League cup and dropping Aaron Ramsey

Yesterday I got a chance to watch most of the second half against Brentford. In the Wenger era these matches were a chance to give valuable experience to players like Nico Yennaris, younger players coming up through the academy. Players who were going to be sold unless they really impressed. 

We had a few fun moments in those matches and especially in the reaction after them and I used to try to make time out of my work day to go see these matches at the local pub. Henri Lansbury’s 15th minute goal against Tottenham back in 2010 was a particularly memorable moment. Not so much the goal, but the fan reaction after: so many people wanted Lansbury to start for Arsenal after that.

Keeping with tradition, Emery started a couple of younger guys along with some of the more established players. The youth of Leno (not really young), Guendouzi (really raw), and Smith-Rowe, played along with Lichtsteiner, Monreal, and a bunch of players who are well established and could be starting. Actually, come to think of it, this was nothing like the Wenger-style League Cup teams because apart from Smith-Rowe, everyone who started is either on the first team or has already played 30+ matches for Arsenal.

And like the first team, this “second team” has problems when pressed. It’s boring of me to even mention it again so I won’t. I’ll just say “the process” and we can move along.

Of particular note was Guendouzi. I can’t say enough good about this player. He can turn out of trouble, which he did on multiple occasions, he can tackle, he can make brilliant passes, and he can and does dictate the tempo of the game. (Almost) Always wanting the ball and (almost) always trying to get by his man with a pass or a dibble, Guendouzi plays in the style of a player like Paul Pogba.

That said, I’m not blind to his faults. He gave away a silly foul at the top of the box which led to their goal – though I wonder if it was better for him to foul there or for Holding and Mustafi to foul a few seconds later and I also wonder how Leno go so utterly Bernd on the ensuing free kick. He’s prone to hanging on to the ball too long. And there were a few plays in which I saw him running into weird spaces, out of position in wide areas that didn’t need him. I suppose that’s why Emery brought on Torreira.

It’s going to be a real shame if Guendouzi doesn’t figure out where he’s supposed to be on the pitch, and figure it out quickly. I get the sense – based off the observation that Emery takes Guendouzi off at half time and keeps introducing Torreria to shore things up –  that Emery isn’t going to give him 38 games to figure this out, like Wenger did with so many players back in the days.

Iwobi is another player with this combination of fantastic skill and a propensity for making mistakes. His “pre-assist” for Welbeck’s second goal was sumptuous. Not in that it took great skill, it was a slide-rule pass, but for the fact that he saw that play developing and knew exactly who to pass it to (Monreal), rather than force a pass into Welbeck in the middle.

But then Iwobi reverted to last season form. As the match wore on and perhaps his fitness levels dropped, he started to make the same attacking move over and over again. It’s one where he feints to the right and then goes left. The defenders read it every time and it was quite frustrating to watch.

As an aside, have you been to the “Carabao Cup” web site? It’s utterly useless and just reminds me of what football coverage used to look like. Back in 1989. There’s not even any data on who scored the goals in these games. No match reports. No stats. Nothing. It’s almost like this cup, and hear me out on this, is a joke. It’s just a page for the sponsors. 

Arsenal advanced in this “sponsors cup” thanks to a Lacazette goal. The Frenchman came on and “put himself about” as we used to say (read: crashing into defenders, making a nuisance of himself, etc). And his goal was pure hard work mixed with a bit of skill as he bullied past the defender and popped the ball across the keeper. 

Laca should have been awarded a penalty as well. He was absolutely barged off the ball right as he was getting his shot off but the immortal Mike Dean had a good look at it, made some jazz hands, and waved it off. I was surprised at first because I feel like Dean would have loved the drama of sauntering over to the TV screen to review the call. I could see him then looking over at the camera, furrowing his brow, and then taking 10 minutes to walk up and out of the stadium, get on a bus, head to the PGMOL office, fixing a cup of tea (all with cameras in tow), and sitting down to a nice 30 minute exegesis given by Mike Riley of why this wasn’t a foul. Then packing everything up, heading back to the stadium, and finally, most dramatically, waving the whole thing off and signalling for Lacazette to get up.

I suppose it was just easier to pretend it never happened.

And finally, I see that Aaron Ramsey (or someone, somewhere) is saying that Aaron Ramsey isn’t going to sign for Arsenal and is leaving on a free this spring. And to quote my grandfather, who almost never cursed: No shit, Sherlock. 

I think that it’s time to just drop him. Or at least stop playing him in the Ozil role. I don’t say that out of some sense of burning hatred, he’s going to be a massive loss for the club both financially and footballistically. I merely say this out of a sense of reason and logic.

