Arsenal’s January transfer dealings remind me of an episode of Red Dwarf, Better than Life, where players are put into a virtual reality simulator which caters to their every whim. In the machine, Lister gets the perfect room, The Cat gets to eat live goldfish, and Rimmer’s first wish is for a car. Instead of a cool car, he gets what looks like a Yugo.
Rimmer changes his wish and upgrades to a Jaguar, fuzzy dice, Yvonne Magruder, and military marching music. For a few minutes it’s all going well for Rimmer, who also attains the rank of Rear Admiral, but before long, he’s married to Magruder, has 6 kids, and owes Outland Revenue back taxes. Rimmer exclaims “My brain’s rebelled. It just won’t accept nice things happening to me. It just keeps fantasising horribleness” and soon, the boys from the Dwarf are buried neck deep in sand, jam smeared on their faces, about to be eaten alive by ants.
Back in reality, Arsenal are seriously after Ivan Perisic.
I shouldn’t be so negative. He’s not quite jam on the face, buried up to the neck in sand, eaten alive by ants but neither is he the sort of player we all dreamed of getting in at Arsenal in the “wide position”. He’s a hard worker, for sure, and runner up in the World Cup, but he’s not going to win a ton of one-on-ones, his passing is suspect, and he’s going to be 30 years old in 5 days (February 2nd). He looks a lot more like a Lichtsteiner than the Dembele we were perhaps wishing for.
Not to get too wonky with the stats but (I’m gonna) I will say some positives about Perisic: his xG90+xA90 is 0.62, which puts him at or above his average for the last three seasons at Inter. That he only has 3 goals and 2 assists could be down to a World Cup hangover and some poor finishing on the part of his teammates: his combined xG for goals and assists is 9.07, so he is off by about 4.07 goals this season.
He’s 4th on Inter in combined xG and xA per 90 and 3rd on the team in xG Chain p90. These numbers aren’t meant to map 1 to 1, but they give us a sense that Perisic is more creative than his actual goal numbers indicate this season. And that’s backed up by the last two seasons at Inter where he averaged 19.5 goals either scored or created (20 goals last season, 19 the season before and he doesn’t take pens).
While his crossing and goal chances created are nice, his dribbling numbers are poor, less than one successful dribble per game, and I think this is a big problem. When people think of a wide player they want someone who will take on the opposition: Sane averages 4.5 dribbles per game, Boufal 7.7, Dembele 5.5, Sterling 4.7, Jadon Sancho 5.4, Pepe 4.4, Kalu 5.3, Gradel 4.6, Felipe Anderson 4, and so on. Ivan Perisic’s 1.8 attempted dribbles puts him 18th lowest in all top 5 European leagues. And this season isn’t an anomaly.
And don’t @ me when he pulls off the odd dribble or two – like Walcott when I pointed out that he’s a poor dribbler. Players like Dembele and Sterling run at the defense all the time. It’s a key part of their attack. Guys like Perisic will pull off a sick dribble every once in a while but they are pass and run players, not one-v-one players. And of all the forward-type players that I think Arsenal need, a guy like Iwobi – running at the defense – is a key. Either that or a very solid midfielder who defends from the front and almost never turns the ball over.
The flip side of that is that he’s also the least dispossessed wide midfielder in Europe. He averages just 0.5 per game. He also has the 2nd fewest “Unsuccessful Touches” of any wide player in Europe, with 0.9 per game. So, he’s no Alexis Sanchez, he’s no ball dawdler.
The problem is that his passing is just ok. He’s not an Eden Hazard, making 60+ passes a game, he’s 31st out of 90 wide players (with more than 10 appearances) in passes attempted per game with 32.5. But what bothers me is that he misses a lot of short passes. Whereas he’s 31st in attempted passes, he’s 5th in most misplaced short passes with 8.2 per game. This is especially ugly when you see that he only attempts 30.7 short passes per game meaning that his short passing is a very mediocre 73%. He basically loses the ball as often as Eden Hazard and connects on a short pass about half as often. He isn’t dispossessed because he doesn’t take on opponents and he’s also not very tidy in short pass situations.
Defensively, he’s also not putting up great numbers. He attempts just 1.3 tackles per game, which is 14th worst of all 90 midfielders I looked at. His interceptions numbers are better, 0.7 per game (40th of 90 players), but his blocked passes are pretty good with 1.2 per game (16th best). So, he’s a mixed bag in terms of defensive output. High blocked passes numbers and low interceptions are a sign of a player who doesn’t quite have the step to intercept the ball.
All of this indicates to me a very frustrating type of player – one who is going to be a key part of your team’s attack as a pass and move player but who is also often going to kill the movement because he struggles to make short passes, especially under pressure.
