Arsenal’s Home Form: are these players actually not bad?

Good morning! I just opened the site to see that there was an incredible conversation yesterday over the new manager. Thank you all for participating. My goal is to read through all 193 comments, take each of the managers mentioned, and make a few posts about them including data (where available) and analysis. I don’t fool myself into thinking that the club will read my post. I write for you, the fans (and myself because I have to).

I also want to point you all to my stats preview over on Arseblog News. I trust that you can navigate there yourself. I don’t like hyperlinks. They are distracting.

The main take from that article is that I’m optimistic about this match and this tie. I think these are two evenly matched teams, believe it or not, and this could be a very close contest.

Following on that theme of “hey, maybe this Arsenal side aren’t as bad as everyone thinks” when I was looking at the data I was struck by how incredibly good Arsenal are at home.

Here’s a screen grab of the League table for just home matches. (via WhoScored.com)

Arsenal are 2nd and most of the other teams have a game (or two) in hand. Manchester United’s next home game is against Arsenal and Mourinho loves a 0-0 draw, so I don’t expect movement in this table. Still, even if Arsenal drop to third on the list, their goals for record is incredible. 49 goals in 18 home matches is 10 more than last season, 18 more than the season prior, and 8 more than 2014/15.

49 goals for is the second best home return in Wenger’s 22 year career. The best home season was 04/05 when Arsenal scored 54 goals at home. That season Arsenal won 44 points at home. Arsenal already have 44 points in home games and if we win our last home game against Burnley we should have 47.

97/98 – 43 and 10
00/01 – 45 and 13
01/02 – 42 and 25
02/03 – 47 and 20
03/04 – 40 and 14
04/05 – 54 and 19

The underlying stats show that Arsenal’s home form is pretty close to what we would expect from the shots that they have taken. Expected goals for 45, expected goals against 24. So, we are playing at +8 over 18 matches at home.

People say that Arsenal need an overhaul, that we need to fire everyone. I’m one of those people. I think we need a new keeper (Cech has been in decline for two years now), several new defenders (Koscielny is done, Mustafi is not very good, Monreal is 32), and at least one or two midfielders (we have needed a Cazorla replacement for years and of course everyone wants a DM). But I wonder if the team just needs a few small injections rather than a complete overhaul in order to compete next season?

On our home form, you have to say that this isn’t a terrible Arsenal team.

Qq

120 comments

  1. If the away form was a bit better, we’d have been secure in top 4 by now. We are always good in patches. Sometimes good in first half of the season, sometimes in the final part. It never coincides. This time its about better home from. Let’s hope the next manager can add much needed consistency.

  2. Do you think Cech has a year in him if we get a CB, CDM and an improved structure with the new manager? With all the £50M war chest stories.. dont know if we can get top quality in all the three areas (GK, CB, CM).. may be a younger goalie.. paly the amt of games as ospina did and take charge the season following next?

    1. This was my thought as well. Will Cech suffice if the club can’t/won’t spend on a keeper, CB and DM? I think he’d be good for one more year with a solid defense in front of him.

  3. We need more guts,steel and structure for away games, The defence gets a lot of flack (and rightly so too) but the Midfield has been just as bad with shoddy structure “hot potato” passes when pressed and light jogging back when losing possession which in turn puts massive pressure unto our CB’s.

    The amount of times iv’e seen teams run straight at the heart of our defence is truly astounding

    A quick direct, rapier type winger who has a “chalk on boots” fetish wouldn’t go amiss for away games either. Helps stretch the play and quick counter attacking opportunities. Maybe a Fosberg or Mahrez perhaps?

    1. “A quick direct, rapier type winger”
      The Gunners already have that kind of player with Nelson. That’s why the club needs to extend his contract and sign a manager who can develop youngsters.

      1. For me, Dumb and Dumber forever ruined the non-ironic use of ‘rapier’.

        Speaking of that word, if you’re a true crime buff like me, you’ll be interested to know that today police in California have arrested a suspect in the E.A.R. / Golden State Killer cold case. Incredible!!! I’ve been following it for years.

        As for the Madrid semifinal, I can’t see Arsenal going through. This this has shown time and time again that it cannot live with teams that play like them (midfield press, lots of tackling). For our dysfunctional midfield to work, it needs lots of time and space, and they will afford us none.

        Sorry. I know that’s a downer. But the Golden State Killer arrest!!!!

      2. Pretty sure Nelson has agreed to sign an extension if he hasn’t signed one already.

  4. G’day to you all.

    That £50 million summer spend limit looks like a ” keep the expectations in check” tactic. It may also serve to keep the selling clubs prices down a bit.

    I’ve said for a while now that we have good defenders, just that they have not been coached in such a way as to produce a good defensive unit.

    Having said that we do need to replace both Ospina and Cech. Could the return from loan of Martinez and the promotion of Macey fit that particular bill?

    We also have three good young central backs, Chambers, Holding and, as Wenger infamously referred to him “that Greek Kid”, Mavropanos. Again a lack of good coaching is restraining the development of all three youngsters.

    The forwards and attacking midfielders are in the most part more than adequate, although with reservations about both Welbeck and Iwobi. But we do need some defensive steel and someone who can actually make a tackle in the middle of the park.

    All in all we have don’t have a bad squad and I’m convinced that with a better head coach we should at least be able to compete at the top end of the table.

    1. I agree that with proper coaching and mentorship, Chambers and Holding can be first team regulars.
      We paid a lot of money for these two youngsters. I guess that’s a testament to the promise which they held and the potential that people saw in them.

  5. According to Wenger, Elneny is out for the rest of the season, although he could be back for the last game, against Huddersfield, and so might make the World Cup Finals.

