Arsenal need a real DM and a culture change to compete for the title

50 comments

1. Ah, the eternal arsenal defensive midfielder discussion, how many have we missed out on\been linked to? Let me count the ways…

   matuidi
   mbia
   m’vila
   n’zonzi
   alonso
   bender
   kondogbia
   gonalons
   schneiderlin
   wanyama
   gundogan
   khedira

   I feel like this is just scratching the surface.

   1. Oh, I forgot about that sporting lisbon chap as well, carvalho. I’m sure there are many more.

   2. You forgot the Brazilian one
      Can’t remember his name myself!

      1. Oh sh!t, gustavo! Forgot all about him.

      2. Felipe Melo!

         1. Or even luis Gustavo

2. Fab analysis. That Ndidi looks some raw material, but, as your stats show, his game is high-risk and he makes a good many errors. Unfashionably, Kante was the player I really wanted when Leicester won the league and everyone was looking to raid them for signings. He cost 30m.

   Anyway, a few myths busted there (Ramsey doesn’t work for the team defensively), and confirmed (Ozil is a fabulous offensive player, but Eriksen is more rounded on O and D and Mesut needs to contribute more on the D side).

   We’ve long needed an elegant beast (a ball-winning DM), and that we have too many of a certain type of player. Mikhi has done decently but frankly, I’d have preferred a Matic (I know, I know. He wasn’t available, and is a Mourinho fave) in the Alexis trade.

   Coquelin was the only pure ball-winner, and now we don’t have any. We need to buy there, and buy quality. I think it’s telling that Nzonzi is in Deschamps’ world cup squad and Payet is not. Jack, Elneny and AMN won’t give us what we need. If we can’t buy our way to that, who in our squad can we adapt to the role?
   ________________
   btw, I want back to watch some old video of Arteta, and I was shocked to see the amount of defensive tackling that he did in the deep midfield role. Sure video montages distil things, but man, trust me, he seems to have done a truck-tonne of ACTUAL defending in that deep mid role. And of course, he was a peerless passer from the back and reader of the game.

   Between stints in Spain, Scotland, Everton and Arsenal, he adapted… back-midfield conductor, No 10 (at Rangers and Everton), back midfield conductor again. It makes me think that his approach is going to be adapting players, particularly given his budget. I suspect he’ll try to adapt Xhaka’s game more than anyone else’s and teach him to play better D in that conductor role; before looking to the market.

   1. Payet is not in Deschamps’s WC squad because he got injured in the Europa League Final.

      1. Yeah that’s what I thought.

      2. True. My bad.

   2. Agree with Claude’s last sentence – Tim has very convincingly identified the weaknesses, but I think Arteta’s value-add is that he will help to fix them through coaching rather than the chequebook. And as you say, the fact he is so experienced himself in that deep-lying role is a huge plus. Given the undoubted talent and potential of our midfield personnel, I would like to see what he can do with them over a season.

      For new players, we should be looking where our depth is weak – RB, CB and GK.

      1. Some goddamn focus, discipline and intensity will go a long way. Just not switching of for like two minutes each time the ball goes out of play or is not in one’s zone will improve us so much.

      2. Greg, it’s the ability to tactically adapt that makes you a better team. People forget that Santi started life at Arsenal as the wing/creator type figure that Wenger loved to deploy wide left. Putting him next to a ball-winner was a happy tactical outcome. It worked. It worked, because Santi is a super intelligent ballplayer, and adaptable. I hope that the new manager pushes a few people out of their comfort zones.

         p.s. I can’t believe that we made it past 30 comments without talking about Santi’s departure. Good luck for the future, little wizard.

3. CI–
   The four seasons where Arteta was our de facto DM the club finished 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 3rd in GA (between 36 and 42 IIRC). This with a back four of (usually) Bellerin/BFG/Kos/Nacho. This can be fixed.