First, he’s occupying a primo space in the starting lineup because Emery has been deploying him as the #10. This has forced Ozil out wide where both he is less effective (because his game is predicated on finding great spaces on the pitch and occupying those spaces, creating imbalances in the opposition defense, and holes for his teammates to run into) and where the team is less effective (because it seems to concentrate all of the attack down the left side, forcing Ozil to either vacate his wide spot and leave his fullback exposed or to just stand on that side of the pitch and not be involved in the play).

econd, if he’s not going to re-sign for Arsenal, that’s a perfectly logical thing for him to do because he’s going to get a massive payout wherever he goes. So, I thank him for all of his years of service and the goals he scored in the FA Cup final and simply say that we have to give his playing time to young players who are going to stay with the club for a few more years. Arsenal aren’t going to sink a billion Pounds into the transfer market. That means that they have to develop players like Guendouzi, Smith-Rowe, Torreria, Iwobi, and Nketiah. And frankly, I think a lot of players on this team would jump at the chance to start wide right for Arsenal with Ozil in the middle. 

This is just (corporate) world we live in now. People like Ramsey have to make rational decisions and we have to accept them. That means the team also has to make rational decisions and playing Ramsey in the 10, which was irrational from the off, probably needs to stop. I’m no Ramsey hater. He’s one of the best players we have on this team. He is a huge loss from this midfield. But at some point you have to move on and it looks like that point is now. 

To quote Douglas Adams: so long, and thanks for all the fish.

Qq

94 comments

  1. Ramsey is a good player, a player I like, but Im a supporter of Arsenal FC. Not Ramsey FC. Looks like you’re rignt Tim… it’s probably time. And you know what? Id be fine with that. The contract tedium would be over.

    I saw Ornstein’s latest tweet (saying that they HAD agreed a 4 year deal initially), and your reaction on twitter that that didnt make any sense. Did they unagree? What happened? Puzzling.

    I see a lot of talk on twitter about freezing him out till he goes, but Emery has to make footballing decisions — do what would get him a result on the field. If Ramsey is professional and fits with his tactics, he should play. If his head isn’t in it, he shouldnt play. He should not be indulged like Alexis was in his awful final half-saeson with us.

    1. That’s the thing I don’t get either. The story that a contract was in place and agreed upon, until Arsenal decided to do a complete 180 for some reason (other than money because that seems to have been agreed) just seems bonkers, and gives me a sliver of hope this is nonsense.

  2. So Ramsey’s off. The Orn has all but confirmed it. Well, that’s the end of the Ramsey-or-Ozil conundrum at least. This current squad is too top-heavy (unsustainably so given that many similar-aged top AMs and strikers).

    As Tim Stillman said a few months ago, it’s not the end of the world. Yes, Ramsey is an incredible player but it’s not as if we don’t already have world-class attacking midfielders in our squad, let alone a proliferation of really decent up-and-coming talent to keep the positions competitive. I actually think it will make life easier for Emery; balancing this many players who expect a starting place must take its toll on tactical efficiency.

    Let’s do a Liverpool and sell him overseas (any guesses at a price tag? £35-£40m? Maybe Raul is a better negotiator than Ivan and we can aim for £50m+… just saying!). We can then splash the cash on a top-dollar defender with maybe a little on the side for proper wingers…

    1. That ship has sailed ( selling Ramsey) I’m afraid.
      Arsenal can’t sell him against his wishes to a club he doesn’t want to go.
      They can bench him and he can probably afford to sit out the rest of the season without taking a big hit to his future contract ,wherever that might be.

      Ramsey holds all the cards now.

  3. Welbeck scoring with his head and not a shoulder, and with his boot and not a shin guard was most impressive.

    I think we’ve seen also why Cech is the preferred keeper to Leno.

    I’m totally with you on Ramsey unless playing him gives us a better chance to win , which I haven’t seen much in a way of evidence for.
    Thanks for the memories and good luck.

  4. What about Welbeck? He has a year left on his current contract. If you had to choose one of either Rambo or Welbz to keep and the other to let go, who would you pick? On current form, I’d go with Danny.

    1. Ok, ok…Snow Patrol? They’re the only 90’s Irish band I could find touring right now whose guitarist/vocalist is a Manchester United fan.

      However, I wouldn’t think of them as a “hair band,” so maybe I’ll just have to keep guessing. Am I in the wrong decade?

      1. Not the guitarist for this outfit Bunburyist, but the guitar technician who I am (temporarily) replacing until the upcoming break on this particular tour. He’s the Man U fan. And he has no hair, at least not anymore. He curates and maintains a great collection of instruments, I have to say. Like Sir Alex did back in the day!

        1. No, I understood that you were the tech, but I was just curious about the band you were touring with.

  5. It reminds me of the Wilshere situation. There is an emotional attachment because we all remember how good he was, for a while. He was still our player of the season last year but I can’t remember a less inspiring or memorable POTS race, if I’m honest. I like Ramsey and I like him a lot. He cares about rhinos and he snuggles penguins, and he’s generally a nice chap who is good at football. I dislike the footballing version of Ramsey who tries to be Leo Messi. It doesn’t seem like he’s interested in playing a deeper midfield role and I don’t think he contributes enough as an attacking midfielder, particularly with other options available to do so. I wouldn’t be surprised if the contract offer was withdrawn based on what Emery has seen from Aaron thus far this season. He wants to be paid like the new Frank Lampard but he doesn’t have the record to back it up. Selling is logical, if emotionally difficult to accept. I wonder how the market will be for him? That will tell its own story.