    Mkhitaryan is not yet training with the first team squad.

  6. Wenger v Simeone is a typical let’s concentrate on our strengths v let’s stop them from playing their game approach.

    If you play percentages chances are Simeone will come out on top in this duel.
    18 goals conceded in La Liga is Europe’s best defensive record, while Arsenal’s 46 in the PL is the worst of any big club in any European league, that is of course if we are even considered a big club anymore.

    Yesterday we saw what a tactical mistake can do to your chances when you set up your team all wrong.

    Playing a defensive high line against Liverpool without putting any pressure on Liverpool defenders makes one wonder whether the Roma coaching staff even bothered to watch any Liverpool games at all.

    Even Pep’s City couldn’t live with the Liverpool rampant front three so what were the Italians hoping for is beyond me.

    Here’s hoping for Arsenal win a clean sheet.

  7. They need to replace everyone bar bellerin, Ozil, auba and Laca. Ozil needs a kick up the arse and no more sick days. Great business that 2 of our best players can’t play together isn’t it?

  8. It’s a really good match preview on Arseblog.

    Atletico’s high throughball avg per game confirms what I thought when I watched them recently – Simeone’s men can play a very silky counter-attacking style when they need to. They scored one of the team goals of the season against Levante a couple weeks ago.

    But we are pretty good at home, and they’re on a two-game scoreless streak, so there’s that.

    I agree we need a tactical overhaul, more than a personnel one. But I will never understand why in his last 6 seasons Wenger’s only midfield signings have been Cazorla, Elneny and Xhaka. In 6 seasons. That’s just madness.

  9. Quitting “was not really my decision.”

    Ah, he sure knows how to sour the positive sentiment of the past week.

    I hope he does in fact go to PSG. Maybe then it’ll dawn on him that his time has passed when PSG are yet again are knocked out from Champions League even with him at the helm.

    Atletico are in poor form and missing players. Perfect for them.

    Arsenal 1 – Atletico 0

      1. Debatable at best. Plus, he made clear at his last pre-match press con that he did not want to leave.

        Do you have to be so credulous ALL of the time concerning Wenger?

        1. Well the club and Ornstein both clarified that’s what he meant. Whether he’s telling the truth or not is a different story, but Jack brought up the quote to say Wenger is spoiling the goodwill. The quote wasn’t about Quitting.

          Also, you can choose to do something without wanting to.

          1. Ornstein reported WHAT WAS SAID in clarification. There’s a difference. Ornsteain can’t clarify, because he doesn’t know what was in Wenger’s mind when he said it.

            Of course the club say that. It’s a damaging statement. Given that Arsene made clear that he was pushed (and he will tell the full story after he’s left), there’s a lot of credibility attached to the notion that it slipped out.

          2. Right and you choose to believe the damaging version as fact despite there being some doubt. I don’t.

      2. So, is the theory then that Wenger was going to quit, but was going to wait until the end of the season? I don’t buy it.

        Look, Gazidis and co. can get vilified, but in this matter they have done the “right” thing; let Wenger know he’s not coming back next year and then (I assume with his reluctant consent) announce it as his choice before the end of the season so that a) Wenger can get the send-off he truly deserves and b) so that Wenger can appear gracious on the closing of the Arsenal chapter of his life.

        The alternative of firing him at the end of the season would not have given Wenger proper closure, it would have looked acrimonious because, obviously to be fired implies Wenger wanted to hang on, and it would have handicapped the club in delaying several weeks looking for a replacement.

        But Wenger implying that he didn’t want to go and was pushed out the door, that just dredges up feelings that I share with a lot of people that he is/was being a bitter, delusional old fart who was hanging on too long.

        1. Tim said that the 2 year contract was just to ward off the constant stories about Wenger’s future and that he would leave at the end of the season. I didn’t believe him. But it turns out he was right.

          Now was Wenger in the dark about this possibility? He said his contract caused an issue with the team last season. He also said that he would review his position with the board at the end of the season.

          The club did need him while they put the ‘most experienced team in the world’ together to replace him. Wenger has to have been part of the process of change at the club. For one, he’s always cited that as one of his responsibilities.

          As to the reluctance, maybe he was told that he would stay if they qualify for the CL. Wenger might feel that through winning the Europa could still count as that, while the club feel no it doesn’t. And maybe he feels waiting for the end of the season review is right rather than in the middle. That’s taking the view he was definitely told he has to go.

          But there is also a view, which I hold, that while the club would have suggested to him that they are ready to move on having seen the positive work by Sven and Sanhelli (unofficially) in January, they would not have sacked Wenger if he said he’s staying. He has huge self belief and so would need to be ‘pushed’ to leave. But how hard was he pushed, or would be pushed is the question… And was the ultimate decision his?

          In the end, it doesn’t matter. I just dislike the certainty with which people conclude that Wenger definitely was sacked and was definitely just clinging to power (when the latter is exactly everything he is not or has stood for)

  10. Wow Jack…still on that are we, thought with the announcement, the arsene bashing would stop…back to the post, there is a good team in there, I’d be happy to take my chances with Martinez and Macey and spend big on one central defender and one central midfield (doubt we have enough money for more). Nelson for the wing role please, i think he has what it takes.

    1. My opinion: If we have money for just one player this summer, then it has to be a “proper and befitting” DM.

    2. I’m not so sure on starting the new season with Martinez as N01. Too big of a risk as he’s hardy played a match on loan to Getafe. A replacement for Ospina as NO2 perhaps.

      Iv’e liked the little iv’e seen from Macey this season and maybe a loan to a championship team will serve him well going forward.

