First, thanks for all the comments on Friday’s post. I’m sorry that I didn’t approve some until today. We use a weird WordPress filter here and certain words are automatically banned. If you see regulars using asterix in certain words that’s in order to keep their comments safe. I recommend using an asterix in every word. I think I’ve promised this before but I will try to look at the comments section more often in order to catch the good stuff that’s being banned for using a bad word.
As for the Arsenal match, yay. We won. I’m not a big fan of the FA Cup but I liked seeing the youngsters out there and would love to see more of them. That said, watching the game I had the feeling that this should have been a 15-0 win for the Arsenal.
Blackpool’s fans and owners are locked in a battle for control of the club. The Blackpool Supporters Trust handed out leaflets asking the away fans not to buy anything inside the grounds and most of the local fans have taken to boycotting the club entirely.
The sooner the EFL get involved and oust the Oystons (the owner) the better it will be for a storied old Football club. If you want to read more on Blackpool and why the fans are protesting, I suggest you crack open the Guardian for once in your life. You scum.
It was clear to me from the start that the Blackpool players weren’t competing at a high level and I don’t blame them at all. It has to be energy sapping to play in front of such small home crowds. Though I will say that oddly they are 9th in League 1 and they have a pretty decent home record so it’s not always the case that empty stands equals poor performances. But on this day, they were just bad.
Apart from about 18 minutes at the start of the 2nd half, Arsenal comprehensively outplayed them and did so at what looked to be about 1/2 speed. I’m not saying that to make fun of Blackpool or the supporters. It’s just an observation.
Arsenal don’t play again until Saturday against Wet Hams at the Cavernous Government Stadium. It’s one of my favorite kickoff times, 0430. Yay.
This is the time of year that I would normally bang up a few articles about which players Arsenal could buy but since Arsenal aren’t buying anyone (come on, you know it’s true, the Orn has even said so) there’s no point. If we get some 35 year old, one-legged player who can barely make a 3 yard pass, and has somehow forgotten basic defending (you know, another Lichtsteiner) I will write a glowing review of how brilliant it was to bring this guy in. But don’t expect anything.
What I will do is have a look back at the things I promised everyone that I would look back on. In case you forgot what they were:
- Ozil’s defense – not just Ozil, but all of the players individual defensive stats. I wrote about Ozil’s lack of defense compared to de Bruyne, Firmino, and Erikson last season but I think we need to look at how all of the front players operate for those teams and how we compare. That should give us a baseline to see improvement this season.
- How the defense will change in general: profile Wenger’s defensive style (interceptions by the CB’s), as a baseline to see how Emery changes Arsenal. Especially the midfield of Xhaka, Ramsey, Torreira, Elneny, and Guendouzi.
- How does Arsenal get goals for both Auba and Laca? How many more shots do we need to take to have two 20 goal a season forwards? This should look at Arsene Wenger’s odd tendency to not get as many shots as you might expect (because he essentially forbade shots from outside the box) and how Arsenal could increase shots and chance creation.
- Big chances: created and conceded. The key stat of the season.
- Errors: how many errors did Arsenal concede over the last few seasons and what was Unai’s record at PSG. This should also be an article to refer back to.
- Keepers: what is baseline expectations from Cech and Leno in terms of saves% and errors for goals? What do they need to do to exceed baseline?
- Arsenal away form. What was Arsenal’s home form versus away form last season, it has to improve!
- League table prediction. Using big chances conceded and created last season, plus money spent, can we predict the League table?
Will that satisfy you?
Hi Tim
It’s shame you don’t think much of the FA Cup; it’s what first got me supporting Arsenal, but that was in 1950, so I’ve had a few years to absorb it. Sure it’s lost the glamour that once made it such a world wide attraction (you can blame Ferguson (2000 World Club Tournament) for his contribution to this), and it will be more & more marginalised as time passes but for giant killing there is no equal.
Ha! I liked the FA Cup back in 2000s when Freddie was making Terry eat grass and I’ve even been to an FA Cup match and a League Cup final. I also loved Ramsey’s goal to get the win over Hull. They can produce some memorable moments for sure but I think for me, the real joy is to win in Europe or the League. Nothing beats the high of a League title run-in.
