Arsenal v. Chelsea: #Narrative

56 comments

1. Last time I took real time off from the Arsenal was Wenger’s 1000th game, the 6-0 loss to Mourinho’s Chelsea. It was as low a point as I have ever experienced as a supporter.

   Talk about a sports opera?

   I don’t think we’ll lose 6-0 to Sarri’s Chelsea but I know we won’t win 6-0 either or win at all. Either way, I don’t feel tomorrow as a sports opera as much as I do a likely anti-climatic let down to the 6th place finish I’ve predicted.

   That, and the the fact that it’s going to be so fu*King cold here (+5 F / -15 C) means itay be the right time to hibernate until spring.

2. Last time I took real time off from the Arsenal was Wenger’s 1000th game, the 6-0 loss to Mourinho’s Chelsea. It was as low a point as I have ever experienced as a supporter.

   Talk about a sports opera?

   I don’t think we’ll lose 6-0 to Sarri’s Chelsea but I know we won’t win 6-0 either or win at all. Either way, I don’t feel tomorrow as a sports opera as much as I do a likely anti-climatic let down to the 6th place finish I’ve predicted.

   That, and the the fact that it’s going to be so fu*kng cold here (+4 F / -17 C) means it may be the right time to hibernate until spring.

3. double post? Double drama? Apologies.

4. “I care about the Arsenal but I don’t care if we finish 4th or 6th. The gap in money between the Europa League and Champions League isn’t that great and besides which it looks like Arsenal are going to finish 6th more every day. ”
   Disagree.
   There’s a huge gap in prize money between the Europa League and the Champions League. Any club gets at least €15 million just for being in the group phase of the UCL, and at least €25 million for reaching the last 16. And if you reach the semis, you can get between €60-83 million, and between €81-110 million for reaching the final (https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/General/02/57/82/51/2578251_DOWNLOAD.pdf). Also, https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/OfficialDocument/uefaorg/Finance/02/54/02/87/2540287_DOWNLOAD.pdf. As you can see, MU only got €44 million for winning the Europa League in 2017, and Ajax, the runner-up, got €16 million, which is even less than what some clubs earned for an elimination in the group stage of the UCL.
   So it makes a difference, first because you can finance transfers with that kind of money (Liverpool boosted their transfer funds with their UCL runner-up finish), and second because top players want to play in the Champions League (they don’t care about the Europa League).

   1. It does make a difference, but I think Tim is saying it won’t be the difference between another top 4 scrap and a title race next season. It would help the club but it’s not worth the constant fuss and anxiety.

   2. I don’t completely disagree with you here. I would only say that you’re using old numbers, the gap between EL and CL is much closer, and that because we have a higher chance of going deeper into the EL than the CL, it’s pretty much a wash for a club like Arsenal. In fact, it can be more profitable to go further in the EL than most teams get in the CL.

      For example, when Arsenal got dumped out of the EL against Atleti in Wenger’s final season they pocketed €40m. Meanwhile United getting dumped in the CL round of 16 earned them only €37m! The ceiling is much higher in the CL: United winning the EL was “only” €44m and Liverpool getting to the final was €82m. But that would take an incredible amount of luck for this squad.

      On the flip side, getting dumped out of the Champions League campaign in the Group stage, which is very possible with this team, would see extremely meager returns.

      So, that’s a more detailed explanation of why I don’t think it matters. I also don’t think it helps Arsenal’s recruitment at the moment. You know what would help? A manager with a clear vision for the way forward.