That last bit about pressure is key for me. The Serie A is very much a low-pressure type of game. Players are often allowed space and time as teams tend to defend spaces rather than the man or the ball. Every team in the Premier League now pressures Arsenal. It’s a key defensive tactic against Arsenal.
So, against teams that sit back, he can’t unlock them with a dribble and is unreliable in quick pass combinations. And when he’s under pressure, he tends to turn the ball over unnecessarily. Combine those flaws with his age – he will be 34 when his contract runs out at Arsenal – and with the money that Arsenal are reportedly offering (£60m in transfer and wages) I think this could be a terrible deal for Arsenal.
Sources: whoscored.com, understat.com
I like Perisic and as a willing runner and finisher he’s good. The Walcott example is a good one I think, and you know, I think he could thrive under the same conditions. playing out wide with Ozil picking out the passes to him and Auba/Laca/Ramsey.
But that’s not happening, he’s old for this kind of investment, and I fear my club has no long term vision. Understandable for Emery I suppose. He’s got 18 months on his contract and if he doesn’t make the CL he might wonder if that extension will be signed.
But I can’t understand why the club would waste the short window provided by the attack we had in place, dismantle it basically, (and not even recoup money from it) and then go out and bring in someone like Perisic again.
Agree 99.9%, Shard.
However, the logic to me is that we need clinicalness from the wide positions. When Auba and Laca arent scoring, we wonder where the goal will come from. Not Iwobi. Mhki has four, but he isnt great in front of goal. Mesut and Ramsey are good/decent (non-striker) finishers, but both are in the departure lounge.
If I’m Reiss Nelson, I’m thinking “wtf, Arsenal?” Draxler and Brandt and players like that are still young, and I’d feel better about one of them (or the young France-based players we have been linked to) coming in.
Spot on about long-term vision. But hey, weren’t we saying that Sokratis was old? He’s now our No 1 central defender.
Yeah that’s a fair point. He’s supposed to add the assist/goal threat that Iwobi for all his ball carrying and dribbling skills lacks.
As a loan deal I like it. As a permanent deal, hmmm.. I’m leaning towards no. I think what he adds in being clinical, he’ll drop in terms of dribbling and creativity.
Or maybe he could play as a RWB instead of Bellerin too. I mean, he could in theory and I would like him a lot more there in terms of what he brings to the attack (and how much we need someone on the right) but defensively?
But yeah, I guess my main problem is the long term plan, and no, I was not calling Sokratis too old. I said we missed experience in defense last season with Per semi retired and Kos half injured. So I was happy we signed him, and it’s been a pleasant surprise how quick he still is.
Yep, Sokratis’ injury has really put a dent in my hopes. The difference between him and Mustafi is night and day. Not surprising we got sliced open as soon as he went off. And it really seemed like Kos and he were starting to develop a solid pairing. As much as we say injuries are part of the game, and a manager has to deal with it, the number and timing of injuries we’ve seen on defense this season has been excessive, even by Arsenal standards. Continuity is the foundation of defense, and we have instead been a revolving door in the back line. The loss in the FA cup may be a blessing overall, to allow us to focus on Euro and any slim chance of finishing Top 4. With such a depleted lineup, fitting in the cup games might have just made our chances for the big prizes worse. Let’s hope we can survive long enough in Euro for Kos, Papa and Mkhi to return.
I guess the logical thing to do would be to leave Reiss-Nelson on loan until the end of the season, bring in decent short term cover for the same period, and then re-integrate Reiss-Nelson into the squad/team in August. We seem to be attempting to sign players on loan that we are then apparently obliged to sign at the end of the season,which doesn’t seem like a great commitment.
In theory, we shouldn’t be too bothered about age/sell-on. Arsenal should be wealthy enough not to have to worry about that. Relative to that, the focus should be on top 4 and Champs League. Not only is that added revenue, but it increases the likelihood that high-quality players will want to come to Arsenal.
Sadly, I don’t think the checkbook is quite as open as it should be. So the big question then becomes is a player good enough to justify the gamble of a medium amount of money.
Perisic seems to be right on that line. He is a pretty decent threat offensively, but as pointed out in today’s blog, not ideal. He’s a lot better than a Lichsteiner, but still might not be enough. On the other hand, I think if we can pick up a decent defender, the addition of a decent wing might be enough to get us into the top 4 or win the Europa League. I don’t think just buying a wing will do it.
I really don’t get the link to Perisic. Unless it’s strictly a loan (which I don’t get from Inter’s side) or it’s some kind of elaborate swap for Ozil who has been linked to Inter. Nkunku, Malcom, Suarez – I get those signings, even if they are right now lesser players than Perisic, because they are potentially appreciating assets, not depreciating. And what is Reiss-Nelson’s role when he gets brought back next year? Isn’t he playing the wing for Hoffenheim?
