Arsenal getting Bernd!

by imothyt

Welcome back. Or erm, I’m back.

I didn’t do any of the things that I wanted to do on my week off. Maybe I should take another week off from writing?

What happened while I was away.. Xhaka had one awful game and one good game, Xhaka made a bird symbol and Brits got outraged, Lichtsteiner was ok defensively, Özil had a bad game and then was dropped, Iwobi has been pretty poor, Welbeck hasn’t played, Ospina fell down a lot, and Arsenal have signed Bernd Leno from Bayer Leverkusen.

Also, I’m watching Lucas Torreira this morning and he looks pretty good. Very tidy in possession, covers spaces well, recovery sprints are great, and overall he just plays exactly how I’ve wanted a midfielder to play for Arsenal for about a decade.

Does that cover everything?

It’s not really that important.

Here’s a question I have for you all: what if I have stats that show that Bernd Leno sucks? Like what if he is just average and has been for years?

I ask because I looked at every one of his matches last season and in terms of saves he is either average or below average for all keepers. And when I mentioned this on Twitter I got a lot of angry replies accusing me of being negative. Here’s the deal, it’s just data. If I had written an article about him back in May, people would not accuse me of anything but because I looked at his data now, I’m called “moany” or worse.

I didn’t look at his data because I hate him, I looked at it because we signed him. I wanted to be excited by this signing. I wanted to have some data that makes me excited. I don’t have that data. So, I’m left hoping that Arsenal signed him because we think we can make him better.

I don’t think this is necessarily negative. Arsenal are signing a number of players who are coming off terrible seasons. If Emery lives up to his billing (the Brain Trust said that they hired him because he showed them detailed plans on how he would improve players) then he will get the best out of these guys. In that case it’s good business, right? Are you excited by Bernd Leno as he stands? Why?

Anyway, I’ll be back tomorrow with more of this kind of hard hitting reporting. Also, more puns on “Bernd/Burned”.

Qq

87 comments

  1. I’ve seen very little of Leverkusen to have any opinion of him but let me just warn you that you can not say or share anything negative about him even it’s meant to be light-hearted because that’s just how sensitive Arsenal fans are these days.

    So far, all I know is that I like that he is a full 13 inches taller than Ospina which means he would have saved that last minute goal from Fellaini at OT last season . Apparently he is also a beast when it comes to saving penalties. Like he saved 40 penalties in a row or something. I, for one, am looking forward to him punching Kane’s penalty kick back to his face when that lot inevitably get a penalty in their new grounds against us after a Dele Alli dive.

  2. Is there a good source to look at Torreira’s stats from the Russia match? I thought he looked quite good- like a young Kante and was curious about the stats.

  3. I like that he is younger than Cech.
    I like that he is taller than Ospina.
    I like that he has not made lots of errors playing for Arsenal, and therefore I can have hope.

    1. If this is all what we look for in a keeper, we could have simply promoted Macey.

  4. Signing Leno just makes me want to listen Röyksopp’s Melody AM.
    The underlying numbers don’t exactly paint a pretty picture.
    Then again, I think it was one of the Statsbomb IQ launch events profiled all the PL keepers and found that Cech was the absolute bottom ranked keeper, in terms of his save percentage versus the xG of the shots he faced. I’ve not seen the same metric applied to Leno, so have no idea how he rates in comparison.

  5. Leno hasnt saved a penalty for ages (nothing strange with that)he saved the majority of penalties he faced in 13/14 season and by all accounts has great reflexes and is a good shot stopper. In my opinion more than half the goalkeepers in this league performed better than any of our guys last season .. and if Leno can move laterally and save or at least attempt to save shots standing outside the goal-line rather than behind it .. He is probably an upgrade. All the hype seems to have come from his early years when he was expected to challenge Neuer (no small task) ,after that he seems to have gone stale/average. All this is what I have gathered from reading up by the way.. I have rarely seen him play. My excitement comes from us identifying a problem area and doing something about it. Hopefully he makes that step up. At 26 now is certainly the time.

  6. Maybe with the new goalkeeping coach, who made Fabianki considerably better at Swansea City, we can hope that same happens to Leno. I think Leno is similar to Szczesny in many ways. A highly rated youngster who made amazing saves but was prone to making mistakes. And after the changes in scenarios, Szczesny improved. Maybe this could happen with Leno as well. Now he’s an arsenal player, I’ll back him. He can’t do any worse that Cech last season.

  7. Also impressed with Torreira today.
    I know nothing (other than what you & Pedro of LG say) about Leno, but couldn’t we have got Butland (before Liverpool snap him up) for that money? I hear he’s desperate to leave Stoke.
    God knows we need to get some home grown players back into the squad

        1. It depends how correct you think the writer is that stagnation is at the heart of his form, and that a change of clubs and coaches will improve his play. I’ve read watchers of the Bundesliga who think we got a deal. I’m in the wait and see camp, and in the meantime, I’m not sure how I’ll profit from being pessimistic about how he’ll do at Arsenal. Personally speaking. Maybe it’s easier to be a bit down on him (or his chances) now just to keep the expectations low and hope to be pleasantly surprised? That’s cool.

  8. What do the stats show exactly? Would be good to see/know.

    We have a slow, aging keeper who, while positionally sound, has lost a couple of steps, and whose shot-stopping is only sometimes decent, and whose distribution is surprisingly not that good. I’ve seen 5 or 6 keepers at this world cup who are better, calmer sweeper/keepers. I love Petr, a classy presence on the field and in the dressing room, but we got him on the downslide, and in the last year it’s been rapid.

    We have an international quality No 2, a bit short in stature by premier league standards (and thus subject to set-piece bullying), whose kicking and distribution is iffy, but who’s a good shot-stopper. And as much as he’s never been a gooner favourite, is too important to his country to be any club’s No. 2.

    Don’t follow Bundesliga, didnt dive into stats, but on the basis of a throughly scientific YouTube vetting (<< attempted humour), we're getting an athletic keeper with crazy fast reflexes, who is very much in the modern sweeper/keeper, play it out the back mould. I'd love to see how he goes with an athletic centre half like Soyuncu, the best of the defenders linked to us. I like what YouTube and the reports that Ive read have told me about Leno.

    Hey, he may turn out to be a bad buy, but the proof of the pudding will be in the consumption of it. I'm going to give the Brains Trust the benefit of nearly every doubt at this stage. By Christmas or next season's end, I'll evaluate.