      1. “I would only say that you’re using old numbers, the gap between EL and CL is much closer.”
         What do you mean? I showed you the UEFA payments for the last 2 seasons (2016-17 and 2017-18). That’s the most recent you can get.
         “we have a higher chance of going deeper into the EL than the CL, it’s pretty much a wash for a club like Arsenal. In fact, it can be more profitable to go further in the EL than most teams get in the CL. ”
         Yes, the Gunners have a better chance of going deeper in the Europa League than in the Champions League, but the figures show there’s no comparison between the prize money. Arsenal got €64 million in the 2016-17 season when they got knocked out by Bayern in the last 16 of the Champions League, that’s much more than the €38 million they got for last season’s semifinal spot in the Europa League (https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/General/02/57/82/58/2578258_DOWNLOAD.pdf).
         “The ceiling is much higher in the CL: United winning the EL was “only” €44m and Liverpool getting to the final was €82m. ”
         I would add the threshold is much higher in the CL and the ceiling much lower in the Europa League. Last season, Atletico Madrid only got €16 million for winning the Europa League (excluding CL money from the group stage) and Marseille only got €23 million for reaching the final.
         “I also don’t think it helps Arsenal’s recruitment at the moment.”
         On the contrary, it’s even more important now that Kroenke has full control of the club ans is trying to cut costs, including the transfer kitty. Also, don’t forget the impact on Matchday revenue: CL tickets cost more than EL tickets and a sellout is more likely with a CL game than with a EL game. And again, it’s easier to keep and attract top players with CL football. Plus the sponsors, they get more prestigious exposure in the CL than in the EL.
         “You know what would help? A manager with a clear vision for the way forward.”
         Agree. But this argument doesn’t nullify the other arguments.

5. Pretty sure Emery will go back to 4231 for this game

   Leno
   Bellerin/Mustafi/Sokratis/Monreal
   Xhaka/Torreira
   Ramsey/Ozil/Iwobi
   Aubameyang

   Then he can use Guendouzi, Lacazette and Kolasinac as impact subs. If benches Ozil for this game I won’t know what to say, I guess he’d rather sacrifice results for player-manager politics.

6. Tim, I’m totally feeling your cynical sports ambivalence. If Arsenal win or lose tomorrow, the world will keep turning, and they’ll turn up for their next game as they always do. I’ll still watch and be nervous because that’s what makes it fun! Then I’ll tune in to my Celtics and Patriots melodramas.

   “There has always been a Baggins living under the tree in bag end, and there always will be.”

   1. The Pats will run into a buzzsaw down in K.C. Doc. Big blowout, Chiefs by +17.

      And Brees and my Saints will do in that other KSE team, 28-17.

      You heard it here first.

      1. WhoDat!! I like Saints myself. Ever been to Nawlins 1Nil?

         1. As as musician, I love the Big Easy, specially New Orleans. Haven’t been in a long while but used to go about once a year. Even saw Archie Manning play in the old Superdome once. What a great qb! What a lousy team (then)!

            We’re gonna do it tomorrow!

      2. I feel like that first series will be crucial. If they can establish the run and get a few first downs, the crowd will settle down and a bit of doubt will creep in. That mental edge is huge for the Patriots because they do not have the better team in this game. If they can control the clock like they did against the chargers, I think they will win in a close game. They’ve been bad on the road this year but I think that was mostly just down to the other team wanting it more. I don’t think that’ll be the case in this game. If the Chiefs defense plays out of its mind and stuffs the run, yes, they’ll win big, but I back the Patriots to find ways to advance the ball against what hasn’t been a very good defense all season.

   2. I havent been following the NBA this season. I started to and then NBA TV was being difficult so I cancelled and have since lost track of what’s been happening. What’s with this Kyrie leaving thing?

      And I like you man, and you have to admire the Patriots, but boo…. stop winning already. No fun #Narrative

      I must be in the minority of Arsenal fans that want the Rams to win because of the KSE connection. I mean, why not? Maybe we even get some kind of crossover marketing benefits from that.

      I see a lot of people attacking Kroenke for the Rams doing well while Arsenal aren’t. Which is weird because for years we were told his other teams not doing well shows we’ll never do well. I guess whatever happens Kroenke is bad #Narrative.

      1. I completely agree with your last point. My take is more that KSE cares more about its NFL franchise than Arsenal and although it irks me, I also get it. They own these teams and they are American, so they are focusing on the home front first. Meanwhile, Arsenal will be a golden goose for them as long as they all shall live.

         PS, Kyrie is not leaving. He already said he was going to commit to Boston 😀

         PPS, I totally understand the Patriots hate. It’s cool, I don’t judge people for it. I would feel the same way. It’s weirdly fun to be on the other side of it.

         1. I don’t follow the NFL anywhere near enough to hate the Patriots. I cheered when the Eagles won especially the play they won it with. I laughed at Falcons when they threw away that lead and it really was a game where the Pats earned my respect. It’s mostly in fun because I want to see other teams and learn more about them (and see if any of them feels like I team I’d like to follow)

            For that matter, I also want a team in the NBA these days. I used to love the MJ Bulls, then Mavs of Nash and Dirk. Enjoyed the rise of the Warriors. I wanted the C’s to win last season (unlikely as it was) But I’m yet to find a connection with any team. Maybe Spurs (ironic) but they are a little boring. Especially now that the big 3 have all left.

