Just last week Jonathan Wilson wrote an article titled “Granit Xhaka improvement is clearest sign of Emery changes at Arsenal” in which he made the following proclamation: “Xhaka’s improvement is perhaps the most palpable sign of the difference Emery has made. No longer is he a fine but disassociated left foot bobbing unreliably around midfield, his positioning uncertain, the capacity for a mistake terrifyingly near.”
Wilson is a fantastic writer and one of the keenest football observers on the planet. I have read his opus magnum Inverting the Pyramid and thoroughly enjoyed both his writing style and the incredible depth of his research. He has forgotten more about football than I will ever know.
So, it was a strange bit of writing because Granit Xhaka has absolutely not vanquished his capacity for a mistake. And it was clear just the week prior to that article that this was the case when Xhaka dangled a leg out in the box so that Zaha would have a convenient obstacle to dive over. Sure, Zaha exaggerated and initiated contact but if Xhaka doesn’t attempt that tackle (which was plainly a dumb idea) and get it so late and so wrong then Zaha would have been booked for simulation. But Xhaka did attempt a tackle in the box.
This is how Xhaka has always played. He’s a talented footballer for picking out long crosses with his left foot and delivering set plays. He’s also always got a moment of madness in him. He’s been this way since before he joined Arsenal, a worrying proclivity that was first pointed out by Naveen four years ago. It’s a problem which he’s never overcome and probably never will.
Yesterday’s match against Wolverhampton Wanderers was the perfect example of Xhaka. He completed an incredible 97/109 passes and that’s an important stat. But just as important, he had zero key passes, he won just 1 tackle and he had just 2 interceptions. He also gave up the error that won them a point, and got rinsed by Cavaliero on a simple give and go for the goal.
In a match against an opponent who pack in their defense and who want to hit you on the counter, you need your two deepest midfielders to pick the lock of their defense and they also need to be able to read the game well enough to break up counter attacks. He did neither and it wasn’t a surprise that Emery brought on Guendouzi in order to try to get ahold of the midfield.
Guendouzi also failed to take control of this match. In fact, Arsenal’s midfield three of Guendouzi, Xhaka, and Torreira showed that they have a long way to go to earn the hype that’s been leveled at them since Arsenal squeaked a draw against Liverpool.
And that surely is the problem. They lack consistency. One match they are giving it to Liverpool, hounding them off the pitch, putting in one of the best performances I’ve seen from an Arsenal side since we beat Barcelona like 100 years ago when Lord Bendtner was still able to get away with attacking taxi drivers. In the next match, they are aimlessly bobbing about in the middle of the pitch and getting cut to ribbons. It’s no exaggeration to say that Arsenal should have lost that match exactly because we couldn’t control the midfield. So the Guendouzi sub was an utter failure.
Perhaps they thought that they could just turn up and beat Nuno Espirito Santo’s well trained, well organized, Wolves. I sure hope not. The Wolfpack played exactly how I said they would: they tackled a lot, they nipped in to steal the ball, they fouled a lot and they played a lot of crosses from the wings.
Defensively, I have to hand it to Wolves, they had a ferocious bite. I’m used to seeing Allardycian/Mourinho teams sit back in the deep block and not really tackle much. But Nuno’s side actively tried to win the ball back in their own half. They had three players with 5 interceptions each (Doherty, Jonny, and Neves). Jonny also had 6/7 tackles, Moutinho was 4/6 tackles and Bennet (who also had 3 interceptions) added 3/4 tackles. Also, as a team they blocked 9 crosses and 17 clearances (to Arsenal’s 1).
The tactical point of playing this way is that it’s easier for players who are a bit less good (how’s that for me saying “they’re crap”?) to score when there are open spaces around them. With a player whose touch is maybe not that polished, they need that extra yard of space to control the ball. And Arsenal obliged. With the Gunners pulled out of shape, trying to get the winner, Wolves created some fantastic chances in the final 10 minutes of that match – thankfully those chances mostly fell to Traore who is fast but not really a great footballer. And also credit to Leno who saved two more big chances yesterday, bringing Arsenal’s total big chances saved this season to a League high 13, the same number as Brexit Means Brexit Burnley – a team who, like Brexit, exact zero control over games and just let the bad guys wash all over them.
Arsenal were so weird in their approach. Arsenal are last in the League in crosses per game, 3.2 successful out of 15.1. So, why did we attempt 27 crosses? Everyone tried them. Xhaka was worst going 0/12, but Lacazette went 0/4 Mkhi 0/3, Bellerin 0/2, etc. The only Arsenal players to connect on a cross were Kolasinac and Iwobi. It even looked like Mkhi’s goal was actually an attempted cross. Why were we doing that against Willy Boly, who is nearly 2m tall?
You also have to question Unai’s approach. Once again Arsenal got off to a slow start. Once again Unai Emery made changes at half time. When are we going to stop saying that his half-time changes are brilliant and start asking why we have to change the approach so often after the break? As Wenger once said, it’s actually a bad sign that a manager has to make early changes. Yes, if they come off, it’s great, but early changes means that the manager got his analysis completely wrong in the buildup to the match. If it was once or twice, that would be one thing, but time and again Unai is getting the starting lineup dead wrong. It’s frustrating and worrying and it looks like we don’t really have a plan.