      I’d personally love Jan Oblak, but in respect to our estimated “War Chest” of £50m (Surely has to be a wee bit more?) i’d go for Timo Horn whom apparently has a £22m release clause, or Jack Butland of Stoke City Rugby Club whom are set for relegation. £25-30m.

    3. Strange, I read his comment as one of frustration that the arrogant, bitter old has-been is refusing to leave with the famous dignity and grace that are so regularly and grovellingly attributed to him. Still, I do hope he is able to win a European trophy for Arsenal, at the 22nd attempt.

    4. Yep. Because he’s demonstrating public bitterness over being pushed out and it’s borne out of the same stubbornness and lack of awareness that was being reflected on the pitch the past couple years. Everyone, bar a few people, accepts that he needed to go. Why can’t he?

      1. Also, if you look at his face when he says it, it is with an open smiling expression. It didn’t seem bitter to me.

        1. OK. There has since been a clarification on his part. I will give him the benefit of the doubt and accept that the decision to leave was his, but that perhaps he’d preferred a bit different timing.

          That said…

          My speculation is that last year Wenger thought he was renewing for another full two years. Nothing he has said publicly would even hint that he thought it was going to be less than that.

          Kroenke meanwhile probably recognized the vacuum his leaving last summer would have left. So he renewed Wenger but gave Gazidis marching orders to start assembling a new management team; Sanllehi, Mislintat and Fahmy. Wenger, at least publicly, never sounded too thrilled with this action.

          I firmly believe he’s being pushed out. Maybe it was a call with Stan, maybe it’s what we call “constructive dismissal” i.e. making work conditions so difficult that the person quits out of frustration.

          1. I agree that he was being pushed. I don’t know how far they would have pushed if Wenger was absolutely adamant that he will stay. My general starting point with Wenger is that he genuinely wants the best for the club. This is based over many, many years where he has said he wants us to do better after he leaves, and where he’s sacrificed his best chances of winning the CL, his dearest ambition, to stay with the club.

            Could this clash with his own self belief that he can and is doing a good job? Of course. But we’ve also been told for many years by those that know him and himself that he is very self critical. He also said that the final year of his last contract affected the team, and that he would review his position with the board at the end of the season. Two statements that suggest he at least knew that he wasn’t signing on for a definite 2 years.

            I think he was involved in the changes at the club to an extent. It would be foolish to not use his experience. (For instance, his unhappiness with the stats input on scouting reports might be what led the club to look at Mislintat, who is supposed to be good at combining statistical data with traditional scouting)

            I think he was unhappy because his colleagues were being fired to make these changes (they were then retained in advisory roles) and I don’t know what other tensions there were. There are bound to be some. But I trust it was with the right intention, and saving his job/clinging to power was not at the forefront of his thought process. I think the body of evidence against this supposition is much smaller, too immediate,and unknown, to override that.

            Ok, enough of that.

  11. If Wilshere and Cech are going we should get a few quid for them to add to the pot. I struggle to see us getting shot of Cech though. No question he’s in decline but take out the errors and he’s still very solid. What does Tim say in the Atletico preview? We are saving 70% of SiP? That’s good. And are we really going to ditch all that experience in an obviously shaky back line, especially if we need to bed in a new CB?

    So I think we will be buying in Central Defence and midfield but likely not keeper.

    1. “Take out the errors and he’s still very solid.” Did you actually think about that statement at all before you wrote it?

      1. Are you having a bad day?

        Otherwise you can take that kind of talk back to r/soccer. We’re trying for civil discussion.

        1. It’s not uncivil. It’s a fair question.

          I got full marks in the exam, if you exclude the fact I got all the questions wrong.

          Do you not see what’s wrong with this logic?

          1. Ok, so either the poster is so dumb that he can’t see that ‘logic’. Or…and here’s a revolutionary thought… he meant something else.. Like despite the errors, there’s a good keeper in there still, and with better defense and midfield in front of him Cech is still a good option.

          2. It’s an invalid proposition. The errors are the very reason he’s no longer a competent goalkeeper. Each of you is making a tendentious argument.

          3. Maybe, but I was trying to explain why it was not civil.. Not why you were wrong about Cech.

          4. Please can you explain why the question is uncivil, considering that the logical incoherence of the statement is apparent upon a moment’s reflection. And also why, in turn, the question is more uncivil than the statement it apparently excuses, which is a variation on the old refrain of telling someone to “go back where you came from”?

          5. ” Did you actually think about that statement at all before you wrote it?”

            Do you not see why this comes across as rude?

            And sure, that statement doesn’t make much sense. And it could be funny maybe because sometimes we all say things like that. But we should make an attempt to see what was meant rather than exactly what was said.

            The ‘go back where you came from’ was a reaction to your rudeness.

            Which you could then have defused by saying you didn’t mean to be rude or uncivil if you actually didn’t, rather than doubling down on how it is justified because of the ‘logical fallacy’ of the statement.

            That’s the best I can do as an explanation.

          6. Come on folks, Eduardo’s comment is a little on the prickly side, but we’ve all expressed similar things on this site before, and I’m sure Greg is a big boy.

            A generous way to interpret Greg’s comments would be that Cech is still solid, even taking into account the errors. I, for one, completely disagree with him, by the way. Cech is done. He’s slow, he makes more mistakes than any other keeper in the league, and not all of them can be attributed to a shaky defense.

            A goalkeeper absolutely must be a priority for us this summer.

          7. Eduardo et al, it’s right there in my comment. Cech saves 70% of shots in prime, according to Tim (unless I misunderstood). That means he’s a good shot stopper.