We’ve drawn Man U in the 4th round, so with them hitting some recent good form this could be quite a cracker.
I like that list of topics, looking forward to reading your work in the new year as always.
It’s hard to believe Blackpool were once a PL club. I had a brief look back over their sole top flight 2010-11 campaign and they had their moments. Remember Charlie Adam and his 20 million pound corners? Ian Holloway’s men gave us something memorable that season and they held their own despite refusing to resort to the usual stodgy tactics of newly promoted clubs aimed at minimizing chances in both directions.
* t**** t*** w** e******* a***** a**** u***** b** w****, I******!
T**** y**.
Asterixing is more difficult than it looks – and anyway, Shard will tell me it is not politically correct – so maybe I will just stop using bad words, like
Spursetc. 🤪An excellent list to look backwards on, imothym, but the real kicker would be a matching list to look forward to your solutions.
One suggestion I have, which is to improve both Laca and Auba to equal 20 goals a season players would be to play Laca for more 90 minute games, maybe?
Why do I have to come up with solutions? If I could do that I would be making millions managing this club!
Umm, not being totally flippant, I think perhaps another solution that is scratching away at the inside of my puerile brain, as regards;
6. Keepers: what is baseline expectations from Cech and Leno in terms of saves% and errors for goals? What do they need to do to exceed baseline?
Cech = Leave Arsenal and play in a less demanding league?
Leno = Realise that goal keeping requires more than simple shot stopping — go learn to deal with crosses, learn to dribble 1 yard from the goal line and — I guess you have got it by now. 😏
I was hoping that Shard would have intervened by now, and saved you all from my musings — but ……
As regards 1. I think Mesut should be excused boots – and not be required to ‘tackle back’ in defence. He can’t tackle in any case, and gets tired thinking about running back. In fairness he logs up the miles in games, and is a brilliant forward – so keep him up there and get some proper defenders who don’t need him back in defence causing the occasional al mayhem.
Seems fair. 😎
If Shard does not turn up in the next 30 minutes — the rest of you get it.
Blame him!! 🥺
To be honest I kind of agree with you on Özil. Could the answer be found in Özil’s own past? What is different now from 2010-2013 Özil or even the 2015-16 Özil with 19 assists in PL? What happened to the player who I believe ended the Group Phase of WC2018 with most chances created by playing just 2 games?
Do we really need him to learn to play everywhere on the pitch like Torreira or 2013 Ramsey?
In that regard I’d love to see an analysis of defensive play vs attacking play for other top playmakers, from PL but also foreign CL clubs. How do Messi, Neymar (in his new freeroaming #10 role at PSG), Dybala, KDB and others compare to Özil now and Özil back in 2012-13 and 2015-16?
Disagree on Ozil. No passengers, please. Or we’ll never beat teams like City, where no one is allowed to slack off.
Besides, we’re not asking him to bust a gut. We’re asking merely to try to win the ball from the guy in possession 3 feet to his right.
A lot of his running is unproductive. He often busibodies near opponents without really affecting the play.
Agreed. I help but think of Bernado’s performance against the Scousers. Ostensibly, he’s cover for KDB. He played more like Kante. Incredible. Had anyone, including Silva, ever seen him play like that before? It seems credit to Pep is due for at least picking the most motivated squad.
*can’t help but
This is hard on a mobile
He is the master of the “jogalong” when it comes to defense. 🙂
I would even be ok with that as long as he does actually influence play when it’s really needed. But it’s less about tackling and more about positional discipline. If he’s out of position defensively, everyone has to compensate. Ozil floats around the field so much that he can be out of position ANYWHERE on the pitch. So everyone has to be ready to compensate at a moment’s notice. That eliminates the possibility of pressing and creates too much space for opponents.
Plus, the competition is so much more intense that teams can’t afford a player who creates this sort of liability. Still, I love me some Ozil on his day. They are just getting fewer and further between.
