Emery takes the nuclear option
Remember the other day when I said that I would look at home and away form? And how last season it was just the away form that was truly worrying? Of course, I did that and once again Arsenal have a top four home team and mid-to-bottom-table away team.
I don’t like the way I wrote that article above so, I revamped the stats to show what I was talking about. Here is a comparison of Arsenal’s away form last season and this season:
| Stat | 2017/18 | 2018/19 |
| Matches | 19 | 11 |
| Goals for per | 1.1 | 2 |
| Goals against per | 1.6 | 2 |
| Points per | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| NPxG per | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| NPxGa per | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Expected PTS | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Ok, so, we are scoring more. That’s good. We are also winning more. Again, that’s good. But we are conceding more, a lot more. So much more that we are a bottom of the table team, 16th, in goals allowed. We have conceded 22 goals in 11 away matches. Now, obviously 8 of those came in two matches (5 against Liverpoo and 3 at Southampton) but even if you take those matches out (which you shouldn’t) Arsenal are back to last season’s 1.6 goals against per contest in away games. Also, if you take away the 8 defensive goals, maybe you should adjust the offense for the 8 away goals against Cardiff and Fulham – which puts Arsenal’s offense at 1.3 goals per away game, a much smaller improvement over last season.
At best you could say that this is a mixed bag in terms of improvement – the underlying numbers look basically the same – and at worst it shows a team that is severely lacking in confidence. After all, you don’t concede 22 goals in 11 matches on the road if you’re riding high. It’s this lack of confidence that has fans, and I think players worried, at the moment.
And I can’t help but think that Emery’s constant tinkering with lineups, halftime subs, and dropping Ozil “for tactical reasons” has shook this Arsenal team a bit. It certainly has the Arsenal fanbase asking questions.
Above is his response when asked about why Özil wasn’t even on the bench for the match against Wham on Saturday. It’s a response that makes very clear that Unai Emery dropped Özil, not for health, fitness, or emotional distress (because he lost a , but for tactical reasons. Unai decided that he didn’t need Özil in an away game where Arsenal created an xG of just 0.69 (according to Understat, mine is 0.75).
I agree with Unai that he has the freedom to drop anyone he wants for any reason. But if you remember back to January 2013, Arsenal supporters were calling for Thomas Vermaelen, then captain, to be dropped and I cautioned that it was the “nuclear” option. Meaning that dropping Vermaelen would also drop a bomb in the dressing room.
If it works, you’re fine. In the case of Vermaelen, it was the right call by Wenger. Koscielny and Mertesacker went on to form a great partnership and “The Verminator” was sold to Barcelona in what was an incredible piece of business.
But what if it doesn’t work? That’s where we are right now with Emery and Özil, in the “what if” phase. Early signs indicate that it’s not working and that things may be collapsing under the stress.
I banged up the xG for and against in away games with and without Özil. I counted any match that he played any minutes in as “with” and any match where he played 0 minutes as without. Expected goals for is on the left, xGa is on the right.
| w | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| w/o | 1.2 | 1.4 |
With Ozil, Arsenal are nearly half a goal better per away game (0.4) and basically the exact same on defense. So, when I see Emery say “no one player makes the difference” I understand that’s his footballing philosophy but frankly I completely disagree.
I know Emery has won the Europa League and as a coach who studies the opposition I suspect that he knows that star players do two things: 1) they provide you with moments of individual brilliance and 2) they make the game easier for everyone else around them by being the focal point of the opposition defense. In fact, the more talent you have, the more star players you have on a team, the more difficult it is to just sit back and defend or man-mark a player out of the game. So, the only reason why he’s saying this nonce is because he needs to cover himself for whatever is going on between him, the club, the players, and Özil.
And there’s the real problem: dropping Özil will reverberate throughout the team. The players will be acutely aware of how difficult the games are without Ozil and unless Ozil is a pariah among his teammates (like Alexis was) they will want him on the pitch. Typically, if that’s the case, the team plays better and the results and xG indicate that we are getting worse. So I’d be surprised if the team wants Özil out.
