I was mucking around with some stats based on this excellent blog by James Grayson in which he points out that an extra goal a game is worth somewhere between 0.76 ppg (for lower table teams) and about 0.45 ppg for top teams.
His method was pretty simple: how many games did Manchester United win by 2+ goals, 1 goal, draw, lose by 1 goal, and lose by 2+ and what happens if you add a goal to each of those games. The answer is above for United, 0.45ppg. If you want to shorthand this you can say that a goal for a top team is worth about half a point.
What’s fascinating is that I’ve done these calculations over with Arsenal stats and they match up. Arsenal are closer to 0.47 ppg if we add a goal. I’ve also done this calculation two ways: subtracting a goal allowed per game (which means Arsenal would have conceded just 13 goals last season – not too realistic in the modern era), adding a goal scored per game (which would have Arsenal scoring 112 goals last season, which is again, not very realistic).
By just making the defense better by one goal per game that only helps Arsenal by 0.32 goals per game. The reason for this is that there are 0-0 draws in every season. Those games have nothing to subtract from. By adding a goal to every game, those 0-0 draws become wins and the average goes up to 0.47.
For example, if Arsenal had locked down the defense to Tony Adams in 1997 levels and conceded just 13 goals, but kept scoring at the same rate (74 goals) they would have earned 75 points and finished 4th on goal difference.
However, if Arsenal had gotten the perfect set of results which added a goal per game (either through subtraction or addition, whichever was needed) and which had no 0-0 draws (Arsenal won all of them), Arsenal would have scored 81 points and had a goal difference of +42, which would have edged manchester United out. For 2nd place.
This illustrates how difficult it is to get Arsenal out of the middle of the table*. It also shows us the mountain we have to climb to challenge for the League title.
This can be done but it has to be done in incremental steps. Liverpool have jumped from 4th last season to title contenders this season by adding 0.43 goal difference per game. Their progression over the last four seasons looks like this: +0.34 GD/g, +0.95 GD/g, +1.21 GD/g, +1.64 GD/g.
There is a lot of talk among Arsenal supporters that “Liverpool fans wanted Klopp out after his first year” and I do remember seeing some of that. But there’s always a small percentage of any group that believes something way out of the norm. And one of my maxims is that the loudest person in any room is always the asshole.
If you look at the jump he made in goal difference per game, it was +0.61. In one season. And each season, he’s made the team better. Through investing, yes. Through player sales, yes also. Liverpool spent money, accumulated players, sold them when they were hot, and used that money (plus a modicum of owner investment) to improve the team, every season.
What’s telling about Arsenal is that the goal difference per game was +0.61 last season and is +0.6 this season. In other words, by that measure, Emery hasn’t improved the team. Yes, he’s had an awful injury nightmare at center back. And of course that is one of the factors for why the team hasn’t improved. But what’s needed is a giant leap forward at Arsenal. That means seeing the team get appreciably better, mostly in away games. Until that happens, they are going to sit here in mid-table.
The multi-million dollar question is how. Arsenal don’t have two or three £100m players to sell in order to fund a Liverpool-style splurge. Just the opposite, Arsenal have a number of players that are going to be difficult to shift. Özil is essentially kryptonite. People say “sell him to China” because that is the only place foolish enough to pay his salary. But remember that the player needs to agree to a deal. Will Ozil want to go to China if Arsenal can find a buyer? That’s a huge question.
Mustafi is probably the most proffered name but he’s another player that Arsenal are going to have a lot of trouble shifting. Have you seen him play? Like Steve Martin once said about comedy: It ain’t pretty. Still, I’ve seen guys like Sakho get shifted so there has to be someone out there for Mustafi. Maybe at a cut rate of £10m? It really depends on his salary. The problem is that replacing him with a World Class defender is going to cost £70m. That’s what VvD cost Liverpool. And Arsenal also have Koscielny phasing out, Monreal phasing out, and Lichtsteiner to get rid of. Arsenal need significant investment in defense. Much much more than just a few sales are going to provide.