   Though I’ll state unequivocally that I’d not want Mustafi anywhere near our team next fall. Where the stats say “2” errors by Mustafi led to goals– that criteria must be quite narrow. Can easily recall 4 top-of-head and then there was his early-season passing-out-from-the-back yips that cost us a couple more. (This morning I re-watched the first match vs Everton (Feb 3) with our new Auba/Mkhi lineup. Mustafi could easily have cost us two goals with his brick-like feet in the first 5 minutes.)

   He’s lost something upstairs. Unsure whether it’s drive– or reaction-time. But do not want his mindless defending affecting the trio of young CBs we are developing. Low doesn’t want him at the WC either.

   All signs to ‘sell now’.

   jw1

   1. Nope, not Bellerin. Sagna, then Debuchy.

      1. That’s what I thought. I questioned myself though like “wait, was he really in our first team for that long?” Glad I’ve not lost my mind completely yet.

4. I’ll defer to you on Sagna.
   Though Bellerin’s 28 apps in 2014-15– nearly double Debuchy’s 15 apps between injury spells through January ’15.

   jw1

5. Can Elneny/Niles become the ball winner we need? Or a talent from U-23? Gueye, Ndidi are no coming cheap.. Kante is only fantasy..
   Who are our targets for ball winner?
   Jean michael seri is not the answer.. he is just an underwhelming Xhaka…

   1. He may or may not be “the answer,” but Seri can dribble with the best of em; Xhaka, not so much. This is a huge difference.

6. Hi Tim, think I’m having issues posting for some reason…

7. Hey Tim,

   Great article. I don’t really disagree with the majority of what you say about the importance of a DM, but I noticed that one thing people objected to on Twitter about your claim is that players like Ndidi and Gueye (and Kante too, but to a lesser extent I think), are not really that great on the ball. So, even assuming you keep Xhaka in the team–and you’ve suggested maybe you wouldn’t–you’re relying on him to be our “new Cazorla” to Ndidi/Gueye’s Coquelin. That’s obviously over-simplifying, but you get the point: arguably Ndidi and Gueye aren’t markedly better than Coquelin at this best; at the very least they’re players with a very similar (limited) style to Coquelin. Yet without a Cazorla beside him, Coquelin’s powers were dramatically diminished, and this included when he was partnered with Xhaka (ok partnership, but a bit cautious, uninspired, sluggish) or Ramsey (disastrous partnership).

   Xhaka in particular shouldn’t be seen as the deep lying playmaker who just needs a DM beside him to work his magic because–and I rate the guy–he’s just too sluggish, his turning radius is too wide, and his dribbling in tight spaces is too non-existent for him to be relied upon to beat the press. And beating the press is what we need to figure out how to do.

   That points to the larger issue that has been discussed on here many times before, but is worth revisiting. I remember seeing tweets of yours during the early part of the Huddersfield game, in which you lamented our complete inability to deal with a press. It used to be that we just looked silly against a Klopp or Poch team when they pressed us. But now most of the league–even poor teams–presses us when we come to town, and our continued inability to deal with this issue arguably contributed considerably to our atrocious away form this season. (It’s also worth noting that this isn’t just an issue of getting our attacking buildups to be faster and more successful, but about cutting off at source the area where our opponents are often having the most joy offensively against us, namely attacking us directly after we cough the ball up in vulnerable positions.)

   In the past you’ve highlighted that you’d bring in a midfielder who deals with this problem as your first order of business if you were the manager (e.g. a Thiago Alcantara, in an ideal world).

   So are you changing your tune? Is bringing in a specialist DM really going to address this issue (Coquelin was helpless when pressed)? Do you think dropping Xhaka and opting for a Rambo-DM-Mikhi trio will really be much better? If so, it seems to me that you’re putting a lot of eggs in the Mikhi basket, hoping he can “do a Santi,” and convert to a deep lying playmaker, but, as much as I like the guy, I’m not sure he’s quite at Santi’s level. He can definitely play in a midfield three, a la Silva and De Bruyne, but not sure he can do all the work to break the high press virtually on his own, the way Santi or Dembele can do at least fairly often.

   Personally, I go back and forth about which role is more important, DM or deep lying dribbler/creator, which is why it feels like we need more than just one new CM to sort out the balance issues.

