far too many good chances for their opponents. The only difference this season is that Arsenal are converting and saving at a high rate.
*45% is average big chance conversion for as long as I have been looking at the data. So, we were just average and when combined with the number of shots allowed, you can see why we were in trouble defensively last year.
Does not being interested in these ‘data points’ posts make me a Luddite? Do I really need to go digging more deeply than 47 to 60 to know I’m watching a better performance?
My metric is I’m enjoying watching Arsenal football more than I have in at least 3 seasons. It’s not often pretty. There’s plenty of room for improvement. But it just feels better. I am very satisfied with this for now. That’s my data point.
Fair.
The only thing I will add is that a lot of people still aren’t enjoying this season and I think the data points show at least partially why.
I’m curious (and this isn’t loaded, its genuine): how do you see the Venn diagram of people who aren’t enjoying the season and the Wenger diehards?
And to emphasize…I’m not blind the often horrific defending and…other issues. I just feel like the bleeding stopped. It’s not enough forever and ever. It would be enough for 2019.
Ha! I don’t know. I bet it’s a much stronger correlation for people who hated Wenger last year. Most of the “AKBs” I know are the first to say “give Emery six windows”.
Very interesting. Two answers I wasn’t expecting. It sounds like there’s a portion of the base that just want hate (the Manager).
I think we live in a time of great anger.
Tim: “I think we live in a time of great anger.”
With great anger comes great irresponsibility
I dont know why I can’t reply to the posts below, but…
1. Absolutely
2. Ha. (Except for all the consequences.)
Yes.
Mate your analysis is excellent, as always, and really interesting. The question you have to ask yourself is: what is football? Is like the lottery; where all that matters is the numbers/results? So you just tune in and check out the numbers. Or is it entertainment: the journey is almost more important than the outcome. So your analysis is perfect for the lottery model of football – results driven – crunching the numbers. But what about the flavour, the style of football. If you ask has Emery improved Arsenal, you have to ask what is the quality of football? At Arsenal we take good football for granted. I would not say he has improved it. I would say he has maintained the ridiculously high standard set by Wenger. We have had some ridiculously sublime goals this season and pretty much every other game, we have a candidate for goal of the season, in no particular order:
Xhaka (who I love) Crystal Palace away
Xhaka (who I love) Newcastle away
Ramsey Fulham way
Laca Liverpool at home
Laca Fulham at home
Auba Totts at home
blah blah blah
Whatever the numbers say can, we all agree the football has been great to watch.
Xhaka is a bum
Arsenal have been lucky
If you tell us one more time how much you love Xhaka, Im going to officiate at the wedding 🙂
Ha ha ha. I can’t help it. I love him. Oops did it again.
At times the football has been great to watch. There have been good moments. I’m still on a high from being United.
Other times the football has been abysmal. Have we forgotten humiliation at BATE so soon? Many of the games this winter were horrible on the eyes, particularly the spell where neither Ramsey nor Ozil were getting much playing time. I suspect that a significant number of fans would disagree with the assertion that we’ve been great to watch this season.
Beating United. Definitely not being United. Though I do love the salty tears of United fans complaining about how they ‘dominated’ the game, and only lost because of a fluke and a supposedly dodgy penalty. It feels good to be on the other side of that for once, ha.
“ Have we forgotten humiliation at BATE so soon? “
You do understand the concept of a two legged tie don’t you.
I hope when Arsenal beat Chelsea in the EL final you may find enough mental strength to allow this humiliation to subside just enough to maybe crack a smile 🙂
Patronizing much? Obviously we went through. I was just pointing out that that was ugly football.
For me there are 2 things that need to happen for us to make top 4.
We need to tank the Europa League because I can’t see us beating Napoli if we get to the final or draw them along the way. Our direct rivals will then have at least 2 extra games to contend with and United are still in the FA Cup.