  6. Yep, as he’s a Welshman playing for Arsenal my first born is kind of named after Ramsey but if it suits both parties then happy to part ways. Feels weird though being okay with one of our biggest talents, long-time servant, medal winner, injury hero, smart cookie and an undoubted grafter halfway out the door. Not sure what went wrong or if it never really went right.

    1. To me it’s an attitudinal issue. After his amazing glory season, I think he bought into himself a little too much and since then he’s looked like a fawn of 3 months trying to finish chances, can’t sort his legs out, can’t get to the ball fast enough, takes too long to shoot, puts it wide even when he has a clear sight… but there’s seemingly no recognition that that’s not the sort of player he should be. I think he fancies himself a Steven Gerrard but without the goals to back it up. I don’t think his free role for Wales and the Welsh captaincy helped matters, nor did Wenger’s prolonged indulgence of his positional tendencies.

      1. That’s an awfully uncharitable view. You dont have to like the contract situation, but come on, man. Of the 36 games he played last year, he was involved in 21 goals, and was by a margin our player of the year. He’s one of the main reasons that Arsene can say that he won trophies in the past four or so years.

        I’ve made my peace with Ramsey leaving. I’m over him. But let’s not try to rewrite history about his contribution. Gosh, Tim has shown several times (statistically and anecdotally) that the indulged freelancer argument is bunk.

        1. I must have missed those statistical and anecdotal arguments that prove that. If anything, I recall a recent piece looking at the Leicester season when we should’ve won the league and Aaron’s xG was -3.6 for the season, so there’s an argument there that he has been holding the team back with his wayward shooting. I can recognize that he’s been an immense part of Arsenal all these years while also acknowledging that the goals were too few for the chances he had to show his chops as a #10. He still did more than most but the role he wants is not commensurate with the reality of his ability in front of goal. I don’t think it’s re-writing any history to state that. I think it’s also worth considering the opportunity cost of persisting with him in that role versus what someone else might have been able to do with the same spaces and situations.

        2. Claude, I like you, and I’m not going to beat you up on a sad day for you and all Rambo-lovers among us.
          But…
          “and was by a margin our player of the year”

          It feels like as time passes, the legend of Ramsey’s 17-18 season grows.

          That he was our player of the year “by a margin” is simply not an objective fact (unless you’re referring to some fans’ voting numbers or something). Did he get voted our player of the season? Yes. Was he objectively our best player “by a margin”? I would dispute that, and I’m not sure there’s anything that could settle it one way or the other. Certainly it’s not like we’re talking Suarez at ‘Pool or title-winning Kante, when everyone can see they’d had a brilliant and influential season and massively contributed to their teams’ successes.

          Mostly, Ramsey played better last year than he had in ages, he was one of the few bright spots in a truly awful campaign, and he scored/assisted quite a few goals for a midfielder (though not in that many “crunch” moments). He still has all the infuriating weaknesses he’s had for ages, it’s still hard to find the best spot for him in a balanced lineup, and he’s hardly been setting things on fire so far this season (early days, of course).

          1. You must have missed the very first comment on this thread, my bro. Club over player every time. This will upset me less than the departure of Cesc or RVP.

            Look, smart folks can disagree on this, although I can’t recall if you and I have ever disagreed on Ramsey 🙂

            But Doc’s assessment to which I responded, though, was not one that he seemed put a lot a lot of considered thought into. I’ll refrain, out of kindness, from ascribing a description to it.

            The man’s contribution is what is is/was. He was our POTY, in the view of the majority of fans. Whether Pfo likes him, or what Pfo thinks in the face of the statistical facts, is neither here nor there.

        3. I am with Doc on this one. The POTS argument sounds a bit weak to me when we had a season where almost everyone under performed. I do like Ramsey but I think he is terribly inefficient in attack and his lack of discipline frequently negates his contribution in offense. However, I do appreciate his contribution in the cup finals. When it clicks for him, he’s a joy to watch and luckily for us, that happened during the FA cup wins. The league is a different animal though, requiring more consistency and discipline in that position that Ramsey usually brings. I think a more ruthless manager would have sold him a season ago and bought a more disciplined CM.

  7. It is a win-win situation to let Ramsey go. He has plateau his potential and when compared to others in his position, it will not be wrong to say that he is an average player. Any one of the bench players could produce as much if not better. We thank him for his service for the club and say good bye. It will make sense to sell him in January and it will not make any difference if he goes to any team, just get some money to buy another player.

  8. About the game yesterday….

    Leading scorer so far? Step forward, Danny Welbeck. Nuff respect. He came back very late, had virtually no pre-season, and has more goals than both of our elite forwards. And by the way, he out of contract in the summer too, but we’re not talking about that so much. What a mess Gazidis has left.