    I see from twitter that Tim had a slightly more positive re-evaluation of Lichtsteiner, on the basis of what he showed at the WC. There's hope for Leno yet. Was too distracted to watch Torreira even though the game was on TV, but gooner twitter has had rave reviews.

  9. Leno… meh.

    But then again, Fabianski was error prone until Emery’s man got a hold of him at Swansea for a year. I’m sure there was some of that thinking going on, otherwise that was a lot of money to pay for a keeper.

  10. Have you watched the movie “Moneyball”? There Brad Pitt hired some stats guru that used data analysis to find and hire good players that were overlooked by the scouts for various reasons (i.e. they throw funny).

    I have a feeling that our guru, Sven, plays some reversed Moneyball. he finds some dudes with average stats that somehow are going to start all of a sudden to show superb performances. Hopefully.

    1. This above with the exception of Torreira. But somehow Lichtsteiner, Sokratis and Bernd Leno (that I somehow always call “Jay”) fit that category. No idea about Ever Banega, if there is some truth into the speculations about him.

    2. we have certainly talked plenty about the money ball approach. the problem with stats in football is that they only tell half of the story.

      in baseball, there’s not a lot of tactical decisions made by players. the chance to make a double play, where to hit the ball, or where to go with the ball after a hit covers the majority of the tactical thinking/decision making involved in baseball. soccer is far more dynamic and there are so many qualities that can’t be quantified.

      it’s not that stats aren’t important. we love raw data. however, data doesn’t paint the entire picture and we respect that.

      1. It doesn’t pain tghe entire picture but I grouped his saves into three categories: big chances, saves outside the box, and “non-big-chance-in-the-box” saves.

        Premier League average: 36% big chance saves, 86% outside, and 79% in the box
        Cech: 35%, 94%, 77%
        Leno: 26%, 82%, 86%

        And when I look at “expected saves” he made just one fewer saves than expected.

        The problem is that his saves rate off big chances is poor. He saved just 8/31. If he makes an average season of it, he saves 11/31. But Good keepers consistently save big chances at a high rate: de Gea’s numbers in each category were 47%, 94%, and 94%.

        Leno’s not bad, he’s just kind of underwhelmingly average.

        1. Leno’s not bad, he’s just kind of underwhelmingly average.

          ===

          According to the numbers…which you admit don’t tell the whole story! 😀

        2. Your Cech stats are surprising in that they contradict the eye- and memory-test. I thought Cech was good on big chances, bad on long shots but the reverse seems to be true.

          If I remember rightly Arsenal gave up a lower percentage of Big Chance goals than other teams, which I thought implied a higher % of big chance saves / blocks? I can’t find where I saw that…

      2. it’s not that stats aren’t important. we love raw data. however, data doesn’t paint the entire picture and we respect that.

        ………………….

        This is what I mean, I hope that Sven has seen something beyond the raw data that will turn these players into a good squad fit and they will show good performances. Which will be measured in improved statistics 🙂

  11. i don’t think fabianski was a bad keeper. he made some mistakes early on in his career that earned him that moniker but, as was established last week, what keeper hasn’t made mistakes? by the time fabianski left, he’d proven to be a solid keeper. he left arsenal to be a starter. maybe the keeper coach fabianski had swansea helped somewhat but fabianski was very solid when he left arsenal; his ball distribution was lights out.

  12. So you tried to flame Leno on twitter and got your fingers Bernd? 🙂

    I know nothing about Leno really. But he’s taller than Ospina, and he’s quicker than Cech. Apparently better distribution than both. Hopefully a change of scenery and competition with/learning from a senior gk will help.

    Likewise Cech is in a contract year. Facing competition not just from Leno but also guys like Macey and Martinez. We’ll probably sell a few of them now but if Cech wants to play and live in London beyond this year he’ll have to show that it was a dip in form rather than permanent decline.

    Any keeper will also benefit from what will hopefully be a more settled and focused defense.

  13. Tim do you reckon we’ve signed Torreira? And what do you make of the departure of Wilshere and the Banega rumours? How do you think we’ll line up next season?

    1. I’m the only Gooner who liked Wilshere and thought he would be a good squad player. I know how limited he is but he’s 1) British and 2) still somewhat useful. I think he’s going to be hard to replace.

      My favorite thing about Banega is that he’s going to be 30 in a few weeks… Overthirty FC!

      I don’t know why we are going for all these old men.

      1. Agreed. I have nothing against Banega–think he’s a good player–but if we really are going after him, and we’re doing so effectively as a Wilshere replacement because we gently led Jack out the door by telling him he wasn’t really in our plans going forward (as opposed to signing EB as insurance in case Ramsey leaves, or because we genuinely wanted to keep Jack but he insisted on specific assurances in terms of starts, etc, that we couldn’t reasonably give), then that just seems like very bad business.

        I’d argue it’s bad business even if you think Banega’s a better squad option than Jack (debatable, particularly given his age), or that they’re different players with different strengths (obviously true, but they’re not different enough to make the exchange worthwhile).

        Consider:
        we’ve gotten rid of
        (a) a talented, valuable, 26 year old English asset
        (b) FOR NOTHING,
        (c) a player who knows and loves the club and was willing to take a pay cut to sign back up for us,
        (d) and who, despite his unfair reputation among fans for being ill-disciplined (simply due to being caught smoking twice!) has a sterling reputation among those who know him of professionalism and hard work on the training ground and in the dressing room (just ask Gary Neville, who knows a thing or two about professionalism),

        and in Banega we’d be replacing him with
        (e) a 30 year old (talented) journeyman,
        (f) who’s never played in England and whose game is hardly a natural fit for the PL,
        (g) for a fee of 16m.

        Just doesn’t make a lot of sense. Oh well.

        I suspect the rumors are mostly the agent shopping him around, anyway.

        1. Leaving was JACK’s decision. We INCREASED the size of our offer to him. And we’ve had contract papers for him to sign for a year.

          The most telling line in jack’s statement was that he was at age where he needs to be playing week in, week out and not warming the bench.

          This is the second time in 3 years that Jack chose to leave (permanently this time), because he couldnt be guaranteed a starting place.

          This time, as a free agent, he has all of the stay/go leverage.