I’ve also seen suggestions that Arsenal should dump one of Lacazette or Aubameyang. Another idea with some merit. Both players are getting old and won’t hold much value over the next few years. But shifting them could prove tricky as well. But I think one or both are saleable.
The problem is getting value in return. If you want to add goals to Arsenal (which I think you certainly do) then selling your top goal scorers is not the way to do it, unless you can get someone in who can score as many if not more. And the problem there is that it’s impossible to unearth goalscorers for value. Everyone knows who the best players are and who will help. This is where the scouting team have to be at their very best.
And then there’s the midfield. Ornstein reported that Arsenal are after Rabiot from PSG. He’s available on a Bosman and wants £350k a week. He also wants to go to Barcelona. But does Arsenal need more midfielders with a spotty work ethic, who pout and down tools, are overpaid, and are prone to defensive lapses? I hope not. But it could very well be that Arsenal rescinded their offer to Ramsey in order to get Rabiot.
And finally, there’s the problem of Arsenal’s dearth of homegrown talent. Apparently, Arsenal have so few that they are including injured players on the list in order to be able to name a full squad. This is a massive problem going forward. Welbeck and Ramsey are both dropping off the squad this summer. Sure, some academy kids will come up but will we have enough senior homegrown players to field a full squad next year?
Hopefully, what I’ve shown you here is that Arsenal have a ton of work to do to get into the Top Four. We also have a poorly constructed squad, and a lot of deadwood to move on. Some have said that Emery had no input into the purchases this summer – they are creditable sources and make good arguments. But I wonder if Emery has just stepped into an untenable coaching job with us. One which he was invited in to take the fall for the failures of the past.
*Top table is 1-5, mid table is 6-15, bottom is 16-20
I think there was a Freakonomics podcast a while ago that discussed the “defense wins championships” mantra as a myth when championship seasons across a number of different sports was analyzed.
If we sign Rabiot for some ridiculous salary, then we’ll know Emery has taken control of the transfer strategy. When Ornstein says we were in the market for a “box to box” midfielder, I could not understand that at all, what is the vision as far as a set-up? I would think Emery still wants to steer long term to his preferred 4-2-3-1, there’s no role for a box-to-box player there. There’s a need for a #10… which we don’t have anymore because we want to get rid of Ozil. I would put the odds of us signing Rabiot at 70% because a) he’s a free, b) he’s an ex-Emery player and c) Barcelona have made it pretty clear they don’t want/need him. So are we going to 4-3-3 and hence the need for a wide player/winger and Rabiot would form a triumvirate in midfield of Xhaka/Rabiot/Torreira which would be the PSG equivalent of Motta/Rabiot/Veratti?
Me thinks Xhaka is on the way out. If you are looking for potential sales to fund needs, not many names fit that description… Xhaka, Mustafi (please), Aubamayang, Lacazette, Iwobi, Maitland-Niles, Bueler, Bueler, Bueler…
Yes, either a 433 or a 442.Either way the idea will be to create overloads in wide areas on both sides of the pitch. The mids to pass the ball there (Why I think Xhaka will not be sold) and stay deep to be able to prevent the counter. As far as I can tell, that’s how Emery wants us to play.
I think Emery generally has one of the 2 (in a 4-2-3-1) play as more of a box-to-box/late runner type role. I think that’s what he is grooming Guendouzi for with Rabiot perhaps a bit of insurance (assuming that rumor is not just fluff)
I hope it’s fluff. Rabiot is not a game changer but anyone on anywhere near that salary has to be.
Currently we’ve a worse away goals against than Cardiff. Defence is where we need to fix it.
Fear Xhaka and Laca will be the causalities for improving the defense. Prediction…
Nkunku/Rabiot or someone else signed to replace Xhaka.
Premium CB incoming for replacing Mustafi.
Dead wood clear out and subsidized loan move for Ozil.
