Arsenal squad demographics

125 comments

1. 6 out of the 10 over-30 players are only going to turn 30 this year or next year (Mkhi). Seems pretty balanced to me. I remember when the squad was young and we were all crying out for some experienced signings. #AgeBalanceFC

   1. But it’s not balanced because the majority of players over 30 are starters. If you had 9 players over 30, but they were the veteran back-ups to our core younger players (like Lichtsteiner will be to Bellerin)… that would be the preferred alternative.

      Cech, Monreal, Kos (when healthy), Ozil and Mhyki are all starters.

      I’d like to see us getting the average age of our starting line-up down to 24ish in the next 2 years. That would mean we have a sustainable, competitive future.

      1. 24?? No thanks. Been there done that with Wenger. Never want to see us play with just a bunch of kids again. 27-28 would be ideal but I’ll take 29/30 for the time being with a couple of youngsters thrown in.

         1. Since when is 24 a kid? 22-28 is prime years. 18, 19 year olds… those are kids.

            City’s roster:

            Sane – 22
            Jesus – 21
            Sterling – 23
            Ederson – 24
            B. Silva – 23
            Mendy – 23
            De Bruyne – 26
            Laporte – 24
            Zinchenko – 21
            Stones – 24

            Yes, they’ve got some older dudes like Kompany, D. Silva and Otamendi, but they’re the exception. Bravo and Toure never played. Walker, Gundogan and Delph were all 28… hardly over 30.

            We went older the past few years and sank to 6th.

            1. Actually we sank to 6th after we lost some age with Arteta, Per and Cazorla. Those last 2 guys, and Kos, were there in the squad lifting up the avg age, but they didn’t really play (or played at half fitness). We needed an experienced head in midfield to control/slow down play sometimes. We definitely needed an experienced head at CB instead of having to rely on Mustafi to be the leader.

               The issue obviously isn’t only of age. A 22 year old can be of great quality and maturity, while a 27 year old can be bad and reckless. But I think you’re entirely wrong about our problems stemming from our squad being too old.

            2. Except that a vast majority of those guys aren’t starting regulary other than Sane and Sterling. Not sure how KDB made your list as he is 26. Sane and Jesus are world class talents and obvious exceptions. Stones has done well but he only gets in because Kompany is injury prone. With every one healthy, City’s backbone is:

               Aguero: 30
               Fernandinho: 33
               D Silva: 32
               Gundogan: 27
               Otamendi: 30
               Kompany: 32

               You mentioned Mendy though he missed almost all the season with injury but it’s telling that Pep decided to roll with Delph, 28 over Danilo, 26. Oh yeah, and their other wingback, Walker is also 28.

               Let’s not forget a vast majority of their young players were bought last season for Pep’s project. Difference is they already have champions on their team who are mature and have a winning mentality. We don’t.

            3. Alright, I’m wrong. What do I know?

               Let’s get older and try and win the league next year. Let’s get Fellaini in, N’Zonzi in, Sokratis and Lichtsteiner and make our assault on the Top 4.

               And here I thought we’d brought in “Diamond Eye” Sven Mislintat to spot young talent and Unai Emery to teach them. A new “bold” direction forward. I guess I was wrong. We’re just West Brom on steroids.

               I’m out.

            4. Jack

               Licht is the same age as Per and only there for a season. Sokratis is younger than Kos (who he is replacing for at least half the season) Nzonzi is younger than Cazorla. Fellaini is not coming! Oh and we seem to have signed17 year old Adli who presumably has some assurances regarding his path to the first team. And our transfer business isn’t done yet. We’re still getting younger. We still have young players at the club. We’re just not blowing it all up in the name of a rebuild. I don’t get why it has to be EXCLUSIVELY young players that we buy.

            5. NYC, I take your points, but you’ve included 27 year old Gundogan over 26 year old KDB in the City “backbone”? That seems like a stretch. Also a stretch is that Pep’s decision to start Delph over Danilo at LB is even remotely about the fact that he’s 28 vs. 26!! You really think when Mendy went down, Pep was like, “quick, give me the ages, right down to the day, of the candidates to replace him in the team before I make my decision!”

               Look, some of the back and forth here strikes me as hairsplitting. Here’s what we should all agree on: all else being equal, a team of 24-26 year olds (with experience commensurate with their age) is roughly as likely to be successful as a team of 26-28 year olds; and both are to be preferred to a team of 30-32 year olds, assuming we’re playing a PL season and not one in Serie A. And obviously, one or two older heads thrown in with the 24-26 year olds is likely to improve them a bit.

            6. PFO, I didn’t include KDB because Jack had already included him on his list. Maybe I should have made that clearer. You are right we are splitting hairs with Danilo vs. Delph but it was for the sake of making a point.

      2. There’s another big problem having a lot of veteran players as backups: if you get several injuries (which were the norm for a long time with Arsenal) then you suddenly have a VERY old team.

2. This is going to be one of those he’s 29 until he’s 30 debates isn’t it?

   1. This is never going to be not funny!

   2. Mkhitaryan is only 29.5 until he is 29.6.

3. Goalkeeper : It’s going to be cech isn’t it? No point getting one unless Ospina leaves.
   Defenders : We’re doing great!
   Box to box : Can’t ask for more.
   Deep lying : Xhaka needs to be calmer on the ball but if Unai has a surprise here I’ll be all for it *cough Kroos cough*
   Defensive mid : For the love of god get one more.
   Attacking mid : Sort out Jack pls.
   Creative forwards : Ozil is sublime but if he plays with Ramsey and Xhaka that means no one is tackling in the middle.
   Forwards : PANTS JIZZED.

4. Young players, some of whom might make the squad within the next 2 years. Joao Virginia GK,
   Tafari Moore RB
   Osei-Tutu RB
   Zelalem CM
   Smith-Rowe AM
   Dragomir AM
   Bielik, CB/DM
   Sheaf CB
   Nwakali CM
   Mavididi FW
   Jeff AM
   Akpom FW

   And Adli CM who’s supposedly on his way.

   1. Youre padding that list, mate.

      Dont know a lot about many of those players, but Akpom and Zelalem cleary dont have futures at Arsenal. Akpom in particular deserves to be put out of his misery of prolonged, unrealistic hope.

      1. I only included those two because there’s a new manager at the club. They’re clearly in last chance saloon if that. For instance, we could look to sell Welbeck for cash, and add Akpom because of the HG quota and because Emery thinks he could maybe just spark something in him.

         Most of those players won’t make it. But it only needs 1 or 2, to make a difference to this whole argument.

         1. They left the last chance saloon through the bat-wing doors front entrance, and have disappeared into the sunset.

            1. I mostly agree with you, but you never know. Zelalem was at the training ground when Emery first visited. He’s bulked up.. It’s a clean slate for the guys in the reserves too. So yeah, unlikely, but you never know. Or rather, we’ll know during pre-season.

            2. –I agree with Claude that the list looks padded. Inevitably many promising players never make the step up.

               –Also agree with Shard that a new manager means players that looked like they were out the door might suddenly have a genuine chance to impress (can’t see it happening for Akpom; Zelalem maybe).