There was no injury to Iwobi. Emery admitted that he brought on Guendouzi to try to dominate the midfield. But it was, frankly, the exact wrong change to make and I said so at the time. I don’t care if Iwobi had 100 turnovers in this match, he is the only player on this team who can dribble and break down defenses. Wolves were packed in and when that happens you need someone good with the ball at his feet in the forward positions, not someone who likes to keep possession deep.
And finally, how much longer is Arsene Wenger going to take the blame for this team? We are objectively worse than we were under Wenger. Conceding so many more chances than Wenger’s teams ever did and making even more mistakes than ever before under Wenger.
Perhaps it’s a personnel problem. I know a lot of people think Wenger bought players like Mustafi and Xhaka but I’m not 100% certain about that. There was more than enough background smoke to suggest that Arsenal’s analytics team recommended those players. Regardless, Emery bought two midfielders this season and has been publicly charged with turning around the careers of several players. That’s his remit. That’s what he will be judged by. And so far, it’s not looking nearly as good as Jonathan Wilson would have us believe.
Even the idea that Torreira is some kind of tigerish shield in midfield is well overstated. Wilson said that his greatest quality is “perhaps is his capacity to make Xhaka look like a holding midfielder, even when playing in front of Shkodran Mustafi. He is only 22 and yet the summer signing has had a galvanising effect throughout the team. What Arsenal needed, it turns out, was not another technically gifted but physically unimposing forward but some muscle at the back of midfield.”
The stats don’t bear any of this out. Arsenal are conceding more big chances than ever before, not fewer. And Torreira hardly tackles at all. When compared to Coquelin, who was the last actual defensive midfielder that Arsenal had, Torreira looks extremely lightweight: LT, 1.8 tackles, 1.7 interceptions; FC, 3.2 tackles, 3.7 interceptions. And even compared to players like Kante, Gueye, and others he’s nowhere near them. He’s not even the most prolific DM on the team, that’s Guendouzi still.
I’m far from an “Emery out” guy. He must be given time to settle this team and get them playing organized football. He must also be given time to fix problems with the problem players.
In the meantime, I guess I’m going to have to get used to frustration and inconsistency. We just played one of the best matches of the Emery era and followed it up with one of the worst. And I have a feeling that we are going to see a lot more weeks like this before we finally turn the corner.
I guess I would really just like these stupid narratives that Xhaka is a player reborn and Torreira is the great wall of North London to just stop. Neither are remotely true. Maybe they will be true one day and on that day you can say “see, Tim… you’re a putz”. But until then, I’d love it if we could all just accept the team for what it is.
The other thing I would love to see is Arsenal playing great from minute 1 to minute 45. Maybe we need the groundskeeper to change the clocks forward 45 minutes and for Emery to announce the lineup and make a substitution before the match, for once. I don’t know. Nothing else seems to be working.
what cobblers, ! worse than last season? jesus. LT not effective? my god. Xhaka Mustafi not AW signings? you sir, are so wrong (again) its hard to know where to start
He’s not all right, but he’s not all wrong. I applaud his narrative-busting. I don’t think we’re worse, but it does seem that we’re perhaps luckier. Then again, as an econometrician, I see sustained luck as perhaps being something that the numbers aren’t picking, rather than pure randomness.
I feel the same. Just like when Arsenal were putting up these great xG numbers in the Leicester season but the results just weren’t happening, something didn’t feel right. Leicester defied xG all season as well. It’s a difficult sport for stats because important events are so rare and the game’s flow and significance depends so heavily on them.
Leicester defied their xG for by nada. They played 10 goals better defense, which was down to the fact that they got so many blocked shots and we really didn’t know how to account for blocks the way that we do now.
Meanwhile, Arsenal underperformed by -9 goals in offense. This type of swing is totally normal statistically.
This. At a certain point, it’s difficult to mark it down to simple chance. It looks like (and so far the results have borne out) that something has changed in the team. Tim’s analysis, centered on the numbers, did read a bit doom-and-gloom to me. I applaud the narrative-busting. There were so many false dawns under Wenger. For now, I’ll take the consistent lucky breaks and give Emery plenty of time to work things out.
Precisely
We have a long way to go, our midfield is worryingly porous, and the narrative of rejuvenation is outstripping the reality – but that always happens and we should be used to it by now. We are rarely as bad as our bad reviews, and rarely as good as our good ones.
Objectively worse? 12 games in to last season we were on 22 points and we currently have 28. Some things have got better, some things have got worse, so surely it depends what you want to focus on. But at some point we did decide to stop losing, which is nice.
Good article Tim and so was your numbers piece of wolves game in Arsenal review.
Xhaka was good against Liverpool and I want to keep that thought. Has he turned a corner? May be or may be not. In my opinion that should be the least of our worries. Emery said early on (his discussion of No. 6, 8 10’s) he doesn’t have the midfield personnel yet for his system. Expecting him to get us top 4 straight away is more a hope than expectation. For however bad you think AW was in his last few seasons he still achieved what he did by hiding the team flaws with individuality of certain players. I am confident and hopeful of Emery correcting those flaws. Average players before are improving. Certain good players quality are going down but I think instead of trying to correct those he might just get rid of them slowly. Saves club money (our owner loves it), more upside on younger buys (more money again!) and gives us players the manager can mould his way. ALL IN for more EmeryBall with or without expected results …
As I said in the previous post, I would have started with Ramsey, probably instead of Iwobi. And yet, Iwobi was the only one trying to make something happen and I was amazed at that substitution.