Love the numbers…
Something to possibly consider, and it seems people may have forgotten…
Arteta WILL be the future face of Arsenal. Maybe dig a bit deeper into that coaching choice fiasco that happened at the end of last summer.
I would love to see the back of Xhaka. Such a terrible signing.
Agreed.
Question…
If you were choosing and could only choose one…
Aubamayang or Lacazette?
Lacazette all day for me.
Meaning to keep. My bad.
Lacazette has the technical and personality qualities that will make him useful as age catches up with him. Auba doesn’t.
Can’t wait for someone to make a poll. Expecting it to be really close. For me… Auba offers more goals than Laca if you suit the team style to him. Laca has age and more rounded abilities. At the moment we are playing poor that we can’t judge them both. I guess if Arsenal make them available then the market will tell us who is more valuable.
It’s Lacazette who should stay. He is a more well rounded player and the better center-forward. Aubameyang is great at reading the attack and timing his runs into the box. If one HAS to be sold, it’s Auba but ideally I would like to hang on to both as they bring different qualities to our attack.
At this point, if you sell either, they’d both just be broken shells of the players they are. Their camaraderie is epic.
I think we need a reliable left back more than a midfielder. Maybe we can sell Monreal and recoup some money to finance that purchase. The cost/benefit rule applied to Rabiot makes him an expensive and risky proposition – one I would stay away from. I would rather we get a wide forward. We can probably get some money for Elneny as well. Ozil should be sold if he is not a part of the club’s plans (it will be a tough sell but let’s assume for now he still has value and can be moved on). Mustafi can fetch 10MM I think. So.. let’s say we sell Monreal (5MM), Mustafi (10MM), Elneny (7MM) and Ozil (33MM) – that should give us around 55 million Euros. If we are willing to spend about 55-65 million out of pocket, then BOOM – that’s a 120 to 130 million WARCHEST! Add up all the saved wages from those guys + Cech, Derelichtensteiner, Ramsey, Welbeck and I think we can probably buy a couple of very good players. It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out. I am probably being too optimistic.
Liverpool, btw, were spending all they could before Klopp got there. Even hapless Rodgers wasn’t shy about making waves in the transfer markets. Buying Coutinho was probably the best purchase he has ever made in his career. I don’t see us on a similar trajectory. Our owner has alligator arms. This is gonna be a slow, drawn out process and unfortunately I think we will have to go through many more years of frustration.
Isn’t Monreal out of contract this summer?
Wasn’t he given a two year contract renewal? I might be wrong.
In September Emery was saying Monreal deserves a new contract. Some reports said we’d extended for another season. No idea if it was officially reported.
He signed an extension.
Objectivity Injection: Mate, the article is great. I hate to disagree agree with you because, as always, your pieces are well-researched and even better argued. If Arsenal is “an untenable coaching job”, how coaching jobs in the Premiership (of the 20) or even the world are tenable? Remember when the narrative was that we had to break the bank to keep Ozil, because his departure would be a sign of the demise of Arsenal and our failure to keep our biggest stars. Now it is imperative to sell him to get him off the wage bill. The narrative changes because melodrama sells. It is this that is important and not objectivity. We need to be objective. The mood comes following a defeat away to Man City, but no team in the premiership, not even Liverpool would beat Man City at home right now. It seems every defeat is amplified and every victory even excellent victories (Chelsea comfortably dispatched) overlooked.
“Remember when the narrative was that we had to break the bank to keep Ozil, because his departure would be a sign of the demise of Arsenal and our failure to keep our biggest stars.”
I have never argued this.
My narrative can be results driven, I’m not sure that this article is victim of that.