               I think of more relevance to Shard’s point, perhaps, is that our youngsters just finished a storming year, both at u-23 and u-19 level. It’s not a guarantee of success at senior level, but surely it’s a sign that we’ve got our best crop coming through in quite a while.

               Based on that, I think Nelson, Nketiah, AMN, and (perhaps) Willock all look the real deal–maybe not as future superstars, but as Iwobi-level players who will make the permanent jump to the first team squad (and heck, maybe Iwobi could still be a superstar in the future!). Nwakali, the Jeff, and Adli are all obviously extremely talented players, and it’s not crazy to think one of those three should make it and become a top-quality central midfielder for us. Smith-Rowe is a bit younger, but also very, very highly rated.

               I think there’s plenty of room for genuine optimism.

5. Oh, here we go again.

   1. I say go full-optimist BB!
      We’re talking about facts instead of rumors.
      The oldest are quite talented and have won league titles and/or World Cups.
      The youngest are learning what it takes to perform at a level to accomplish either/both.
      Best of all– Unai Emery? Has never lost a match as Arsenal manager. 😉

      Now back to our regularly-scheduled program:
      “Pissing vs. Moaning. Is Either More Constructive Than the Other?”

      jw1

      1. Lol

      2. Denny Crane

6. Liverpool predicted line up based on signings and appearances last season’s.

   Gk- mignolet 31
   Def- trent 20
   Gomez 20
   Lovren 29
   Van Dijk 27
   Mid- Henderson 28
   Keita 24
   Fabinho 25
   Forward- Firmino 27
   Salah 26
   Mane 27
   Average 28.4

   1. Gotta think it’ll more often be Winaljdum, Lallana, or the Ox over Henderson in there, but yeah…

      1. Winaljdum – 28 this season, lallana 31 and Ox 25 although Henderson is the club captain, Klopp has some interesting rotation to deal with to keep his team happy. I expect they are building up to their next major sale.

         My salient point is that Tim espouses the Liverpool strategy and it turns out they have a (slightly) older preferred 11 and that’s with two 20yr old full backs. They do have fewer over 30s but majority of squad is in the prime period so this is their peak moment under Klopp. Can they finally win something? Wenger did win trophies with this squad in it’s peak period and I believe Emery has a good opportunity to build on that base. Replace Cech with a 26 year old for example and you take a whole year off the average of that line up.

         1. The salient point is that your math was completely incorrect and that everyone here is suddenly thinking that I’m wrong.

            But you actually couldn’t have made my point for me any better than you did.

            1. Yes I somehow added a 12th player to that math my bad. I had Clyne in there on my notes and include his age (28). So yes Liverpool have built a preferred 11 of 25 like you say. I could cheat and use Milner as my left back and get an average of 27 😉

            2. Also, surely a more reliable way to look at this is not just to ask about average age, but to ask, “how many of a team’s best players are going to be reaching (at least the beginning of) the downslope of their careers in, say, 2 years?”

               Liverpool:
               Salah? No
               Mane? No
               Firmino? Maybe a little, but doubt his level will slip dramatically right at 29
               Keita? No
               Fabinho? No
               VVD? No
               That’s the spine of their team. And when you throw in the Ox, Winaljdum, another attacker (they’re very likely to get another one, e.g. Fekir), young fullbacks, and a new keeper like Allison (Mignolet bringing their average up but does anyone think he’ll be first choice for them going forward?), you’ve got a team who can challenge for at least 3-4 years before really needing a serious overhaul.

               Now Arsenal (obviously we could be pleasantly surprised and find out these guys continue to be great well into their 30’s, but for simplicity’s sake I’m gonna say “yes”, rather than “possibly” below):
               Ozil: Yes
               Auba: Yes
               Mikhi: Yes
               Laca: probably not a serious downturn, but like Firmino he’ll be 29
               Ramsey: not quite, but these next 2-3 are his prime years now, in contrast to Keita & Fabinho who have a few more
               Xhaka: No, thankfully
               Sokratis (I’m assuming he’s being bought to be our CB rock/leader in place of Per/Kos): Yes, though CB’s sometimes can be great into their 30’s?
               Cech: obviously yes (of course we might replace him, but doesn’t seem to be top of our priorities list)

               Throw in a couple of fullbacks, one good and young (Hector), another good and old (Nacho), and that’s the core of our group.

               I don’t think it’s negative spin to suggest our group is much more seriously in need of a rebuild in next 2 years than their group will be, regardless of average ages.

            3. Thanks Peter. This also illustrates my concern.

   2. Liverpool’s got a realistic two year window now to win the league. Then they’ll need to reassess as well.

   3. That is a great average age for a squad. They are favorites to win the title next year. With Fabinho and Keita arriving, they should be able to do it.

      1. I agree, Liverpool are favorites to win the League next year.

         And the average age for that squad is 25.8.

         1. Like the look of this ‘Pool side, but City again, surely.

   4. LOL – your maths are wrong.

      The average is 25.8

      1. The average age is skewed by two guys on that list who are 20. Clyne is going to reclaim his spot once he has overcome his injuries.. but either way, most of those guys are 24-29 sweet spot.

      2. Lol.. yeah it is 25.8 but still closer to 27 than 24.. and if you swap out one of those 20 year old full backs for Clyne who spent most of last season injured, it’s 26.5.. which is a really great average age I think.

7. Like I said in my post on the previous thread , which got binned into moderation btw, I’m totally cool with older players especially in strategic positions on the pitch.
   Also, players age differently footbalisticaly ( thank you Arsene) depending on the league, position,genetic make up and injury history, minutes played ,type of football played, diet and fitness regiment.
   Rooney’s legs “ died “ at 29 while Ronaldo was still quick at 32.

   You can field Tim’s oldest version of the line up and play smart attractive football , it all depends on tactics and strategy.
   Not every game has to be a track meet.

   The biggest difference between players in their early twenties and thirties is the recovery time between matches so rotation might be key.
   I hated the wholesale rotation done by Wenger and could never understand the logic behind throwing six or seven players together on days notice and expecting chemistry.
   Hopefully Emery does it on a few players at a time basis.

   1. It will be very interesting to see how Emery rotates. Especially if the plan is to play a pressing game. He’ll need to adjust his usual planning to the reality of English football (no winter breaks, increased physicality)

      This might also mean more meaningful game time for some young players if we’re going to make limited rather than wholesale changes.

8. Speaking of Liverpool, turns out Karius had suffered concussion prior to his “boneheaded “ mistake so maybe I do owe him an apology. Although perhaps he should’ve known he wasn’t right to continue but that’s a harsh call to make for any player in the CL final.

   I wonder what my friend Shard would’ve said if an Arsenal keeper had suffered a similar faith at Ramos’ elbow and Arsenal lost the final the way Liverpool did.

   “Real deserved to win” might’ve not been the sentiment , I’m guessing.

   1. You don’t have to wonder. I’d already told you what I thought about the elbow after I saw the incident post match (I’d missed it during), and before it was revealed Karius was concussed.

9. You mean you’d be visiting UA and signing the petition to ban Ramos from football for life and to have the CL final replayed?