    I like Guendouzi, but the foul to concede the free kick was one of the most boneheaded fouls I can remember seeing, and it was a very consequential, momentum shifting one. A straight shove in the box just outside our area. Even Mike Dean (who turned down a couple of good penalty shouts for us) couldn’t mess it up. It’s why we saw Lacazette and not Nketiah. To Guendouzi’s credit, he did not let it inhibit him and he had a good game. There was a moment that Mohamed was Elnenying — buzzing busily around a player without actually doing anything, and Guendouzi nipped in, tackled the player and won the ball.

    Was happy to see Smith-Rowe playing. He brought a lot of running and energy, and troubled Brentford for a time. Unfortunately he also brought a lot of nerves, and his final ball was way off. On one occasion, Welbeck stood unmarked at the far post, and he had time to look up and pick him out with a cross. At the start of the half, we had many opportunities to put the game out of sight, and he saw a lot of the ball without affecting the outcome. He’s still a teenager, and the outing would have been a big part of his education.

    Could Leno have saved the fk? It wasnt in the corner for sure, but that wall was useless. Good fk, though. And good fightback by Brentford. Emery needed his big guns to see it though. Leno’s distribution and calm on the ball is excellent, and he played a role in our wonderful 2nd team goal.

  9. We all saw it coming. I stick to my prior opinion; we should have tried to sell him in the summer. Even if we were just getting a bucket of Gatorade in return, at least it’s something.

    That said, sometimes a loss like this can give the manager tactical clarity – Ramsey will not be around next year (maybe as soon as January), so no need to force him into the current line-up. I think while we lose a stellar talent the loss is neutralized by a more cohesive/balanced line-up.

  10. Has there even been a precedent before where a player like Ramsey (someone who is integral in a big team) has decided not to sign a contract and completely sidelined from that point on???

    1. Good luck selling that to Emery. He’s here to win games, not score political points. If Ramsey’s head is not in it, he won’t play. If he can be professional, buckle down and effective for us, he will. It’s that simple. There is however, a case for the coach planning for life without him, and therefore trying out options that don’t include him. Arsene never sidelined a player, even when it was clear that he was leaving. He even tried to shield Alexis from accusations that he wasn’t trying hard

      1. Whoa… Arsene never sidelined a player? You write, “even when…”, so you’re arguing Arsene never sidelined a player. Man, that is revisionist history. Arsene sidelined at least a dozen players I can think of off the top of my head, perfectly serviceable useful players who were stapled to the bench, never to see the light of day. Debuchey, anyone? He couldn’t have spelled Hector a game or two here and there?

        1. The context, Jack, is a contract rebel taking it to zero. Not any player ever. Debuchy wasnt an example of that.

  11. “He can and does dictate the tempo of the game (…) Guendouzi plays in the style of a player like Paul Pogba (…) He’s prone to hanging on to the ball too long.”
    I think Guendouzi is more of a pacesetter like Xavi or Pirlo. He can make assists like Pogba but he doesn’t have the shooting skills to be a prolific box-to-box midfielder. The one thing I agree is that Guendouzi sometimes has a tendency to take too many touches. There were times against Brentford when he took 5 touches while 3 touches would have been enough. Which is weird because Guendouzi grew up in France and French academies have specific training games where you can only take 3 touches maximum in order to improve your decision-making and reading of the game.

    1. I think that’s nerves. He’s got great touch. It’s not because of that. So, nerves. He’ll get better.

  12. Few more bits about Ramsey:

    Orn reports that “both” parties pulled out of an agreed deal. That is incredible if true (neither will confirm).

    I will assume that it’s true (because Orn is reporting). The cynical old man in me says “money”. Money made this happen. Money from Man U or Man City. Ramsey’s agent probably told City or United what Ramsey had agreed to with Arsenal and they said, “we will offer X more” and Arsenal realized they couldn’t compete and pulled out.

    I’m amending my prediction: I think we will see Ramsey in a Manchester uniform next season. There’s still a chance that United or City can be convinced to buy him in January but either way he will be a Manchester player.

    1. Where does Ornstein say “both” parties pulled out? I’m only seeing that he says Arsenal pulled out.

    2. Why would either Manchester team want him? He’s not about to displace Silva or KdB, and I doubt even Bernardo Silva at that, while Mourinho is notoriously intolerant of roving midfielders. Nor do I think Aaron would sign for a team where he’s going to be on the bench. If he is really intent on starting and playing this #10 role then he would fit best at a mid-tier PL side with money and aspirations for glory, like Everton. I think he is over-estimating his own worth.

      1. United under Woodward are boneheaded enough to sign him. Can’t see Pep signing him, but then again, if he did, I’d back Pep to transform him into some kind of footballing god. (Not that I think it’s possible, just that if anyone could do it it’s Pep, and if he actually wanted to sign him, it must be because he sees something I don’t.)

        But I predict ManU, Chelsea, or Liverpool way before City.

