Missing a big chance

35 comments

1. I’m curious where Suarez, Ronaldo and Messi fit in terms of missed opportunities. Is the difference between those three and the rest a higher conversion rate?

   “He also tended to score really weird, one-touch, tip of toe, acute angle, front post, flicks.” I’ve seen and experienced this phenomenon first hand – when a player has a moment, however brief, to consider or contemplate his shot or finish, he fluffs it. When it’s down to reaction and instinct it can be brilliant, like Giroud’s scorpion kick. The difference is that micro-second of thought. It may be a mental toughness thing – does the game slow down for a player in that moment, does the net suddenly appear to be 2x larger, does the heart rate stay steady…

   It’s why sadly Danny Welbeck will never be a great striker. All the physical tools and right attitude, but never seems to have that moment of calmness when the chance is beckoning.

   1. Last three years:
      Player Goals MBC
      Suarez 94 75
      Cron 86 65
      Messi 97 45

      1. Yowza. Messi looks really efficient by that stat.

         1. Looks? 😳

            In the same way that Zoe Saldana seems to be good looking?

            Messi is a freak of history, one of the greatest players ever to lace up football boots. If that is the conversion rate of an all time great, it only serves to underscore the fact that missing chances is far from an unusual occurrence.

            1. Yep, missing chances is literally just what happens to players who play up front and aren’t named Messi.

            2. Ok, a little understated 🙂
               But while I’m not particularly a CR7 fan, I don’t have an issue with acknowledging that he’s one of the better players in recent years. And looking at this stat, Messi is a long way ahead of him.

            3. “In the same way that Zoe Saldana seems to be good looking?”

               Something tells me Claude’s missed big chances to score with Zoe Saldana would be near 0% then?

            4. When it comes to that kind of scoring, Tom, I’m a lumbering 39 year old centre back playing in the Third Division. My creaky knees can even get me near the opposition goal, much less score

         2. Messi is ridiculous by almost every measure.

            1. This is one of my favorite football articles, a little long in the tooth now but still relevant: “Leo Messi Is Impossible”

               https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lionel-messi-is-impossible/

      2. Messi is sooo overrated.

2. I like this post. When stats like big chances missed are presented in a vacuum it can be so misleading; glad to see you flying the flag for context based analysis on this issue, a bit like you did with Alexis’ lost possession stats a year ago when that was the bug that crawled up everyone’s backside.

   And… just a good old piece of common sense to add here: professional footballers the world over convert less than half of their big chances, based on these numbers. But, the average football fan (and pundit) acts like it should be 100%, especially when a game is close. It doesn’t work like that. You just notice it more when your team really needs that goal.

   1. Yes.
      Yes.
      And yes.

      1. Lies.
         Damned lies…and statistics.

3. Fascinating stuff, and an interesting stat about which many football fans know so little.

   Curious about two players… Eduardo, who it seemed to me was our most efficient striker of recent times. And Wayne Rooney, who it seemed to me was one of the league’s most efficient strikers of recent times. All I have to go on is the evidence of my eyes. Can seem to find tabs on or dont know how to tabulate Eduardo…

   Rooney has missed 54 big chances in creating 65 for others, and scoring 208 goals in 491 appearances. (I’ve often wondered why Arsene, in going after a promising youngster at Everton, went instead for Francis Jeffers). Walcott, far less productive than Rooney, has missed 66. Harry Kane, far more productive than Theo, leads everyone with 69 mbc’s.

   Sterling has missed 45 in his short career. He seems to get vital goals against us, but he drives my Man City fan friends crazy.

   Another question on big chances concern intangibles like defenders rapidly closing you down and forcing you to hurry the shot, a player getting in your face, the goalkeeper going to ground (and therefor causing you to sky it instead of place it, a foul/tug missed by the ref etc. How do these factor in? A chance may be deemed a bc, but is actually from a more acute angle…does it count the same as a big shot from a central position. Theo played most of his career on the wing

   1. Big chances by definition rarely have a player closing you down. These are 1-v-1 situations with the keeper, open goal chances, and shots from extremely close.

      1. Thanks. That’s helpful. Wasn’t fully aware of how they’re assessed.

4. Worth noting that big chances stats only go back to about 2010, so goals comparisons shouldn’t go back further.

5. The stat does help explain Wenger’s incredible consistency.

   We had the longest-serving manager, that manager had a singular attacking philosophy, applied it over nearly 20 years, and because we were so far ahead of the curve in terms of shot discipline, we were able to compete with teams that spent much more money than us even though our players weren’t always WC.