We don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes. Perhaps the players are sick of Özil getting special treatment – he was reportedly Wenger’s pet. If that’s the case then they might support Emery dropping him like this. But if the players want him on the pitch, and this is personal between Unai and Özil – which is the sense I get from watching Emery’s face when he’s asked about Özil and the fact that the team are looking bereft of confidence – then I fear this could backfire badly for the new Arsenal boss.
Some scary, sh*t, dude. I think we should shut down Arsenal until Emery gets his money for The Wall (of defense).
The eyes and the stats agree, we are better with Özil on the pitch. Emery’s stubbornness on this point is baffling.
As in all team sports, Arsenal need a leader on the pitch. The kind of character we’ve not had for several years now. Ozil is not and was never going to be That Guy. We need to sort out his contract as best we can and move on from him. Period.
There is more than one type of leader in a football. I think it is unfair to not call Ozil a leader just because he doesn’t fit the stereotype of a traditional leader. Players like Iniesta, Yoann Gorcuff (Bordeaux) and David Silva are not traditional leaders, but they are technical leaders. Santi was ours, and now Ozil is. Intensity shouldn’t be the end all, be all of football. We also need players who can lead the team by controlling the tempo of a game, by being safe on the ball and decision making on the pitch.
So he ,ight not be a traditional leader, but he is the technical leader of this team. Watch all our big game wins, and you will see his influence and leadership in game management.
That win against Tottenham feels like years ago now. Tim, didn’t you predict that we’d finish 10th this season? Or was that last season? Well, we’re certainly playing like a mid-table team!
I have a feeling Ozil will be gone by January 31st.
I doubt we’ll see a player of his quality again at Arsenal anytime soon if Ozil leaves, so I’d be disappointed if he left. It would be better than not even seeing him in the squad though.
I think Emery’s best bet is to let the fans turn on Ozil with his performances on the pitch. When you completely leave him out of the squad, the fans we always wonder what could’ve been. I’m my opinion Ozil will rarely cost you a goal, but he may create one(unlike Xhaka, who gets a free pass for some reason), so it’s worth the risk.
Emery’s constant tinkering has to stop as well. Every game is a new formation and lineup of Emery’s own making. The players have to be able to form partnerships where they know what to expect from others around him.
Unless of course there’s a master plan going unseen by us all – sell to United or PSG or Barca or Madrid? Basically to any team with enough talent elsewhere on the park to be able to accommodate a “luxury player” like him, and with “cast offs” good enough to trade in return?
I say this in hope rather than belief. Otherwise it’s undoubtedly an unhealthy situation. Without either him or Rambo or Mikhi, we look fairly uninspiring, especially when everyone has clocked our favourite dragback tactic.
As he’s never been my favourite player, despite his obvious skill, I’m in the “Unai knows” camp for now.
If by “sell” you mean “let him go to a rival so that we don’t have to pay his salary” I guess that’s an option. I don’t see many teams paying Arsenal a transfer fee in addition to his £18m annual salary.
I have posted my discontent on le Grove, so I might as well do so here. Õzil might not play defence but he can unlock opposition defenses, it is what we need. I would rather have Õzil on the pitch with Elneny and Maitland Niles behind, rather than this Xhaka can’t Granit dude. I mean why not play Maitland Niles and Elneny instead of Xhaka especially with the return of Bellerin and Monreal?
I know Emery shares the same birth date with me, but his policies won’t work, if he says Õzil can’t make a difference, then that’s bordering on delusion, because Õzil does make a difference and his ability could have added something special yesterday.
We do need to sell a lot of players who can’t perform at the right level.
Persistence with Xhaka despite his obvious flaws, flirting with young players but continuing with the dreary players, it only makes sense if we are putting Xhaka, Mustafi and Kolasinac in the shop window so we can replace them.
I completely agree with this.
After today’s match between ManU and Sp*rs, Paul Pobga is quoted as saying “It was really difficult….with the tactics we used to play. I like to play more attacking, pressing and play high. I miss the lucidity when I had to defend. Defending is not my best attribute. I think my position [today] is where I feel most comfortable.”