            1. Bill Simmons has a michelin star rating style appraisal of who is fun to watch in the NBA these days over on the Ringer. Check it out. NBA trade value column.

7. Tim will continue bossing articles #narrative

8. I was surprised Trump stood to make only 100m from that deal tbh.
   Seems like a lot gargling and di#k su#king on Trump’s part for a measly 100m, especially when he could just get another Russian oligarch to overpay 50 m on one of his properties the way Oleg Deripaska did in the Palm Beach deal.

   Arsenal need to get a result tomorrow but a win would be better , not for the league position’s sake but rather for the confidence’s sake.
   We aren’t making top four either way but beating Chelsea, one of the favorites for the EL title, would give the players some confidence going forward that we can get the better of them over two legs when sooner or later we bump into them.

9. Yeah, we’re finishing 6th. We called it correctly around this time last year, and I think we can call it correctly this time around as well. That 22-game unbeaten run was welcome, but ultimately it raised expectations beyond what this squad is capable of. We’re right where we ought to be, all things considered.

   In more important news, I went to my local greasy spoon for lunch today and ordered an American cheeseburger! It was delicious! I feel gross right now, and will need to skip dinner, but it was worth every bite.

   1. What made it an “American” cheeseburger as opposed to a regular cheeseburger? Was it an item recently featured in the White House? If so, shouldn’t you properly call it a “hamderger”

      I won’t be able to hibernate over the next few days of bone crushing cold here until I know…

10. What made it an “American” cheeseburger as opposed to a regular cheeseburger?

    ===

    I ate it in America. Also, it was paid for by me.

    1. Works for me. Tonight I too made American burgers (wild caught salmon from Alaska) for the family.

       But from the taste I think they were really B.C. salmon that went to work in Juneau but overstayed thier visas like too many Canadians.

11. #narrative – That’s why I can’t even watch arsenal play with the commentary on any more.

12. Speaking to your point Tim about the significance of the Chelsea game, at no point in this season have Arsenal looked like one of the best 4 teams in the Premier League. So a win or even a draw (just like the Totenham and Liverpool games) will feel like an achievement.

    1. *over-achievement.

13. Win, lose, CL, EL, out of Europe. None of it seems to matter too much to me right now. Like I still watch the games, and hope we win every game.

    But I have no idea what I’m cheering for. Not in terms of the style of play, and not in terms of the vision and values of the club. And that just means I end up cheering with my heart not really in it. Which is no fun. That’s my #narrative.

    1. This I understand…the love is not yet gone but it feels different and not in a good way…

    2. That’s a neat summary of how I feel as well, Shard. I think at the end of the day I am just cheering for Arsenal. It gets too complicated beyond that. I’ve decided it’s more fun to be a simple minded sports fan.

14. for me, mesut starts today’s game. the implication derived from the pre-match press conference is that mesut didn’t train well and often blamed it on injury, hence the reason emery didn’t play him. however, emery may have gotten his point across that says to mesut, “if you want to play, you have to prove your fitness in training”, which is something ozil’s typically gotten away with under wenger and others.

    is there any truth to what i just said? probably not. seriously, i just made it up. it’s based on what i read in the press conference on thursday. we’ll see.

15. What’s with all the handwringing, gooners? Supporting your sports team isn’t an intellectual exercise, or like hitting a light switch. Yeah, be clear-eyed about is flaws, but man, stop being such Debbie Downers, enjoy the game, and beetch, moan and yell at the TV to your heart’s content. Or go nuts over a great play. It’s really that simple, this sports supporter thing. Like Shard I don’t feel comfortable with the Arsenal that Kroenke is creating. It’s not the Arsenal I started supporting a quarter of a century ago. But for 2 hours, when they’re kicking a ball, I don’t really care.

    Arsenal to win, create a false dawn, and settle back into comparative ordinariness. Someone said it… In all honesty, we don’t look like one of the best 4 teams in the country. If we get top 4, it’d be larceny, and Emery would be entitled to laugh his a__ off. Our team is ordinary. Stellar attacking players, including Ozil and Ramsey, a few gems such as Bellerin and Torreira, supplemented by a boatload of
    the unremarkable. Granit Xhaka plays nearly every game for us. Think about that.