   Reminds me of another weird/curious stats thing: looking at whoscored’s World Cup stats page, France weren’t a top 5 team in any of the regular categories you’d expect – possession, passing accuracy, shots per game, shots on target per game, even tackles and interceptions per game.

   But by averaging 2 goals a game (same as Russia, only bettered by Belgium with 2.3), France showed that modern football is about efficiency and being hyper-organised defensively.

   Not all big chances or big chances missed are equal. If you score a big chance before the opposition does, you have the luxury of not needing to create more.

   So Sergio Aguero might have missed the most big chances in the Premier League era, but if you asked which player was most efficient about scoring the first big chance that came his way in a game, it would probably be him. Which would mean most of his big missed chances don’t hurt the team as much

   Wonder if 7am or some other stats guru has some insight into efficiency of big chances scored/missed, and what the game situation was at the time?

   1. “So Sergio Aguero might have missed the most big chances in the Premier League era, but if you asked which player was most efficient about scoring the first big chance that came his way in a game, it would probably be him. Which would mean most of his big missed chances don’t hurt the team as much.”

      This is pure speculation, and a ridiculous assumption besides. You’re positing that different strikers put away big chances at different rates depending on what the score is? That would presume that they have some sort of way to “turn on” when they really want to score with their big chances, AND it presumes that certain strikers are better at scoring when they really have to. Sorry but that’s crazy. A striker always wants to score, no matter the scoreline, and there is no reason to think that the percentages of the physics of striking a ball and getting it through the obstacles in the way would change because of the game context.

      1. Yes, it’s speculation based on my eye test. It’s not an assumption or a definitive assertion. You think it’s ‘crazy’ to posit that certain strikers are better at scoring when they really have to?

         Well, bag me up and send me to the psych ward.

         In big league games against top 6 teams, Aguero has probably put away a bigger % of the 1st or 2nd big chance that comes his way in those games, compared to the Arsenal forwards in the most misses category – Adebayor, Walcott and Giroud (maybe not RVP, who was good in big games as I recall).

         And for all his faults, I think Alexis would rank high in a list of players who put away a decent % of what Tim refers to as those “golden chances”, or what other people call the “go ahead goal”. Especially in his first couple of seasons when he scored against every single Premier League team he faced, big or small (a pretty rare achievement). Isn’t that what makes some players “big game players”?

         I know “big chances” are a newer category of stat, but it’s odd that the Premier League has a stat for big chances missed – but not big chances scored. Does 7amkickoff or anyone else know why that is?

      2. But that’s where the intangible measure of composure and percentage finishing should count. For instance a penalty kick should be simple to score, but some players mess it up, this is an example of a big chance and it could come at a time a team is chasing the game. True every striker wants to score, but the psychological weight of what the team is trying to achieve surely surfaces in the mind of the striker and how he responds is vital.
         Kenedy of Newcastle missed a penalty in their first match and they could have won the game if he scored. The penalty was awarded in the final moments of the game and if he were a more clinical player he would probably be a regular in his original club which is Chelsea.

         1. I don’t think it’s a reasonable assumption that different players have different levels of composure depending on the score or situation in front of goal. Some players are naturally more composed than others (see: Messi, Lionel), but we have to assume that this is an intrinsic, un-modifiable trait or else we would see a player’s conversion percentage steadily increase with more practice. In reality, it seldom does once a player reaches a certain age or experience level. This is a bit like performance on a standardized exam. Studying only helps so much, and different people plateau at different levels for unknown reasons. When the ball comes at you in those situations, you have a split second to react. The frontal lobe does not get involved. The player shapes to take that shot in the way that his pattern recognition and muscle memory tells him to in that instant, and the millions of variables of physics that happen after the ball is struck take over after that. So tell me, how does a player ratchet up his level of composure in that moment, especially if “composure” is constant through time?

            Penalties are a little different, there is more time to think about it and let it “get into your head.” You can think about the tape you watched on that GK, or the pain you have where someone stepped on your shooting foot, or the time you missed your last penalty and which way you’re going to place it. I wouldn’t conflate that with the calculus that happens from chances that come in open play or from indirect free kicks.

            1. I played a little football, though unprofessionally so I will say this, there are players who hit the ball based on muscle memory and there are players who possess the ability to place the ball i.e to choose a spot and send the ball to the chosen spot with accuracy and precision.