Of course Pogba and Ozil are different kinds of players, and there are whole lot of differences between the situations at Arsenal and ManU right now, but I can’t help feeling this is the crux of the matter. Emery has to find a way for the team to play with Ozil, and minimise his defensive weaknesses while exploiting his undoubted offensive talents. Freezing him out has not helped to improve us defensively, and has hurt us offensively.
Over a run of matches, a team with Ozil, Auba and Laca playing regularly should redeem itself. Emery should focus on solving our defensive frailties instead of picking a fight with the offensive (!) talent.
This is a great position to take.
The only question I have is if somehow, Emery believes Özil prevents him from employing his preferred defensive philosophy or if he’s asked Özil to play in a certain manner to accommodate said philosophy and Özil has refused.
Ozil has never seemed like the kind of player to strike or down tools to me. He’s pretty much a model professional.
What I mean is I think if he was asked to defend more he’d give it a go for the team.
So then the follow-on is this: what problem could Emery possibly have with Özil, if not related to instruction?
I agree. But I think it will need compromise with Ozil, whereby he will demand that he be given some freedom to be the player he is. To play the sort of football he enjoys.
I just watched the goals from the Leicester game, and the 2nd Auba goal with the Ozil stepover and layoff, when he’s celebrating it seems like he truly enjoyed how wonderful that goal was above the importance of it in the game itself.
It seems Emery is unwilling to compromise though. He’s pushing the system down everyone’s throats. They’d either learn to like it or shove it. Ozil is no troublemaker but he’s no meek, shrinking violet either. Nor, especially, is Ramsey. Is it a coincidence that two guys who contribute so much to our attack from midfield, and have standing at the club, are being pushed out? Maybe not.
I’m not sure what exactly Emery is doing. Yes, Ozil is a poor defender, but as the numbers show, icing him out has not improved our defense, while significantly reducing our creativity and attacking output. And it’s not as though Ozil is the only player who struggles defending. Xhaka is a walking mistake and he and his mistakes walk into the team week in and week out. Ozil may have been babied a bit by Wenger, but by all accounts he’s fairly well liked by his teammates, it’s not as though he’s cancerous like Alexis, or has a god complex like neymar. He’s responded to Emery shutting him out and seemingly intentionally humiliating him as professionally as one could expect, trying to stay positive, training hard. This feels like Emery just personally dislikes him, and it’s hurting the team. It’s definitely not a good look for Emery right now.
NYC and Josh, Im a bit surprised that youre persisting with that line of argument on contracts. Look, guys… you’re not entitled to your own facts. The reporting on the issue is pretty definitive, as was Sanllehi’s defence of the decision, which makes clear that the club knowingly broke an agreement, because (a) they could at that stage (b) it was expedient. Any contract lawyer would tell you that the most uncertain time is the period between negotiated settlement and final signing. Why are you trying to inject supposition into a case in which the facts have been clearly stated by ALL PARTIES?
A personal example…
For a role I’ve had in the past, an employer sent me provisional terms and the HR lead scheduled a phone convo to finalise/agree the terms of it. I told them I wanted them to bump it by 20% based on market rate, and increase my leave allowance from 4 weeks to 5. They came back with an offer to up by about 12%, and a yes on 5 weeks’ leave. I took it, and the contract arrived by email attachment about 2 days later.
That’s how contract negotiations work.
You do not need to invent scenarios/suppositions, just because it supports an argument you are trying to make. You don’t know that. We do, however, know the facts of this case, because, if youve been following this story closely, all parties agree on how this went down. Terms of employment had been agreed (a contract, loosely speaking), but it was withdrawn before it could be signed, or premamably, even presented.
claude, look. i don’t know what happened with the ramsey deal. maybe what you’ve said is right. maybe the crap i made up is right. maybe there’s more to it than either of us knows. i’ll defer to your opinion because you’ve, clearly, followed this much closer than i have; i haven’t followed it at all. the only thing i know is i’ve heard that £180k a week since the spring. like you’ve alluded, it doesn’t take that long to print up a contract and even less time to sign one. why wasn’t it signed? was it the club? was it ramsey? was it emery? i don’t know and, truthfully, i don’t care. i wish ramsey well.