I mean the general narrative in mainstream media. I am not saying in anyway you use melodrama to your advantage rather mainstream media. We should not fuel this.
it’s not just that arsenal lost to man city, it’s that they looked like a big steaming pile of dog poo in the loss to city. you can blame certain players but the team’s approach made the manager look like a coward who was afraid to try and win against guardiola. after watching city lose to newcastle and struggle against everton this afternoon, they were there for the taking if emery had a little courage. he needs to link up with dorthy, the tin man, and the scarecrow, off to see the wonderful wizard of oz and get some courage.
a game like arsenal/man city used to be considered a big game because man city knew that arsenal were capable of beating them if they didn’t have their stuff together. when arsenal play like that, it’s not a big game anymore.
the draw of the neutral observer to arsenal has always been that, win or lose, they were always entertaining. good luck filling that stadium with the most expensive tickets in the world and that kind of soccer. there’s simply too much stuff to do in london.
I have been trying to point out that for all the talk of the coach being attack minded, he sets up defensively against big teams. Hence, my reference to Draxler’s comment after PSG’s loss to Real Madrid.
There was also this
https://mobile.twitter.com/davidjaca/status/998640401555828738
I think our squad building was in good hands. But when the new coach isn’t using the squad the way it was intended, either on his own steam or because he’s driven by the Ceo’s cost cutting, it’s time to get out of dodge. That’s what Sven thought evidently.
Sven had done a brilliant job shaking things up last Jan for zero spend. Shame we had to lose Giroud but still… He built on that and gave us a 2-3 year window with an elite attack, and brought us some young mids who will be awesome. Plus a good experienced CB. His only failing, signing Licht. And I do believe that’s because there was no budget for a backup RB AND he believed someone in our reserves was a year away from stepping up.
I’m sorry but this was not an untenable job.It was a big ask to get us back to the CL without massive spending, but the basis was there. WAS.
If at all he’s a fall guy, it’s not for the past but for Raul who apparently backed Emery, and then went and pulled out the rug from under him with austerity measures and pushing out the GM.
Among Sanllehi’s deals at Barca. The Paulinho fiasco and the Neymar scandal. He’s now discarded Ramsey for nothing and has severely devalued Ozil.
We’re not making the CL this year unless Suarez is a huge success. We aren’t creating enough shots to score enough goals.
We are not making CL this year unless we win Europa. Suarez will be pants.
shard, my man, you’re 100% right. this job was big but it wasn’t untenable. arsenal have had bad luck with injuries but despite having arguable the best strike partnership in the world, they look toothless in attack. no one’s afraid of arsenal anymore.
concerning raul, it’s always been the demise of those big teams in spain to allow non-football personnel to make football decisions based on their “knowledge of the game”. it always ends in disaster with huge sums of money being wasted; certainly not the arsenal mold.
One thing that’s happening a lot at the moment is fans attaching blame for management decisions to individuals like Ivan or Raul. The evidence actually suggests that our major decisions related to players are made by groups of people. Like how Emery was chosen. The whole point of bringing in Sven and Raul, or more importantly establishing their job titles in a managerial spider chart, was to go from the old system with a single point of failure to a collaborative system.
Neither Raul or any single individual can know the financial cost benefit of keeping or losing a player, plus his statistical trendline, plus how he trains week in week out and adapts to the coach’s instructions in games.
The other point about Raul is he’s never been a player identification guy, even at Barca. The person responsible for that during his time there was poached by City to work with Pep (sorry but I can’t recall his name). Raul’s job started once the player had been identified, which is why it’s okay to blame him for the dodgy nature of the Neymar deal, but not for Paulinho (who they ended up turning a profit on in one season). We got Raul for his contacts and ability to do deals with the diffficult major agents
And JoshuaD, I don’t think people who’ve been waiting years for season or any type of ticket to watch Arsenal will lose faith any time soon. The Arsenal fanbase in London alone is truly vast and spans multiple generations. Premiership contests are getting tougher as the league improves and of course the Emirates is a great place to see it. Arsenal are also in the top 10 for goals scored in all competitions across the major European leagues. There’s a lot to be frustrated about, but you can’t deny you wouldn’t have loved to be in the stadium when we’ve been at our best this season.
Kaius
That’s exactly my point. I liked the structure we’d built post Wenger. Sven as GM to make recruitment decisions, Raul to handle the commercial side of football (and maybe he was even instrumental in the Adidas deal) and Gazidis as the CEO to oversee it all.