We’ll never be satisfied Tim, never
7. Does home and away forms matter anymore? Since the top 6 was formed, the formula to win title and stay in contention for UCL has been…
Max points in home/away against all teams outside top 6.
Win/draw but never lose among teams in top 6.
Will the points breakdown from fixtures against top 6 and those from outside top 6 would be a better indicator of teams performances. I would like to know you have viewed the past few seasons in this perspective and made inferences? Thanks.
I love the cup precisely for matches like these. I want to see more than I usually would of Saka, Willock and Medley. Im not in love with the lack of seedings that can get us an absurdly hard tie early on, but 2 of our recent FA Cup wins included tough passages.
As for winning 15-0, Arsenal generally lack ruthlessness. We like to play. we need more goal greedy bast@rds who would constantly test a lower league goalie form 20 yards. He’s not saving many, is he? And how conservative is Emery, even bringing Lacazette to this game. Or is he right to have that sort of contingency, even against Blackpool?
Of the choices, I like Options 2 and 5.
“Im not in love with the lack of seedings that can get us an absurdly hard tie early on….”
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Quoting yourself is a bit Trumpian, but see what I mean? We got frickin United in the 4th round. Don’t like. Even if we win, it’s an unnecessarily tough game at a tough part of the season, and United have more depth than we do.
How conservative is Klopp, bringing Salah and Firmino? I know Wolves are a different level, but arguably, the FA Cup is more of a troubling distraction to Pool’s aspiration to win the league/CL and perhaps a more important, more attainable target for Arsenal.
Wolves beat Manchester City in the premier league over Christmas. We’re talking apples and oranges.
Klopp, technically, threw that game. Salah and Firminho were fig leaves.
I don’t blame him. He foreshadowed a bit in his comments before the Citeh match. It’s true-Emery would’ve have to try hard to lose to Blackpool -but it seems crazy for Klopp to risk anyone. He’s down to one central defender now-lose one of that front trident and Pool can kiss a title challenge goodbye.
I like the list, and will read and enjoy pretty much anything you write.
One question that might be relevant to your analysis: Does Arsenal basically have two teams, three at the back and four at the back, and does that mean each of those stats should be tracked by formation? It might be interesting to know whether errors, big chances created and conceded vary by formation.
A great question. I wonder, however, with all of the injuries and crazy combinations that we’ve had at the back about whether any analysis by formation would be instructive. Without Holding, we’ve been much worse no matter which formation, from what I recall of Tim’s recent analysis.
Fair concern.
I don’t care that Ozil does not contribute defensively. What I care about is he is not doing enough offensively. Of course you also need to actually play in order to do that.
I must digress to celebrate Liverpool’s ousting from the FA Cup by Wolverhampton yet again! (2 out of 3 years).
Robert Plant, I salute your club. They are a “Heartbreaker” to Merseyside fans.
And Sturridge showed himself to be more a “Big Log” than realistic depth in attack. Keita showed a bit of his ability to dribble through the lines but also struggled later on.
Wait till someone splashes another 30M on sturridge… smh
Ozil definitely causes a bit of a rift between fans — in some cases maybe it is not just a ‘bit’ of a rift.
He is capable of being far and away the most skilful player we have, but …..
You will note I did not say ‘the best’ player we have, because he is not a great goal scorer, or is not a non-stop energetic player or an influential defender. We have others who are better than him in those areas – Auba – Terrier/Rambo – PassthePolos.
However no one in the current squad are as good as him at making goals (OK ‘assists’ if you prefer – altho an assist gets chalked up if it came off the ass of a team mate).
When he is playing with confidence, and is feeling the love, he is superb and instrumental in some of Arsenal’s most sublime attacking football which is as good as any in the top four of the Premier League.
There is a case for having competent, hardworking, industrious players in any team, and we have them — they are essential, but they are not capable of the levels Mesut can achieve, and if we were to get rid of him, we may live to regret that.