        1. United, after the stunning success of Alexis purchase, likely isnt going to come in for Ramsey. Also, have you looked at the number of bodies in United’s midfield? Can he and Pogba play together? Woodward is also keeping Jose on a financial leash.

          Chelsea just bought Kovacic, a similar player, who hasnt played much, but he’s probably be a better fit there.

          Liverpool’s midfield also has a LOT of bodies, with Ox to come back, and Fabinho and Keita barely getting a kick so far.

          Spain or Italy, is my guess.

    3. Seems highly unlikely.

      Ramsey is not better than DeBruyne (who is younger) or Silva in the attacking midfield roles and arguably only slightly better than Gundogan and Bernardo Silva (plus older than those two). He’s not displacing Fernandinho. They’ve got Foden who they’re really high on. Ramsey’s not a possession-first player. Ramsey would have to know if he went there he’d be a highly paid back-up.

      United is a roster disaster. I’m sure the new manager will want a signature signing but how do you pair Ramsey and Pogba? You don’t. And let’s keep in mind Ramsey and Alexis strongly disliked each other, to the point where some games they didn’t pass to each other. Granted, I would bet Alexis is sold to PSG in January anyway.

      I think Ramsey would be a Chelsea target; Jorginho & Kante in behind let’s him roam all over in the midfield 3. I don’t think they’re going to be able to keep Kovacic past the loan and Barkley has been a flop. Ramsey would have the energy for Sarri’s pressing. To me that fits better.

      1. yeah, good points. I know ‘Pool are stocked, but that’s the other place where he’d fit in nicely.

  13. Ramsey is best as a central midfielder playing box-to-box, not as a player starting from a forward position, as Emery seems to have him these days. Get him chasing from the back, and he has the potential to make those devastatingly well-timed runs into the box, but right now he just looks a bit lost in this new system, which I also don’t think takes advantage of his engine.

    I agree with Tim. I could very well see him playing for United next season. He grew up a United fan, fwiw.

    It’s too bad. I had envisaged him being an Arsenal captain one day, and he was my favorite player at Arsenal for years.

    Ah well, we move on. I have thought for the last month or so that we can only play Ozil or Ramsey, not both, so maybe this (at some point) helps us settle on a system that works for Emery.

      1. Here’s the weird thing: if this is really the Arsenal hierarchy pulling out of a deal that had been agreed in principle, and not Ramsey’s people pulling out because they got a better deal elsewhere (and then the board doing the “we never wanted you anyway,” thing), then…

        WHY??

        I’m betting it’s Ivan leaving and Raul (with Sven’s advice) suddenly being in charge. And I’m hoping he’s got something better up his sleeve where the money could be spent instead.

        1. To me this is about Emery‘s assessment of the Player, And his value to the team. At least, I very much hope so.

          1. obviously Emery’s had his say–it would be crazy for Raul, newly appointed, to make this call against the protests of his manager (sorry, “head coach”–barf). but it’s also crazy that Emery would go from wanting Ramsey to be a key player for him (and he’s started centrally in almost all the bigger games so far this season, with Ozil shunted out to the right), to deciding he’s not worth it based on the assessment of like 5 games.
            I think Emery could have had a slight shift in viewpoint based on what he’s seen, but not a 180 degree turn. something else has had to have changed. Either Tim’s right that it’s Ramsey’s people getting him a better deal elsewhere after we had a verbal agreement, and the club being disgusted by that and pulling out completely, or it’s Ivan going and Raul (and Sven, and probably Emery) not rating Ramsey as highly as did the old regime.

    1. Maybe…Pogba ditches in January, and then we get actual money for Ramsey? Ah, who am I kidding. Pogba’s not leaving. Mourinho will be long gone by then!

      1. Please don’t jinx it. Jose must stay as long as possible. It’s too much fun watching the train wreck! 🙂

  14. I can see Ramsey going to a team like Everton. They have the financial muscle to pay him a ton of money (especially if they get him on a free) and he could go and become a leader on that team. They can also add on incentives for him to get them to Europe which is surely what Moshiri would want from them. With Liverpool playing doing so well, the pressure is on Everton’s hierarchy to up their game.

    1. he’s buds with Theo too. But he’s got too high an opinion of himself to stoop that low, I reckon. he’ll have a better offer elsewhere, even if it’s not for a guaranteed starting spot.

  15. This is a tough one, as I like Ramsey. He’s a link to the successful era, and at times has been very good for both Arsenal and Wales. But recently those times haven’t been often enough to justify trying to keep him at any cost. And he, Ozil and two center forwards don’t all fit together.
    But it is frustrating that again we’re getting screwed in the contract/resale front.

  16. Sorry, I still don’t play Ozil in the middle. I put three physical shithouses in the middle and dominate that area of the pitch physically. Or just, you know, three hard working midfielders. Or, you know, Torreira, Xhaka and Guendouzi. Graft over talent. I don’t know. Maybe it works? Who knows.