I’m not too concerned about the half time substitutions. I think it’s a mixture of getting to know the players in different situations, fitness issues, and yes, tactical adjustments/errors. I will be concerned if that carries on into the new year.
While watching yesterday, I had no idea how to ‘fix’ things. Like if I were the manager, what would I do different. That almost never happened to me in the Wenger era. I think it’s interesting just trying to figure out Emery’s ideas for the team, and what he does. So for the moment, I’m in learning mode and happy enough with how it’s gone. Not sure we’ll use the January window, based on Raul’s comments, but in any case, next summer’s transfer window will be when it can become Emery’s team.
Your idea of Xhaka and Mustafi not being Wenger signings has some merit based on certain statements he’s made, but at the same time, he signed off on them, so it’s still on him.
I agree with some of this, and disagree with other parts. Sometimes one does have to look past the stats and give some credit to both luck and attitude. Leicester when they won the league or United last year.
I do think we’re better than last year. We lost a number of games last year to teams in the bottom half. Those losses were significantly down to team attitude and Wenger.
That said, we still have some significant issues. The defense is the biggest one. Bellerin was pretty decent. Holding is good, but not fast, and needs a faster partner to cover him(like Kos and Mert partnered). Mustafi is not that person. And Kolasinac is not the answer at fullback either. I was initially pretty happy with him, but he’s been a disaster from a defending standpoint. Hopefully Monreal can get and stay healthy.
Ozil is a big problem too. He’s got to be able to produce more in games like this. Breaking down packed defenses. If he can’t do that, we’re going to see this and have this result every game. He’s supposed to be on a level with Silva and Debruyne, but is nowhere near.
As for Ozil I think he was looking for penetrative passes every time he got the ball. He tries to use body position and gestures to shift opposition players all the time. Unfortunately it did not come off. If every time we are going to blame Ozil for lack of productivity in attack then we are ignoring other serious problems in buildup.
This was a strange game for Ozil. He did his thing and kept looking for the passes but the movement in front of him wasn’t good enough or his intentions were read by the opposition. I thought he did alright, 83 passes, 2 KP, but its unusual for him to see so much of the ball and be able to create so little. Wolves had 26 blocks, 28 tackles and 28 interceptions! 26 blocks!! They telegraphed us, read us like the Sunday funnies.
I don’t disagree with either of those replies. He did try some passes, but nothing came off, either because no one made the run, or because he missed the pass. But he’s our highest paid player by some margin. He needs to be able to make a bigger impact in more games. I’m pretty sure that was him in the first half getting ball inside the area with a pretty good view of goal. He had a good shot. He needs to take that instead of trying a difficult pass across to Lacazette.
I noticed that also. He should’ve taken that shot. I think when Wenger made comments about Ö needing to score more he was specifically referring to situations like this where he could try a slightly more difficult pass which would probably result in a goal if it comes off or hit it first time. I’d like to see him shoot more.
Tim, what do you believe this Arsenal team needs to do in order to be better? Where are the opportunities for improvement, either on a personnel or systemic level? What do you believe Emery should be doing that he is not at this point in the season? Genuine questions to you and while I don’t expect that you necessarily have all the answers, I think it’s worth pondering. You point out a lot of deficiencies but I wonder more about what opportunities you see in those deficiencies. It sounds like you think this team could be better and I’d love to hear your ideas for that.
I also think it’s strange that positive, if possibly misguided narratives about our own players bother you to such an extent that you’ve brought them up in several posts and blogs now. Why do you care so much if one of our players gets undeserved praise? It sure goes the other way often enough.
I do completely disagree with your observation about our control or lackthereof on midfield in that game. The one thing we did have was control in midfield. What we lacked was cutting edge in the final 3rd, ability to put them under pressure with our passing and in the first half in particular, ability to shut down their transitions and defend effectively. Emery commented on this in his post-game presser. He took off Iwobi so the FB’s can be positioned further back in order to win possession back sooner off transitions, and it certainly looked from this view that that led to much less cohesive spells of possession for Wolves. They also stopped creating chances until we threw everyone forward in the last 10 odd minutes. Emery also commented on how well Wolves defended despite not being in a low block, very difficult to do, plus they seemed sharper and quicker to every loose ball. Arsenal’s passing was too slow and predictable. A bad day altogether. I’m not sure we need to read into it too much more than that. We are probably not as bad as this game showed and probably not as good as our winning run suggested.
Good questions:
1. What do we need to do?
Stop playing Aubameyang wide left. He either needs to be part of a front two, play by himself up top, or come off the bench. Playing wide left obliterates his talents – which are his speed and his natural desire to run behind defenders.
I would also drop Xhaka.
But there’s the rub. No one will ever buy Xhaka from Arsenal. He’s never been linked to another club and never will be because his limitations are so glaring. So, dropping him is essentially taking a bath on his transfer value and this club can’t afford to do that and Emery is tasked with not only keeping his value but repairing it.
The other thing I would do is not be married to this 4231. He needs to take a look at the team and play a formation and style of play which suits them. Right now he’s trying to fit this team into his way of playing and I’m not sure it’s working.