   1. Yeah, just like I signed the petition to replay the UCL tie with Barcelona, or to ban Shawcross, Taylor, and Smith for life..

      And of course the media were all with me on that too.

10. I might’ve signed it.
    I hate premeditated thuggery in football and Ramos is its poster child.

11. I updated the post with a comparison between the top six teams, top 14 players (by minutes). Arsenal were the oldest last season. Not a surprise.

    1. Damn! If only we could lower our average age by 0.4, we could win the title!

       1. If Arsenal had the young core of de Bruyne, Sterling, Sane, Jesus, and Ederson we might well have won the League. Or the same could be said of Liverpool’s core of young players or Tottenham’s core of young players.

          The reality is that Arsenal were old last season and they were past by by the younger teams. And they are doubling down on the old player’s this season.

          1. Age is the new $! I’m trying to think if there are any other differences between City and Arsenal, and wow, yeah, I just can’t! Seriously man, those average ages tell us nothing about the respective qualities of those teams. You could go year by year and find teams winning the league with higher average ages than those below them. Some have even thought that a bonus.

             1. They tell us that Arsenal have an older team, which is a problem for the reasons I have explained.

             2. Or not, for the reasons others have explained.

                The point here is that you seem to think that a 0.4 difference in average age is somehow explanatory and contributive to league position, which I think is just bad reasoning.

                Like I said, since you’ve got this correlation=causation bug here, what in the world are we to make of situations when a team wins the league with a higher average age than many of other teams in the top four or six?

                I guess it must be down to age, then, as to why our home record was one of the best in the league but our away record was one of the worst! All those rickety legs don’t like the bus ride!

                Look, I think we can all get behind the idea that we don’t want a team full of 30-year-olds, but my issue here is that the possible negative side of signing a couple of older players is being blown a little out of proportion, particularly this early in the window.

             3. Where did I say that 0.4 difference in age average is correlated with League position? If you’re going to call me out on something, you really ought to have a least some evidence of the thing that you’re calling me out on. Not once in this article did I say that age of the team correlates with league position or that old players are why we finished 6th.

                In yesterday’s article I did say: “you don’t get into the Champions League by buying old men, you get in by buying top talent.” Is a player at top talent at age 35? 36? It seems unlikely. So, they are stopgaps and old men procured on a cheap.

                The point about the age difference is NOT that Arsenal will win the League if they just make the age average lower, your simplistic strawman. It’s that they will potentially win the league if they buy top talent and keep them together for a few years. Buying young talented players will also increase the club’s value over the next few years.

                This is not even a remotely controversial opinion: it’s not like I’m saying “Bunburyist is a a mild-mannered person who tries to see other people’s side of the story rather than tearing into people when they make an argument that he perceives to be weak.”

                Perhaps I wrote this opinion in an inelegant way that confused my readers into thinking that i believe a 0.4 year reduction in the delta age of the squad will result in a Champions League and Premier league trophies. I didn’t today and I didn’t yesterday. My argument has always been about quality and i don’t think a 35 year old is a quality replacement for a fullback in the premier League.

                But even if I had made the argument that it’s just about the age delta, I really think I’ve cleared that up now with ample comments in this post.

                Have a lovely day.

             4. Tell me, what was the rhetorical purpose of posting the rankings of the average age of each squad?

                You write: “The reality is that Arsenal were old last season and they were past by by the younger teams. And they are doubling down on the old player’s this season.”

                Correlation (it so happens that the younger teams finished higher than a minutely older Arsenal team) equals causation (it’s because of the age thing). If it had nothing to do with age, what’s the problem with doubling down?

             5. Because I was asked to on twitter. Someone was curious. It’s a good jumping off point for discussion and maybe future analysis but it’s not even remotely presented as analysis. I don’t understand why you think it is, unless your point here is just to try to make a mockery of me.

                Have the younger teams past Arsenal by? They have. Are Arsenal doubling down on old players? They are.

                Does that mean I think that young teams will always beat older teams or that the old team strategy will always fail, or that as Doc suggests above “tHaT I HaVe DoNE thE R sQUarEd ANALysIs>???”

                I’ve told you all of the reasons why it’s a problem to hire more older players. I think it kicks the can down the road, I think older players are a liability (for all of the reasons listed by Per Mertesacker), I think that older players represent depreciation and stagnation and I’d like to see my club grow and be positive in acquisitions.

                This is hardly “doom and gloom” or “hand wringing” and it shouldn’t be a controversial opinion.

             6. Sure, we’d all like to see the club grow. But what if you need to do this kind of transfer now in order to grow, which is essentially Stillman’s point in today’s piece. (I comment at more length on this below.)

                Like I said yesterday, I think the short-termism of adding players who are 30+ is in fact a long game. You worry they won’t be good enough and we’ll regress as a result next season. Hence why I get the impression that this is an unduly glum perspective on things. I don’t in any way think you are a fool for having emotions.

    2. I thought this was really interesting so I did this for the last 9 league champions (my maths is correct this time)

       Chelsea 09/10 =28.9
       Man U 10/11 = 29.5
       Man C 11/12 = 26
       Man U 12/13 = 26.9
       Man C 13/14 = 28.4
       Chelsea 14/15 = 27.8
       Leicester 15/16 = 27.9
       Chelsea 16/17 = 28.1
       Man C 17/18 = 27.1
       Average over the 9 seasons = 27.8

       Also 2004 Invincibles = 28.2

       1. What are you looking at? All players on the roster or just the top 14?

          1. I went with top 14 – 09/10 and 10/11 and the invincibles by apps the rest by mins. That United 10/11 team was 50% over 30. I also enjoyed 7 city 13/14 players all being 28.
             I was rough with the ages of players as whoscored has current age so I simply took of the number of years from the season end. I’m probably going to look at the United kids champions next just out of interest.

             1. It would be interesting to see each team’s trends since 2010.

                I just shared an article on twitter which shows an age bias toward older players in WC and Europa

       2. This gets at exactly my observation about all of this: we are assuming a higher squad age is bad. I don’t think that’s the case.

          1. Or at the very least we must put it in context, like Lishman is doing. At what age is a squad too old? Has there been a trend away from older players among title winning clubs in recent years? Those are the real questions here. Once we answer that, we can chart Arsenal’s place and decide whether they are truly on the verge of being too old.

          2. No, I have been very precise about why I think the age of this Arsenal squad is problematic, not just “old is bad.”

             FFS.

12. Monreal 32.3 killed me. Can I also have their religion, politics, and household income, just to round out the demographics? 😀

    Seriously, though, I just don’t see a big problem here, though I’m confident you can paint one! I like the average age of our starting eleven (Cech adds a lot to it, and I’m not sure he’ll be a regular starter, but we’ll see), there will be additions (the average age of our transfers so far is 25.5! so there!), the transfer window is still open (I feel confident we’ll sign a youngish goalkeeper, perhaps around 26.3 years old), and we have a new coach (he’ll be 47 in November) who will play a system we haven’t yet seen.

    I see Joel Campbell is off. Great. Just great. He was 25. Can’t understand why we wouldn’t keep him!