            I am not saying he is solid despite the errors. I am contrasting the two apparent facts about Cech – that on the one hand he’s error-prone, and that on the other he saves a lot of goals. If you object to the word “solid”, by all means substitute another in your head. But the point is pretty simple. He’s a vastly experienced and good keeper who has had a nightmare with errors recently. Finding and signing a great keeper is hard. I think defenders are the priority, and I would not be surprised if he was kept on, on account of his strengths, while new defenders bed in.

          8. Cech is BY FAR the most error-prone goalkeeper in the PL. He’s possibly the most error-prone player in the league, period.

            The last person on your team who you want to make an error is your goalkeeper. That is absolutely basic at ANY level of football. If you have ever played organized football of any kind you will know how terrifying it is to play with an error-prone goalie.

            Because he commits so many more errors than anyone else, Cech is arguably the worst goalkeeper in the division. Arsenal could sign literally ANY other goalkeeper from the PL and he would be an improvement. (With the possible exception of Joe Hart.)

            I don’t think I can make it any clearer than that.

    2. Interesting point about Cech.

      I’d have to go back and look at his errors and think about why each happened. Was the cause of the error mental, physical or situational?

      Mental would be a lapse in concentration or poor decision making. I have trouble believing this would trouble such an experienced keeper. Unless the dressing room was truly toxic.

      Physical would be because of declining speed, strength or skills. This seems most obvious given his age, but then how do we explain the high shots in prime save percentage.

      Situational might be someone else (cough Mustafi cough) putting him in a bad position leaving Cech holding the bag, bad luck (a common error that usually goes unpunished) or more subtlely being overly aggressive to make up for a poorly organized defense and ending up in an exposed position. Or maybe most likely, being overly aggressive to make up for declining physical capacities.

  12. Structure (and a Cazorla replacement.)

    Defending in this team is a thankless task, just watching us play can sometimes be an exercise in frustration. Just the simple act of having players know where to go when we lose the ball upfield would make a massive difference. There are so many tactical tweaks to be made that would improve the performance of our defenders.
    Snuff out the high xG opportunities given away cheaply but give away lots of low xG opportunities to maximise the possibility of scoring on the counter – aka Ranieri’s Leicester or Enrique’s Barca.

  13. We’re a good team, but not always able to show it. Hopefully we will show it in the game today.

    50m budget? Even though we basically had zero spend after all the moves the past season? Hmmm. I guess we’ll see. I’m not inclined to believe this figure as gospel. But qualifying for the CL would help increase the budget.

    I don’t think we need an overhaul. I think we’ll stick with what we have at LB. (Niles can also play there) We’ll buy a CM, a CB, and a GK and maybe a RB. I would also like a DM but I don’t think we’ll get that.

    So my guess is.. GK (Probably German) , CB (big money purchase), and CM (Meyer on a free) and reportedly, RB Fredricks from Fulham on a free.

    1. If we we’re to purchase in those positions that would be four players with two of them being freebies.

      In my mind that would leave enough money for a DM. And a winger to boot. I think we’ll spend around £100m this summer with Max Meyer on a free.

      1. I would love a DM but I wonder if this is going to happen. Especially if Wilshere actually signs the contract.

        We have Xhaka, Elneny, Ramsey, Maitland-Niles next season. Maybe Jack. I think we’d buy Meyer because he’s free, and because he’s something of a Santi replacement. Niles is defensive minded with decent technique, and quick. I think the club will mandate that young players be given a chance. Maybe that explains the low budget too.

        Meyer, Elneny, and Ramsey should have good midfield control. Xhaka can play instead of Elneny to break down a deep defense. Defensively Niles and Elneny can be the shield. And Meyer can spell Ramsey too. Plus there’ll be chances for Willock and maybe some of the other youth. If we do sign a big, ‘Elegant Beast’ then that would be great. My preference would be Nzonzi because I like him and because his age means he won’t ‘kill’ AMN. But I think IF we get Meyer, I’d rather the big money went towards a CB and GK before the DM.

        1. Meyer can play whatever position you ask. Ironically, he’s probably the player Wenger had hoped that Xhaka would become.

          We don’t need a midfielder, even if we sell Ramsey (50/50 proposition in my mind). A “coach” could make what we have in there work.

          We need defenders and young GK. Badly.

          1. I just think of how Tedesco uses Meyer and Goretzka at Schalke, and think Meyer and Ramsey.

            We’re not selling Ramsey unless he decides he doesn’t want to stay. (More likely now that Wenger’s going)

            How many midfielders and defenders we need will also depend on the system we’re planning to play next season. Which would depend on who the coach is.

          2. Sadly, it sounds like it won’t be Tedesco or Nagelsmann. It’s really sounding like it will be Enrique. I have no idea if Enrique will know what to do with this midfield and I doubt we can recruit Meyer without Tedesco. Enrique strikes me as more a traditional manager and less of the Head Coach that would maximize our existing resources.

            And he’s a prick by all accounts. The media dislike him, his ex-players dislike him.

          3. I have a feeling that dislike for him is slightly overblown. (Vermaelen had some nice things to say about him btw, but who knows what he really thinks)

            I get the sense that Luis Enrique is a very driven, but a somewhat lonely figure. He may not be the most engaging. But he would definitely be pushing the players to do better. Whether they react well to it or not is a mystery but also, Arsenal’s environment might calm him down a bit. Barca is a hugely politically charged job.

            I have no idea about his tactics or suitability for Arsenal.

            But after my initial dismissal of him based on these accounts, I read a few more articles about him and I can see why Arsenal might think he’s someone that the team needs.