2. It’s NOT the positive part, it’s the ubiquitousness and wrongness.
I was a staunch defender of Denilson and still think he was a lot better than people remember. And same with Coquelin. I spent years defending them against the awful and stupid narratives that people launched at them time and again and still do to this day. Coquelin would be a revelation in this system and we would not be conceding so many chances. We seem to have some sort of amnesia about how good he was at snuffing out opposition counter attacks while also simultaneously ascribing that same behaviour to Torreira even though it very plainly isn’t true. Denilson was savaged for the one time he switched off against Wayne Rooney and for his “sideways” passing. How Xaka gets away with it every week is so maddening that as I sit here and talk this out my blood pressure goes up 30 points and my voice rises three octaves! You’re a doctor. Imagine if people all around you kept saying that smoking is good for patients and yet every week you were treating someone for emphysema and lung cancer?
3. Control of a game starts in midfield and all of the deficiencies that you point out are because we lacked someone dictating the match in midfield! Not only that but control is two-ways! In attack, the main central midfielder needs to do more than sprinkle balls all over the pitch, he needs to control the opposition midfielders, through his own movement and through his passing. Guardiola was the master at this, Fabregas does it still. Jorginho did it against Everton – without even really touching the ball. His movement alone occupied four Everton players on every play.
In defense, the midfielders need to swallow up those spaces and not allow the opposition to get the ball in to one on ones with Traore and Holding. Arsenal have already allowed 25 big chances and it’s because we have to keep chasing games, because our attacking formation is broken with Aubameyang wide, and because we still don’t have a true defensive midfielder. In the 2015/16 season, the Coquelin led Arsenal midfield, one in which we chased games relentlessly because we couldn’t score because players like Ramsey, Walcott, and Ozil had below-average finishing stats, ONLY ALLOWED 35 BIG CHANCES ALL SEASON. Sorry man, there goes my blood pressure again.
Look, it’s just highly frustrating that we play like this, that we really don’t dictate the tempo of games and that we don’t control the opposition’s attacks. And if I step back a second, I guess I’m frustrated because I have expectations that aren’t being met. I can own that.
I agree with most of this, except the smoking analogy 🙂
It does feel like he doesn’t know how to fit all these pieces together. You can hardly blame him; they’re not “his” players and they weren’t bought with any discernible plan in mind, plus he’s had 3 months or so to put it all together. It’s not there yet and I’m not really surprised. I’m also not really surprised that we’re “objectively worse” because when anyone anywhere is learning something new and different there is a period of time that it takes to master that, and that comes with some regression. He’s got more smoothing out than most given the almighty arse groove he’s replacing on the bench. I’m not panicking though because this period of investment into the development of new skills for the squad will eventually bear fruit. Meanwhile, the product on the pitch is inconsistent but at times extremely enjoyable. I’m having fun this season.
I think he was trying to put all this fire power on the pitch anticipating a tough nut to crack but Wolves destroyed that Auba-Kola left side. I don’t think that partnership sees daylight again soon after this game. He tried 3 different formations in that game. Doing whatever he can to win games while focusing on the longer term picture as much as possible. It’s not an easy job, and the competition is tougher than ever. I think it’s tremendous that we are where we are in the table given all that’s in play.
Torreira vs. Coquelin: I know what the numbers say. But what does your heart tell you?
More upside for Torriera than Coquelin???
A lot more. Torriera has the potential to be Kante. Coquelin was decent, but no better. He looked so good in part because he was next to Santi, who was exceptional.
Coquelin was the superior CDM by a landslide.
It’s very early to make that call. Torreira adds value from a ball progression point of view as well which Coquelin never really did. Also, Coquelin’s gaudy defensive stats didn’t buy him a new contract at Arsenal and ultimately landed him at Valencia. There’s no shame in playing for a club like that but it shows you he was not regarded as a top tier commodity by clubs around Europe. How do you reconcile that with your argument?
I think our midfield was not in control in first half and hence the need for Emery to bring his FB’s to drop deeper and an extra midfielder to have more control in possession. Also tactics does only half a job. There were a lot of incoherent passing and movement from our players. It was critical to avoid them especially in this game when the opposition sit back compact outnumbering our players and the gaps open only for a brief time.
“and start asking why we have to change the approach so often after the break?”
Very simple answer: Emery still doesn’t know his best team.
“Even the idea that Torreira is some kind of tigerish shield in midfield is well overstated.”
I don’t mind Xhaka and Mustafi getting smashed in comments because it’s their third season at the club and they’ve had plenty of time to prove themselves. But please, give Torreira a break. It’s his first season at the club, and he’s adapting to a new league and a new team. I remember a striker who couldn’t score in his first 8 games at Arsenal, and yet he turned out to be the greatest scorer Arsenal ever had. I agree that Torreira lacks consistency, but he’s playing in a team having a transition season. It’s a small sample but some of his performances are very promising. You highlighted the negatives, so I will emphasize the positives: Torreira led all midfielders in the Liverpool game by winning 80% of his duels, he had 13 ball recoveries against Leicester and made 6 interceptions against Fulham. I mean, those are Kanté-esque stats. Also, Torreira reads the game much better than Coquelin. He plays a more important role in creating chances than Coquelin. He’s the one who made the assist to the assist for Aubameyang’s big chance by picking out Bellerin on the right wing. Last but not least, Torreira has to work for 2, if not 3: he has to make up for Xhaka’s mistakes as well as the poor work rate of Ozil and Aubameyang. For me, Torreira is definitely an upgrade over Coquelin. Time will tell whether he’s as good as Gilberto Silva or Petit in their prime.