    1. There are a lot of problems with older players which Per mertesacker outlined in his exit interview when he retired aged 33: their recovery time between matches is greater meaning that they can’t physically play twice a week, they tend to be slower, their stamina over a season is reduced (you’re not going to have a team of 30 year olds pressing week in and week out), their ability to train every week is often hampered (or, in the case of Koscielny, he was simply incapable of training), the injuries that they pick up tend to be more serious, and there’s the danger that you might have to field a large number of ageing players in a single match which gives the opponent a huge physical advantage in numerous places on the pitch.

       Also, when it comes to team-building, hiring a large number of older players is a destructive strategy because you’re not increasing the value of your team. It’s all depreciation.

       But I think we can both agree that at a certain age a player is simply too old. I think we could all easily agree that 60 is too old. That 50 is too old. That 40 is too old. This reminds me of that old joke about whether you would suck a dick for $100. Most people would say no. But ask the same question with a larger payout and most people would suddenly get on their knees.

       See for me 30 is the limit. You shouldn’t have too many 30 year olds in your squad. You also shouldn’t have any players who are turning 35 or older. That’s just nuts.

       And I bet you if Arsenal signed a 38 year old DM most of you would be like.. ehhh.. that’s too old for me.

       So, we are literally agreeing on every point and just arguing about degrees.

       1. I guess this is right. I would ask that you reconsider 30 as your cutoff though. That may have been true a decade or so ago, but with new training, diet, etc. , I think we’re pushing the cutoff a little here. I don’t want to get anecdotal, but there are plenty of players over 30 who are playing at or near their best football – or even if not, still have a great deal to contribute. Ronaldo the obvious example, but I’m also thinking someone like Fernandinho, or Monreal even.

          1. I don’t think that the team should have a large number of players over 30, I wouldn’t just fire all the 30 year olds. But I definitely wouldn’t pay a 35 year old. Especially an outfield player. Double-especially a wide defender, who has a responsibility to play both forward and back in a game.

             I really hope Lichtsteiner proves me wrong.

             1. Do you think we are a better team with Lichtsteiner or without him? In other words, if you were Unai Emery and you were just the head coach, would you want him on this team or not?

             2. I think we are a much worse team with a 35 year old playing fullback in the Premier League.

             3. I hope Lichtsteiner is essentially there as an educator for Hector and pray that Hector stays fit

             4. I think Unai would tell you that he makes this a deeper, better squad assuming he comes close to replicating his performance from his prior seasons, and why should he not?

                For someone with such a keen mind for empiric evidence, it’s fascinating that you seem to close off alternate hypotheses for what you observe without properly disproving them first.

                i.e. Your hypothesis could be that Arsenal football club are a worse team than liverpool due to an age delta of 0.4; you could seek to disprove that by analyzing every PL finish versus the composite age delta as you have defined it here and presenting the r squared for correlation, and then presenting that in the context of the limitations of your data while acknowledging that 1000 other measured and unmeasured confounding variables could influence the outcome-exposure association you’re studying. 538.com is the only website I’ve seen that does this sort of analysis, and I’m not saying that’s what you have to do in order to post a blog. Obviously I come here regardless because I thoroughly enjoy your work. I just wish you acknowledged that you could be completely wrong about all of this because it’s very clear to most of us that that’s the case.

             5. I have had to say this now four times, this is the fifth: it is not my fucking hypothesis that age average over 14 players has a correlation to league position. Nor that reduction in that average would result in higher league position.

                I’ve reached my Jules Winnfield point with you and Bunburyist setting this up as my argument when I have very clearly stated that it is not.

             6. I am still laughing at the pomposity of you demanding I admit I’m wrong about a point that you and Bunburyist made up about my argument.

                I’ve given my position now 6 times. No mas.

                Good day.

             7. What is your hypothesis? And who the heck is Jules Winnfield? Sorry to have upset you BTW, not my intention.

             8. I don’t think my tone was quite that aggressive, but I apologize for offending you. This argument is not worth that much to me.

       2. Except that you don’t actually believe this is all just a matter of subjective thresholds. If it were, then the matter of whether a player was actually finished at 30 would depend on how your brain worked.

          I like the experience and edge that Sokratis 29.998 and Lichtsteiner 34.5 bring, particularly to a defense that has for far too long looked callow, confused, and soft. I’ll let our fitness gurus sort out the recovery stuff, and our management sort out the plans for now and the future. If it all goes t*ts up, then I’ll happily start with the grumbling.

          I think at this stage, though, we should have some grace for the project, and perhaps even some trust that our management team is thinking both short and long term. Under Wenger, we became conditioned to think long term on most everything (often to the detriment of ‘now’), to believe players are finished at 30, and to be accountants.

          I’m not worried. Let’s see what the rest of this window brings. I’m excited for the start of the season!

          1. The defense has looked that way because the coaching was non-existent. Don’t you remember the famous blowout where they leaked to the press (speaking of, I wonder if it was Ivan who leaked that story about the players) that they were basically coaching themselves? Yes, Lich and Sokratis bring experience, but not more experience than Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal, Petr Cech, and Laurent Koscielny who were all members of that callow, confused, and soft defense. Those men were not only experienced but Premier League seasoned. And it’s not like Bellerin and Mustafi are street urchins. These are players with at least three years of experience of top level football.

             As for edge? I watched almost every game of BvB for the last few seasons, Sokratis is not an edgy player. He’s an injured player, meaning he’s often out with injury, but not exactly edgy. He’s a pretty average defender as far as I can tell: sometimes he switches off and lets players run right past him easily. And as for Lichtsteiner, maybe he is an edgelord. I have watched Juventus (but only in the Champions League and that Netflix special) and I can’t recall too many times he impressed me with his edginess but perhaps I missed something.

             What matches do you recall of these players where they demonstrated a tough edge and great wisdom?

             1. Oh, I didn’t watch any BvB matches, but if I can take your word for it, then I can also take the word of other people who watched BvB regularly, like Lewis Ambrose, who said that Sokratis had a bad season in 2017-18, but prior to that has been outstanding. One bad season does not a dud make.

                I just don’t get the need to be this negative this early. Terribly premature.

             2. But maybe with adifferent manager they’ll be better organised. Shall we wait and see before we descend into doom and gloom?

             3. It’s not doom and gloom to be worried about my club pursuing a transfer policy for older, free, players for all of the reasons I have outlined here over the last two days.

13. Auba is younger than Walcott and Giroud
    Miki is (slightly) younger than Alexis
    Mavropanos is younger than Gabriel
    Kola is younger than Gibbs
    Ox leaving was painful, but Iwobi is his replacement and younger. (Also not as good yet)
    AMN is younger than Coquelin

    And as already pointed out Nzonzi would be younger than Santi.
    Sokratis is younger than Kos/Per
    Licht is the only one who is older.

    Who says we’re getting older?

    And the issue is of quality ultimately. If Adli is not better than Xhaka, he shouldn’t play. If Nelson is better than Miki, he should play. Competition for places applies to young guys having to fight for their place into the team too. Their path should not be blocked, but it should not be completely open.