Our away form needs to improve asap and this will happen if we play our best 11 from here on in. Hopefully Kos and Sokratis can stay healthy til the end of the season.
Second, these are just stats. They aren’t conclusive proof of anything.
===
Thank goodness! Because I think we look better this year than last. Or, that I’m starting to see a plan/strategy in terms of how the squad is used, and it looks better suited to a) our resources / existing squad and b) the modern game. I think Emery has shown in glimpses that he can improve us, but that we shouldn’t expect it to happen overnight (i.e., one season). I also like Emery’s attitude. He doesn’t moan about refs or make excuses, and he doesn’t get caught up in media drama, which I think will translate to the squad’s mentality.
I still don’t think we’ll finish 4th this season, but based on what I’ve seen from Emery, I think we should be optimistic about our top four chances next season.
Excellent analysis, Tim.
But we’re better. No question. The big 6 results are a good indicator. We’ve somehow always had the measure of Chelsea, but with the exception of City and Liverpool away, we’ve been competitive in fixtures which we’ve seemed, in the past, to approach with an inferiority complex.
As you said, the addition of Leno has been key. So, I would argue, has been the addition of Torreira.
In defence, we had looked like Dutch sluice gate until recently (and your numbers show it). Koscielny hasnt got the credit he deserves for the turnaround. With his partnership with Sokratis gelling, Arsenal look more assured at the back. And of late, when we’ve been breached, Leno has made big saves. Touch wood we’ve turned the corner.
I’d have answered that question differently a month ago. The last 3 weeks have been transformative, because our turn-of-the-year form was dire. With the re-integration of Mesut, Mhki stepping up and Emery finding his midfield Mr Tactically Flexible in Ramsey, we look more fluent in attack as well.
It’s a promising springboard, even if we look likely to lose Ozil in addition to Ramsey.
Lol, really short memories.
I bet you would have answered differently after the Renne game which was less than a week ago.
Turn of the year was awful. Neither playing quality football nor grinding out ugly wins. We have played noticeably more attractive football the past few weeks.
Where have results differed last season to this:
Cardiff (Stoke) A – 3-2 – 1.63-1.12 – gained 3
-Chelsea A – 2-3 – 2.48-2.26 – dropped 1
Nuke A – 2-1 – 0.92-0.75 – gained 3
Fulham (Swansea) A – 5-1 – 1.04-1.82 – gained 3
Cry Pal A – 2-2 – 0.84-1.26 – dropped 2
Wolves H – 1-1 – 1-1.93 – dropped 2
Bournemouth A – 2-1 1.72-0.68 – gained 3
-Man U A – 1-1 – 1.74-1.28 – gained 1
Southampton A – 2-3 – 2.25-1.41 – dropped 1
BHA A – 1-1 – 1.33-1.2 – gained 1
Wham A – 0-1 – 0.75-1.17 – dropped 1
-Chelsea H – 2-0 – 2.14-1.37 – gained 2
-Man U H – 2-0 – 1.4-2.66 – gained 3
-Tottenham A – 1-1 – 2.06-1.42 – gained 1
+13 points, +6 points against the big 6
I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Leno. He seems to have grown in confidence and looks more commanding than he did at the beginning of the season. For $20m or so, a nice little pickup.
I would say Emery has changed things for the better that we are only seeing some proof of but that will increase as we finish this season and be a jumping off point fir next. Some deficiencies can’t be fixed in 1 season or with the same players. Others can. Cases in point…Papa >Mustafi … Toreira/Guendouzi > Elneny … Leno > Cech (of now, not overall career)
Plus the stagnation, the seen it all before, the player favouritism (same players always play no matter from or opposition) is now gone. Opposition is planned for, doesn’t always work, but is then changed in-game.
I yearn for more 1-0s and the comfort of knowing we can shut up shop if we need to. I’ve enjoyed our fight more but we still look like we don’t know how to defend and our clean sheet count is almost comically low. Hopefully this will come next season, along with a scoring winger to give us a plan B in attack, and we’ll become contenders.