Is Ozil, for all his faults, not among the 19 best players at Arsenal Football Club? The answer is no, he certainly is. And if the answer is no, Emery’s judgment will come under intense scrutiny. I’m not a football coach, but any decision to leave Ozil out of a matchday squad of 18 is completely unjustified. Already strained, something broke against Southampton for that 3rd goal when he lost the ball and just stood there like stunned mullet. The coach’s handling of this has been bad, but so, I think, has the player’s. I said, the first time this happened, that Emery could have been more diplomatic in shielding Ozil from damaging media speculation.
Emery has been deal a bad hand, he knows he’s been dealt a bad hand, and so he’s decided that he’d going to be straight up about everything. It’s been said as if it’s gospel that he had an input in reneging on the Ramsey agreement; but with his treatment of Ozil, I wonder.
I think what we are seeing is some of the inherent tensions in the Director of Football management model, something that Arsene was dead set against. Emery does not have to give a stuff about Ozil’s wage packet. He was not party to that agreement. He’s there to win games with the resources that he has. But man, there’s no credible explanation for Mesut Ozil not being in your squad of 18. A coach is best served by having options. When one of your options ISN’T the squad’s most creative player, time to question the coach.
Maybe with cash apparently in short supply (ha ha) he’s trying to force ozil out to fund purchases.
I remember being outraged that Ozil didn’t challenge for the ball on that play. Very astute of you discerning this was the final straw. But this seems like Emery trying to establish his dominance-a reaction to his inability to do so with a star player at PSG perhaps? I think he’s misread Ozil here. Different situation and different club. But what do we know about their interaction and relationship? Pure speculation on my part.
i was thinking the same thing, la, concerning his inability to control the big players at psg. ozil isn’t like neymar or any of the big babies.
likewise, ozil probably doesn’t tackle a lot because he’s probably not very good at it. when you ask players to do what they’re not good at, it puts them in uncomfortable situations that negatively impact their play. gilberto wasn’t really a ball winner but when vieira left, everyone expected him to fill that void. result: a player who played the entire unbeaten season without picking up a single caution started racking up sendings off. same with hleb and his shooting. people were outraged that he didn’t shoot more. it’s because he can’t shoot. he’ll put it in row z.
I am really fascinated by this apparent showdown. Ozil’s social media team is winning the battle here. Ozil is staying positive and showing up for practice, seemingly, while Emery digs himself deeper with every press conference.
I don’t necessarily think tackling is the only issue. It might be about positional discipline – not creating big spaces for opponents. And yes, he is a poor tackler, but simply influencing and pressuring play can create defensive results. Ozil could do better in those worlds. But for god’s sake, play the man!
It’s either personal, which is unacceptable or, especially with the cost-saving memo that went around, a prelude to a transfer.
In the latter case, Arsenal better sign (or promote) some real talent fast or fans will stop watching and buying. Arsenal doesn’t own us, and shouldn’t be able to take us for granted by putting an inferior product on the pitch.
Yes, this is a transition year. Yes, it will be difficult. I’m not even expecting CL next year (would be nice). I am expecting direction, identity, progress, and credibility. And expecting integrity in how we handle players is not a sign of entitlement!
I now miss complaining about Wenger and the 4th Place Trophy.
Football will never see the likes of him again.
He apparently has at least one more managing contract in him.
Where will end up this year? Any guesses?
I would love him to manage Ireland but also I wouldn’t like to inflict that on him. The guys been through enough.
Not in the top 5 for sure
Haha, I think 1Nil meant “Where will Wenger end up this year?” (though, yes, probably not the top 5 in England. Just like us.)