    But I think we’re not going to agree on this if we already don’t, so no more talking about squad demographics for me. I want the World Cup to start now.

14. Comment on the update: Ok, so we are slightly older but not by much. I think our average age is skewed by Cech who is 36 but not an outfield player. My takeaway is that we are a “mature” squad but not quite over the hill yet. I think I will give it one more season before starting to worry about that. Lord knows there is enough to worry about re: the team as it is.

    1. Seriously! I don’t know why Tim is suddenly bent out of shape about age. As far as I can tell, the previous age aversion by Arsenal was the cost cutting measure (not the signing of veterans with no projected resale value that they are doing now) and it seems to have affected Tim on a deep level.

15. Tim:

    Man Utd just signed a 19 year old fullback for 19m. Mourinho describes him as the best fullback in his age group in the world. He can play on the left or right, apparently. He’s only played a handful of senior games.

    Would you rather we signed a player like this, for a price like that, to backup/challenge Bellerin, or Lich? Keeping our budget in mind, of course.

    1. That’s the problem with signing a 19 year old. He may be the best fullback of his age NOW, at least according to the evaluators at MU; but what about next month or next year? Who is going to guarantee that? You need to take chances on these players because some of them really will become the best, but most often for whatever reason they never stay as far ahead of the pack as they started; in fact, most studies of high performance education show that kids who have to struggle a bit more early on for their grades do better in the long run. So sure, get that guy, but don’t expect that he will become what you hope he will become. A guy like Lichtsteiner is the exact opposite of that. You can write a thesis on exactly who he is and what he will bring to your club. Neither is right or wrong and in fact I will say you need both.

       1. Not to mention that it’s coming from Mourinho who loves to exaggerate and doesn’t have a favorable history of developing youngsters.

16. Yes. Of course you sign that player at that price.

    Selling:
    Campbell – 3m
    Lucas – 8m
    Asano – 1m
    Akpom – 2m
    Chambers – 14m
    Welbeck – 30m
    Ospina – 5m
    Bielik – 2m
    Jenkinson – 2m
    Elneny – 10m

    That’s an additional £77m which in addition to the £50m we already have and minus the £20m for that youngster leaves Arsenal with £98m with which to buy a center back, keeper, winger, and midfielder. 10 on a keeper, 18 on a CB, 30m on a midfielder., 30m on a winger.

    That’s a significantly great improvement on what we have all around.

    1. I’m all for the fire sale (I’d keep Bielik until we know whether or not he’s gonna be a good player or not, mind). But no way you’re getting 30m for Danny Welbz unless he absolutely lights up the World Cup!!

    2. I love you Tim but you’re treating this as if it were football manager. I have so many problems with this.

       Where did you get those rather arbitrary seeming valuations? And why would you think doing these deals is necessarily going to improve the squad? As near as I can tell you want to sell fringe assets, many of which you are selling very low on indeed (Asano for 1m?) in order to pad the core of the team with 3-4 more reliable performers. But how do you know those guys would even be upgrades? The peri 30M market might net you another Welbeck (since that’s what you think he’s worth), and I doubt you’d get a much better keeper than Ospina for 10M.

       Might biggest issue though is that although you make this sound so simple, the reality is you not only need the stars to align to move this many players in one window but you also destabilize not only the depth of your club but also impact the culture in a very negative way. Suddenly, nobody feels like they are safe. Guys anywhere near the fringe will start asking themselves if they are next. That is no way to start life under your new manager. Even more importantly, you haven’t even given that new manager an opportunity to grasp what he has in those guys that you’re so desperate to move on from.

       And to punctuate all of this is the underlying, very definitely flawed premise that if we weren’t competitive last season it’s because we are too old. It’s a classic correlation does not equal causation attribution error.

       1. Valuations from Transfermarkt (except Welbeck, which I thought was too low at just £15m).

          As for making it sound simple, I was given a very simple question and answered it just as simply. I don’t have time for a 1000 word exegesis about how “buying a player isn’t like buying a loaf of bread”. It was an offhand reply to a very short “what if” question.

          Most keepers are better than Ospina. Szczesny cost £10m.

          Most of the players listed have either spent all their time on loan, are rumored to be on the chopping block, received almost no playing time last season, excess players (we have too many CBs), or are just dead weight in the squad. I’m not going to go through every player and talk about why i picked them because 1) see my answer about offhand and 2) see my answer about 1000 word exegeses.

          Cheers.

          1. Transfermarkt tends to underestimate young players especially; you have to pay a premium for their possible future potential. At any rate, I hold to my point about what a firesale like this would do to the club morale and to the point that the replacements secured from said firesale probably doesn’t move the needle very much. It’s reasonable to disagree about those things, and I do thoroughly, but that’s ok, I’m here to debate and not to be agreed to death. I’m not asking for exegeses (good word by the way!), just an acknowledgment that there are no easy fixes and that you could in fact be wrong about all of this.

             1. You’re concerned about a fire sale of players who have mostly been out on loan or who don’t feature very often? Did you know that we sold 7 players last season? And every few years, this is just what happens: young players who didn’t make it get culled.

                One more point needs to be made here: buying all these old players requires much more constant turnover, which must be a worry for you as well.

    3. There is somewhat of a catch 22 here. If you are advocating buying players around 23-25, which is when they usually take the next step in their career, you are talking about players who are already on everyone’s radar which means you are talking about spending around 50 mil for a midfielder. We paid 30 mil for Xhaka and Mustafi and see what that got us. So if you want to buy young, you have to go younger but then you end up with a bunch of 21 year olds who are riskier, more immature and you will need to balance that with older, more experienced heads.

    4. Unlike the others I have no problem with this. I asked if you’d do that deal over Lich and you said yes, here’s why. The numbers you gave are ballpark – some low, some high, let’s say they balance out. You implied that, with more funds from player sales, it’d be worth investing a chunk on a backup RB with potential. I could ask if it’s worth, even with sales, investing that 19m on an even better MF, for example, but it’s beside the point.

       I think that the crux of the Lich thing is this – you’re highly skeptical of his age and don’t believe he can keep up with the pace of the prem at 35 no matter how good shape he is. I have some more faith in the scouts than you do, which is either smart or foolish. Who can say? It’s all risk.

       I will disagree that Pool are favorites though. They’re a solid 2nd place, but let’s not get carried away. This city team is record breaking.

       Sometimes it’s worth looking at a team’s weaknesses rather than their strengths. For Pool, they don’t have a good keeper, and only one good CB. Salah had what I guess is a season he won’t repeat. That’s pretty much it. But they have some unknowns – Keita and Fabinho are untested in the Prem and in Klopp’s system. Even a player like Bakayoko, Fabinho’s former teammate, flopped. City currently have no such question marks about them. Nor were they reliant on the surprise luck/genius of one player. They’re still the favorites.

       1. That’s a good point re: Pool’s weaknesses. I just think Klopp will do a far better job of developing/acclimatizing his new players than Chelsea did.