Let’s look at the xGA from matches (understat)
MU(H) 2,37 Bou(H) 0,89 Sou(H) 0,61 Car(H) 0,60 Che(H)0,76 Ful(H) 1,71 Bur(H) 1,03 Hud(H) 0,31 Tot(H) 1,09 WW(H) 1,87 Liv(H) 1,20 Lei(H) 0,93 Wat(H) 2,62 Eve(H) 1,07 WHU(H) 1,18 MC(H) 2,02 Total 17,81 in 16 matches=1,11/match
Tot(A) 1,77 Hud(A) 1,97 MC(A)3,03 WHU(A) 0,67 Liv(A) 3,71 Bri(A) 1,39 Sou(A) 1,21 MU(A) 1,34 Bou(A)0,65 CP(A) 2,38 Ful(A) 1,32 New(A) 0,41
Car(A) 0,77 Che(A)1,72 Total 22,34 in 13 matches =1,72/match
It is a worrying sign that in match against MU the defence was worse than the trend. In home matches Arsenal since WW game were just very good in defence as the season continued. But in the away games there is still much to improve!
People confuse a rebuilding process with improving on Wenger’s team.
What Emery surely didn’t do at the outset was to sit down with his staff and look carefully at Wenger’s stats of shots allowed / conceded in prime or whatever and devised a plan to improve on them.
To each his own but here are improvements as I see them:
– total points tally by 12
– more points gained against other top six ( btw, when was the last time Arsenal fans could say with a straight face the club outplayed Man U, Chelsea and Tottenham in the PL home and away, and not get laughed out of the room even by neutrals)
– less predictable line up and set ups
– no more sacred cows
– no scapegoating officiating, schedules, injuries or lack of investment
– unpredictable and often timely substitutions
Also , I find it weird that anyone can think Arsenal are stuck with Emery for the duration of his contract because they can’t afford to fire him.
Say what?
Even if we ignore the second season break clause Arsenal installed in the deal, the 6million per year Emery gets is not enough money not to send him packing if and when Arsenal brass deems his efforts to fall short of THEIR expectations.
Ultimately, Emery will by judged on league position and trophies won and although you could make the case that solid stats should translate into improving and achieving these two, I seriously doubt many will care about any stats if in May Arsenal are a top four team and hoisting the EL trophy.
We couldn’t afford to buy back Chambers. Cost cutting everywhere.
The funny thing about the top six record is that we have a worse record against middle and low table clubs and we get outplayed by tiny teams in away games.
True, and this is a worry but at least you can’t call Arsenal flat track bullies anymore.
Besides, even the likes of Pep and Klopp had their issues with lower table teams in their first season.
Maybe not exactly getting outplayed by them but definitely losing points in away games due to lack of intensity, long balls and set piece plays.
I’m not a huge Emery fan btw, in fact he wasn’t even on my list of preferred candidates but let’s not underestimate the scope of the job of turning this club around.
You don’t bring in five new players ( six if you count Suarez) just to fine tune things.
Hilariously enough some of the same fans who quoted Wenger’s believes – that you couldn’t bring more than a few new players without interrupting the system – as if it were gospel, now are expecting Emery to improve even more precisely because he’s brought in so many new players.
Agent Provacatom.
😇
Tim, what do you think explains the significant improvement against the other top six sides but struggling more against mid and lower table sides? Any theories?
Possession.
When we play middle to lower teams we still play like a possession team but we aren’t very good at possession and are easily pressed. Thus we give up too many chances and are riding our luck.
Also, I don’t know if I can honestly say thaat we have improved against top 6. The results havce improved for sure.
I’ll wait till the end of the season to conclude. There have been lows and some highs. The win vs ManUtd shouldn’t whitewash the doubts from earlier unless there is a sustained run here on in. Top 4 is still the test for me. If we are still qualifying for the Europa league in a season where ManUtd and Chelsea have looked less than convincing, I would not say that it is an improvement. And the football has not been better, except in spots.