          1. He said explicitly he had decided to stay, before the meeting with Emery. We supposedly (though I haven’t seen clear confirmation on the exact numbers anywhere) increased our offer for him, but it wasn’t an increase on what he’s getting now (not saying he deserved more, just saying it’s not like the club were bending over backwards to keep him).

            Everyone reported–and Jack clearly stated–that the reason he was leaving was because Emery didn’t see him as important to his future plans. Now, as I say below, a lot depends on whether that was, “sorry Jack, I can’t guarantee you a starting spot,” (totally reasonable), or more like, “there’s an offer on the table, but just so you know, you’re unlikely to get a lot of starts/playing time next year if you stay,” (totally Emery’s prerogative as the new coach, but basically equivalent to ushering Jack out the door).

            Based on the many, many accounts I’ve read, including Jack’s own, I think it was much more the second than the first. It would be too tedious to pore over the details of all those newspaper accounts here to defend my interpretation, but here’s a bit of my thought process:

            Emery avoided saying anything nice about Jack, when given the opportunity to do so by a journo at his very first press conference, saying something vague about not wanting to talk explicitly about players, even though he had JUST said something nice about Ozil when asked a similar question. It was leaked out (by Gazidis, I think?), that he thinks very highly of AMN, knows his game already, and is excited about developing him. We’ve also heard that Ramsey is central to his plans. He said something very complimentary about Xhaka after his new contract was announced. Obviously this is par for the course in those moments, but it’s clear that Emery is on board with the Swiss being a key component of his midfield, given that the contract renewal happened after his arrival, and Xhaka even said he takes the contract as a message from the new coach that he’s valued. And obviously Emery’s completely on board with Torreira coming in and being a key midfield component, if that happens. We also know from one of the interviews about him from his PSG days (I think it was the interview with his biographer?) that he tried to sign Mikhi to PSG from Dortmund. (There’s also the Banega stuff, but maybe that’s all media-created.)

            So one of the few midfielders conspicuous by his absence in all of that was Jack, who had a contract on the table from well before Emery’s time at the club. Based on the above, I think it’s fair to surmise that Emery really wasn’t interested in Jack being clear to his plans.

            Unless you think Jack is outright lying (uncharitable) when he says he had decided to sign the improve contract offer (improved terms offered BEFORE Emery arrived), it stands to reason that it was going to take a fair amount of discouragement on Emery’s part to convince Jack not to stay at the club that he first joined when he was in PRIMARY SCHOOL. I mean, even if he makes more money elsewhere, the offer from Arsenal was still pretty good, and it’s not like these mid-table Prem clubs are going to put him on absolutely massive wages now, with his injury record. Plus, he’s never come across (you may disagree, but I don’t see the evidence) as a footballer obsessed with the money, fancy cars, bling, etc.

            Putting all this together, it doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to deduce that Emery must have been pretty discouraging to Jack in their meeting. Maybe Jack had unrealistic demands about playing time–you’re right I can’t rule that out–but in any event, the circumstantial evidence suggests that Jack was never even close to central to Emery’s midfield plans for Arsenal next year, and that, since the club weren’t going to renege on the contract offer on the table (we still have certain values at this club), Emery’s job was to convince Jack that it was in his best interests not to sign it. Jack can hardly be blamed if he got the memo, and decided he needed to look elsewhere, despite his obvious love for the only club he’s ever known.

          2. No, he did not “explicitly say he decided to stay.” That is flat out inaccurate. Not one news report supports that assertion.

            More tellingly, Jack’s behaviour over the past two years doesn’t. He hasn’t signed the bleeping contract whose terms were improved in recent months. And he left the club before, when we bought Xhaka.

            What do you think he meant when he said he was at the age where he needs to be playing regular football?

            I think It’s a simple issue. A player, who fell down the pecking order and feels that his career is stalled, didn’t get first XI assurances, and left for club where he’ll be a big dog. Personally, I think he was foolish to pass on a good contract offer from Arsenal, all things considered. He’s finding out that the market for his services outside of Arsenal is a tough one. He’d have got plenty of games. Part of me hopes that bothered parties rethink it before the week ends.

      2. By no means the only Gooner. I’m disappointed he left, he’s homegrown and he leaves a big hole that’s risky to fill.

        I think many others were down on him because of this tiresome hymn to the player he could have been – instead of just seeing clear-eyed the excellent player he is.

        There’s this constant question over his fitness as well – it looks to me like his injuries slowed him but to compensate he strengthened up considerably and is more robust. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went somewhere else and played pretty much injury-free.

        Ah well, as Claude says it was at least partly his decision to go.

      3. I don’t know either. I’m getting the sense they’re putting all their eggs into the Europa League basket to get back into the Champions League money. An Europa League winning coach. Players with success in the Europa/Champions League; Lichtsteiner, Papastathopolous, Banega, Mhykitaryan, Aubameyang.

        This is starting to bum me out. I thought Mislintat had a supposed eye for young talent. I thought Emery had a reputation for developing it. I expected us to start stockpiling U23s for a title push in 2-3 years. Nope.

  14. ha! i get the röyksopp pun but many on here may not. i just heard poor leno when i was driving the other night. sparks is my favorite röyksopp track period, let alone on that album.

      1. Tried to respond to this earlier, but for some reason the internetics ate my comment.

        Here it goes again: I’m a big fan of Röyksopp, but The Understanding is, I think, their best album (recent work with Robyn, for example “Monument” (the Inevitable End version in particular) is also exemplary). I also wanted to recommend — for those of you who like ambient electronic — Tycho, especially the Awake and Epoch albums (the first tracks on each are excellent), which has lately provided the soundtrack to my work.

      3. Oops! I’ve tried to post a reply twice to your comment, but it’s not letting me. I guess references to music are a sensitive topic!

    2. Have liked Röyksopp for many years now. The Melody AM album is good, but for me, nothing compares to The Understanding. More recently, their Monument (w/ Robyn) is good (especially the Inevitable End version). Somewhat relatedly, if you’re a fan of ambient electronic (it’s my soundtrack to work), I recently discovered Tycho, and am enjoying the Awake and Epoch albums.

  15. Having said I’d give the new regime the benefit of most doubt, I’m less than thrilled about potentially getting Banega. As Tim points out, he’s 30 when the season starts. Two thirty something signings, I’m easy with. Three is taking the mick. Lichtsteiner, Sokratis AND Banega? Not so sure.