   Thoughts from Tim or anyone else? What am I missing here?

   1. Mkhitaryan will be the Cazorla.

      Ndidi isn’t great on the ball but he’s better than Coquelin and Gueye is miles better. Kante is actually a great player all around. He’s nearly as good with the ball as Xhaka.

      1. Kante doesn’t have anywhere near Xhaka’s range of passing, but I agree he’s quite tidy, and very intelligent on the ball (doesn’t try to do too much, but is very capable in what he does do). And importantly he’s quicker than Xhaka. But I don’t see him making a significant contribution to helping us improve on beating the press, and (since he’s obviously not coming) I’d have even less faith in Gueye or Ndidi. Though I admit to not having watched either nearly enough.

         Again, I like Mikhi, but I think it’s optimistic to think he becomes a Dembele/Cazorla (or Verratti, Thiago, etc) any time soon. For one thing, the next manager would have to see that as his best role (and not 2 years from now, but this season), and work on him adjusting to it.

         But a lot of this depends on how much more the new manager can get out of our current–quite talented–group of midfielders, in terms of tactical organization and one-on-one work to improve their individual games.

         1. “But I don’t see him making a significant contribution to helping us improve on beating the press.”
            Wen you play Klopp or Pochettino, there’s a high probability that you will lose possession a lot. A defensive midfielder would help you win the ball back, something Xhaka and Wilshere can’t do. Then, the difference between a Coquelin and a Kante is how efficiently he can recycle the ball. A few years ago on this blog, people were comparing Arsenal midfielders with other teams, and some thought Liverpool’s midfield wasn’t as good as Arsenal’s. Here’s the trick with Klopp: he has midfielders who might not be great taken separately, but they perfectly fit his style of play. In fact, Klopp’s style of play optimizes his midfielders’ value. Klopp’s gegenpressing style means that he needs midfielders who can do a bit of everything and who are good in the transition game, i.e. who can switch from defense to attack and also from attack to defense. Milner, Can, Henderson, Wijnaldum and Ox are perfect for that style of play. On the other hand, it’s hard to find an Arsenal midfielder who could perform well in that Liverpool team. Maybe Ramsey.

            1. Sure. But is the question, “could DM’s and other CM’s that lack high levels of close control consistently beat the press in our style/system?” or “could a very well-drilled high press (a la Liverpool) obviate the need to beat the high press in the first place?”?

               I am asking the first question; your post largely deals with the second.

               If we filled our midfield with athletes (who were decently neat and tidy on the ball), and then became a very well organized pressing side, then we wouldn’t need skillful deep lying midfielders nearly as much as we currently do, that I’ll grant. But if we continue to want to build up out from the back as a key component of our style (with or without a bit of high press thrown in), then we need to address the inability of our deep midfield to keep the ball and consistently transition upfield with dribbles or line-breaking passes, either by making massive improvements in our current players, or with additions to our squad.

               And I don’t doubt that having a Coquelin/Kante helps when you cough up the ball to the high press in bad situations in your defensive third, but
               a) It doesn’t help enough against good attacking teams if you cough up the ball in those positions as often as we did last season, and
               b) It won’t help in beating the press to begin with. Having Kante may not actively hurt your team in this respect, unlike, say, Coquelin, but just dropping Kante into our midfield last season (in place of or alongside Xhaka), wouldn’t have changed the fact that we were atrocious beating the press.

            2. @PFO: You have to beat the press both from an attacking viewpoint and from a defending viewpoint. To answer your first question, you can beat the press with a run, a pass or a dribble. Because Liverpool won’t give you much time on the ball, you need players who are mobile, versatile, almost flawless technically and who can read the game quickly. Guardiola had players who fit that profile, yet City still lost 3-0 in the Champions League. Why? Because City failed to prevent the Liverpool press from doing some damage. Which leads us to your second question and shows that both questions are interrelated. So having a Kante would definitely help in beating the press from a defending viewpoint. Remember the number of times the Arsenal midfield was non-existent on counterattacks this season? In the past, we had Petit and Gilberto who could break up plays.
               Also, I don’t understand why you think a team either has to press or build play from the back. City and Spurs do both. People think of City dominating possession and creating chances with some neat passing, which is true, but they also do a great pressing job. In fact, City beat Arsenal this season by forcing a lot of turnovers. That’s total football. De Bruyne and Silva can dribble and make great passes but they can also put in a shift defensively and press.