Raul was never meant to be the guy in charge of the recruitment. You may say he’s still not but clearly he’s the person in charge now and that’s why our squad decisions look erratic.
We’ll get Monchi and it will all settle down. But the club have undone all the work that had gone before. I don’t believe this was either necessary or wise. Why do you think Sven left? (And Guillem Balague wrote a character assassination piece on him)
Raul is not solely responsible for squad decisions or austerity or “pushing” Sven out. I understand the attraction to those narratives though. It’s easier to blame individuals than understand how decision-making might actually work at a club the size of Arsenal.
We spend too much time hyperventilating about chronically inconsistent players and internal staffing decisions.
Mislintat got a more exciting offer and chose to leave. Good luck to him. Ramsey wanted to play abroad too. Good luck to him.
sorry tim, but top 4 is a b.s. goal. the only benefit of finishing in the top four is the champions league. like i’ve said before, the champions league is a tournament for top teams fighting for domestic championships, not teams fighting to get into the top four.
you ever notice when arsenal was focused on trying to win the league, champions league qualification just seemed to take care of itself? when you aim for the top place, you tend to be among champions. aim small, miss small. top four isn’t aiming small. it’s a sloppy standard that allows too much room for mediocrity, which undermines performance standards. it’s settling for less. it’s b.s.
Rabiot on a free is a gamble arsenal would probably have to take. With a small budget, there’s no way you can play safe and still mix it with the big boys.
well Faith is right about melodrama. Holy potatoes Batman, I feel like I am listening to the Adam Jones show here in Boston, a very gifted broadcaster who manages to find the worst possible look for each Boston team which should be hard to do given two of them won championships this year and a third is set up with assets other teams dream of having. But Jones manages it and he does it well and he does it for a reason: to get angry Boston stports fans to call in to his show. It works a treat for him and it works for your favorite British sports rag too.
I feel like what is perhaps lacking is perspective. This is an oft overlooked issue in our modern day hurly burley hyperbole sports news cycle where you’re either the Blonde Arrow’s holy knees if you’ve just won, or you are Balotelli’s poorly healing plantar warts if you’ve just lost. But if we step back for a moment, we can see that nothing has really changed at Arsenal since Emery took charge, nothing substantial anyway. He still has largely the same players, the same outlandishly good opposition, the same legacy to contend with. We all said at the beginning of the year he needs at least one Calendar year to even begin to sort this mess out. He hasn’t managed to work enough miracles yet for the likes of some folks, as unlikely as that 22 game run was. In August, did anyone expect Arsenal to do anything but lose away to City? Why get anxious about it now? In August, did anyone expect Arsenal to be top 4? Why stress about it now? Did anyone expect that we would have “fixed” our defense by February? If you did, I might have prescribed Librium for your dream fever and perhaps a one point wrist restraint to stop you from pulling out your IV. We all said Emery needs time before he is judged. What say you we actually give him that time instead of hosing him down for losing to City and having Arsenal exactly where we belong in the table considering their lack of financial investment compared to their rivals now in recent seasons?
Regarding Rabiot, I have to say handing out a Max contract to an injury prone player with attitude issues is about the surest way to sabotage your team’s future. See: Wall, John
I’m a “6th place” believer right now, but when I heard Andrew and James talk about our remaining fixtures the other day, I thought, “whoah! that’s pretty good! we could do this!”
But then I also thought, “this team made Cardiff City look good.” So yeah. 6th place.
I’ve said this before, but basically I believe the men in charge of Arsenal chalked up this season to a write-off (in terms of league position and results) before it began. The real work was to commence this summer in terms of rebuilding the squad, establishing an identity going forward, and raising expectations. Ornstein’s discussion of how Mislintat approached his first year at the club only confirmed my belief. This was a freebie to get everyone settled in. I know the club said all the right things about the goal being getting into the top four this season, but actions speak louder than words. It’s all about this summer and next season, and I have to hope that’s the only reason we were given a paltry transfer budget this January.
i, too, thought arsenal were saving money for the summer. rumor has it arsenal will only have £45 million to spend this summer. we’ll see if that’s true.