    Which brings us to Jack. Clearly Torreira is being bought to start. Given that it’ll probably be him, Ramsey and Xhaka, Jack will get his share of games as next on the taxi rank. A good many games, actually. Ramsey will miss the usual 2 months. I said here a couple of months ago that I don’t think he’ll accept a squad role, but it’s bizarre that he’d be so close to the first team and walk away because he won’t be in the starting XI every weak.

    It’s the second duff decision he’s made in recent years, the other being to go on loan to Bournemouth. Anyone coming in would also be a squad player, and high quality internationals like Banega are not going to accept a squad role that Jack didn’t want. In this case, I’d prefer a promising young player (why Adli? 😪) must be a style of play consideration for Emery.

    I think that Jack wanted the big payday, and his stated reasons didn’t convince me.

    Shaqiri”S game is different, but I’d look to get him from Stoke. Apparently he has a 12m release clause in case of relegation, but I don’t see Stoke accepting that after his barnstorming game against Serbia. Plus he’s 26, Wilsheres age. love his directness. 21 goals for Switzerland. He’d be a steal for us.

    1. Claude,
      It depends on how you read the reports: I read them (and Jack’s farewell, where he made it clear he wanted to stay prior to the meeting with Emery) as implying NOT that Emery just wouldn’t give him assurances of starts or something like that, but that he effectively told him something like,

      “look, the club has offered you a new deal from before I arrived, and we’re not going to take that back, but just so you know, I don’t really see you as part of my plans. You’ll be a squad member, and I’m not gonna force you to train with the youth team or anything brutal like that, but I don’t see you as central to the team I’m building and you’re unlikely to be a regular starter going forward (crazy injury crisis permitted, of course).”

      Obviously none of us know exactly what Emery said to Jack, but based on Jack’s reaction and the way the English press (at least some of whom looked to have talked to the player or his camp) reported it, I reckon it was more along the lines of the above, rather than something like,
      “look, you’ll be a valuable member of the squad, and I really want to keep you, but I can’t in good faith guarantee you’re going to start most/every week; you’ll have to compete for your place like everyone else.”
      If Emery said the latter, then Jack is a fool to leave. But I think it was more the former, in which case, at his age, Jack would be a fool to stay. And it’s Arsenal, not Jack, who are to “blame” for the breakup (assuming, like me, you think it’s a shame to lose him from the squad for nothing).

      1. PS
        “I think that Jack wanted the big payday, and his stated reasons didn’t convince me.”

        This seems extremely uncharitable, given that it’s based on no evidence and directly contradicts the player’s explicit words (and the reports of many in the English media who for weeks before and directly after Emery was appointed were saying Jack had decided to stay).

        1. It is because his reasons didnt add up that I surmised that he was after a big payday. Neither of us knows for sure. It’s only a surmise. But it probably wasnt fair to say that, for more complex, nuanced reasons that I get into below.

          Truth is that Jack’s been in the departure lounge for a long time. Much was made of the fact that he couldn’t bring himself to mention Arsenal in any of his social media profiles for 2 years now. The fuse was lit, when, just before the season before the last, Arsene essentially told him what Emery did. So he went somewhere where he could get regular ball. It didn’t work out. There has for some time now, been an estrangement from the club, the full reasons for which will come out one day. He seems to me to have stopped seeing himself as fully belonging, and certainly of being an untouchable.

          So he came back, put his head down, and forced his way back from the Second Xi to the first. It’s what makes your first conversation scenario with Emery seem far fetched. The reserves? Come on. It’s in Arsenal’s interest to create value in their players, not destroy it. Ideally Wilshere signs on, and in two years time, aged 28, he’s worth something in double digits millions. I doubt whether Gazidid wants to spend 12 million on Banega and offload Wilshere for nothing. Remember that Arsenal INCREASED their salary offer to him, and that an offer has been on the table for a year now.

          I like Jack, I wanted him to stay, because of his boyhood ties with the club and because I think that while he’s not good enough to start, he’s good enough to play a role. He’s lost a step, a couple of steps, to be honest. He’s 26, his body is 36. His still doesn’t know where his best place on the field is. Orchestrator? Xhaka does that. Creator? Ozil does that. Ferryer? Iwobi does that. B2B? Ramsey does that. All round skillbert? AMN is the coming man, and has to be given playing time. Ball Security to keep it tight or close out a game? Elneny is preferred.

          Oh btw, reports from several outlets are today that West Ham want to offer him only a year, at a salary below what Arsenal tabled. No idea if its true, of course. But I do respect to him for tearing himself out of his comfort zone. I hope that he gets a good club, but I fear that he’ll find that the grass isn’t greener. Even Bournemouth passed on him after his loan, having dropped him to the bench before season’s end.

          I’m sure that youve read Tim Stillman’s recent column on Jack. Tim nailed it.

          1. I think Stillman said I number of true things in that column, but I found it a bit uncharitable at points. Basically, I think I see quality in his performances (and that he’s actually a really great professional off the pitch who’s struggled against horrific injuries) whereas many Arsenal supporters, particularly some of the most influential bloggers, sorta wrote him off several years ago, and haven’t seen what I’ve seen from him on the pitch, and furthermore always seem to imply that this is to a considerable degree his own fault (he got caught smoking, dontcha know).

            He didn’t help himself by going through a bad run of form near the end of last season–people always remember the most recent form of a player–whereas he was actually really excellent for us in the middle of the season when a lot of the rest of the team was struggling. I have my suspicions that that bad form had a lot to do with carrying some niggling injuries and his understandable disappointment at failing to be able to impress for England when he got called up. However, if anyone goes back and watches his performances in Dec-Jan against Chelsea (I think both in the PL and the League cup, but those games run together in my head), Liverpool home, and Bournemouth away, they’ll see a player who still had a ton to offer Arsenal.

            In any event, I think a lot of what you said in this particular comment that I’m responding to here is right and even-handed. I just don’t think Emery and the club (once Emery came ine) really wanted to keep him, and I think they made that clear. I don’t think he was told he would have to train with the reserves or anything like that; but I think he was told he was going to be more-or-less a fringe player in the squad (perhaps not in so many words). I agree with you that this doesn’t make a lot of strategic/financial sense from the club’s point of view, but sometimes new manager’s come in and just want to trim the fat a bit so they can simplify things by focusing on the players they really want to work with. I get that. I just don’t think then bringing in Banega, when we could’ve kept Jack instead, is a good decision. But we’ll see. I think Banega’s going to be convinced to stay in Sevilla anyway.