Others make valid but alternative points about Özil and his usefulness, or not, for the team. I think that teams should think like D’Artagnan’s crowd ‘One for All, All for one’ — but even they had room for different attributes; Porthos, the biggest and strongest, Aramis the hot tempered, volatile one, and Athos the relaxed, jaunty most skilful swordsman. And football teams and their compositions are no exceptions to that — without the swords, naturally. 🤪
Just an opinion, you understand – disagree if you please.
while it’s early, i must say that i’m unimpressed with emery and the way he’s handled ozil (and lacazette but that’s for another discussion). bottom line is this, ozil is the man at arsenal and there’s a reason for that; he’s arsenal’s best player! he’s won more silverware than anyone in that dressing room, including emery. however, it seems that emery is more determined to be the man than mesut. he has this sort of jose mourinho about him where takes a tremendous available talent and, as a manager, implies that he has no use for this guy. nuts! when you have the talent arsenal possess, you set them up for success and simply let them go out and be.
in the previous thread, i talked about management and how important it was for the manager to be efficient with the players he has available. emery seems more determined to implement his system. he should be more focused on using the resources he has to win. he should be building the team around it’s best player.
arsenal should be playing a 4-3-1-2. play your best back four, 3 true ball winners in midfield behind mesut, with mesut in the 10 spot behind two potent goal scorers. done! you’ve got a solid defense, balance in midfield, two 20-goal strikers, and a #10 who eclipses the premier league assist record. emery has other ideas…
arsenal shouldn’t be struggling against brighton and hove, losing to bottom 3 southampton, or getting thrashed by liverpool and tottenham. emery is about a sevilla-villareal level manager. can he turn arsenal around and lead them to a championship? he’s never done that before so i’m not holding my breath. does he have the management skill to get the best out of mesut ozil? i doubt it. we’ll see.
I do not agree entirely with you on Emery and his treatment of Lacazette & Özil.
Emery tried to shield Özil as much as possible from the fallout of the Germany WC elimination, saying that the Arsenal family was standing with him, made him one of the captains, etc.
I do agree that he’s making a mistake pushing Özil out if his profile doesn’t work perfectly with the system he’s trying to set. Except if you’re Guardiola at City and can splash the cash to fully rebuild the squad from the ground up in 2-3 windows, a coach should work with the hand he’s been dealt. The fact is that Özil is our best player on his day, and our biggest star / highest paid player. So the plan should be to get the best out of him rather than push him aside.
And while I’m annoyed that Lacazette cannot have a more prominent role considering his contributions so far every time he steps on the pitch, I don’t see how it could be any different. He and Aubameyang cannot be played together for 90 min week-in week-out with Welbeck injured and Nketiah as our sole backup striker. I think Lacazette has proven to be mentally very strong and respond positively to this kind of challenge, and that’s why Emery uses him in many different ways, either replacing him early, sending him on late as an impact player, sending him to lower cup games as an insurance policy and to supervise the kids.
Regarding your 4-3-2-1 suggestion, who would be in your 3 man midfield? Torreira, Xhaka and… Guendouzi? Iwobi? How do you make that work with Ozil?
Not including Ramsey as his days in an Arsenal shirt are sadly numbered.
it’s a 4-3-1-2, not a 4-3-2-1, with ozil as the one behind the 2 strikers and 3 center mids behind him (ramsey, guendouzi, and torreira).
as an aside, i wouldn’t have released cazorla last summer. he’s a spaniard that could have helped with my transition as well as serve as a mentor for my new young bucks. also, i wouldn’t have given xhaka an extension; he’s a one-trick pony. last, i would have tried to bring lo celso from psg with me.
I think that list just about covers it.
Can’t help feeling that this anti Lichtsteiner bias is a personal dig at me as I backed him to be a success even though he’s a hundred years old. He hasn’t been as good as I expected and I hereby defer to Tim’s infinitely superior feels from now onwards.
It’s hard to argue with Josh that Emery is being pretty stubborn by not putting out his best eleven. It’s ok as long as the results go with you (and performances like v Spurs help). But when we lose and draw games that we should be winning it’s only natural that people will start to ask questions. I am short on faith right now but long on patience so it evens out.