Great comment. We know this team better than Emery does. He has to go through a process with them and sometimes it won’t make sense to us.
Also in the Torreira’s defence, against Crystal Palace we looked dead and buried until his furious pressing upfield won us the free-kick that Xhaka scored the equaliser from. And let’s not forget his poise and switch of play to find Iwobi for Laca’s equaliser against Liverpool. He’s been very influential in some key moments.
He might not be the Great Wall of north London, but LT picks a pocket or two, has wonderful anticipation and adds a tempo and dynamism to our midfield. I feel far better with him there and love his terrier like qualities.
Xhaka on the other hand… (altho’ I could see the logic of wanting a left footer on the left to cross more frequently than the right footed Iwobi does).
I’m a happy traveller, enjoying the changes Unai’s making and looking forward to seeing who he brings in to realise his vision. That said, it would be comforting to see a game plan emerging for our defence.
Tim,
“We are objectively worse than we were under Wenger”.
If you compare premier league results this season and last season, excluding promoted teams, my back-of-envelope calculation is:
Wenger 17 points.
Emery 17 points.
Not to say points gained is everything but it depends on how you want to define objectively worse. Yesterday was the first game in a while when I felt we had got our Arsenal back!
In terms of defensive chances allowed and chances created and in terms of errors. The evidence says we are worse.
Not a fair comparison though – Wenger had Koscielny and Monreal available to him, two very consistent defenders. Even a half-a$$ing it Alexis Sanchez is more dangerous than Alex Iwobi. Ramsey had the season of his career last year, this year he’s benched. The style of play is different – we almost never cracked 60% possession last year, we were a team that didn’t know what style of football we wanted to play. And the schedule was not even close – we didn’t play City and Chelsea this early. When we played Liverpool it was embarrassing.
Such a great point on crossing, Tim. Shocking stats. Two of our better crossers in teams past, Walcott and Ox, no longer play for us. Neither does Giroud, one of the best headers in the league. I’m not mourning Giroud, though. Both of our main strikers are a league above him. Anyway if we can’t cross, teams will work ous out defensively, because we mostly work it in from the flanks, mainly on Bellerin’s side.
Respectfully dissent on Torreira, but agree on Guendouzi. We know that he can circulate a football, but the defensive side of his game is under-appreciated. And he’ll take one for the team to stop an attack when he has to.
Our midfield, including Xhaka, was outstanding against Liverpool. Being bad against Wolves doesn’t change that. Consistency is our problem in key areas, with key players. Ozil went from heavenly to ordinary within a week. I saw enough against Liverpool to give me hope that Xhaka understands his role better, but that brain doze was bad. Very bad.
He had another poor giveaway (I forget against whom) that led directly to a counter-attavking goal. If he doesn’t redress the balance between the bad and the good, Liverpool play and Wolves play, his longevity at Arsenal will come under question again.
Agree with all the points on our listless early play, and what early subs say. That’s on Emery. He’s seen enough to be able to fix it.
Great article mate, always on the money when it comes to the stats. But I am conflicted, I love Xhaka. I have no objectivity when it comes to him. Actually watching the game, I didn’t see his mistake. All I saw was his perfect/exquisite passes and creativity on the left – so many effective attacks coming from him there. What I will say is objective, though. I have some relevations some Arsenal fans may find alarming
1. Whoever our manager, however good our team, we ARE going to draw against teams. Wolves can be a good team. What was their result against City earlier this season? Is it the end of the world if we draw against this team? Really?
2. Can we be more generous with our praise, less excessive with the criticism
Xhaka sublime decisive goal against Newcastle – silence
Xhaka sublime decisve goal against Crystal Palace – silence/he gave away a “penalty”
Xhaka mistake against Wolves – expose after expose/conference on all of his deficiencies on arsenal fan media
3. They guys have played alot of games already in a short space of time. Doing well/OK – into the next round of Europa at canter, same with Carabao cup.
Be patient, have faith, too soon to portend doom and gloom.
+1 on #2. To extend on the theme, I also don’t see anyone here talking about Bernd Leno, the lone bright spot from yesterday. Early in the season the mutterings were he’s not playing because he’s not good enough… maybe it’s too early to say he’s proving people wrong but his timing as a sweeper, his bravery/reflexes plus his distribution were all outstanding to my eye and not for the first time this season.
Really, really good points doc.
#2 – I spoke at length both here and on the Arseblog podcast about how scoring a DFK is a low percentage shot and should be celebrated. I’m not surprised you didn’t notice. That’s another false narrative about Xhaka: that he’s somehow more criticized and underpraised than he should be.
Mate, it did notice. I have always said your writing is excellent and here your analysis of Xhaka is very balanced. Speaking of excellent articles of yours remember this one.
7amkickoff.com/index.php/2018/08/22/missing-a-big-chance/
You said strikers will miss chances and that we must accept this and keep giving them chances. This is the attitude we should have with all players. They all make mistakes. We are more forgiving when it comes to our favourites/strikers (me Xhaka, you Auba). But thinking about it, it is well within the capabilities of our attack to score two home goals against anyone…blame gets us nowhere..We could blame everyone except Leno..
So 7amkickoff, Orbinho, and that crab Scott, the one who sounds like he pounds helium before going on the Arsenal Vision Podcast. Whether we want to hear it or not, they’re all in agreement and pushing the panic button about the underlying numbers. And that was before the Wolves game.