    1. I love Ozil in the middle, but I don’t necessarily disagree. thing is (as I’ve said many, many times), if you play 4-3-3 instead of 4-2-3-1, a player like Ozil has the freedom and space to start from the wing and float into the middle for the ball. in the 4-2-3-1, not so much. with Ramsey leaving, either you put Ozil back in the middle, or you put 3 proper midfielders in the middle. our current starting lineup is doing neither.

  17. Off topic, but anyone else worried that our luck’s going to run out against Watford on Saturday? We’ve managed to win while looking labored (in first halves especially), and have gotten lucky on opposition chances and our own. But Watford are very much in form in the league, and I’m not sure we’ll get away with the slips and sloppiness. The slips and slops.

    It’s too bad we sold Cohesion. We could really use a player like him these days.

    1. This is exactly what’s been on my mind. If we trot out that same crowded attack, and Musti does his usual hijinx, I think we are in trouble. This is the first real test for Emery. The other games have either been against top teams or bottom dwellers – Everton aside.

      Any chance the Ramsey leak was timed for just this reason? Emery has cover to change the lineup. Ramsey sits, Ozil moves to 10 and Mkhi plays on the right. Suddenly there is space, movement and our attacking potential is unlocked. Did you see how I went from anxiety to ecstasy in one paragraph? Ahh to be a Gooner.

      1. Watford is a good team this season. Hard working, physical, quick and organized. They can be had if you break through their press, and if you keep the passing clean they don’t create much from open play because they lack a playmaker. Holevas, the RB, is their best dead ball technician, which says something. I see this going similarly to our prior games; tight first half followed by goals in the second as their chasers tire and holes begin to appear, but it’s all about avoiding the transitions especially in our own half.

        1. Teams don’t need a playmaker to carve us open like a turkey on thxgiving. Their is also our propensity to make mistakes and our generosity in gifting chances to our opponents. We will concede for sure. It’s going to be a matter of whether we can outscore them.

  18. The one thing I still can’t get my head around in connection with transfers is the whole, “We need to sell x to get something for him instead of letting him leave ‘on a free.'”

    If we sign a player for 4 years for $x, and he plays for us for 4 years, then we both have received the value of our bargain. Who cares if he signs for us in year 5? If he does, then great. If he doesn’t, then safe travels.

    Now the argument is a bit different with Ramsey, since one can make the credible argument that the team might play better without him on the pitch. But fundamentally, if his effect on the team balance was not an issue, we should play Ramsey every game for 90 minutes from now until the end of the season.

    I think teams would begin to regain a measure of initiative in the player transfer arena if they refused to pay this “4 year contract ACTUALLY means 2.5 years” game with players and their agents.

    1. It’s called destroying value of equity.

      Or leaving money on the table.

      Take your pick.

      No well-run business does that.

      1. Claude, actually, neither of those explanatory nuggets makes much business sense.

        The initial contract cost is a sunk cost. True, the sell-on value (if there is any) can be thought of as a residual of sorts, but , if you employ that reasoning, the four-year contract the team inked in my example doesn’t really last for a term of four years. It’s much more like a 2.5 or 3 year contract with a residual claim. I’d think that would implicate a contract value discount that I don’t think is actually utilized in practice.

        It most certainly, for a myriad reasons, is not “destroying the value of equity”…although, I will assume you are using the term “equity” in a purely colloquial sense.

        Anyway, it’s just my pet peeve..

    2. In the purest sense, you are right. At the bottom of the housing market, I was depressed about how much money I had “lost” and one friend told me “you only lose money if you sell”. I didn’t sell, my house bounced back, and I didn’t lose any money. However, now my house is worth more. If I don’t sell now, I might regret that I didn’t make any money off my house.

      This analogy fails because Ramsey is a rental property but we are essentially trying to sublet him.

      1. Rule #1: Never try to time the market.
        Rule #2: Rule #1 applies to all markets.

        Now if only I had tonight’s lotto numbers… 🙂

    3. It would be interesting to model this – if someone has not already done so! I think the observed behavior of football clubs is partially explained by the fact that the “asset value” changes throughout the contract duration, and also by the Bosman rule.

      A club contracts a player for 4 years at USD25m, and after 2.5 years perceives that other clubs are willing to pay more than a certain amount (for the sake of argument let’s say USD50m) to break the contract. This club would be incentivized to cash in and make a profit before trading is prohibited under Bosman rules. If the club values the player higher than the market does then the incentive would be to extend the contract. Letting the contract run out under these circumstances would be to lose the opportunity to profit from, or extend the duration of ownership of the appreciating asset.

  19. Ramsey has been the oldest part of the “new era” if he goes, then it’s a new era..his departure only makes space for a true winger and then we’re playing balanced football again.. don’t forget wengercatabra!! The curse of the departed one!!

  20. Some clear-eyed analysis from Arseblog on the Ramsey situation (I wont link to it here) Frankly, much of the reaction missed the big and worrying questions. This, from Ornstein, deserves serious Q&A 👇🏽

    “The four-year agreement was in place but before a final contract was drawn up, Arsenal pulled out. When contacted by BBC Sport, neither party would say why the deal collapsed.”