            3. forarsenalfans:

               I don’t disagree with a lot of what you say, I just think we’re somewhat talking past each other. I would respond in more detail, point by point, but it’s late where I am, and I’ve spent the day posting too much on the newer article, about the bombshell manager news.

               maybe we’ll pick this discussion up another time soon on this blog.

      2. The problem with Mkhitaryan is that he doesn’t have Cazorla’s close control and dribbling skills and his turnover rate is much higher.

         1. He has very good close control, but I agree with you.

8. I think this why it’s easier for Guardiola to achieve dominant success relatively quickly at Man City. He can just sold Mustafi, Xhaka, Cech, Ospina, Wilshere, Welbeck on the cheap and replace them with a much better player with Ramsey still in the books. Although like Guardiola first season, I think Arteta will have to make do with a lot of things in his first season.

   On the DM position, if we’re searching for a tandem to Xhaka, I think we missed out on Torreira and Keita. Maybe Seri could be that guy, but I’m not particularly impress by him. More a Ramsey type than Kante type. In the ideal world, we could replace Xhaka with a DM who can operate alone and let two CM in front of him wreak havoc offensively and defensively. Someone who is renown more in his defensive work, but woon’t be a passenger offensively, unlike Coquelin.

   Lastly, on the important of Ramsey, I do think that we can survive if the worst happens. I keep on harking back on his frequent unavailability every season. Putting aside his importance as a homegrown player, I think we can invest in a player with as much potential as he is, in Milinkovic-Savic. Now that Lazio out of the CL, we could attract him if Ramsey is going to be sold.

   1. I think the rumors around Seri (at 35m) are because we’re looking at him in case we lose Ramsey.

9. Good writing as usual. You spoke of the Fabregas delima. A CM suited to playing from deep but with little defensive contribution. Thiseans he needs a minder who can defend.
   I would like to offer the opposite conundrum. A defensive midfielder who can defend, but with little passing and offensive contribution ala Francis Coqueline. This means that you end up with two players covering one role, Carzola and Coqueline. Though this was passable, it was found out by isolating Coqueline and outmusceling Carzola. We need a player, like you identified, who can anchor the midfield alone, without needing a complementary. Gilberto did this to free up Fabregas. Arteta did this. Fernando go, Busquettes etc. Can Gueye or Ndidi offer these features? To me, they will become Coqueline mark 2, good defensively but limited going forward. Xhaka can only work with such a partner. That’s why I think he may have to go. All our midfielders are suited to the box to box role. None is suited to the defensive role outlined. Niles, El Neny, Wilshire are all box to box players. I would sell Xhaka and bring a specialist. I don’t think Ndidi and Gueye are the solution though. Can you compare them to Fernando go and Arteta at their prime? Who are else do you see fitting this mould?

10. How does Doucoure from Watford figure in this Tim? No stats data, but he’s seemed a good fit whenever I’ve seen him. Of course that doesn’t say that he’s always defensively switched on.

    I both agree and disagree with your hypothesis. I think we suffered this season partly because we lacked experience in defense. Kos apparently couldn’t train regularly. Per was absent. That led Mustafi to be the main guy and he wilted. If Mustafi just needs an experienced CB next to him then we need 1, or if Mustafi is done, we need 2 CBs. (Sokratis and Soyuncu?)

    I think we can survive at GK but ideally we get a better No1 and keep Cech around as backup.

    To your question on twitter. Priorities.
    1. Ramsey
    2. CB
    3. DM
    4. GK
    5. CB2
    6. RB
    Bonus: Winger

11. I think that Ramsey is in a Gareth Bale type situation. If a big European team comes in for him, he’s off. I don’t think, as AFTV baselessly speculated yesterday, that Liverpool is one of those teams. Or a premiership team. He’d find it hard to say no to a Juventus, or less likely, a Real Madrid. Alternatively, I think he’ll look at Ozil’s money and ask for parity or as near to it as possible.