It’s one thing for us to agree that Emery needs a season for his ideas to bed in, finding the collective patience to hold off some of the more strenuous criticism in today’s frantic media landscape is another. Gonna find some time this week to dig up match reviews from Klopp and Guardiola’s first seasons in England for comparison. To be fair to Emery’s team I doubt there’s a stat we’re aware of that the club isn’t. If anything they’re working with even more information and more parameters than are available to us – player conditioning, fitness and recovery levels, how well individual players train or respond to specific instructions, etc. That might be why some of our selections seem weird to us.
It was clear when the window shut that we hadn’t been ruthless enough with certain players. We’ve all seen enough of the guys who’ve been with us for 2 or more seasons to know what to expect. But I’m very confident Emery will keep improving our younger U23/24 players. I don’t care whose decision it was to sign Mustafi or Xhaka. I do care that the team we have in place now is ruthless enough to upgrade them as soon as humanly possible.
And Lucas Torreira, at 22 playing in a new league with less than 10 starts under his belt, is streets ahead of where most people expected him to be. Francis Coquelin wasn’t putting up 3.7 interceptions per game in his first season. Gonna stick to my mantra – this idea that we need Torreira to get the best out of Xhaka is backwards. Unless Xhaka is the one to improve we’ll end up hampering Torreira’s development. When Xhaka stepped over Kola’s pass I think he expected Torreira to be behind him, instead he was about 10 yards ahead of Xhaka. Lucas played in a fluid triangle at Sampdoria last season and will need much more time to adjust to his new position as Xhaka’s babysitter.
Torreira is 2 leagues above Francis Coquelin. He can tackle, he can read, he can pass long and short, he can tick-tock dictate, he can hit a dead ball, and he can sore the odd goal. Sometimes a player transmits his pure class unambiguously. Cesc did. Torreira does.
He is going to be a superstar in red and white, and he is the Arsenal player that I’m least worried about. And he’s a fighter. Not at all concerned. My only concern is burnout, because we don’t have anyone else like him. He’s got a slight physical quirk… one leg is longer than the other, so his running gait is a bit uneven. No one’s two limbs are exactly equal, but with Torreira, it’s pronounced. Does that make him susceptible to injury? We’ll see. But I think he’s awesome.
We allowed too many shots when Torreira wasn’t starting. We are allowing too many shots now that he is. His intro as a sub did change games, though, so I dont now…
I agree with Doc about Leno. It was clear from Game 1 that he was born to play the role of sweeper/keeper, and he is a good shot stopper too. With all due respect to our No 1 captain, Leno is our No 1 keeper.
I dunno… this post seemed to jaded, even for me.
Xhaka was pretty good last week against Liverpool. Yeah, he was bad this past game.
I loved Coquelin, and regretted us selling him. But Torreira is Coquelin with more upside when it comes to moving the ball around. I rarely, if ever, saw Coquelin maneuver out of a tough spot or turn a defender, I’ve already seen Torreira do that multiple times. Yeah, he’s not Kante… yet. Patience.
Bellerin, Iwobi and Holding are much better under Emery. Smith-Rowe looks good, Guendouzi… would he have even seen the field under Wenger? I predict in a few weeks we’ll see AMN in good form. Emery is doing well with the younger players.
Maybe stats-wise we’re behind last year’s team, but not on results. And keep in mind Koscielny when in form was one of the best CB’s in the world, Emery hasn’t had that available to him.
I think Emery has a line-up either/or problem… but the either/or is not Ozil or Ramsey, it’s Ozil or Aubameyang. The Fulham game where we went 4-4-2 with Welbeck and Ozil was out showed that we have the midfield base to play two up top. If Ozil starts in the #10 for a 4-2-3-1 then Auba needs to become a super-sub for that game, because he can’t hold up play like Lacazette.
We’re fine. We’re getting there. I see progress, but it’s never a straight-line learning curve, there’s going be bumps and steps backwards. We need a LB to match Bellerin, if only we had Mendy. If we had just that I’m pretty sure we’d be top 3.
Coquelin was an excellent dribbler. In 2015/16 he was 30/36 dribbles and was dispossessed just 19 times.
Per90 –
Dribbles; Torreira 0.6/0.8 – Coquelin 1.6/2
Dispossessed +Turnovers: T = 1.3 – C = 1.7
Key passes: T = 0.2 – C = 0.3
Shots: T = 0.3 – C = 0.4
Long balls: T = 2.9/4.7 – C = 3.1/4.2
Short passes: T= 60.8/66.5 – C = 51.3/56.8
Tackles: T = 2.5/3.2 – C = 3.9/5.1
INT: T = 2.3 – C = 4.2
Blocks: T = 1.2 – C = 1.9
Fouls: T = 1.6 – C = 1.3
Aerials: T = 0.7/1.4 – C = 1/1.9
The numbers suggest that Torreira isn’t better than Coquelin in attack and is a worse shield. Also, the team’s numbers suggest the exact same thing.
And according to my own “eye test” I don’t think Torreira is the sort of robust CDM that people paint him to be. Nor do I see him reading the games all that well.
Does that mean he will never be that player? No. This is just what I’m seeing now.
Does that mean that I “hate him” or some other nonsense? No. This is just what I’m seeing now.
And I reserve the right to change that opinion based on future data.