I’m not sure the data you presented shows little change.
– Shots conceded: more but of lower quality. This could be better coaching.
– Less shots, but higher conversion rate. Again, better coaching but also a more conservative approach.
Less tangibly, our results against top 6 teams have improved. This may not translate into an improvement in overall quality, but certainly improves the moral among fans and the team, that we won’t be bullied by our ‘peers’.
I believe there is an out for the club in Emery’s contract after two years, conditional on some things (like not qualifying for the Champions League). So he could be sacked next year.
Ok, cool.
Consider that this year Ramsey and Ozil have been bit players, Bellerin and Holding injured long term, Koscielny only returned in December, Mhkyi out for a couple of months… I think the comparison works out for the better when you consider the personnel available. Sokratis, Guendouzi and Torreira are in their first full season of the PL.
My issue with this season is the lack of a definitive style/system and the technical standards have dropped dramatically hence the ugliness of some games. Nothing I dislike more than sloppy first touches, poorly weighted passes, laconic movements off the ball… but from a results standpoint I would think the whole has been greater than the sum of its parts.
Our opinion of Emery will be swayed by how we finish out the PL season. (Probably too much) He’s continued our strong form at home, and slightly improved on our away form. If, in the final 5 away games we rack up points, it will be a big improvement over last season. If we continue to struggle, we will deem it a marginal improvement or even a disappointment. We have done well against Top 6 – better than last year. But can we improve against mid and lower table teams? Strange that this will be the measuring stick, but it really contributed to Wenger’s decline.
I think Emery has done a good enough job of managing players’ minutes, especially the veterans’ that we are well-positioned to finally exorcise this demon. I picked us 5th at the beginning of the season, but I’m starting to be optimistic about our prospects for top 4.
I enjoyed the stats Tim. For once I could understand them without too much effort, luddite that I am.
I’m not going to go over what transpired last season and then compare to this. It really doesn’t matter. Of course we had to improve. The manager lost his job last season. Plus we completed the rebuild we began in January.
I was annoyed when Emery/Arsenal resolved to throw away the fruits of that rebuild. Results were belying performances for a while, and when the results dried up, the performances were not only exposed, they got worse. The players seemed to have lost belief.
Emery, to his credit, changed it up. Ramsey began seeing more time on the field and Ozil was brought back in. The performances improved and results picked up too, and the mood got better.
The season is still on a tightrope though. We could go out of the EL tomorrow. It’s going to be neck and neck in the race for the top 4 trophy. From being a good season, it could go back to being at best a transitional season. Except, as you point out, the club is cost cutting, and I have a feeling the transition is going to continue.
The reports from the ‘Fan Forum’ seemed to me to be laying the groundwork for selling the likes of Ozil and Auba. Monchi probably will come in, and I’m not too keen on him anymore once I looked closer at his record.
I don’t know. I hope I’m reading this wrong, but the signals from the club worry me.
I share that trepidation. Ozil and Ramsey have been crucial to this run of form, most of the improvement has been against top six clubs which is positive but what do we do to replace two really hard working and top quality players if they are going to be axed next year? Huge problems down the road, especially if we don’t finish top four or at least get to the EL final – because the club has money but won’t spend.
“The reports from the ‘Fan Forum’ seemed to me to be laying the groundwork for selling the likes of Ozil and Auba. Monchi probably will come in, and I’m not too keen on him anymore once I looked closer at his record.”
What is this “fan forum” and reports?
https://www.football.london/arsenal-fc/news/what-raul-sanllehi-told-fans-15959870
“Koscielny’s recovery and return to the team has been so seamless, so matter of fact, that its magnitude has been easy to underplay. That he fought back from the brink to captain the team again with a series of impressive performances reveals everything we have come to know about the player and the man these last nine years. Ain’t nobody, like Koscielny.”
https://arseblog.com/2019/03/counting-the-kos/
Good to see that Stillman agrees with me. We’ve needed heart and brains at the centre of our defence, and it is better for it.