    I like the player (ya tink?), but I dunno that I’d put his retention as our Number1 priority. Adequately replacing Koscielny and Cech are more important.

    1. I don’t think Ramsey is irreplaceable, but we already have him, he’s homegrown (both nation and club for Uefa rules), and it would cost a lot of money to replace him, and need us to get lucky with recruitment, in what will anyway be a short and busy window. Losing him takes us further away from where we want to be.

       1. True. Agree.

12. Interesting comparison, prompted by Claude’s comment:

    Arteta in the 12/13 season played 34 games and his BIT score was 210, so he was in the ballpark of Kante or Gueye. That season we allowed 37 goals compared to this year’s 51. Incredibly that apparently included 14 goals off errors, similar to this year.

    For me it does support the argument that instead of buying a DM, better coaching of Xhaka, AMN or Wilshere as a deep-lying playmaker, and getting their defensive output up, is a potential option. I don’t think anyone would describe Arteta as a beast, but his example shows that’s not necessarily what’s needed, especially if we get more solid CBs and reduce that error rate.

    That’s why for me CB / RB is absolutely the priority, with Per and Kos out of the picture and Mustafi currently unable to settle himself.

    On GK and Cech’s error rate (6 leading to goals): in each of the previous 6 seasons he gave up 2 or fewer goals through errors. I don’t know if last season was a sign of decline, but at 36 he’s hardly senile and will more likely revert to the mean, especially with a more solid back line in front of him. Meanwhile his shot-stopping in prime is first class. So while we clearly need a long-term solution here, I would still prioritize CB – and getting the coaching of the players right.

    1. On Ramsey – again I agree with Claude. He’s a big player for us and a great all-rounder but if he and the club do not see eye to eye, then I would prefer we lost him over failing to reinforce at the back.

       I liked the AMN / Xhaka balance, with those two in a well-drilled team you could play Ozil in the hole and Mkhi, Laca, Auba up front, and I doubt you would miss Ramsey.

       Or on the evidence of this season we should lose Ozil and keep Ramsey.

       1. Potentially huge season for AMN. Hopefully we’re going to get to see if he really has what it takes in the longterm in central midfield or not.

    2. I think Xhaka is improving defensively anyway. Which is why I put a CB purchase ahead of a DM purchase, but an elite ‘DM’ helps us immensely. If nothing else by giving us options to rotate/adapt to opposition.

       On Cech, apart from the errors, he is poor with the ball at feet. I think Arteta would ideally want someone who can help pass the ball from the back. Also, I think while he stops shots, he seems to not do it as cleanly or push it out as well as before. But maybe that’s a wrong impression.

       1. Xhaka is who he is, he’s not going to be solid in any consistent way. He might work for a team in a low block but not for a team on the front foot, potentially pressing. That’s how Switzerland and Mönchengladbach played and he made a name for himself. He’s no mobility and either he stays focused for full games or he’s lost.

          1. Hmm. Not so sure. I think his positioning has improved. I also think his slowness is overrated. He surprises me sometimes by his quickness to reach a loose ball or a player to cover when I think there’s no chance. He’s slow because he’s slow to read danger and react. It is an issue of mental awareness. You’re right that he needs to stay focused.

             I think the other issue with Xhaka is that he loses his offensive potential under any sort of press, because he needs too long on the ball. But I reckon with 2 box to box midfielders next to him, we can work with that. It’ll help if one of them can dribble. Ramsey and Wilshere both can’t in that manner. AMN maybe can. Iwobi maybe can. Miki can (but is he defensive enough?)