That’s an unfair comparison because you’ve taken stats from the 2015-16 season, which was arguably Coquelin’s best season.
I was curious about a more relevant comparison: how they are performing this season, and Torreira turned out to have better defensive stats than Coquelin.
From the Squawka comparison matrix (all stats per 90 minutes, Liga games for Coquelin, PL games for Torreira):
Total duels: Coq 6.55, Tor 6.8
Tackles won: Coq 0.96, Tor 1.36
Tackles made: Coq 1.93, Tor 2.49
Dispossess: Coq 0.96, Tor 0.34
Fouls committed: Coq 0.96, Tor 1.59
Fouls suffered: Coq 1,73, Tor 3.17
Intercept: Coq 1.73, Tor 2.27
Total blocks: Coq 0.96, Tor 1.25
Aerial duels won: Coq 3.28, Tor 2.38
Defense score: Coq 3.94, Tor 4.12
From the Whoscored comparison matrix (all stats per game since whoscored doesn’t seem to give the option of choosing per 90, Liga games for Coquelin, PL games for Torreira):
Tackles: Coq 1.3, Tor 1.8
Interceptions: Coq 1.1, Tor 1.7
Fouls: Coq 0.6, Tor 1.2
Fouled per game: Coq 1.1, Tor 2.3
Dispossessed: Coq 0.6, Tor 0.3
Dribbled past: Coq 0.5, Tor 0.5
Blocks: Coq –, Tor 0.3
Rating: Coq 6.67, Tor 6.80
My respect for Coquelin went a notch high after reading this. Still think Torriera will be able to match and potentially better Coq’s stats over his Arsenal career. So we can’t use the ‘AW never had a proper CDM since Viera’ statement then…
As much as Iwobi struggled in the first half, it was clear he as desperately needed in the second. Wolves had been schooled on keeping Bellerin from overlapping, and while we tried to get deeper with Kola, we weren’t very successful. With the wide avenues shut down, we reverted to Wenger – era flicks and tricks through the middle, and they were parked very squarely there. We needed someone who could beat people on the dribble to open up space, and we had no one. I was coming around to the idea that maybe we don’t need a speedy winger as much as we need reinforcements at LB and CB. Starting to doubt that assessment. A direct player on the wing would have helped us enormously today.
I echo the sentiments about Wolves’ play though – they were so compact that it was almost impenetrable. At one point Laca got a great cross in the box, but even taking only one touch, there was a wall of 4 defenders between him and the goal. Credit to the defending.
I fault Xhaka less for failing to receive the pass (which could easily have been a communication issue/he got fooled by a Wolves player) than I do failing to mark his man on the 1-2. That’s basic defending. You can’t hesitate or fail to get a body on that run.
The measure of Emery and this team is not going to be whether they can string together several good games. It’s how they respond to a series of sub-par performances, which is exactly the bumpy ride we should expect.
I actually thought Torreira’s midfield partner for Uruguay, Betancur, looked a better player than Torreira and a perfect replacement/improvement for Xhaka.
I also agree that both Xhaka and Mustafi were unlikely to have been bought by AW – who valued an ability to control the ball and keep possession under pressure above everything. I doubt either of these two would ever be able to play one touch football out of defence.
But Wenger used Xhaka consistently and we all know there were players who hardly got a sniff because he didn’t rate them.
As soon as I saw Xhaka have that brain fart on Sunday I felt the goal was inevitable. He will always have a costly mistake in him. I really wish he would go.
Both Xhaka and Mustafi look good by the numbers in terms of possession. Mustafi consistently rates as one of our highest performers on Whoscored because he wins tackles, wins aerials and passes at a high rate. He’s actually a decent passer out from the back, like Xhaka, and that was one reason I think we went out to get both players. The numbers don’t know that he consistently misses assignments, positions himself poorly and thus makes decisions that put his team under pressure. He also panics under pressure. Xhaka is much better in tight spaces but like I said he is prone to bad decisions with and without the ball. It’s frustrating because it’s not a lack of ability in either case, but both he and Xhaka suffer from this same sort of mental inconsistency, and that’s where I still think traditional scouting has merit particularly in a sport like football where lapses like that can be so costly. Can Emery iron these lapses out of them? I have hope that he can.
Didn’t know that about Torreira’s different leg lengths. It does explain his odd gait. He’s still a physical marvel. Most players with his low center of gravity use it for attacking/dribbling but the guy is wired for tackling and quickly blocking off passing lanes.
And yes huge credit to Leno – he’s been excellent, his reflexes are incredible. He may not be perfect on crosses but if he was he’d be a 50-60m pound keeper and we can’t afford those.
wow, tim. you really went ham; i don’t know if the young kids still say that. as a disclaimer, i didn’t see the game so i can’t talk about that. but i do want to talk about the arsenal midfield.
first, torreira. i think he’s been exciting and has become a fan favorite rather quickly. unfortunately, the qualities we think of when we consider torreira are not qualities of the world’s best cdms. defensive midfield is a cerebral position, not an all-action physical fighting position. it’s typically reserved for older players who use their years of experience to control the flow of tough games. many players transition to cdm late in their careers. torreira, at 22, is young and not a very experienced player, let alone and experienced cdm; there’s a reason he wears the #11 jersey. he needs a mentor, which is why i wanted a player like n’zonzi. even leandro paredes, who’s only slightly older, is a life-long cdm, not a left wing convert. torreira’s got a tough job and he’ll be horribly exposed against coaches who recognize him as low hanging fruit, like watford did.