    3. Hold on a sec, so you agree with me about Banega then? Was it all just because I called Leno average-looking?

  16. I am not particularly encouraged by the summer recruitment but I am trying to give the new regime the benefit of the doubt, as others have mentioned. The only one the potential new signings that qualifies as “exciting” is Torreira, the rest seem like plugging holes in the dam. That’s fine in the case of Lichtensteiner, where you’re just making a slightly suboptimal signing because he’s a free. Throwing good money at Leno and Sokratis, not to mention potentially Banega I’m not sure really solves anything.

    That said, what I’m looking at now is who goes. We’re well over the 50 million quid we supposedly had to spend if Sokratis and Torreira do indeed come in. If the books are balanced by moving on Campbell, Ospina , Chambers, Welbeck then I’ll give the new regime some credit for trying to do a lot with not that much; even if I don’t love the sorts of choices they’re making. If its Ramsey or Bellerin who go and we end up another window making a stealthy net profit, while the squad gets older and not appreciably better, then my pitchforks are getting sharpened.

    My guess is Banega is mostly agent talk – Torreira and Sokratis do come in and that’s the end of our recruitment. But Ramsey is the real question of the summer. If he re-signs and the cost is say, Mustafi and this lukewarm batch of arrivals and nobody else key leaves, I think we’re okay if we qualify for the CL this year. If he is left all year a la Ozil and Sanchez last season, I think we could be in trouble. And if he’s sold without another dynamic player brought in of a similar ilk, well then I think the real pain for Arsenal fans is just beginning.

    1. Lichtsteiner: He’s not going to be good in the Premier League as a fullback, he let a lot of crosses in in the world cup and has zero ability to get forward, though he might do well as a center half.
      Sokratis: no, no, no, and no. We are taking a 30 year old on a 4 year deal with a long history of injuries who is coming off his worst ever season as a footballer. The most optimistic thing to hope for here is that he gets a huge bump from Emery.
      Leno: well, he’s better than Ospina and if we figure all we need is a mediocre keeper to replace the very old and mediocre Cech, then I guess we got it.
      Torreira: legit talent, probably will be hated by Brits because of his penchant for “crab” passing.
      Banega: legit talent, has worked with Emery before (both at Valencia and Sevilla), and would be a fantastic addition to the team. However, he is 30 and I really just wish we had gotten him 4 years ago. I also wonder if we sign him what happens to Ramsey and/or Xhaka. That might mean we are selling Ramsey.

        1. Kovacic is the wrong age profile, i.e. 24. Outside of Torreira, it looks like we only want 30+ year old outfield players.

          If Ramsey leaves and replace with Banega we’re in big trouble… not so much this year, but 2 or 3 years down the road.

          1. yep. and what’s weird is that Ramsey and Banega are SO OBVIOUSLY different kinds of players. I’ve still got a bit more faith in Emery and co than some of you seem to: I think Ramsey’s going to be convinced to stay, and that Banega is mostly agent talk (though I think Emery would understandably take him for a cheap price). I also think we’re after Soyuncu, or another young, super talented CB. And I’ve got a weird suspicion that Leno’s going to surprise us all and be brilliant for us (or at least much better than we’ve become accustomed to).

  17. While I understand the skepticism behind Leno, he’s a player with potential which can be unearthed with some good coaching and organization. I understand that his stats for last season are not very impressive but at the same time I think there are a lot of intangibles involved which cloud the picture if seen through the prism of stats and numbers.

    Bayer Leverkusen weren’t a particularly strong team defensively, the quality of defenders in front of him, the tactics etc play a significant role in a keepers performance and how exposed he is and his confidence or lack of it from those situations.For example Cech’s decline can be attributed to his age as well as being exposed constantly because of our shit defending and organization as compared to his heydays in Chelsea.

    We should also keep in mind the shit season we had and if someone had to look at the stats for our players for the past season, I doubt a lot of players would look impressive and would not be a true reflection of their potential and capabilities.

    As far as the age profile debate is considered, a lot of it is inspired by the apparent success of Liverpool and Spurs who in reality have won nothing, zilch, nada. Their relative success is inspired by having a world class goal scorer up top. The title winning City team had more than 5 players above the age of 30. CL winning Real team had 6 players above 30. Juventus who knocked the young Spurs team out had 7 players over 30. Even utd who finished above both Liverpool and Spurs has around 5 players over 30 in its lineup. So age doesn’t really matter.

    For the next season I don’t expect a miracle from Emery. We should give him time and be patient and see what he’s trying to do before jumping to conclusions.

  18. While I understand the skepticism behind Leno, he’s a player with potential which can be unearthed with some good coaching and organization. I understand that his stats for last season are not very impressive but at the same time I think there are a lot of intangibles involved which cloud the picture if seen through the prism of stats and numbers.

    Bayer Leverkusen weren’t a particularly strong team defensively, the quality of defenders in front of him, the tactics etc play a significant role in a keepers performance and how exposed he is and his confidence or lack of it from those situations.For example Cech’s decline can be attributed to his age as well as being exposed constantly because of our shit defending and organization as compared to his heydays in Chelsea.

    We should also keep in mind the shit season we had and if someone had to look at the stats for our players for the past season, I doubt a lot of players would look impressive and would not be a true reflection of their potential and capabilities.

    As far as the age profile debate is considered, a lot of it is inspired by the apparent success of Liverpool and Spurs who in reality have won nothing, zilch, nada. Their relative success is inspired by having a world class goal scorer up top. The title winning City team had more than 5 players above the age of 30. CL winning Real team had 6 players above 30. Juventus who knocked the young Spurs team out had 7 players over 30. Even utd who finished above both Liverpool and Spurs has around 5 players over 30 in its lineup. So age doesn’t really matter.

    For the next season I don’t expect a miracle from Emery. We should give him time and be patient and see what he’s trying to do before jumping to conclusions.