    He also tweeted:
    “But #AFC withdrew offer, are now not in a position to proceed….”

    Back to my Q at the start, what does that mean?

    Leave aside for a moment what we think about the player, and the pub talk about baby animals in the woods 😉 No business should be destroying asset value (especially when we gave Emery a cr@p budget last summer), but that is exactly what we have decided to do in this case. Leave aside too the fact that Ivan and Arsene should have been in contract talks with 2 years left on his contract (or sold him)… why didn’t we make a firm decision to sell him in the summer, if he doesn’t sign by a certain time?

    I know it’s his choice to go or stay, but if a club wants to shift a valuable asset in his prime years, it can. Let’s say Ramsey was valued at 40m in the last year of his contract. We have left on the table, a fee representing 80% of Emery’s reported summer budget was. Even if you want to quibble about the fee, it’s still big money, That is bad asset management. And look, fans can get behind player departures (whether it be Ramsey, Ozil or anyone) if they understand that the club is acting in a financially rational manner.

    Could be we’re drawing a line in the sand, and Ozil is the last of the contracts gained by rebels backing the club into a corner (although the fact that an agreement had been reached negates this). Maybe we’ll have more decisiveness in the market, for both buying and selling.

    Maybe we made a late calculation or came to a late realisation that even if he leaves for free, we’ll be making a big saving on wages. But big signings today demand top dollar. Laca is on 200k, Auba is on not far behind, and Ramsey is on 110k. What did he do? Double his money, or get par with Laca? Does not being in a position to proceed mean that we’re instituting something of a salary cap? A soft salary cap? Bellerin is also on 6 figures. To be fair, though 9and to argue against myself), we signed Torreira for pay that is not much higher than Jenkinson’s.

    It’s a disappointing way for a valued senior player to leave the club. You dont have to like Ramsey to feel that agreeing and then yanking a contract was harsh. Not even Nasri and Van Persie, who behaved worse than Ramsey, were treated in that manner.

    Meanwhile Jenkinson, who is making twice as much as Rob Holding, is still at the wage bill. At least we can say that we’re keeping part of the British core, no?

    1. End product and productivity of the player does not match the profile of the club and his wage demands are simply unjustified.

      1. “End product and productivity of the player does not match the profile of the club…”

        Im not seeing a correlation between end product and productivity with profile. What does profile of the club even mean in this context?

        And by that logic, is our 350k a week wage earner worth it?

        1. He’s not.
          Ozil signing was as much about saving face and declaring Arsenal aren’t the sinking ship all rats are abandoning , as about his worth to the club.

          Sanchez, Ox and Ozil leaving at the same time would’ve been a PR disaster for Wenger.

        2. Profile of the club refers to what we are, a top club in North London.

          While Ozil may not be a good return on investment, the club is not looking to play the player higher in my books because he is not worth the trouble. Tom is right, the club was trying to save face.

          If Ramsey were adequate then AW should never have bought Ozil. As a box to box midfielder how well did Ramsey interpret the role ? Right now as a #10 how well does he influence the game? Those are the pertinent questions.

    1. Great stuff on the numbers yet again. They confirm the dysfunction of the front four, something that we can see clearly with our own eyes without the benefit of stats. Echoes what Ive been arguing over several threads about Iwobi and Mhki. Picked Iwobi to start last Sunday (surprised he didnt), and Mhki to play wide right regularly. The questions for me are whether Emery’s system can work with a single pivot, and whether he should push Auba up to play in the front 2, or make a gutsy call in picking one. By his own admission and because he’s our leadeing goalscorer, Welbeck is pushing for a start, on merit.

      I wonder if Emery used the stretch of games that he considered “winnable” to cautiously experiment. To see the extent to which, if you have goalscorers on the pitch, you will win games.

      1. Yes, Claude – I too have been pondering over what Emery is trying to accomplish during this period, too. Does he have plan at all? Is he just throwing things against the wall to see what sticks? I am very interested to see his selection for tomorrow.
        Starting to think he has 2 different sides that he likes to choose, depending on the opponent. 1) Top 6/strong pressing teams – Mkhi and or Iwobi start, and these players are favored over Ozil (and possibly Ramsey) for their willingness to track back and provide winger skills/play against more athletic opponents. 2) mid-lower table opponents whom we can simply outscore. Throw all of the firepower at them possible and let our attackers figure it out, one way or another. It’s his way of keeping the peace with Ramsey and Ozil.

        I expect he will drop either Ozil or Ramsey tomorrow, to insert Iwobi or Mkhi. Addition by subtraction. That’s just my guess.

  21. Another thing people seem not to mention is that Ramsey is not worth $40m, yes we think he should be but were there suitors in the summer offering that amount?

    Oxlade went for 35m because he could dribble, whose going to buy Ramsey simply because he has a ‘great engine’? If he’s not good enough for Arsenal then any other top 6 club signing him even on a free are just throwing money down the drain.