Why the obsession with a winger for Emery? That to me signals he’s not a fan of the 4-4-2 that worked against Chelsea and seems intent on either the 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 and isn’t happy with the wide options (Myhki hurt, Iwobi inconsistent, Ozil benched, Welbeck hurt/gone). If they bring in Perisic my guess is Lacazette and Aubameyang are going back to rotation instead of playing together.
Yes, rotation means, we can get a game changer fresh from the bench.
Thanks for bringing me down to earth on Perisic. I was dubious about his age, but your analysis of his dribbling issues and inability to perform with pressure are a serious red flag. He seems a lot like Mkhi – and we don’t need another player like that. We need pace and dribbling out wide. If we’re not committed to pick up his contract option over the summer, then a loan might ber worth a flyer if we can’t find anything else. But that’s about it.
Perisic is a baller and would be a good signing.
We don’t need more pass masters to tap the ball back and forward outside the penalty area like ozil or more indecisive dribblers like iwobi who get their head down and run into trouble several times a game.
Perisic is just the sort of direct player we need.
The Arsenal fanbase seems to have assumed Reiss Nelson is returning as an automatic pick next season.He has run into a brick wall in Germany,is barely getting any minutes at all, the goals have dried up.
I’m still hopeful(you have to be as an Arsenal fan) but I think Smith-Rowe,Willock and Mavropanos are just as good prospects,and hardly certainties.Reality is,history tells us very few youngsters make it.
Yeah, I was wondering about Reiss Nelson. Haven’t heard much or anything good about him for a long while, it seems.
I’m fine with the Perisic signing. United were going to offer £40m for him just six months ago. There’s a player there who will bring a lot of good qualities to this side (and to learn that he’s not perfect, as this article demonstrates, is not really surprising or a deal-breaker). I wouldn’t get too hung up on age and re-sale. Let’s not forget the club identified players like Guendouzi and Torreira over the summer, and turned Holding into a solid looking defender before his injury, so to say we’re short-term thinkers isn’t accurate.
Yeah the thing is last Jan we reshuffled to put together this attack even while basically balancing our books (despite Ozil’s new deal) which was great. Then we let go some more players (Santi, Jack, Per) and added most of what we needed, a GK, defenders and midfielders. And I thought we were ready to go.
Since then though we’ve seemed disjointed and the whole Sven leaving thing explains it. We appear to not have a long term plan because we seem to be playing at cross purposes. Not playing Ozil and Ramsey basically destroys the effectiveness of the attack we built last year.
I then thought this would mean a longer rebuild and project youth 2. But instead of promoting youngsters or buying young, we’re going with experience again, for a good but not great player at pretty big wages (all rumoured of course) This makes no sense to me.
When Emery was hired Gazidis said there were 4 criteria. Attacking play, not reliant solely on the transfer market, commitment to playing youth, and meets Arsenal values. So far, Emery hasn’t done enough to convince me he meets any of these. Of course, Gazidis went, Sven is leaving and Raul, the guy who apparently pushed for Emery, is now king. I just hope there is a coherent, sensible plan and this isn’t just panic to get top 4 and save their behinds.
I’m never going to complain about the team adding quality to the squad. Plan or no plan, it gets us closer to where we want to be in the table. Also, just think for a minute: Arsenal cannot afford to go full on project youth. We don’t have 2-3 seasons to wait around for some of them to bloom. The club gains nothing by letting itself languish in the hinterlands. For me, it’s simple. You buy quality, when and how you can get it. It sounds like Perisic wants to play for us and he would improve the squad, there is little doubt about that.
This is also a good point.
I think I’m just annoyed at us not making the most of the players we have, giving away Ramsey for free, devaluing Ozil, and then pleading poverty.
Sven was supposed to be the GM of sorts. Taking care of the strategic path of squad building. And till the summer I was happy with what we were doing. Since then, I don’t know what we’re doing and I worry that no one’s looking at the larger picture at all.
Basically Doc, I need something to get behind, and though ultimately it would suffice, the style of football isn’t doing it for me. You’re right though. In and of itself, signing Perisic is not a negative.
Reiss Nelson was reported to have a back injury.
http://dailycannon.com/2019/01/hoffenheim-confirm-reiss-nelson-has-suffered-back-injury/
I have an abiding memory of a very young and much less bald Perisic thwacking in a long range goal against us for Dortmund. Speaking of whom, the link makes a lot more sense when you consider that Mislintat would be intimately familiar with his game, and, most likely, his agent too.