  19. I promised you a theory on Twitter, so here goes:

    A potential picture is starting to emerge of our signings. It started with Lichtsteiner: a very good signing on the face of it: free, a backup, still playing at the highest level (Juve), and knows the practical side of the game. Sokratis too seemed practical: experienced but not old per se, good but not world class. A stand-in for Kos, or perhaps someone to allow Chambers, Holding and Mavro to mature. I have some reservations about the price, but maybe that’s just the market.*

    Torreira was the first real exciting signing (should he actually sign). Young, highly rated, potential for the future in a position we definitely need a player. Exactly the signing a team in our position should be making.

    But then Leno. What can you say about Leno? I know goalkeeper scouting is hard to do; harder than attackers and midfielders, certainly. But what can you say about a player who does not stand out statistically in any way? And he wasn’t cheap. 20m? Not cheap at all. If he’s a gamble and we’re hoping to improve him (and we certainly have a track record of that…**), why pay so much? What did our scouting team see in a keeper known for clangers, mediocre ability, etc.? Some huge upside that nobody else has seen/managed to unlock? Doubtful at his age. Dubious.

    And now Banega. 29. Never played for a team better than Europa-level. Good not great. Part of that shambolic Argentina team. And 20m again!

    With Sokratis I get it. He’s a stopgap. But who is Banega a stopgap for? AMN? Do they play in the same position?

    Is he good enough to lift us to the next level? That article in the guardian talks about how he made Fellaini look crap. Fellaini IS crap! That’s not a point of comparison we should be making!

    I think midfielders are a little underpriced in the market this summer: Jorginho for <50m. Fabinho for ~50m. Kovacic for 44m. We should be taking advantage of that and signing someone big. Someone who can dominate our midfield and take us to the next level. Not a washed-out journeyman who is good and not great.

    And so the theory is…maybe we're not interested in challenging for top 3 at all. Maybe we see that is out of our reach without investing a LOT more – which is reasonable, especially during the Pep era. After all, we're not going to win the league. Why throw good money after bad? Maybe we're investing just enough to challenge for 4th, but fall no lower than 6th. Keep a team just competitive enough on a budget by bringing in journeymen, experienced pros, people who are reliable and consistent but not outstanding. Keep us afloat, so to speak, and in the money, until a time when we think we're ready to compete again.

    It doesn't seem like buying cheap and selling high is part of this strategy either. More like buying players for 15-20 who are worth more RIGHT NOW, but with no resale value. Auba – for instance. A striker of his caliber is worth so much more than we paid, but he's worth nothing in 4 years. Maybe he keeps us afloat, challenging for 4th, in the money. Keep the predictable revenue streams – commercial income, Europa + occasional CL, etc. – flowing. But we're not trying to build a team to compete with the top 3.

    *I'm starting to see the market as being hot/cold depending on the type of player. Last summer strikers and forwards were ridiculous. Midfielders were not cheap too. This year midfielders seem a lot more affordable – ~50m for the best the market has to offer, but defenders are crazily priced (thanks, Pool). Goalkeepers have finally appreciated too.

    ** We have a new keeping coach, but that's no guarantee that we'll somehow work miracles.

    1. Why not wait until a ball has been kicked before castigating the signings? I’m going to judge in May. I think the strategy is to get us to fourth place, back into the CL, and then use that leverage to make better signings.

      1. Aren’t you glad that we have superb fans, like Zed, who are there to put the scouts in their place?

        I mean, to quote Zed, “What did our scouting team see in a keeper known for clangers, mediocre ability, etc.?”

        Etcetera is even more illuminating and devastating than “mediocre ability.”

        Gooners.

        1. Claude –

          I’ve been around these parts long enough enough to not be talked about like your average Arsenal Twitter loon, so I don’t appreciate that.

          I don’t expect you to follow my posts, so I’ll remind you that when Tim was castigating us for signing Licht for being old and slow, I was saying our scouts probably saw enough signs of life in there to think it was worth going for him. But Licht is a backup RB for a season or two, not our starting keeper for the next 10 years. You can take a chance on him. He also has an excellent track record, unlike Leno. He’s a small risk. Leno is a big risk. If it works out I’ll be overjoyed, but I haven’t seen a single thing out there that suggests Leno is some super talent waiting to be unlocked. So I’m wary.

          And for the record no, I’m not a superb fan. Not at all. I don’t go to games, I don’t buy the shirts. But I’m not poison either. This is pretty much the only place I talk about Arsenal. I don’t shit all over the team on Twitter or elsewhere. I have a small footprint. There are worse fans to have.

          Bunburyist –

          That’s fair of course, and I’m open to them. I’m glad we’re actually filling the obvious holes in our squad – overjoyed, really. But two things:
          1. Wenger always told us to judge him in May. And then the end of the summer. And then May again. I hate that cycle.
          2. A pattern is emerging from our signings, and it’s not one I’m hugely comfortable with. Older, experienced players of decent ability. A radical departure from previously, which I’m happy about, but also a clearly limited upside. It doesn’t make me a moaner to say that Sokratis, Licht, Leno and Banega are not going to overhaul Man City or Liverpool. Nor has Emery shown himself to be the once-in-a-generation talent that can mould those solid-but-limited-upside players into world beaters – he’s probably solid-but-limited-upside too.

          I get there’s a lot of optimism around this team, and maybe I’m feeling the heat Tim is too. I’m just lowering my expectations based on the caliber, age profile and potential upside of player we’re targeting.

        2. Oh come on, Zed’s being pessimistic, but he’s just airing his thought process. We all do that here, and sometimes we’re much harsher on Arsenal than he’s being. He may be wrong in the end, but he’s not being dramatic and over the top. He’s just saying his suspicions are leading him to worry and doubt. That’s fair. We’re all allowed to be speculative here, and pessimistic.
          I for one found his theory pretty well argued, and a good read, despite the fact that I think it’s reasonable to give our scouting department the benefit of the doubt on a player like Leno.

    2. I am with Zedd. Some of the buys don’t make too much sense.

      Sokratis dropped a Mustafi season. So we basically now have 2 Mustafis. The greek is cheaper but older. Honestly, why not just Johnny Evans the whole thing.

      Leno is like Fabianski, just more expensive.

      Benega? Maybe just to help Emery to get his message to the mid.

      Or maybe the transfer team is just out for bungs.

  20. In terms of exciting youngish signings or lack thereof –

    Torreira is ideal. And looking at the age profile of our midfield where we have a couple youngsters and are otherwise stocked in the 25-7 range, a 22 year old and a 29 year old (until he is 30) is just about perfect. I don’t know Banega but sure, if the manager knows and trusts him, fine.