            It would be a ‘risk’ in a sense because he is such a different, and maybe difficult, character. But, it would also be a ‘safe’ appointment compared to the two young German coaches. He has a greater pedigree as a coach and player.

            Not my favourite option, but this was the club which appointed Bruce Rioch before the bold choice of Wenger.

            Despite that, I can’t reconcile the appointment of Luis Enrique with stories of his wage demands, reduced budgets, and Per saying he was told that most of the backroom staff will be staying. We’ll see.

  14. Home form puts paid to any claims by Arsene that a poisonous atmosphere affects the team. In fact, it shows clear that this season, he hasn’t been able to get them up for games on the road.

    That seems as much of a psychological issue asa coaching one — coaching because teams set up differently than at home.

    Been saying for months now that Cech is done. He remains a decent shot stopper, but his decline is palpable. Not all of his errors can be attributed to a horror show in front of him.

    I hope that the stories about that limited a budget are wrong, but even with more money available, we’re not going to be able to buy our way out of our problems.

    The incoming coach is going to have to be…
    (A) Someone strong tactically, who can organise a team to beat or stop a team that is stronger on paper. Arsene’s biggest problem of late is that you KNEW when we played Bayern that it was going to be blowout

    (2) Someone who can coach errors out of the likes of Mustafi, who sometimes looks a very good player and is a German international

    (3) Someone who can significantly, consistently develop young players like Iwobi and Holding. That’s another of Arsene’s big problems of late. Players emerge with promise, and then appear to go backwards.

    My pick was Enrique, but the more that Jack et al talk about Tedesco, the more he appeals.

    1. I really don’t see this 3rd argument about players’ development stalling.

      ‘Second season syndrome’ has been a thing since I first started watching football. Holding has come in from the lower leagues and made an impact. His growth trajectory is not going to be linear. (He’s still made 10 PL appearances) I mean John Stones had 3 years at Everton before his big move to City and he’s hardly been ever present this season. (No idea if he was injured though)

      Iwobi’s problem is his inefficiency and poor decision making in the final third. I still look at him and think he’s improving. I think he’s on the verge of a breakout season. Maybe a good performance at the World Cup will be the confidence boost he needs.

      I mean you’ll just say I’m defending Wenger but I really don’t see this as a major issue.

  15. Spare a thought how unlucky Wenger is most times in his European match ups.

    We all know he’s not good enough to make any meaningful waves in the CL, so to prove his worth in the “lowly “ EL he needs to beat a perennial CL ,Atleti.

    Pep with Bayern couldn’t do it or even Jose with Chelsea a few seasons back.

    Last season the “Special One” and United had to beat on the way to the title mid table clubs from France, Russia, Spain , plus Anderlecht and Ajax.

    The total worth of the clubs United faced in the knockout stages was less than United’s alone, while Atleti’s is actually more than Arsenal’s these days.

    Poor Wenger just can’t catch a breake.

    1. Got a break after 9 minutes, but same old story. Also could have conceded. Need a better 2nd half.

  16. HT: Wasteful. Should have scored about three or four goals in the opening fifteen minutes, and then we were bereft of ideas. The sending off will galvanize them. At this point, I’m just angry that we couldn’t take advantage of those chances early in the half, because I have a bad feeling it will come back to haunt us.

  17. We need at least 2 goals now in this second half. That red card puts us in a good position but you never know with Arsenal. All we can do is hope and pray that we find a way.
    Oh by the way, there is no controversy about those yellow cards which were deserved all day long, 8 min in or not.

    1. Atletico will be without their first and second-choice RBs for the next game. Good news. On the other hand, Costa will be match fit by then, so…

  18. Luis Enrique is the safe, conservative pick that a Chelsea or Man U would make. I would argue that we go bold, outside of the box and pick a Nagelsmann or Tedesco. A third choice for me would be Jardim. We need to move quick on our choice before Conte’s departure takes Jardim off the board.

  19. Calamity defending from both Koscielny and Mustafi. Unfortunately that’s typical of both their games these days. You only need one chance with our clowns, but our clowns up top can’t do anything with twenty chances. So very Arsenal.

  20. F***ing disgraceful defending from Koz. And why was Mustafi already on the ground? Was he really that nervous that he could keep his balance? Comical.

    1. He slipped. It was comical indeed. Like I said, we’re a bunch of clowns, and Mustafi and Koscielny took the cake tonight.

    1. We’re not beating Atletico in Madrid. Sorry. I’d say our season is done and dusted after that s***show. Sideways passing and Arsenalesque defending. Argh. So predictable.

      1. Yep. I completely agree. We can’t get it done against a 10 man Atletico side at the Emirates while they are in damage control mode and we are going to go there and grab a win? Not happening.

        1. They will simply defend (which they can actually do) and catch us on the break. I know exactly how that game is going to go and end, and it’s us losing 3-0. Easy.

      2. ok, you can be disappointed, even furious with the defensive mistake, but sh** show??!?

        we were excellent for 99% of that match. athletico is one of the best, if not the best, defensive sides in Europe. they were down to 10 men away from home in a European quarterfinal. of course they were going to park the bus like it’s never been parked before (well since the last Burnley or Mourinho match). we needed to be patient. sideways passes are necessary sometimes. we created a bucketload of chances, including several that we should have scored from. Oblak pulled off a couple of excellent saves. I’d say that’s the best we’ve played in ages.

        it sucks. big time. it’s a suckerpunch to the gut. Kos and the whole defense have let us down in one moment. but it wasn’t a sh**show. the players deserve better from us fans than that kind of sneering dismissal of their efforts.