    Chelsea have problems too. They’ve stuttered big time, and are beatable.

16. 4 at the back, or is Xhaka playing at CB/LB? I hope it’s the former. No Ozil still but at least Ramsey’s there. Hopefully we play with the same fire and tempo we had against Spurs.

    1. Mesut is on the bench, which counts as progress, I suppose.

       Arsenal of late have played well against Chelsea, and Ozil plays well against Chelsea. I expect — nay hope — that he’s involved at some point.

    2. These teams are pretty closely matched. That Kovacic-Jorginho-Kante midfield gave us fits in the second half against them in the first game. It’ll be interesting how Emery adjusts to that. Sarri was able to mostly fix the damage being done by Bellerin-Mkhitaryan down the Chelsea left in that first half and in the second half we didn’t get much of a look on their goal. Also, Pedro-Hazard-Willian is kind of scary with Xhaka and Koscielny in the center. Pressing the midfield will be crucial, otherwise those three will find space behind the trademark high line and kill us. Michael Cox said over on the .com that Chelsea look to invite that press before using Luiz to knock diagonals over the top.

       It looks like Emery is matching them in a 4-3-3 of our own. The difference between the squads right now for my money is Eden Hazard. We don’t have anyone who can conjure goals or win free kicks and penalties like he does for Chelsea. He looks like the best player in the PL again after taking a year off in 2017/18 as he seems to do about every other season.

    3. The game could hinge on set pieces. Chelsea are as inventive at them as we are clueless at defending them.

       Chelsea are beatable, but we really need to be switched on at those.

       Game on!

17. TV is showing the different formations as I’m writing this post. Ozil on the bench!!! Emery is playing hard ball here. No matter the result of this match, I’m not confident about the Arsenal for the rest of the season.

18. Halftime.

    Was thinking round 37 minutes, deja vu — we’re dominating them and lead by only a goal — when Koscielny, who’s been excellent scores.

    Their clever coach is going to adjust for sure, but we’re winning in the midfield, where Ramsey has been phenomenal. I’d love to see his distance covered stats for the first half. He’s also, defensively, nullified Jorginho. Credit to Emery for that tactical call.

    We’re also bringing a lot of energy all over the field, and have rediscovered something resembling our pressing game from earlier in the season.

    We look a much better side with Bellerin in it, although (small quibble) his narrow defending against Alonso on Chelsea’s left flank worries me a bit. He seems unsure of his positioning, and whether to come out and close down or hug the box and defend.

    They missed a trick not starting Giroud, opting to go for small and speedy. We’re not great in the air. Giroud would trouble us. Small and speedy would perhaps have troubled the nervy Mustafi, but this CB pairing is more composed.

19. “Ramsey has been phenomenal. I’d love to see his distance covered stats for the first half. He’s also, defensively, nullified Jorginho.”

    Can you imagine how good he could’ve been had he given a 100% instead of saving himself for Juve. 😉

    1. Actually, he’s one torn ligament or one broken ankle away from f****** it all up. And David Luiz nearly obliged.

       1. Moving the goal post of that argument aren’t you.
          You said it was “duh” level obvious he wasn’t gonna bust the gut for Arsenal and I said he would prove you wrong.

          He did it in his first start.

          1. No, I have not. You just have comprehension issues, Tom 😀

             1. So I keep being told by my wife.

             2. Tom, I’m so glad it’s not just me! 😂

20. Proud of the team! This was probably our best total performance of the year, and I include the Tottenham game because we let them back into that one.

    First half we played with tons of energy and harassed them from the first whistle, carried by far the better of the play and despite a few creaks at the back, 2-0 was not flattering from this view. The midfielders and forwards put in outstanding effort and were rewarded with a handsome lead. Second half, we let them have the ball and packed the center. I haven’t really seen Arsenal play that way with any degree of success before and there were a few nervous moments but for the most part it was effective. I don’t think they had a shot on goal all game.