    We need some prime-age exciting new blood in the forward line, but that’s also where we’re most stocked with talent. So we don’t need to buy the equivalent of a Mbappe or Dembele this summer but that’s where I would like to see us go next summer on the back of a good 2018-19 campaign.

    1. Of course what we also need to happen is that between them Bayern and Madrid don’t know what to do with James, and we pick him up next year as a replacement for Ozil.

      1. Bayern Munich activated the buyout clause already, he will be a Bayern player for the forseeable future.

      2. Why would James come to us now, even if Bayern hadn’t just activated the buy out clause? We’re about to sell his brother in law. The time to bring him in was last year when Real were looking to off load him.

          1. Wait. James was married to Ospina’s sis? I always thought Ospina was married to James’ sis..

  21. i’m sorry but i’m with gaspar and zed. neither of these signings excite me. they simply aren’t arsenal-type quality signings. ok, maybe soyuncu if arsenal get it done. where are the auba-laca-alexis-mesut-santi-type signings? where are they players that ooze class that we just can’t wait to see don an arsenal shirt?

    arsenal need to be trying to compete this year and next year. they don’t have time for a rebuild. nacho and koscielny are 32. ozil, auba, and mkhi are all 29. lacazette, ramsey, and welbeck are all 27. these are among arsenal’s best players and they’re all in their prime. yet the club is buying a bunch of mediocrity that doesn’t appear good enough to help arsenal win. what’s the point? what direction is the club going? are we going to allow the best players to waste the best years of their careers as arsenal rebuild or whatever they’re doing?

    i want to be excited with the new regime but the lack of true quality in these signings makes it a struggle. not one of these players makes arsenal better. £20 million for leno is nuts! it’s like £35 million for mustafi and xhaka. i’d rather keep ospina, who i think is better than leno, for free. why not use that £20 million to help secure n’zonzi or kovacic; players who can help arsenal win right now and build a platform for future stars?

    1. 1. I don’t know Leno, but I know Ospina is really, really, really bad. I really, really, really can’t wait to see the back of him (seems like a nice bloke, though).

      2. I don’t entirely disagree with your points, but what does “compete this year” mean? I don’t think we should have an inferiority complex against the likes of Spurs and Chelsea and even ‘Pool (though the latter are certainly better than us now). I think we should be looking at get into the CL, and not just by the Europa back door. But I think events in just the last two years have made the idea of us competing for the premier league–even with a new coach–to be completely unrealistic for at least a season or two. Surely you don’t disagree with that last statement?

  22. What if Ospina wants to leave. Do you still keep him against his wishes without making him the no 1?

    Hey, I’d love me some Oblak or Alisson in Arsenal jersey but last time I checked this type of talent was north of €60m.
    You’ve got this kind of change laying around because Arsenal don’t.

    Unless you can come up with another goalie whos been available for Leno money with better stats than him, then this exercise is kinda pointless.

    1. it’s not really an exercise, tom. tim’s just giving us the raw data.

      make no mistake, with arsenal signing leno, ospina will want to leave. i’m on record saying that i don’t think leno is better than ospina and arsenal could have better spent that money. we’ll soon see.

    2. I mean between Leno and Oblak there is still a whole world of options. Leno was maybe the 10th best keepers in the Bundesliga, there was plenty to pick from.

  23. Wow, so much ‘hate’ for our rumoured signings, except for Torreira. I’m happy if we get Sokratis. I’m happy with Licht. Experience is important especially in defense. Of course, I’d be happier if we also get someone like Soyuncu. But so far, so good.

    I guess Leno will tell us about Sven’s diamond eye, and how polished it is with StatsDNA.

    I think people may be ignoring that our aim for the age profile of the team is to get younger through the academy. A project youth redux. You bet the owner liked the original version. Now with more funds than then, we should also be able to supplement the yoof with some better players. But for that, we need the CL. Which is what these Over30’s are supposed to help us get. More of a known quantity, so less of a risk, even with the loss in resale value.

    1. I totally agree Shard.
      We’ve had years of *team* building which generally seemed to revolve around getting the best player for the money, regardless of whether they improved the team.
      To me this looks like an exercise in building a squad for a two fronted assault on the CL this season – via the league and Europe. The manager wants to be in a position to control games so the recruitment department is getting in players to enhance the ability to do that. Other considerations are being discarded in favour of progress now.
      Keeper statistics could be one of the things that StatsDNA have made real progress in since they went behind closed doors – at the moment it’s very early days for the public work, other than confirming that De Gea isn’t just a good keeper, he’s at a Messi-level of exceptionally good.
      It could be that although Leno’s raw numbers don’t look good, the chances he’s faced have been of such high quality (>0.75xG) that a 40% save rate actually rates him well above a keeper who manages 50% saves against 0.33xG.

    2. personally, i don’t “hate” the signings. i’m just not particularly excited by any of them.

      at a fundamental level, i believe that the champions league is for teams fighting to be the champions of their domestic leagues, not competing for a top 4 spot. if you’re competing for the championship, finishing in the top 4 tends to take care of itself. i don’t believe the signings arsenal have made can see them compete for the championship, and thereby, not competing in the champions league. if arsenal are not competing for the championship, what are they doing?

      as for torreira, he doesn’t excite me. i don’t think he’s a bad player but i don’t see him becoming a superstar player in england; no big upside. he’s a mini-me version of elneny and arsenal just paid £26 million for him. i rate elneny, coquelin, and oxlade-chamberlain higher than lucas torreira. there are players like max meyer, lo celso, kovacic, zielinski, or even julian weigl that have a seemingly higher ceiling. if arsenal intend to play him as a cdm, it won’t work; he’s too inexperienced. i think he’ll struggle mightly in the premier league.

  24. Sorry, the notion that fans know more than the scouts and gravely lecturing them is the fans getting a wee bit ahead of themselves. Yeah, yeah, I know it’s an opinions forum and that everyone has the right to one, but still…

    Tim uses the word average, which is not an unfair reading of his stats. But the talk has somehow morphed into Leno being a bad signing, and the “10th best signing in the Bundesliga.” Whoa, man. Leno is Germany’s 4th choice, and was cut from the final squad. We have Colombia’s No. 1, and the Czech Republic’s No. 1. Didnt exactly help our cause last season. Leno seems to have attributes that both Cech and Ospina lack.

