Well it looks like there is a lot to talk about today, even though I really don’t want to talk about any of it. I’d much rather just post a simple “lol what lineup do you think Emery will pick for Fulham tomorrow” or better yet “lol here are some funny new year’s resolutions” but we got some pretty definitive news on Aaron Ramsey today and we should talk about that.
I think we all knew this was coming but David Ornstein reported that Ramsey is opening negotiations for his services with a host of big clubs: Juventus, Bayern, Inter, PSG, and Real Madrid. There are other reports that Juventus leads the chase and that makes sense since Khedira is 31/32 and has struggled to regain his form from last season.
Juventus would also see Ramsey link back up with Szczesny, which is the sort of heartbreaking sentence I have to write these days as an Arsenal blogger.
Ramsey is one of those players who divides opinion. Some folks think he’s a legend for his years of service and his two FA Cup winning goals. Other folks say he’s crap. I learn toward “not quite legend.” He’s certainly not crap. A move to a better-run club will be a boon to his career as he will finish out with a large paycheck and several League trophies.
This Ramsey saga represents a hard truth about Arsenal, that we have been a poorly run club. Ornstein’s article sounds like it was taken directly from a meeting with management, with the BBC man reporting:
“With no major departures expected in January and heavy investment in new signings and contracts over the past year, Arsenal do not have significant funds to spend in the upcoming transfer window.
Any permanent acquisitions, loan fees and salaries will be drawn from a modest budget and therefore loan deals are more probable, with out-of-favour Barcelona midfielder Denis Suarez, 24, among those under consideration. That budget is likely to increase substantially in the summer.”
So, that’s that then. Don’t expect anything in January. Which is what I thought would happen. Arsenal didn’t buy Unai Emery to make him a checkbook manager. He’s here to improve the players that we have so that we can sell them on for big profits and build the club or as Ornstein puts it: “Emery will be given time to implement his vision and mould a squad over the course of several transfer windows, in a similar way to how Liverpool have developed since Jurgen Klopp arrived in October 2015.”
(Source: https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/46722051)
This report from Orny prompted a bit of tut tutting and “you should know Arsenal aren’t spending money” from a number of corners and for various reasons but the most intriguing was a conversation I had with Tim Stillman on Twitter. He pointed out that the AST (Arsenal Supporter’s Trust, which is still a thing, even though the company is now 100% private) did a mock up of the November report that Arsenal would have normally released at this time of year but for Kroenke taking sole ownership.
(Source: https://www.arsenaltrust.org/news/2017/arsenals-financial-position-for-201718-assessed)
The basic breakdown of that article is that AST estimates Arsenal netted a profit of about £70m to the end of season 2017/18. If true, that would swell Arsenal’s cash holdings (which one reader told me to think of as gold, which prompted a funny image in my head of Arsenal vaulting pallets of gold bars) to well over £200m. Some of that cash is untouchable because of agreements on the stadium debt, but that’s just about £20m.
All of that profit comes from player sales, which as you know, Arsenal use Amortization (FC) and when players are sold, the entire amount is marked down while purchases are amortized. Without player sales, the actual business end of Arsenal lost money (£44m) last year because of the loss of Champions League ticket sales, tv money, and sponsorship deals. While it does put money in the bank, player sales aren’t a sustainable way to turn profits and obviously the board and management team know that.
The other thing that AST does in that article is (without showing their work) suggest that Arsenal will make a net loss at the end of this season and they project that loss to be between £60-70m. I suspect that they are just taking the amount of loss from this year, carrying it forward, and adding in the amortization of player purchases from this summer. But we won’t know if that prediction is right for another entire calendar year, when Arsenal post the 2018/19 financial results in the Companies House in February 2019.
But it might give us a clue as to why the club won’t spend this January.
If true, it means they simply spent the profits from last season this summer. And it means the club are reluctant to use any more of that cash on hand until next year when the new sponsorship money comes in and they are able to clear off some significant wages. It also gives a clue as to why the club withdrew the contract offer for Ramsey. If Arsenal are making losses every year, Kroenke will want the club to tighten the belt until we can break even or turn a profit.
I have to admit I’m of two minds here. Part of me doesn’t believe that Arsenal would ever truly operate at a loss. It just hasn’t been the case with this club at almost any time during my almost 20 years of following the club. That said, the story is kind of compelling and does match up with the gross facts that we have in front of us. It also means that Arsenal aren’t “mismanaged” so much as this is just the direction the corporation wants to take and has always sort of taken.
What I do feel certain about is that bit about “being like Liverpool”. That feels like it came straight out of the mouths of the “Brain Trust” and reminds me of things that Arsenal have said in the past like “not wanting to pull a Leeds” and other corporate slogans that have been passed off as strategic planning in the past. The goal then here for Emery is that he is charged with improving players so that they can be sold. Those sales will be used to buy better players, or players who more closely fit with Emery’s squad building. It also means that everyone suggesting that this is a three year process (another phrase I’m growing to loathe) are right on the money.
Seeing this as accurate too.
Further, it allows the brain trust to have a good look at Emery’s capacity to develop for selling-on– prior to doling out substantial cash to build UE’s model.