       2. All transfers carry risk, but I think that Licht — one year, reasonable salary, solid backup/competition to a young Indispensible — is one that I am cool with. It tell me…

          1. We intend to put square pegs in square holes (fancy that, no Ainsley Maitland Niles out of position)

          2. The brains trust clealy thinks it makes more sense to drop zero transfer fee and a 1-year contract on a good, seasoned player, than 20m on a guy ggod enough to play but that Bellerin could keep out of the team for 6 years (if he stays an Arsenal player that long). I cant argue with that reasoning. Could we have found and signed a 29/30 year old RB in similar terms to Licht? Maybe. But he’d have wanted far more than a 1-year contract.

          Solid arguments against, but the old men signings don’t worry me. Or won’t, until I’ve seen when we’ve done when the window closes.

          Here’s what I like… relatively swift and decisive transfer business. We were negotiating tough with Monaco over ca. 65 – 70m (I stand corrected on this) valuation on Lemar, only to completely cave on the last day of the window and offer 90m. Transfer management had become completely dysfunctional. It looks, at least, as if it’s being managed more professionally.

          1. Don’t you think that 90m offer had to do with the fact that we received a 60m offer for Alexis on the day?

             I don’t deny that we were hesitant sometimes to pull the trigger on a transfer but this Lemar thing seems a bad example. I think if Monaco accepted 70m for Lemar, we would have sold Alexis to City for 40-45m and the deals would be done earlier.

             We also haven’t negotiated a major transfer with any club yet. The Auba deal was complicated but not really by money. I don’t think we’ll be all that different in how we operate, because fundamentally we’re the same club with the same issues, which includes not paying off shady agents huge amounts.

             1. Anytime you have Koscielny and Giroud trying to last minute twist Lemar’s arm in the French camp to sign for Arsenal, you have a f***** up transfer.

                An all-powerful Wenger created a number of dysfunctions, and transfer management was one. We were more efficient in a one-month window in January, than we’d been the previous 3 summers combined.

                And this is one area where I’d like to give props to the new regime. We may not agree with all their choices, but they seem capable of acting with speed and decisiveness.

17. Of interest…

    Man United sign exciting Portuguese RB Diogo Dalot, 19. He’ll be back up to Valencia, 33. That made me chuckle. It’s inversely similar to our Bellerin/Licht situation. And it both underscores and supports Tim’s central argument, while at the same time showing that Arsenal’s logic isn’t wonky at all.

    Liverpool are looking at Stoke’s Shaqiri, if the story is to be believed. He is 26. If they do sign him, it’ll \\be another development in support of Tim’s argument.

    Still say it’s early, though. A few more chapters in our transfer stories to be revealed.

    Just leaving those here…

18. There are examples and counterexamples of players over 30 outrunning players much younger than them. I guess what I’d like to see happen is that we isolate and judge Sokratis and Lichtsteiner on their merits instead of writing them off as liabilities to the squad based on a generalization about players 30 and over.

    There’s a project going on here, and yes, obviously, it involves adding players of experience and grit, one of whom is almost 30 and another of whom is almost 35. It also involves adding a 17-year-old kid from PSG, one of the highest rated young players in Europe. I’m sure it will also involve adding a reasonably young GK, a DM (btw, we are not spending £35m on Nzonzi, that’s just silly talk right there), and possibly a young CB. It has further been rumored that we are looking at Forsberg. The window is open, and further surprises await, and after it’s closed we’ll get a bit of a clearer picture about what that project looks like. And when next summer’s window closes, we’ll get an even clearer picture. And, when we see the team play, we’ll get a clearer picture about the effectiveness of all our players, young and old.

    Last summer, I argued against people who felt optimistic that something would change and Wenger would get the team playing again. I did this because I had watched Wenger for almost two decades, and I could see the patterns forming. Nothing was going to change. It was entirely predictable, and so the season went.

    Now we got change. It’s going to look different, and more developments await. For me, I’ve had my optimism button reset. Let me be clear: by optimistic, I mean I’m predicting fourth next May, but mainly I’m just looking for improved performances from the team. A better points tally, a better away record, a more organized defense.

    That is all achievable by this squad. I really believe that. I really believe that our performances have not reflected the talent we have, and it was a result of a management style that had long stagnated. I just can’t read the arrival of Sokratis and Lichtsteiner (as joining some other experienced players) as in any way inhibiting this squad from realizing my hopes for Arsenal this year. They may even be a factor in realizing them.

    Finally, Aubameyang! The fact that he’s 28.99 does not in any way diminish my belief that he’s still got it, and will have it for another three years! A full season of Aubameyang sounds wonderful to me.

19. Come on silly people. Mislintat is a fraud. He’s going for his Dortmund retreads, including guys they tried to sign at Dortmund like Lichtsteiner and Forsberg. Mavropanos was scouted by Dortmund. Remember Malcom in January? That was a Dortmund target. This crew is out of ideas already and especially our head of recruitment. He xeroxed his scouting binders and loaded up a few USB sticks in the Dortmund office the night before he told them he was leaving.

    1. What a silly thought. I’m not necessarily enamoured by Mislintat because he scouted Dembele (everyone knew he was something), but this line I’m starting to see is just plain lazy. Ultimately everyone is an everyone target, because everyone knows who the obvious next stars are. That’s why they cost so much. It’s the bigger risks, the lesser lights, thay matter. Mavropanos was not difficult to sign, for example. If he makes it, that’s good scouting.

    2. Ok, so…if Mavropanos turns out well, does that mean Mislintat is a fraud? If Forsberg is the next big thing, is Mislintat a fraud?

       Aubameyang. Yup, that means Mislintat is a… Fraud? Huh?

       Mkhitaryan was selected by a fraud, as was Ousmane Dembele. Only a fraud would have advised BvB to go after Dembele.

       Mislintat is new to the job. We would expect him to bring his work with him, right? Why is anyone surprised that the targets he identified at Dortmund are also ones he wants for Arsenal? Have any of the players he’s brought in so far proved to be duds?

       He was brought here exactly because of his excellent work at Dortmund. Care to explain why it’s a problem to copy those methods? But actually “continue” is the right word, because only a fraud would copy. You get that, right?

       1. I’m saying it wasn’t him that identified squat, it was Dortmund the club and the whole scouting team there. Aubameyang was lighting it up in France, you would need to be an idiot to miss on Dembele. We’re being sold a load of crap. Eight months on the job and it’s just Dortmund targets or leftovers. Please. Tell me what Sanllehi did at Barcelona? Nobody knows. Supposedly he’s got contacts. So does my secretary. It’s all b.s. Emery will turn out to be a happy accident and be gone in 2 years when Barcelona come looking for a Basque coach.

          1. Yeah, I see that you’re saying that, but I’m just hearing a lot of whack-job assumptions about who, what, and whose grandmother was responsible for what. What do you know about BvB’s scouting network, and Mislintat’s role there? What did Sanllehi do at Barcelona? Your answer is “nobody knows,” which includes you, obviously (so absence of info is for you a chance to seize on the worst), but not, presumably the people who chose him.

             I can’t imagine you’re so dim-witted that you imagine the hiring process went something like Gazidis doing some research, finding nothing (because nobody knows), and then hiring him?

             You’re a ignorant crank, and that’s the only thing we learn from your posts.