When I watched him in the World Cup, Perisic struck me as the most dynamic player on that Croatia team, one of the few with genuine athleticism. He’s definitely a grafter and fits with Emery in that sense, and I’d like to add that I recall that he has an insanely powerful left peg, a bit like Lukas Podolski albeit not as accurate. Still, he ticks a lot of boxes for Emery ball: hard worker out wide, doesn’t need the ball to be effective, dangerous from anywhere in the box, scores and assists. I agree that age is the biggest down side here but that’s only a factor if this signing will leave the team short of funds for other needed areas, and I am not qualified to comment on that. Generally speaking, I don’t mind a big investment in the wide positions because that’s where I think we have the biggest need right now given how Emery wants the team to play and the present options in that department which are either ineffective or out of place.
Here’s that goal against us in 2012
7 years ago…
the world cup was last summer – he was probably Croatia’s 3rd best player. I understand the financial issues, but he is a good player who would help us in the short run.
I think you said something similar on Twitter. Help us to do what, exactly? Maybe he can help us win the Europa League but Arsenal’s problems are in defense and specifically in ball retention. He is fast, he has a nose for creating chances, but he is not good with the ball in Serie A where teams are given plenty of time on the ball. He’s also not a big tackler or much in terms of obvious defensive work. So, while I tend to agree that offense is the best defense, he doesn’t really help in the specific places that Arsenal most need help. This is a truly perplexing signing, if it happens. Which according to some reports we haven’t even made an offer. So, I’m skeptical.
I know, it’s crazy. I still remember it like it wasn’t that long ago. I was really annoyed by that goal at the time!
(This wasn’t meant as a “look how great he is” moment, more as a “remember this??” moment)
While I understand the general frustration behind not buying a shiny new 23 year old who will have resale value, I am fine with this signing. If the goal in the short term is to win the Europa league, he has the quality to get the job done. Besides, I think we need experience on the wings and guys like Iwobi needs to learn how to play the final ball/create/score and Perisic will help in that regards. We will free up Ramsey’s wages (and possibly Ozil’s as well) which should let us strengthen over the summer too. I find it hilarious when people mention Reiss Nelson like he is second coming of Pires. Very decent players (and experienced) have come from the Bundesliga to the Premier League and struggled – Sahin, Schurrle, Kagawa were all considered good at some point). Nagelsmann has even publicly stated that Nelson is a defensive liability… or something to that effect. I fear people’s expectations of Nelson are a bit unrealistic. If Perisic comes, we can focus on getting a LB, a CB (hopefully to replace Mustafi) and a creative MFer. Maybe even a proper backup for Bellerin if we play our cards right.
If we end up spending more on perisic than it would have cost to keep ramsey I may need some form of therapy
And what do you think this is?
Group therapy for frustrated Arsenal fans courtesy of 7am.
Welcome 🙂
Heh, thanks for the welcome! As far as padded cells go, this is quite nice…
NO CLUB FOR OLD MEN!!
I’ll get me coat…
Perisic is a good player, but I can’t imaging Inter letting him go unless he’s already lost a step, and his recent numbers seem to back that up. Wenger was the master of letting players go at the right time, looks like Arsenal is becoming one of the clubs that buys them.
Arsenal’s average age with Leno in goal is OK, and lower than some of the other top 6 teams. But the older players are concentrated in attack. I dunno, if it happens then fine but it just feels like a weird priority to me.
If Emery was an architect, at the moment I feel like he would come into my house and suggest I change the kitchen into a bedroom, put the living room in the garden, knock through two bedrooms into one and put the kitchen in the attic, so I end up a few grand poorer, with exactly the same house except now it’s non-functional and I don’t have a garden any more. But the kitchen does have nice views over the living room.
Lol. I’m kind of enjoying being the Eeyore for a change, I might keep it up.
By the way, for clarity, I don’t despise Iwobi and never have. He caught a lot of flak for the Man U performance due to the number of times he held onto the ball and dribbled up a blind alley. But I don’t blame him, he showed willing at least. He can’t be expected to carry the whole team forwards, every single attack, on his own, without his movement getting predictable.
Lol. I know right. This is new territory. Love the architect analogy.
I disagree with the idea of current dysfunction attributed to Emery. Never forget we lost to Ostersunds FK in the Europa last season and that is the definition of poo achieving multi-dimensional dysfunctional status.
Our West ham loss compared to our Ostersunds loss, what do you make of the teams on the day?
Our loss to ManUtd in the UCLin 2009 at the q/finals and the 4th round F.A. cup loss, can you analyze the weakness in both teams, and not realize we are trying to break from a destructive addiction to normalcy.
The FA cup loss showed more than ever that we are going to suffer from having error prone personnel mucking things up in high-pressure situations than organizational disorder, as most people claim.
Get rid of Mustafi et al, and their mistakes, which incidentally influences team psychology and then watch the fight and mentality of a top club flourish.
I agree with you. Though it may not be as simple as just selling Mustafi and a couple more players, getting rid of some of the most error prone players can only help – as long as we don’t replace them with more error prone players of course!