        1. Sorry. Nope. We were not excellent for 99% of the game. We were exceedingly wasteful during that early good spell, then passed the ball around the 18-yard box like we always do (with the odd hopeful cross), and then they score on one of their few chances when a hopeful ball over the top catches our two defenders in full stupid mode.

          Not an overreaction to say we were awful today. Possession was utterly insipid throughout.

          1. That was the wake-up call we were expecting, even though the red card changed the dynamic for a while. Atletico are in a different weight class to us, and we were foolish to think they’d be troubled by our slow and steady build-up play.

            Simeone nullified our best athlete by putting Thomas Partey on Welbeck, which only exposed just how unathletic and unimposing the Wilshere-Xhaka-Ramsey trio was. He’s one of the best 5 coaches in Europe and it’s hilarious that people think he shouldn’t be the next Arsenal manager because of his “demeanour”. There’s no better coach to train us in how to deal with the monster teams Klopp and Pep are building.

            This is one of the best, smartest forums for discussing Arsenal. But we’re talking about a working-class sport, not golf or lacrosse. Those guys are probably using much fouler language in the dressing-room right now because they know just how badly they f*cked up.

          2. “Not an overreaction to say we were awful today. Possession was utterly insipid throughout.”

            Ok, I just entirely disagree. I can only trust my own eyes on this one. When one person says “the ball is clearly red” and the other person says “the ball is clearly green,” one feels there’s little more for either side to say. But briefly, here goes:

            I’m not going to excuse the defensive mistake. But I guess I appreciate (what I would call) patient buildups much more than you. Trust me, I’ve seen insipid from us the last few seasons, and, by and large, that was not insipid.

            (It’s also interesting that your summary of the match conveniently leaves out the part where a long spell of pressure ended in a “hopeful cross” being brilliantly headed into their goal by our striker.)

            We weren’t brilliant or scintillating. If we put in that performance against a weaker PL team I’d be critical (though it would still have been better than a most of our away matches this season).

            But I adjust my expectations and assessment of our play based on the quality of the opposition. They are an excellent team, one of the best in Europe. It’s also no exaggeration to suggest they’re probably the worst possible opponents in world football to face in a situation like tonight–at home in the first leg of a semifinal with a man advantage–because they’re absolute masters at defending deep in numbers and hitting on the break.

            Heck, in the past few seasons I’ve seen Barcelona create fewer chances when needing to score against this Athletico team than we did tonight. Against a team parking the bus, patient buildup and passing has a purpose: keeping the pressure constant, wearing them down, looking for the one slip or gap or lack of concentration. Our patience resulted in one very good goal and a number of very decent chances (not just in the first half, but in the second too). But they’re the sort of team that throw their bodies in the way and make good chances into half chances, and half chances into blocked shots.

          3. Two further thoughts for Bun on the quality of the performance:

            1) If you take out the goal they scored, and supposing we had gone on to win 1-0, are you *really* prepared to describe the rest of our performance as “awful” and “a sh**show”? Based on what you say above, you are, but this view strikes me as over the top in its harshness.

            Going on to win that game 1-0 would obviously have been a great result–the entirely deserved red card doesn’t change that fact, given how good Athletico are at defending–but I’d add it would have been a very good performance too, and I think most Gooners would have agreed in those circumstances (even if they would have had regrets about not scoring more). Obviously their goal changes things, and understandably colors our perspective on the match as a whole.

            2) I know you’ve said on here in the past that you’ve stopped regularly watching most of our PL matches (or words to that effect), given that we’ve been bad and have little chance of getting better with Wenger.

            So I wonder if part of the discrepancy between your assessment of tonight and my own is that you haven’t been regularly watching the genuinely awful sh**shows we’ve been serving up on an almost weekly basis for the better part of two years (being generous). This is not to say your assessment is inaccurate. One could just as easily make the case that I’ve become inured to watching sh*t from the Arsenal. But tonight I was genuinely proud of the boys for a performance that was miles better than our usual fare of late.

          4. That’s nice, PFO. We see things differently. Did you need to write two essays to say as much? I fail to see your need to protest too much. Care to explain?

          5. Sorry, you’re offended that I took time and space to express my point of view on a blog comments section designed for that very purpose, specifically trying to go into some detail as to how and why I disagree with your point of view (when you’re under zero pressure to read anything I write or reply in kind)??

            I need to “explain myself,” as if my behavior is somehow inappropriate or out of order?

            Huh??!?

          6. The request for an explanation was made in the hopes that you’d make another detailed, numbered list of points detailing your psychological machinations. The mind behind the man, so to speak. Sadly, at around 250 words, this explanation disappoints. Where’s the prolixity now, I wonder?

          7. Now you’re just being a troll, while I’m engaging in good faith.
            Congrats, I guess, if it makes you feel good to say belittling and sarcastic things to strangers.

        2. I don’t think we created enough chances for what was essentially 11 v 10 for the whole game and it wasn’t down to Oblak’s saves because while they were good saves, you would expect a good goalkeeper to save them. Our possession was down to Atletico defending deep, but we were entirely too predictable, made it easy for them to defend and in the end we did what we always do – which is gift the opposition a goal. That’s the Arsenal story and it has been for over a decade so while it is a sucker punch to the gut, it almost feels apt.

          Also, I’m not sure why we have to laud the effort here. It’s a European semi-final and the last European home game of our legendary manager. If you can’t put in the effort then you don’t deserve to play football professionally. Sorry, but you get no points for effort.

          1. We had 28 shots and got 8 on target. They had 6 shots and got 5 on target.

            They blocked 7 of those shots and forced us to take the others in low xG areas, typified by Xhaka opting to shoot from outside the box with his right foot in the last minute.