               It’s a big deal and it’s a part of a player’s skill, think David Beckham, Thierry Henry and Roberto Carlos to mention a few retired players. Lots of players shoot with precision and this is common with strikers, Lacazette has this skill too, and it is more of possessing a higher percentage of shooting accuracy based on body angles and position, and measured strikes.

               Aubameyang missed some sitters because all players have their days when they are not on form.

            2. When I mention muscle memory, that includes all that stuff that all those great players knew how to do. It’s not that great players are sentient and other players rely on primitive instincts. Any player can place the ball, that’s what being a striker is all about. The way he shapes his body given the lay of the ball in relation to the goal and the positioning of the opposition is the function of his pattern recognition, learned through years of being in similar situations, i.e. when far from goal from center you want to strike through with laces to get max power, but when at an angle, hit with the inside for precision and bend. Then, the way he strikes the ball with his foot is a function of his “muscle memory” for lack of a better term, which just means to a series of coordinated movements that are so well known to the brain as to be automatic given the right trigger, like lifting a fork to your mouth and placing the food in exactly the right spot every time. All footballers have this muscle memory for striking the ball. They may acquire new techniques in training, but they’re not going to be able to radically improve on what they always do, the intrinsic instinct of thousands of kicks, in that moment just because their team needs a goal. Until proven otherwise, I will consider observations to the contrary the effect of confirmation bias, that is, seeing what you expect to see.

            3. I didn’t meant to change my name to Dr. Goonerd, but I like it, I think it fits. 😛

6. I don’t necessarily agree or disagree, but this touches on the concept of ‘clutch’. One could also argue that there is less pressure early in a game, which some strikers may do better/worse with. Some strikers may also see a significant drop in quality when they’re fresh early in a game rather than tired later on, while others may remain relatively consistent. Again, I have no opinion either way, but this may be an area where data could shed some light.

7. Four hundred eighty five big chances missed was the amount of big chances missed by Arsenal players just against Man U in the 1:3 defeat last season.
   Or so would seem by the plaudits De Gea received after the game 🙂

8. I love this blog mainly for grounding argument in hard, statistical fact, so nothing I’ll say goes against that.

   Thing about big chances stats though is that, while they’re illuminating, football will always be about the gut, the visceral, and yes, the too-reactionary. So in the heat of the moment, we ooh and ahh and even aim some choice words at players who miss good chances. Or Big Chances. Which is as it should be. We’re fans.

   The inescapable fact is that we possibly dropped 2 points — and the chance to lay down important barometers against 2 of the best teams in league — through bad finishing from the 2 players from whom we expect to get the most goals.

   City and Chelsea have already opened up a 6 point gap on us. We take our chances and it’s possibly a 2 point gap (4, 4 and 2). Finishing is the great equaliser, nullifying big differences like territorial possession. We will play much better than some of the less strong teams, and still draw or lose against them. It’ll be down to their exceptional finishing, our bad one, refereeing decisions, goalkeeping errors, a number of things. But if you can get goals out of unpromising situations, anything is possible in football. You therefore need your elite forwards to do the job not only in the games we should reasonably expect to win, but in those in which the opposition is significantly better.

   So I kind of hear what Kaius is trying to say. Laca converting 2 big chances against Wolves in a game in which we’re smashing them carries less value than converting 1 against City. Auba will score far harder chances than the one he missed against Chelsea. So while it’s true that all forwards miss goals, the kind of games in which they miss (or score) them is hugely consequential, footballistically speaking.

   1. It is hugely consequential, no doubt. The argument is over whether that split second is modifiable by the circumstances around the striker in that moment. My position is that we notice big chances more when they are missed in crucial situations but that strikers cannot just “turn on” their scoring touch at will, that this is a variable that more or less stays constant for each striker beyond a certain point in his career.

9. RVP’s 144 league goals include 48 for United, I don’t think you should be using that number when you’re just looking at Arsenal’s big chances.

   1. Likewise for Giroud and Walcott’s numbers, although theirs is naturally not much inflated by the Chelsea and Everton additions.

10. Kaius is definitely on to something. A friend of mine used to call Darryl Strawberry “Han Solo” because he only hit solo shots late in the game when his team was up by 3 or 4 runs. Never a clutch homer. I agree it’s a lot easier to finish when your team is leading 5 nil than when you are down 2-1. There must be a way to assess finishing when you are within one goal of the other team’s score.

    1. Great anecdote! Han Solo reminds me of Giroud in big games.

       And yes, a “clutch finishing” stat for football would be pretty cool.

       1. Yep – they show up big in small games and small in big games!

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