    The question is what does Ramsey specialize in? scoring FA cup goals? That’s a crazy marketing pitch!

  22. After 45 minutes, it’s an even game but Arsenal should be 1-0 up. Cech’s injury is a worry, particularly from their set pieces.

  23. At 70′, for me this has 0-0 written all over it. Actually. I think 0-0 would represent a bit of an escape for us.

    Everything we do up front just looks sloppy, disconnected, toothless.

    Everything we do at the back seems desperate.

  24. Watford look better than us in almost every respect, except perhaps (wasted) possession. Ref also loves them. Ugh.

  25. Seven on the bounce. The cannon marches on. The way in which Emery has ground out results after losing the 2 opening games has been impressive. But but but. There have been games in which we played well and lost, so Im not going to complain if we play like we did fora good stretch of the 2nd half and win.

    In a curious way, the Ramsey/Iwobi sub brought out good and bad. Iwobi added more incisiveness, and had a hand, indirectly, in both goals. He’s staking a claim to be our pre-assist king. But that sub also coincided with our worst passage of play. You could drive a bus through that midfield. Watford successfully nullified/bullied Torreira, and Xhaka was Xhaka, giving the ball away several times. Ozil? Don’t even ask. Well taken goal by him, though.

    Watford outplayed us with alarming ease in the period between the sub and first goal, and it was mainly due to a lack of control in the middle of the park. The goal could not have come at a better time… the second killed them off.

    As noted before, if you have our attacking prowess, you’ll score. But Emery badly needs a midfield fix in January.

    Ramsey visibly unhappy at the sub, but you have to respect a coach who doesn’t do sentiment. Still, given the unhappy situation between him and club, he’ll probably have viewed being subbed after taking the armband asa mini-humiliation. It wouldnt bother the coach, and correctly so… he has games to win. But I wish that it was ending a bit more amicably between the club, and one of the nicer guys in the squad.

    Leno? He has his chance. let’s see how he does. He is, though, a far better and calmer distributor than Cech.

    1. I swear I didn’t read this before posting mine. Beware the end-times, we seem to agree alarmingly closely on what happened in this game! 🙂

  26. It was seat of your pants stuff at the back at times, reminiscent of the Everton match, but there were also green shoots of progress. The play out from the back still seldom results in meaningful forward momentum, but the passing angles are there more consistently open and the ball moves with greater zip and confidence than it did before. There were fewer heart in mouth moments when we had the ball back there. I also thought Hector Bellerin was physically more competitive in this match than prior games, even though Watford targeted him trying to take advantage of his lack of height by lofting pass after pass in his direction, while Rob Holding had a good game. Mesut Ozil continues to take strides forward in his work off the ball as well, although he is still a little too passive at times. Most of all, I think we saw that we have two good keepers in this team and when was the last time we could say that? Cech saved another goal with his brave block on Kabasele’s header from a daft FK conceded by Mustafi, then Leno showed great reflexes to save Watford’s best chance from Deeney at point blank range following a simila situation and showcased calmness in possession.

    At the other end, the story is similar. A work in progress, but with some signs of life. The press is energetic and did create a terrific chance today but the attack overall is suffering from a lack of competitiveness in the challenge, most obviously from Aubameyang, who really doesn’t seem to fancy mixing it in the duels. When receiving the ball in tight spaces he loses out and gets bullied too easily, then after a giveaway he seldom makes the extra effort to atone for the miscue. Lacazette’s all action style is a joy to behold, but besides him nobody really had a good game in an attacking sense and even he missed a sitter and a couple of other good chances. I do credit his industry for the opener as his presence forced Cathcart into the awkward attempted clearance that resulted in the goal.

    Most fascinating of all, Aaron Ramsey started despite the recent contractual issues, suggesting it was not primarily driven by Emery’s evaluation of him, but was then removed as the first change in the game. His removal both coincided with Watford’s best spell in the game as we lost control on midfield as well as allowing Arsenal to be more direct and incisive with Iwobi’s powerful runs. Emery seems to have gambled that Arsenal’s greater quality would decide an open game like that and so it proved, just. The attack does seem better balanced without him but it does seem like he helps us control the flow of the game.

  27. When did Arsenal have a seven game winning streak last I wonder.

    Spare a thought for poor Mourinho and his underfunded Man U squad 😂

    1. To be fair to him, he’s working wonders at a club that just doesn’t have the financial muscle to compete with the bigger teams.

      1. Not to mention the referee conspiracy against him.

        Plus, one of his players is a mole for the PGMOLE. He just hasn’t figured out who yet.

  28. I hope Manchester United keep mourinho…he’s a good coach..he just needs time..2 seasons maybe or at least until the end of this season

  29. Midfield still needs a lot of work. Or maybe it’s just a matter of having more quality players there. We got lucky today with the first goal. Watford was better than us until at point.

    Mustafi needs to be benched when Socrates comes back. He is an accident waiting to happen.

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