@tim – this may be entirely spurious…
I’m not a statistician but work with those who are and massively appreciate their expertise (hence enjoying you and your insights – and thoughts from the gut as they’re what I do from being a fan too!)
While (I admit randomly) looking at understat I noticed a pattern that seemed odd and glancing at the other top 6 and a couple of others the pattern seemed unusual.
Basically our Goals Against happen fairly evenly through the match. There don’t seem to be ‘spikes’ (eg we get tired at end of matches or especially lose concentration only at end of periods). We seem to suffer goals at any stage.
Is this a sign of something (eg mistakes) or is it completely irrelevant and about as much use as “length of hair of outfield players”?
anyway – lots of half-and-half scarves in North London so shows how much Rennes supporters see this tie as being a big moment for their team (c’mon – lets stuff em).
I’ll give it a think but I’m not sure. Look at the xGD – Looks like we start strong, dip, and then come back strong.
Absolutely despise Chelsea, but.. anyone else have a softness for Giroud? Scored 3 today and I couldn’t help but smile for him
Giroud was never an elite striker. There are less than dozen or so at any given time but he more than a competent goal scorer, a complete professional and a top class guy. If you don’t like Olivier Giroud I don’t like you. Plus the daughter still thinks he’s dreamy, even with the beard.
Just the daughter?…come on, mate!
You can admit his handsomeness 🙂
I do.
Na, na, na, nana na naaaa…
Always a soft spot for that bloke…
watching the valencia game. wow! i’ve never seen a crowd get so quiet so fast.
soooo many wanted tedesco but schalke just sacked him after the man city result in europe. good! i hate schalke.
It wasn’t just that loss. Their whole season has been horrible. From 2nd to fighting against relegation. I don’t know what happened. It seems like this sort of thing happens in Germany a lot.
both spurs and schalke are scum, full stop!
Lol.. Why though? I’m genuinely curious.
Dortmund supporter no?! They’ve an epic rivalry with Schalke. The Ruhr Derby i believe they call it.
that’s how you start a game!
Watching Ramsey play so well is very bittersweet.
31 minutes in and both the arsenal strikers should be off with straight red cards.
Aubameyang is the reason I never cite xG. I simply watch the game. So I’ll simply say this. The bredda misses a trucktonne of comparatively easy goals. Honesty, he should be leading premier league players (league and all comps) by some.
But he played well all the same. So we’ll, it feels weird injecting even mild criticism.
Well done, the boys. Instant impact by Mhki, Ramsey again excellent. AMN coming on leaps and bounds every game.
Curious performance from Xhaka who was terrific against United, but didn’t play that well tonight. Seemed to not trust his right foot tonight
The bredda? smfh
Why does that word, Jamaican for “brother”, cause you to smfh? I’m curious.
Not unusual for one black guy to refer to another as “the brother”. Not sure why, but it is.
I think he might’ve been accusing you of cultural appropriation…not sure if that is the case or the support for such.
Bredda or bruddah, don’t you worry none ’bout dem naysayers…
The good guys won today, so we are all brothers-in-arms.
I can’t appropriate what is mine 🙂
yeah, ghost gooner probably doesn’t get it. i, however, played a ton of footie with caribean breddas so i understand their jargon as well as their heavily-accented english. even when i’m coaching, i still say “some tings” and the kids look at me like, “what?”
it’s worse when i drop bumba, batty, and raas-claat bombs; yes, that’s how i speak to children. i wonder if tim’s filter will moderate.
😂Oh, man. Watch your mouth, Josh.
Hadn’t seen much of Jamaican culture in recent popular media till Season 2 of Luke Cage. Not sure how accurate the accent and words were, but it must be up there among the most beautiful ways of speaking the English language. Raas-clat is just a magnificent sound.