             A ‘DM’ that we get ideally ought to be able to play both at the base of the mid 3 or as a ball carrier ahead of Xhaka. This is why I liked the idea of Meyer, despite his size, but the players Tim suggests fit the bill. (My preference is N’zonzi unlikely as that is)

             1. But the error margin with him in such a position is so small and his offensive output doesn’t warrant the drawbacks. We’re talking about a 25-year old international playmaker who had his comeupance under Lucien Favre. He has been extensively coached on positioning. As soon as we run into another pressing team he’s toast anyway.
                I mean, it’s not like we have a choice, there’s no way we can get sell him right now, but I’d rather have him stay on as a squad player, not our day in, day out starter. Maybe then we can ship him off to West Ham or something.

13. Ainsley Maitland Niles dude. Problem solved.

14. Sadly (pedant alert!) that’s not what “comeuppance” means, though I do like the neologism!

    “As soon as we run into another pressing team he’s toast anyway.”

    This.
    But then, I don’t see how a specialist DM in the Kante/Coquelin/Gueye/Ndidi mold helps us escape the high press anyway, and I think that’s one of our biggest, if not the biggest, problems right now. So that’s why I’m skeptical of Tim’s initial suggestion (though also sympathetic to it at the same time).

    1. This is meant to be in response to Emob directly above.

15. “Get in a DM like Idrissa Gueye or N’Golo Kante and I think Arsenal could win the league.”
    With a top defensive midfielder, Arsenal would have a shot at a Top 4 finish. But it would take several signings to be able to contend for the title. Look at Manchester United: they’ve spent hundreds of millions of pounds in the past few years, and they’ve never been in the title race since the Ferguson era.

16. defensive mid, my favorite topic. before i start with that, i’d like to defend petr cech. i think tim says, statistically, he’s at fault for 6 goals conceded. many of cech’s errors are down to his team mates. they do stupid stuff like play the ball to him where he’ll be quickly pressured. sorry, boys, that’s bad soccer. you never do that to your goal keeper and i don’t blame cech for not getting a clearance right when he only has time for one touch.

    likewise, how often have we seen cech make a save and direct the ball into a wide area only for an opposing player to follow the shot and finish? cech did his role by making a save and playing the ball into a good space but he can’t do everything. his team mates have to clear the ball, not let someone ghost past them and follow the shot. is cech perfect? no, but he’s fine. it’s the arsenal field players that are more at fault for his negative stats. being the consummate pro, he accepts blame for any error but most of the time, his team mates deserve a greater share of the blame.

17. the biggest flaw with this article is the effort to quantify a defensive midfielder’s contribution to his team. stat’s show technical contributions. dm’s contributions are, more often than not, tactical in nature.

    example: an attacking player may want to play a through ball but the dm sees the play and stands in the passing lane. so the attacking player plays an audacious ball over the top that’s won by a central defender or goal keeper. the dm won’t get statistical credit for that but his positioning made the play. or…the attacking player has to take an extra touch because the dm is in the passing lane, allowing a fullback to come back and make a tackle. hector will get the stat but the dm made the play.

    it’s an often thankless job that requires tremendous tactical awareness and experience to play well. it’s why arteta, cazorla, and gilberto played the position well while xhaka struggles. he’s not smart/experienced enough. we often look at technical qualities like cazorla’s close control or arteta’s passing range and think that’s what’s necessary to play the role well. no, they played the position well because, nine times out of 10, they were the smartest guy on the field. they took up smart positions early and shared information with team mates, helping them make smart decisions and stop dangerous plays from developing. there’s no stat for this stuff but it’s imperative that you do it well to be a good dm.

18. pfo, i just wanted to address your point about a dm being able to beat a press.

    beating a press is not an individual skill. it’s a team effort. often times, arsenal don’t really play as a team. this is the main reason they don’t do well against the press. you have to have team mates continually making themselves available for easy passes and you need to be able to play the ball out of pressure. this places an emphasis on what i call the third attacker.

    the third attacker is the player who’s not on the ball (first attacker) and not the closest team mate of the player on the ball (second attacker). third attackers develop the situation, allowing their team to successfully break the press. this is done by talking, moving, making alternative passing options, or even taking up positions that prevent another defender(s) from applying even more pressure at the point of attack. this requires experience, good composure, and sound tactical awareness. it’s not a technical skill and it’s quantifiable.

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