not only that, but like claude has repeatedly said, torreira’s already at risk of burnout. he can’t do what n’golo kante does because he’s not the athlete that kante is. torreira has to be at full tilt, 100% just to keep up with bpl midfielders but that’s easy work for kante. claude’s right. torreira will burn out, if he doesn’t break down first.
next, semantics. many tend to think of a defensive midfielder as that hard, ball winner in the midfield. for me, that’s an 8 (box-to-box). in the invincibles, vieira was a ball winner but gilberto was the cdm. at liverpool, mascherano was a ball winner but xabi alonso was the cdm. at arsenal, it seems torreira is expected to be the ball winner and the cdm. sure, flamini did it in the ’07-’08 season but it’s not sustainable. an idea would be to put the more experienced xhaka at cdm but he’s not tactically sound enough. until arsenal get this balance right, they’re gonna struggle.
lastly, coquelin compared to torreira. i believe the comparison should be coquelin to xhaka. sure, coquelin played some cdm at arsenal but he was at his best when he employed as a ball winner just ahead of the more experienced arteta or cazorla. ironically, this is when arsenal were at their best as well. sure, wenger dropped ramsey to for cazorla but cazorla and coquelin switched positions, which gave arsenal better balance and made them far more formidable despite neither of those players replacing ramsey’s goals/assists; that shade was directed at claude. coquelin had two glaring weaknesses; he wasn’t a goal threat and his long ball was awful. ironically, these are the only two strengths of xhaka. contrarily, coquelin was very strong in every other department where xhaka is weak in every other department. too bad coquelin has become so popular at valencia.
Coquelin… why are we bringing up his name anyway? Wenger never played him and then the club sold him. Stupid? I thought so at the time. But isn’t this all crying over spilled milk? Torreira is no Coquelin… yeah, but so what? It’s like ruing the girl that we should have married. The new regime identified that we needed a young, aggressive defensive minded centre midfielder. Coquelin had already been shipped out by the old regime. Torreira seems to have been a bit of a bargain given what we paid and what he can do. Let’s move on.
I agree that it’s a rather pointless and mostly arbitrary comparison and Coquelin’s value was clearly not very high among European clubs or he wouldn’t have gone to cash-strapped Valencia.
I think a much more interesting comparison would be to players who play a similar role to him on other clubs in this league, such as another defensively oriented midfield player of small stature, N’Golo Kante for example.
According to Squawka in 1000+ minutes for Kante and just shy of 800 for Torreira, the Uruguayan has twice as many interceptions (10 vs 20), more aerials won (15 vs 21), one less successful tackle (13 vs 12) after attempting one less tackle (40 vs 39) AND completed just as many dribbles (4 vs. 5) while being dispossessed much less (10 vs 3).
Conclusion: Coquelin must be way better than N’Golo Kante 😂
relax, jack. no one is crying over coquelin. tim simply mentioned the fact that he hasn’t bought into the fanfare surrounding torreira and how the stats show the often maligned coquelin was far more productive than torreira.
I agree with every word!
Lucas Torreira gave up 9 inches in height and lot of poundage to Liverpool’s big money signing, Fabinho (also arrived this summer), and comprehensively outplayed and out-fought him in the middle of the park. Honestly, gooners, we got outstanding value in our 22 year old Uruguayan. Some players you see a little of, and you know. I feel that way about our little lion. It’s not scientific, but I’ve watched football long enough to back my fan judgement. Plus, I love players who act like give a sh!t about the crest, and show the fight for the cause that he does. Mesut is more talented, but this is why, to me, he’ll never be a favourite. Im a Vieira, Keown and Adams kind of guy, with Cesc being the only pure aesthete I feel that way about. I love what I see in Torreira.
Who we play him with going forward (you can take that anyway you like 🙂 ) is going to be a very important question. We also need cover. Speaking of which, Josh, appreciate the shout out. Im worried about burnout from the POV of the intensity at which he plays, and the fact that no one else in the squad brings what he brings to the midfield. Im not questioning his athleticism. Guendouzi is a scrapper, but he’s not at Torreira’s level yet.
Torreira is starting key games AND shoring up things in cup games when we need some security. That’s not sustainable. he’s going to half-dead by new year if we don’t rotate him more. And comparisons with Kante are not helpful. Even though the fabulous Franchman is playing a more attacking role for Chelsea under Sarri, he can’t use the ball as well as Torreira.
Why isn’t the Kante comp apt or helpful? I find it to be much more relevant than a comp to a DM who played in a different system with different players under a different manager and who is not even playing in the same league anymore. I don’t understand your last two sentences.
You hint that the poor recruitment over the last years of Wenger’s tenure wasn’t really his fault.
I grant that there is evidence to suggest that a lot of the poor buys (Xhaka, Mustafi, Gabriel, Elneny) were driven more by Gazidis than Wenger. However, even if this is true, you have to remember that such a situation – Gazidis forcing through player purchases – only came about because of Wenger’s pathological refusal to spend money on players, year after year, in a market where player prices kept increasing. Gazidis may have spent money on the wrong players – no surprise, he’s not a football man, he’s a CEO – but at least he was trying to do something.
I mean, remember the insanity of the summer we signed Petr Cech?
Whatever way you slice it, the situation the club finds itself in, is Wenger’s fault.