I was excited early in the season when Emery kept changing formations and lineups every week. I thought he was mastering the horses for courses approach- winning the tactical battle in doing so. Through that lens, leaving Ozil out for more physical matches made sense. But as the season has limped along, it seems I may have given him too much credit. Either he was just experimenting and got lucky repeatedly or the league has just figured him out. Horses for courses would have demanded Ozil play this weekend. Creativity would be rewarded against a team that like us has conceded 32 goals. Wham was clearly vulnerable but we were so awful moving from midfield to attack. If it didn’t come from a cutback it didn’t threaten. Leaving Ozil out was absurd but then not starting Ramsey was unforgivable. Tim is once again spot on about the likely locker room impact. There is a chance Emery alienates the entire squad. If he is planning a complete roster overhaul in Summer, maybe he just doesn’t care.
it’s like i posted below, everyone loves to play with a great passer. “i don’t like playing with players like ozil, fabregas, bergkamp, xavi, and pirlo” said no one, ever!
the players know what they need and i can guarantee that they’re not convinced by emery’s ozil approach. imagine him at barcelona and benching messi because he doesn’t tackle enough. nuts!
LOL Josh. Auba and Laca dont com pl Latin when Ozil over passes. They were starved Saturday. The former was looking visibly frustrated.
* don’t complain when Ozil “over-passes”
smh making comments on mobile
Are you using Swiftkey keyboard? That looks like its behaviour, which is annoying.
Daily mail and Sky Sports are baiting Arsenal fans: saying Emery wants Õzil out this January, so it could actually be a locker room battle.
even if it’s true, that’s not a battle emery can win. ozil doesn’t have to do anything except be where he’s told to be by the boss. he doesn’t have to agree a wage reduction or a transfer. this guy loves london, loves his paycheck, and loves the club. he’s not going anywhere unless an offer he can’t refuse comes in.
This saga won’t end well for Emery if the poor results persist or if he doesn’t change his strategy. If he does this against Chelsea, we may be looking at another heavy loss, but this time at home. And if the fans turn on the negativity, it could really go south before May.
there’s a rule in american football, basketball, hockey, and soccer that says “everyone loves to play with someone who knows how to pass”. mesut routinely makes passes that most players can’t even see, let alone make. routinely! he makes everyone around him better and scares the crap out of every defense he faces. he’s an asset that’s not being mishandled and that’s the very definition of bad management.
to compare ozil to jenkinson is ridiculous. it seems only a fool would do that but to do it on more than one occasion is deplorable. clearly, emery has more belief in his system than he does in ozil. that’s okay but he’d better prove he’s right by winning. most managers are smart enough to not be angry because a ferrari can’t do what a john deere does. to talk about what mesut doesn’t do well is like saying what lebron james doesn’t do well. it’s nuts!
mesut took to twitter to announce on friday that he’d had a full week of training under his belt and was ready to go for west ham. emery didn’t play him and arsenal’s attack had no cutting edge. result: arsenal trying to break down west ham’s defense was like trying to chop down a tree with an aluminum bat. emery left the cutting edge at home. ockham’s razor, anyone?
err, an asset that’s being mishandled.
I was just thinking about this before coming on here wondering if anyone was talking about Ozil being dropped. Turned out that was the article. Awesome.
Mostly, this makes me sad. Not for any other reason except that I like watching good football. Ozil is an artist. I love watching him play. He can be frustrating, but he’s always looking for something that elevates the game in an attacking sense. I took it for granted that Arsenal is supposed to be like that. I don’t like this obsession with playing to a system regardless of the talent available. Seems more LVG or Mourinho like to me.
In fact, benching Ozil also seems Mourinhoesque whereby he has to prove how he’s the bad man, the leader of the team, by taking on and (best case) destroying a big player in the squad. The Vermaelen situation was nothing like this. Wenger persisted with him for very long, and ultimately dropped him in favour of a better option. Where’s the better, or even realistic, option to Ozil? Not at Arsenal and not likely to be. Destroying the player’s value is also unlikely to appeal to the higher ups at Arsenal, especially when results don’t justify it. Unless they’re in it with Emery to try and force Ozil out and save on the weekly wages.
I don’t know. It’s super weird, and I super don’t like it. No Ozil, no party. And it does seem like much of the squad feel the same way. Seems to have thrown them off. No one seems to be playing freely anymore.