Aubameyang is from a francophone country so ‘bredda’ is not part of his linguistic/cultural lexicon.
I’m from a anglo saxon leaning country and I’d find it inappropriate for someone to refer to me as ‘bredda’ just based off the colour of my skin.
Ha! Indeed. 🙂
you can make an argument that emery’s made the team better. they’ve certainly been more competitive, particularly against the teams at the top of the league. however, the away form still sucks. considering that he’s also had a ton of injuries to deal with, emery’s done okay. i’ve been saying it since january and mustafi turned in another good performance today.
for a while, i thought emery had lost the plot with the decision to marginalize ramsey and especially ozil. in my mind, it reinforced the established idea that he didn’t know how to deal with special players like ozil. that’s a reputation that preceded him. luckily, he’s brought those boys back in and hopefully not too late.
in the end, i believe the decision to release ramsey was emery’s and i think he’s regretting that one now. ramsey is awful in the 10 but very solid in the 8, especially behind a player like mesut in the 10-spot. guendouzi has to grow up.
I agree. Ramsey is clearly a big game player for Emery. What has been surprising is his ability to interpret the coach’s tactics. Whether it’s in attack, as against Spurs; or in defence as against Chelsea and United. Youre a defence guy, Josh… Im sure you’ll agree that he played far more defence — important defence — against Chelsea and United.
Too late, the Welshman has disproved some lazy stereotypes, the most pervasive of which was tactical indiscipline. He joined the attack as much as he did under Wenger because that’s how Arsene wanted him to play. He man-marked Jorginho and Pogba into ineffectiveness because that’s how Emery wanted him to play. He won 8 of 9 tackles against United, a lot more than anyone else on the field.
He’s also looking, Ramsey, as if he’s enjoying his football, and enjoying the tactical responsibility. As I said before, good luck finding all that in this market, in one player, on the cheap. Add in transfer fee and what we’d have paid Ramsey, and we would probably come out ahead of the game. False economy. But hey, maybe we’ll make a Koscielny-like signing (transfer fee to ability ratio) in replacement.
It’s also all the intangibles. He gets what it means to play for this club. The fight with Dele Alli and the ‘Sit down he said’ post. The celebration at Wembley. A consummate professional. A great guy who saves rhinos. He should have been our captain for many years to come.
Every time I think about this decision and how we went about it, it really makes me annoyed. I can’t shake the feeling that it was political. Because in footballing and financial terms it makes no sense. UNLESS we’re planning to shrink the wage spend massively, which we might be doing.
I’m quite sure it must be a decision from higher up to as you say ‘shrink the wage spend’. I’m not privy to our finances so can’t comment on if our overall team wage bill including a large increase on his wages would put us in trouble with FFP , but surely room could have been made somewhere to accommodate Ramsey’s reported £150/200K per week. He’s actually a near world class player and virtually irreplaceable at less than £200K per week. Who in our squad can fill that role? I just think that somewhere somebody is making mischief over Ozil’s salary.
Re last night’s match.
It should have been much closer than the score suggests. If Rennes had concentrated more on attacking us & not attempting to get one of our players sent off they might have scored a crucial way goal & put the match into extra time & who knows what would have happened then.
Our second goal was a bit comical TBH. Both Auba & Kola were definitely offside, but the officials seemed distracted by Kola & his walk back ‘on’ with hands up. Also looked like Ozil didn’t bother making a play for the ball as it came across & Ainsley just went for it.
Thinking of Ainsley & his natural position being midfield, he has terrific recovery speed for the defensive side of his game and looks good when attacking through the middle has lots of energy and has scored a couple this season, so perhaps he might be a good fit for a box to box Ramsey replacement.
Worst possible draw in the next round (Napoli) with the second leg away & if by luck or whatever we get through that the semi final will be against the winner of Villarreal or Valencia.