            “We lacked a bit quality”

          2. NYC,
            I was using the term “efforts” not in the sense of literal effort, i.e. trying or exertion, but in the sense of “performance,” as in “they played brilliantly in the first half, but at the end had little to show for their efforts.”

            I thought we put in a very good performance, bar one all too predictable terrible defensive lapse (against one of the most lethal strikers in world football, it should be added). But I appear to be in the minority here with that assessment…

  21. Ah jeez I only saw the second half but I was transfixed – and happy until we effed up. 11 v 10, Arsenal at home against the best defence in Europe and it was an onslaught, Oblak made great saves, Laca was on fire and Griezmann stole one back. If you can’t enjoy that, you don’t like sport very much, turn the damn thing off.

    1. Its really not that black and white.. and this idea that you can’t enjoy a sport if you are criticizing the team is a false dichotomy and one that I thoroughly reject. For me personally, analysis is part of the fun.

      1. Analysis is one thing, congregating online to be miserable sods together is another. Lord knows I’ve done plenty of both on here. But as disappointing as I am with the result, I’m genuinely surprised that some of you regulars aren’t more complimentary about the performance.

        We’ve had many, many, many other opportunities in the last few years to be miserable about much, much much worse performances.

        1. Complimentary? We were toothless in attack, failed to capitalize on their red card, gave up a sloppy away goal, and go to their stadium (where they haven’t conceded a goal in 11 games) needing an away goal at minimum. Your longwinded attempts to paint this differently are unrealistic. We s*** the bed, and we’ll pay for it next week.

          1. Ok, again, we just disagree on what we saw. I don’t think we were toothless in attack at all. And the links to the analyses of the game from others that I’ve posted below, including Tim’s piece for Arseblog (shameless appeal to authority), mostly support my version of events.

            Apologies (not really) if my “longwinded attempts” are interfering with and somehow offending your settled plans to be thoroughly miserable. That’s your prerogative.

          2. Is that supposed to be mocking me for the awkwardness of the phrase? I can’t tell. If so, it’s lame.

  22. That was pretty frustrating.

    I thought the most telling thing was that Simeone was able to make adjustments to nullify our advantage even though he was up in the stands.

    Probably my homerism, but it felt like the ref lost control of the match after he gave the two yellows. He refused to give any more calls to Arsenal and Atleti just bullied us. But we still got called and couldnt be physical back. Like I said, I’m biased.

    Giroud would have been so useful.

    We were very sloppy with the ball.

    I still believe that we can win.

    1. Almost exactly as how I saw it.

      Just add some poor finishing to it. Maybe not poor exactly, but not good.

  23. After Arsenal scored, we could have subbed in Naitland-Miles (for, e.g., Özil) with strict orders to defend. He would have had the foot speed to at least get in Griezmann’s way and/or cover for the CBs.

    1. AMN is not the answer to anything. I’m genuinely tired of the hype over this guy. You put him on and you watch him lose possession. He’s not ready for top flight football.

    2. Sure, but there really wasn’t and shouldn’t have been any danger. And on the other hand, we could and really should have scored another goal.

      Kos effed up, the bounce favoured Griezmann, Mustafi slipped and Monreal jogged back until it was too late. And there we might have lost the tie.

      Might.

  24. I’m with PFo mostly. I thought our passing wasn’t as sharp as it could be, but it was measured and for the most part, purposeful. Atletico blocked the centre with bodies. (Going down to 10 makes no real difference to this aspect)

    They had very little outlet, and we could keep the pressure on them. And this pressure did tell. Even before the sending off, which came so early, I thought we were doing well and more than holding our own. But after the sending off, especially in the second half, we really had them pinned back. We created chances (and didn’t finish).

    I think the passing was to move them around so that space could be created despite their low black. Maybe if we had Giroud it could have been a bit more direct. I also think we didn’t want to go all gung-ho with our attacking because of the risk of giving up an away goal.

    As it turns out, they got the away goal because our defenders effed up. But that doesn’t make the rest of the performance a s**t show. It wasn’t scintillating but it was hardly going to be against Atletico who are great at defending and breaking up momentum (and the referee gave them a lot of leeway after the red card) I thought it was a good, controlled performance, let down by the stupid goal we gave away, which made the missed chances more frustrating.

    But the tie isn’t over. We can go there and score to wipe out their away goal advantage. And I see it going to extra time where we score the winner.

  25. We were given a free pass into the final and tore it up. Next week in Madrid is going to be so difficult, BUT, our away form in recent Europa matches is excellent so there is a little hope.
    Commenters on another Arsenal blog (ahem!) are actually blaming the referee for the result by claiming that Atletico got away with endless unpunished fouling (not really) & simulation (some truth there) and that Welbeck was fouled in the build up to their goal (he dived).
    I really think Simeone proved himself in this match.
    Probably be facing Costa next week. Bring on The Holding.

  26. ‘I really think Simeone proved himself in this match’.
    Other than getting sent to the stands of course.

  27. It’s funny that our first meeting with Atletico came at this point in time. in many ways they’re the closest thing La Liga has to Arsenal. Formerly a bit of a lightweight top of the table team capable of winning a title but renowned for capitulating in the biggest games. Then of course there’s the new stadium move, which they’ve handled so well under Simeone’s leadership (he’s refused offers because he wanted to lead them through the transition).

    His defence-first approach perfectly underlines where we went wrong during the banter era. Too often we chose style when we needed substance. So many consecutive seasons of CL qualification and we failed to learn the simplest truth of European cup competitions – the performance does not matter, only the result.