My theory is that we only entered this austerity period as a condition for Sanllehi taking over. Before that we weren’t saying Ozil is too expensive or we can’t afford Ramsey’s contract, and Gazidis would’ve been crucified if he said we can only do loan deals.
I don’t think the board would willingly write off a season. I see it more as a sign of lack of confidence in the guys there. A wait and watch. Hence no loans even with obligations to buy.
No CL, and I’d expect us to not to spend more than last season. Possibly less.
I guess with all the comments above and my personal experience, it is easy to get sucked into the media perspective.
Arsene Wenger and Arsenal were for a period, the usual suspects whenever the media is looking for a crisis, for whatever reason.
Somehow the quality of our attack got us a 22 match winning run and now we seemed to believe that top 4 would be achievable. It is dependent on our splendid attack getting service and with Mhkitaryan back in the squad, we might just be able to get this done.
The reality is Emery has 2 seasons to get us into the Champions League and not one. The media induced frenzy is just what it is, hype.
Emery was told he needs to rebuild the team, and I can perceive this from a comment he made a few weeks ago about the difference between PSG and Arsenal.
So he is supported to freeze out Õzil and there will be a cull of non performing senior players. Nketiah will be the 3rd striker, while we get wide players in forward and full back positions meaning we are looking to bring in 3 or 4 players, 2 FBs and 2 wingers, Nkunku is both a wingback and winger and he seems to be an option for the summer.
Reiss Nelson,Willock and Smith-Rowe will be promoted, while Elneny and Ramsey will leave. Xhaka might not be sold, unless an exceptional offer comes in.
Mustafi is a different proposition entirely and he should be sold. If Chambers returns he will probably be fit for the DM position and we are also getting Bielik back, who has also played well as a DM on loan, so it’s a mixed bag of tricks.
Emery might phase out some senior players to use younger players already close to the first team to push for the top 4 next season, this season was all about discovering what works and what doesn’t. But there’s no easy way to tell fans this, so the media is allowed to mesmerize the fans, while they strategize quietly.
That’s my explanation for Emery’s calm, he isn’t complaining about injuries, he leaves the highest earner out of the team, he plays his trusted player instead, because he knows this season is just the audition, for who stays and who leaves.
This post and your BITS post are really outstanding Tim.
Couple of people have said something similar but I think something we all sense(d) with both Arsene and Unai’s Arsenal is we make errors in the key moments. Torreira may be our top tackler at 3.9 per game but it’ll be the one damn tackle he misses per game that the opposition exploits to spring an attack and score from.
I remember Giroud going through a long period when he was either having a drought, or when he scored his goals didn’t pick up points. By the end of the season he’d have 15-20 goals but a lot of them were like, the 3rd goal in a 3-1 victory, or the consolation goal in a defeat.
So yeah Emery and the squad are clearly putting in work. But looking at our rivals with lower BITS numbers it’s safe to say a better quality of player may put up lower overall numbers but still make the crucial defensive action during a game’s big moments. I don’t know how stats gurus measure that but it’s fascinating to ponder and thanks for the work you put into it.
Up to 10 players could or should go out.
I think we keep both strikers, they can score and Auba isn’t bad off the bench, the key will be devastating inside forwards who can carry the ball at pace and transition quickly.
I was surprised we didn’t use the ball over the top to Auba against the higher line of city, all seems so slow and I don’t think we have the technical quality or pace to play through the thirds.
In terms of home grown we’d have Holding, Niles, ESR, Nelson, Eddie, Hector I think plus some kids. Bit of a problem. I don’t know if any older players will soon qualify for nationality. Depends also what Brexit does to the rules.
Agree with the VVD impact, statistically are there any other centre backs who’ve made such an impact or are we saying only 70m gets you that?