             1. Thanks Bun, my thoughts exactly. What’s the matter with some of these people?

             2. Hahahahaha when you don’t have a good response then resort to name calling.

                Tell you what, I’ll check in in a month. Then we can compare what’s been done in the transfer window. Don’t get your hopes up. Sven and Raul take their orders from the Kroenkes who don’t want to spend a dime on players if they can help it. Sven’s Dortmund mojo is dried up. Raul was one of 20 backroom guys they have at Barcelona, Sid Lowe said he had no idea what Raul did at Barcelona. Time will tell. Don’t get your hopes up.

             3. I apologize for the name-calling. No need. However, I’ll reiterate that I don’t believe you have any knowledge of how BvB’s scouting system worked, so unless you have some insider take on this you’d like to share, I’ll assume that the information we do have is correct, namely that he worked his way up the ranks at BvB as a scout, and based on a track record of success was eventually named chief scout. Before he came to Arsenal, his reputation was such that Bayern Munich wanted to hire him as their technical director. You don’t get that far in the industry by being a fraud.

                I think your insult is completely baseless.

          2. Mislintat was a regular at the Dortmund training ground before Tuchel banned him. This suggests to me that he likes to observe players at the club and look for players who can complement them and the system already in place. At Arsenal he’s been here a short time and there’s a new coach. So for some clear needs it makes sense to go back to what he knows well rather than try to prove how great he is at pulling rabbits out of hats.

             Also, he’s supposed to be really good at combining traditional scouting with the use of data. I believe that was number 1 reason he was recruited. Because Wenger felt that the StatsDNA recommendations were not quite up to it. I think Sven is supposed to both use and help refine that data.

             Sanhelli I think does what David Dein did for us back in the day when it was a simpler world. Negotiating with agents, not necessarily in a formal setting, and moving within the corridors of FA and UEFA.

             1. I’m on that same page Shard. You’ve read my thoughts elsewhere with regard to digging I’ve done (as much as can be done) regarding StatDNA’s current-to-future benefits.

                Extrapolation on present moves performed by SIRE are just scattershot. There’s a plan. And there’s a plan for the plan. And contingencies for plans that don’t go to plan. With (almost) all of it down to Sven, StatDNA and timing.

                I’m sure that sounds like a crazy guy trying to sound a little-less-crazy.
                But I’ve seen this movie before.
                Done right? It ends well.

                jw1

             2. Jw1
                I almost included a sentence on asking you to explain and on your ideas on StatsDNA and where they are. But I thought it’s best to leave that to you.

                I went with the fact that Sven’s reported strength was combining stats and traditional scouting to make great buys. I really do think that’s why he was brought in.. and probably promised a greater remit than he had elsewhere, what with where we are in terms of structure and possessing our in house stats company for many years.

20. Claude
    I think they did a very good job in January turning around our attack with zero budget increase (near enough)

    And I’m excited to see them move quickly this time around. All I’m saying is that we haven’t seen them in a situation where they’re trying to prise away a young star from a club not expressly looking to sell.

21. you guys have been chatting it up. i’ve been out of the loop so i’ll try and catch up.

    n’zonzi? yes, all day long. he’s perfect. he’s physically imposing, he knows the league, he’s fundamentally sound, and he’s an experienced leader. ideal dm.

    i agree with the band playing the tune of the two old heads being stop-gaps. however, as a dortmund fan, i’ve never been fond of sokratis. i believe he’ll be a huge disappointment in england. we’ll see.

    also agree with the notion of selling ozil. the only place i see him going is psg; emery’s old club. they’re are the only ones who can pay his wages.

    there’s a young argentine kid named giovanni lo celso who plays for psg. i think he could be the way forward. he’s in his early twenties and is very solid. he’s probably more of a #8 than a #10 but he’s very sound. problem is i’ve heard rumors of psg wanting to offload verratti. if that’s the case, it’s probably to make room for lo celso. we’ll see.

    the problem with buying big young players is no one knows what direction arsenal will go right now. emery has to establish himself before he can genuinely attract top talent. we’ll see.

22. I do get Tim’s concern that we have just bought a bunch of players and will have to buy them all over again in a couple of years. However you can’t make sweeping statements about age, and taking the average of the 14 starters is just bad use of stats (sorry, but I think it is) because it’s totally decontextualized.

    To put it another way, I don’t agree that Sokratis and Lichtsteiner are the problem. Auba, Mkhi and Ozil are the problem. Area by area, and focusing only on age:

    At GK we have a 36 y.o. and a 29 y.o. back up. Not obviously geriatric for keepers, buying here would be quality- rather than age-driven

    At CB: Sokratis, Mustafi, Chambers, Holding, Mavropanos (plus Kos). The age profile there is excellent with 3 younger players set to step up.

    At RB we have a 23 y.o. who will hold that slot for years and an experienced back-up for free. Perfect for the moment. When Bellerin hits 25-6 we can bring in a 19 y.o. who won’t mind being back-up.

    At LB we need to identify a young prospect to slot in behind Kolasinac in the pecking order, before Monreal has to step down. Again right now the age profile is fine.

    In midfield, we currently have Ramsey, Wilshere, Xhaka, Elneny, AMN. Absolutely no age problem. If anything, a little more experience wouldn’t go amiss.*

    But up front, we have the MAO part of LMAO all getting long in the tooth, and they are going to be the most expensive players to replace. This is where we either need to develop players like Iwobi, Nelson et al or recruit (and pay $$ for) some serious MFing talent.

    *Jack is a weird one, he’s just 26 but he’s already got a decade of top-level first team experience. And the legs of a thirty-two year-old.

    1. Not for the next 2 years though. When we hopefully have CL. And Nketiah just scored 2 goals in an England U21 semi final. The guy who Wenger named as closest to the first team squad. Ahead of Nelson (who is in the last year of his contract)

       The CL money has also just increased including with payouts based on coefficient. We need to get back in there asap

       1. Yeah agreed. We have 2 years ahead of watching that front line which makes me very happy.

          Tim’s general point stands that in an ideal world we would bring in top quality 20-25 y.o. players because we use them for longer and sell them for more money.

          As a general point, it’s unarguable, but I don’t think it’s fair to say that it’s a particular problem for Arsenal because actually over the medium term (which is about as far ahead as you can usefully look) our age profile is good except for a couple of key positions, and you can say the same about most PL squads.

    2. Kolasinac is only 24, that’s young for a defender. He could still develop.

       I think at least 2-3 more top drawer seasons are on tap from LMAO unless they get injured.