    The man of the match today was quite clearly LAURENT KOSCIELNY who made the difference at both ends today. He deserved a goal with his bullet header if not for Kepa’s saving face, and got one with an improbable (get, that, dirt) off the shoulder. At the other end though he showed what we’ve been missing with expert positional CB play against multiple types of threats and cool, effective passing in tight positions. I really like the thought of this Koscielny partnering Sokratis and if they keep clicking and stay healthy, CB could go from a weakness to a strength for this team.

    Hector Bellerin probably did his ACL and that is a crushing loss for this team in an offensive sense. I would think a RB now goes from a need to a priority in the transfer window.

21. So Arsenal are 3 points below Chelsea who, if you listened to some Arsenal fans, under Sari, are playing with purpose and identity . Something Arsenal haven’t done all season.

    Maybe I’ve missed the trick to recognize that purpose and identity Sari has been praised for so much but by my reckoning, if it weren’t for the unlucky loss at the Bridge Arsenal would’ve done the double and be tied in the table with them.
    # narrative

    1. Everyone’s better than you after you’ve just lost to West Ham. #Narrative

       We had bags of identity under Wenger but as I recall people were wanting more tactical flexibility. Now we have tactical flexibility and people are bemoaning a loss of identity. #Narrative

22. How ya like us now, you bunch of fair-weather Debbie Downers 🙂

    Repeat… Chelsea are (1) beatable (2) a team that we have played well against of late.

    Still, we should take Kipling’s advice on this one. This does not make us as good as some giddy gooners would claim, or as bad as others would. We are capable of performances like that, even when Auba leaves his shooting boots in the locker room.

    We are not one of the four best teams in the country, but if other teams play the top 6 like Palace did Liverpool today, or Wolves did City over Christmas, we can perform an act of larceny. Might not, mind, but can. Plenty of football and plot twists left.

    Koscielny was immense. A leader at both ends of the pitch. The defence looks so much better with composed players. Mustafi has his attributes and sometimes has good performances that go unnoticed, but generally he is so positionally indisciplined and panicky.

    Team was up for this, and energy was high. Even Auba made a number of critical defensive tackles. Ramsey was terrific until replaced (at a time we couldn’t keep the ball).

    Hector’s injury has ACL written all over it, and his season is probably over. Please let me be wrong. Some cuntish play from Luiz, Barkley and Alonso (a perennially dirty so and so) that were dark orange offences.

    Guendouzi’s still learning but he always plays with heart, bravery and authority. Torreira has tailed off for while now, and was iffy today. Taylor gave him noting for clear fouls. Xhaka was Xhaka. A hug on Kante as he ran by him early in the game might have got him a caution from another ref on another day.

    Close, close Top 4 race. Squeaky bum time, as Fergie used to say.

    Oh and I loved hearing the crowd sing Giroud’s name, and him giving the love and appreciation right back.

    All in all, a satisfying day.

23. Hey, Tim, I’m not on Twitter or Facebook so I’ll just throw my two cents in on here re your Covington tweet.

    It’s been my personal experience that anyone who wears a MAGA hat is a fu#king idiot.

    True story.
    I just about got back from an all inclusive vacation in one of the adults only resorts in Riviera Maya.
    There was a guest sporting his MAGA hat ( I $hit you not), while ordering his food pool and beachside.
    I said to my wife there was either the bravest or the dumbest Trump supporter alive.

    1. Tom, you’re not wrong about the striking connection between MAGA hats and people who have zero decency:

       https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46935701

24. Almost the perfect game, but that Bellerin injury is going to cost us. We don’t have a single good RB in the squad to replace him. Ugh. Just when I was looking forward to us going to a 4 at the back with the outstanding Koscielny partnering Sokratis. I betcha any money this injury means we go back to the dreaded 3 at the back with that clown Mustafi.

    1. Hang on Bun, Mustafi cost 35m pounds!

       He might be a clown, but he’s the very finest clown money can buy.

       1. Pennywise Poundfoolish

25. Chambers DM for Fulham. Hmmm….

    A more clinical Babel would have put this tie out of sight.

    Vertonghen yanks Mitrovic to the ground in the Spurs box in full view ref Pawson; nothing. Contrast our soft pens against Liverpool. EPL officiating is maddeningly inconsistent.

    1. I see this Chambo idea all over twitter: he’s awful on the team that allowed the most goals in Premier League history.

       1. He certainly didnt play well yesterday.

26. I am reading this now and you can’t be more right Tim!

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