    I have been plenty critical of the club, but the wave of Negative Nancying here is a bit of a surprise. That quibbling over 19m. What is optimal? Ten? Oblak’s transfer market value is 65m, and if you want to argue that we should have gone for him that’s one thing. But the 19m we paid is a good market price .

    But hey there’s hope. Torreira is getting plenty of love, based on one completed game. Word last week was that he was too lightweight for the premier league. There’s hope for Leno.

    I like that it’s not yet July, but our business, world cup notwithstanding, is being done with comparative speed and professionalism. Some of the recruitment is clearly stop-gap, and part of a short-term strategy. Id have preferred to keep Wilshere than bring in another thirtysomething, but a player who is a free agent has full control over his movement. As a fan, Im not going to obsess over 10m spent by one of the top 8 richest clubs in the world.

    I trust the scouts. I trust the new regime, until they give me cause not to. Vieira wasnt pulling up trees at Milan, but we bought him and put him in an environment where he flourished.

    1. Well, but on the other hand, do people have to qualify every statement that is not aggressive optimism and some kind of extreme cheerleading? There’s no enjoyment in that for me. I have actually seen Leno play plenty of times and I stand by my statement. He was promising when he was very young but then plateaued and regressed. I can tell you, there were plenty of better keepers in the Bundesliga: Ulreich, Neuer, Hradecky, Pavlenka, Horn, Bürki, Fährmann, Sommer and Hitz are just flat out better keepers at this moment in time.

    2. it’s not about the money spent, it’s about what your spending the money on. no way in hades is leno worth £20 million.

      do i mind arsenal spending £35 million on a central defender? nope.
      did i mind arsenal spending £35 million on mustafi? yep.

      same with xhaka and now leno. he’s at arsenal now and i hope he’s worth it but conventional wisdom suggests otherwise. the club have been getting it wrong lately and everyone knew those aforementioned player weren’t worth the dough arsenal paid. arsenal competed with no one for their signatures and still overpaid. for crying out loud, valencia only asked £16 million for mustafi and arsenal paid more than double the asking price. wtf?

      1. 30 million for that little-bitty man from sampdoria that no one was asking about? nuts!

      2. You keep insisting that Valencia wanted only 16m for him.. How do you know this for a fact?

        In my interpretation of events, we were negotiating for both Mustafi and Lacazette at the same time. This meant that we were trying to get the price down at both Valencia and Lyon’s end to fit both players within our budget. In the end we prioritised the defender and got a second choice in Lucas Perez because 35 + 17 fit into our budget and 35 + 42 did not. You’re saying Arsenal didn’t pay the 16m for Mustafi. I find that hard to believe. For one, 35m for Mustafi, seeing the market for CBs of similar profile, seems a fair price. I can’t now remember who else, but Bailly cost the same. It was the going rate. Why wouldn’t Arsenal pay less than half that, especially when it basically fit into their budget? And I’m not denying that Valencia might have raised their price for Mustafi with a delay. But double? Don’t think so. Arsenal don’t go in for that sort of thing. For better or worse.

  25. So, if the theory is that we’re loading up for a big push to get back into the Champions League… then what? Back to getting eliminated in the first elimination round?

    This is the part that depresses me. Is what we’re seeing here strictly a financial decision to get back in before the new TV contract hits? Because without a serious restocking and rebuild with U23’s it will be two steps forward, three steps back. We’re not winning the title anytime soon with a bunch of 30-somethings.

    1. Ah, you sound like Alan Hansen. Who, famously, turned out to dead wrong.

      The perils of being too definitive before a ball is kicked.

    2. You build the U23s side by side, you replace the 30 somethings in 2 years when you’re back in the CL.

      Without those 30 somethings you need to pay more to get the younger talent. And you take more risk because despite their higher ceiling, they also have a lower floor. I think that is an unnecessary delay.

  26. Oh, one more thing. I’d imagine that we would have some trouble recruiting from the top shelf of the talent shop. The best footballers in the world are not going to want to play in Europa. Could be that me are missing a fair few of our targets, and having approaches rebuffed. We don’t know. Those things rarely to never come to light.

    So you have a choice. Do we hold on refreshing Cech/Ospina with, say, an Oblak, who turned you down because you are the 6th placed team in England (and who played 180 minutes against you and isnt dying to join you anyway?). Or do you make the calculation that the problem is acute there, you go for your secondary target?

    You are now short in midfield because JW told you he wants to start every week, and you are uncertain about Ramsey re-signing, but are definitely not going to let him enter free agency. Again, you get turned down by top shelf, early 20s talent… because you are the 6th place team in England.

    You essentially have 2 choices. A three year plan that keeps you out of CL, involving an investment in young, up-and-coming talent…. or a two-tiered plan that revolves around needs must/now, and once we achieve our first objective (CL) use that as a launchpad for top shelf recruitment.

    If youre a Fekir (see what I did there?) or Seri, you’re determined to leave, you want EPL and Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea and United are after you. Who would you sign on for? I’d sign for Klopp or Pocchetino.

    What we’re seeing isn’t madness…. it’s method, and method that makes sense. And we are in all likelihood trying for players who don’t want to come to us.

    1. Yes this exactly. What does rebuilding mean? Not signing players who make you immediately better because you can eventually get back to fighting for the top spot through younger signings?

      If we didn’t have money I would agree with that. But the stadium bill is now a small percentage of our income. We can afford to ‘waste’ some money to get back to the top table before launching a real challenge for top level talent, who seem to be more difficult and expensive to get without CL football.

  27. Leno can’t be worse than Ospina or Cech. And he was a pretty cheap signing in the scheme of things. The guy has a decent reputation so I wouldn’t worry too much about the stats. Sczeszny always had decent stats but he looked like an accident waiting to happen whenever he was on the pitch.

    I’m very happy to see the new regime taking decisive action in areas where we need change, rather than hanging around for YEARS making do with scraps like Wenger did.

    This is the first time we’ve dropped proper money on a credible keeper since Lehmann (and even that was peanuts), I can’t understand how a “fan” could fail to be excited by this.

  28. Was he average compared to other Bundesliga keepers or all top 5 league keepers?

    I’m sure different leagues have different data, so I’d be curious to see if that was just compared to Bundesliga or everyone

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