       Isn’t it nice to see our club *acting like a big club klaxon* staying competitive by not selling these guys in their primes?? Right guys??? LOL

23. What worries me about the current transfer strategy is that the Gunners are acting like Manchester United and City and think they can throw money out the window. When you sign players who are 28 or over (Aubameyang, Mkhitaryan, Lichtsteiner and maybe Papastathopoulos) and the core of your squad is not that young anymore (Cech, Koscielny, Monreal, Ozil, Ramsey, Lacazette), it means your team only has a shell life of 2-3 years. City and United can afford to rebuild every 2-3 years because they have plenty of cash. The Gunners are not in that category. Arsenal should do like Liverpool and Spurs, which have a recruitment strategy that gives their teams a shell life of 5 years or so. When they sign players, they mostly look at players nearly developed or just entering their peak years (Alderweireld, Sanchez, Davies, Trippier, Aurier, Dier, Eriksen, Moura, Alli, Son for Spurs, Gomez, Robertson, Van Dijk, Matip, Wijnaldum, Ox, Can, Firmino, Salah, Mane, Solanke for Pool). That’s the kind of strategy Arsenal should follow. Of course, there are a couple of old signings for each club (Llorente, Sissoko at Spurs, and Milner, Klavan at Pool), but the core of their team is healthy and can last 5 years.

24. Greg, Shard and Josh, I haven’t been as excited about a young gunner as I am about Nketiah for a long, long time. Cesc at 17, maybe. Couldn’t believe what I was seeing when I saw the young Spaniard bossing a midfield (Who the hell did he think he was? A 35 year old? 😉 )

    In young Edward Nketiah, we have something special on our hands. Comparisons are never perfect, but I see a lot of Ian Wright in him.

    One of the reasons that I’m chilled with the moves that the new regime has made so far (besides it being too early in the window to be definitive), is that I can’t wait to see what Emery does with the young raw material he has.

    Nketiah.

    Remember that game where Holding bossed Diego Costa into submission? There’s plenty there. I believe that he’s a better defender than Chambers, who in turn has looked a much improved player.

    Mavropanos may be closest to breaking through, though. He looks a fearless player.

    Bellerin is nowhere near the player he can become. I watched Debuchy in a Europa game at RFB. By minute 70, he was dead on his feet, puffing and at walking pace. Young Hector has a lot to add to the defensive side of his game, but he’s a terrific athlete. He’s running as much in the 5th as in the 95th. Im glad we’re getting good cover for him, because wing back and full back are among the most physically demanding positions on the pitch.

    Iwobi on his day can be a wonderful amalgam of pace, physicality, touch, dribbling ability and close control. In an Arsenal shirt, he snatches at good chances in the box. Improve that, and we have a 50m player.

    Maitland-Niles. Fully of running and cunning, and his last manager rated him as a clean, superb tackler. He’s “playerish” (another Wenger gem). Or as they say stateside, a “baller.”

    Nelson, Beilik…. more.

    But Eddie is ready. Really excited about him.

    1. Where do you see Nketiah being used this coming season? Europa, perhaps? Or do you imagine he’s ready to play as a sub in the PL? I’ve never seen him play, but people are raving about him.

       He could really bring down our average age! 😀

       1. Imma ignoring the last line. Some of us like to keep the peace, see… 🙂

          Sub appearances, league cup, early Europa rounds. Realistically though with Auba, Laca, Welbeck and possibly even Perez, he’s got his work cut out even getting on the bench. There’s a tough decision awaiting the coach, and I feel it’s around Welbeck or Perez.

          When Cesc was coming through, Arsene made the decision to allow Vieira to go to Juventus, and it wasn’t just about age. At some point you realise that you’ve got to create the space and opportunities for a gifted youngster. I could be wrong, but I regard Nketiah as one such.

25. Isn’t there a case to be made for outsmarting ourselves here? All this to do over the age of our best players, projecting years into the future, and what we’re not talking about very much recently is how good this team can be right now. This isn’t the NBA, the team without Lebron James can still win the championship because football is truly a team sport. I think about the sports dynasty that has presided over the NFL, a sport where each team carries a 53 man roster, while operating under a salary cap and being handicapped in the draft due to their own success year after year; that team has somehow still found a way to go to 10 consecutive AFC championship games. Ok, it’s not a perfect analogy for football but I follow this team closely and there are some lessons that can be learned:

    1. Most important is total buy-in and commitment to the team philosophy from absolutely everyone in the building.
    a. Continuity of leadership and consistency of message from leadership
    2. Retain your very best players, those who can decide games by themselves, on competitive contracts according to what the market for them dictates
    3. Maintain a strong middle class throughout each department in the team so a single injury doesn’t result in too much lost productivity
    a. Under-valued players can be found every year; recovery from injury, poor utilization for the player’s skills (poor scheme fit in NFL parlance), or advanced analytics that predict regression to the mean are all potential ways to identify such players.
    4. Double dip on young/developmental players, stockpile the academy. The more tickets you punch, the more likely you are to win the lottery, and that holds true for the NFL draft just as it does for the Asanos, Bieliks and Mavropani of the world.

    Building this type of structure can take years, and even the Patriots got (super) lucky in some of their early identity forming wins. But this general blueprint can and should be applied by our new leadership.

26. I thought Tim Stillman’s piece today really spoke to some of the arguments / discussion here, particular with regards to expectations for the transfer window this summer (and next season).

    I’ve been saying we should wait and judge this project / new regime until after the window and after next season. However, I think perhaps it might be better to say we should wait until after next summer’s transfer window. If Stillman is right, then the strategy this summer is largely to keep faith with what’s already at the club while adding some old heads (stop gaps, if you like). Makes me wonder whether we’ll be seeing many players come in who are in the 23-27 range.

    However, it’s still possible to view it as part of a good strategy. (Time will tell, obviously.)

    The tweet that Stillman quoted is of interest here:

    “What people don’t understand is you DO NOT rebuild a squad when you’ve just finished 6th. It makes it almost impossible (if not risky) because it might get worse. Esp with young players. The vision is clear. Get back into the CL using ready made experience and then rebuild.”

    1. “What people don’t understand is you DO NOT rebuild a squad when you’ve just finished 6th. It makes it almost impossible (if not risky) because it might get worse. Esp with young players. The vision is clear. Get back into the CL using ready made experience and then rebuild.”

       Again, I think everyone is missing the point: it’s about TALENT not age. We have seen a LOT of teams buy “ready-made” players and watch them fail. Liverpool did it for years. United has been doing this until just a few years ago when they went with Martial, Rashford, and Pogba. Tottenham spend decades trying to get experienced players in that would get them to the holy land. You rebuild when you have to rebuild and I would argue that there is actually just as much risk in ready-mades than there is with younger players, maybe even more risk, so i disagree with that argument. I also think that teams get stuck in a constant “rebuild” mode if they hire older players, which requires a LOT of investment that this club doesn’t have.

       Interestingly, I think that this club might make it into the top four this season but not because we added a 35 year old and an injury-prone 30 year old CB. Neither of them are the talent. The talent was, as people pointed out below, acquired over the last two season (Xhaka, Laca, Baum). Given how close Arsenal were last season (especially with their amazing home form), I think the club has taken a more nuanced approach and decided that Emery is going to be good enough to improve the team enough to beat Man U and Chelsea to the top four spot. Especially if we add a (talented) midfielder.

       What Emery needs is just slightly better defense and the key to that isn’t actually the defenders but the forwards and midfielders.

    2. I don’t understand why you can’t rebuild AND get back into the Champions League. In fact, that’s what Spurs and Liverpool did. When Spurs and Pool finished 6th, Pochettino and Klopp rebuilt their teams with better and younger players.

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