While Emery is as good as any– to be driving the vehicle at present? This process gives Raul, Sven and Vinai a good long(er) look.
jw1
Excellent analysis. And yes, I followed the exchanges on twitter with great interest.
One point of departure is the 3 year project. Emery’s job is to deliver Champions League football THIS season. No a year hence, not 3 years hence. “Given time” in corporate speak I read as being in a position to compete for the title.
Tom and i had a little disagreement about this, but there’s a difference between what the board is tasking Emery to do, and what we believe he’s capable of doing with the resources he has. Trust me on this — the board did not strong-arm Arsene out of door to be content with Emery providing the same results.
That’s not incompatible with developing players and building transfer value. Emery does not have a lot of time to demonstrate a turnaround, even a modest one.
This.
But….. Even though CL is a must. I doubt they’ll sack him after one season if we don’t get it. Not after the Raul led board are destroying the Gazidis led squad build, based on Emery’s ‘system’.
One thing I would like to know though. Is Emery taking inputs from the board on who to play, or are the board listening and reacting to what he sees and wants?
Losing Ramsey could just be about keeping the wage bill down as much as him not fitting the system. But Emery was supposed to have dossiers on all our players and how they’d fit in, made Ramsey a captain, but has now discovered he doesn’t want him?
I’m not sure I’d be happy with the answer either way.
No, I don’t think he’ll get the sack if he fails to deliver CL football this season. That’d be exceedingly harsh. But he’ll have fallen short of his main kpi. He will be given time in the job, probably a minimum of 3 years. But that is his title compete timeline, not CL qualification.
Arsenal’s business/operatiinal plan is tied closely to CL football. Another year adrift, and his end of term meeting with the board of directors would be decidedly tense.
The board, rightly or wrongly, see Arsenal FC as an elite, champions league club. We don’t have to agree with that for it to be true.
Happy new year to all my fellow blog visitors. We may fight occasionally and lose our patience, but I think this is a great community. A very happy new year to you and to Tim.
Happy New Year friend!
jw1
Happy New Year!
Not a fully functional team yet. Playing in the champions league feels like a step too far for this team at this stage.
Can’t run on a Champions League budget when performing at a Euro League level.
I haven’t checked in for a week or so: it appears however that the first of Wenger’s 3 envelopes has been opened. I give Emery a year before he is preparing three envelopes.
WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN FOR ARSENAL TO WIN A PENALTY FFS
Mkhitaryan gets his foot broken by Lucas in the box, Lacazette gets elbowed in the face in the box, play on. Salah tumbles over, Lovren swan dives, Son performs a nice pirouette, penalties all. I’m so over it.
To paraphrase Klopp, there must be blood.
Refs have stopped calling fouls on Torreira as well. It’s noticeable.
Agreed. Apparently whacking Torreira from behind from shoulders down, is now considered legal.
jw1
Keith Andrews said it was “a good strong challenge” and that Seri “nicked the ball” which proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that he doesnt understand the rules of the game he used to be paid to play and is now paid to analyze.
That was as an unconvincing 4-1 win as you will ever see.
Interesting because the xG stats have Arsenal at 4+ xG.
I see where he’s coming from though, those two 1st half Sessegnon chances and the second half wobbles were ghastly. Kolasinac just not tracking runners at the back post for the Sessegnon one and for their goal, Xhaka and Guendouzi pushing too high up without putting pressure on the ball for the Sessegnon 1v1 and then Mitrovic bullying our CB’s for 3 headers from the same spot. Fortunately Fulham are terrible defensive team and we hung lots of goals on them, it’s a good confidence builder but not much more. This team seriously needs a reset and come back out for 2019 with a determination to close down and work as a unit for 90 minutes.
I take it as read that EPL refs are sh1t. But what’s Emery doing yanking Laca again? I’m sorry, but his management of this player is bizarre. Almost as if he wants to show who the big man is.
Why’s Mesut missing this time? A shoulder injury?
I read that as managing Laca’s minutes due to an injury he’s carrying. Too bizarre to be tactical. Mustafi the same.
He’s not currently carrying an injury.
How do you know that?
Deductive logic (1) Lacazette’s strops are not consistent with a player who knows he’s being nursed (2) the medical bulletin
Sometimes, you know Doc, the coach gets it wrong.
Maybe his strops are consistent with a player who doesn’t want to be nursed quite so much?
The medical bulletin is not like the NFL where players are assigned a status like day to day or questionable. It lists players who are unavailable. There is no provision as far as I’m aware for injuries that are being “managed” but do not rule the players out to be reported anywhere.
I appreciate that the coach can be wrong. I just think that’s too often hastily applied to situations we barely understand. I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to people with professional coaching badges who work with the players personally day in and day out and are surrounded by professionals in all sorts of departments around player health.
Emery says that the decision to sub Laca was tactical, to combat Fulham bringing on midfielder Jean Michael Seri; Ramsey would be able to combat him as well as offering some goal threat, which in the event worked out perfectly on both counts (but he would say that wouldn’t he).https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/46677557
*sigh*
Is it in every team’s charter? When promoted to the PL you must gift Harry Kane one goal per match?
jw1