    An Atletico Madrid fan reading some of the comments here would be laughing his or her head off. We’re just the latest team to fall into the trap they set so cleverly. They were gonna sit deep and wait to punish us whether they had 10 men or 11.

    Even Arsene understands what this means. To quote him:

    “This was the worst possible result for us.”

  28. Well that was entirely predictable. Did anyone really expect this group of players to suddenly up their game just because Wenger announced his departure?

    They haven’t played for Wenger for all of this season so why would they play for him now that he is seen as a lame duck?

    For once we got off to a good start, busy passing and moving, shifting the ball from wing to wing trying to get round the parked bus. But it was all so painfully slow, even when the referee dismissed Vrsaljko and Simeone we continued with the same pass, pass, pass and pass again football.

    Finally we got the goal with a spectacular leap and header from Lacazette.

    But then it was all set up for the appearance of the The Three Stooges, Ospina, Mustafi and Koscielny, who generously ushered Griezmann onto the red carpet and graciously allowed him the freedom of the penalty area to score the goal that will likely be the one that signals the end of any hope of making the final.

    1. On this “our passing was painfully slow and all sideways” narrative doing the rounds on here:

      I agree it could have been faster, more aggressive, etc (in the link I posted below from Balague, he makes this point well, but with more balance). But I also think Daniel Storey pretty much nails it too (from the football365 story I linked to below), on our second half passing that you guys all seem to think was so pedestrian:

      “Yet for all Wenger’s flaws, he still has a calming team talk in him. Rather than playing at double speed in the style of a child left home alone for the first time and who wrecks the joint by lunchtime, Arsenal required composure. The key to overcoming a ten-man team is not necessarily to create more chances, but better ones. As Pep Guardiola will tell you (and as he has his Manchester City team demonstrate), the best chances are created by overlaps in the final third.

      So it proved.”

      Tim’s By the Numbers piece also bears this out:

      “63 – Passes in the Atletico penalty area by Arsenal
      13 – Passes in the Arsenal penalty area by Atleti (this is more than just a simple stat showing how deep the team played, Arsenal’s 63 passes in the penalty area meant that Atletico were under constant threat. Any miss kick or failed clearance and Arsenal could have pounced for a goal. Especially threatening were the 11 passes across the box on the ground. Guardiola is notorious for his love of this pass and supposedly calls them “half a goal” in training.)”

      1. You’re basically the kid from the “Good job Lebron, good effort!” meme.

        In 2001 we absolutely demolished Liverpool in the FA Cup Final. Then, just like Griezmann, Michael Owen scored a late winner from a long ball. In 2005 a very strong Utd team absolutely wrecked us in the FA Cup Final. But back then we had a proper team who could defend like Atleti team and we held on for penalties and PV4’s iconic winning spot-kick.

        They had 10 men for 80mins – why wouldn’t the stats show that we dominated them? But “half a goal” adds nothing to the final score. In these crunch European games, good performances don’t mean a whole lot against teams capable of playing lock-down defense.

        1. 1. Since I’m generally (happily) unfamiliar with most memes, I don’t get the reference, but I’m guessing this was intended as a put down. Ok, I feel put down.

          2. Thanks for the entirely unnecessary lesson in recent European football competition history. So we’ve established that it was in fact a good performance from us, and that Athletico are indeed a team that’s good at “lock-down defense” (perhaps explaining why we didn’t find it easy to win comfortably with a several goal cushion, thus leaving us vulnerable to one bad piece of defending that I am not in any way defending). That’s good enough for me.

          1. Well, lauding mediocre performances seems to be your thing so of course that’s good enough for you.

  29. Our attacking play was very unstructured, there seemed be little plan besides flooding the box with people. Oblak didn’t even have to make that many top draw saves.

    1. On avg 15.88 times in their Premier League games, Man City’s passes are cut off by opposition defenders. That’s a league-high stat. The best attacking team in the league is the one that has their passes intercepted the most. Because they pass to take defenders out of the game.

      Our central defenders and Xhaka spend the most time on the ball but make too many passive passes. Xhaka arrived as a specialist in those types of passes from a deep midfield position so we know he’s capable of doing it. And so are the others. That’s why this game was so frustrating.

  30. Word in Germany is, Sokratis and Arsenal agreed terms, his contract is running out in a year, so BVB are likely to sell. Not a bad idea for a quick fix, he’s 29 but has been playing inconsistently this season. Though the CBs were pretty exposed this season, so he should slot in easily. He’s kind of a dirtbag, he knows every trick in the book.

    1. He’s a damn good one on one defender. My suspicion with this kind of thing is when a team like Dortmund lets someone like him go it’s because they’ve signed a younger player who they think is ready to take over (Manuel Akanji). Which is what we should be doing, or what Sven was brought in to help us do!

      But def a very solid player who will have no problem adapting to the Prem.

      1. Yeah, in theory, but right now we need someone readymade ASAP. I like it. It’s easy to say we should get someone like Akanji, but right now I don’t feel we’d be the right place for someone like him. we need to stabilise first.

        1. I agree. Didn’t mean Akanji specifically.

          Do you think Sven will be trying for Raphael Guerrero as well? Still young despite the injuries and that left foot is deadly.

          1. I don’t think Dortmund will sell. They really missed him this year. They sell when they have to i.e. contracts are running out and they’ ve sold integral players ahead of their planning, considering their rebuild they will try to keep most at the club.

  31. With reference to the headline, as far as central defence and goalkeeper are concerned on last night’s evidence, yes they are!

    1. I’m not sure why Ospina is getting any blame. He saved a one on one with Griezmann.

  32. The football gods finally smiled on Wenger and Arsenal by handing them a chance to play against a 10 men Atleti for almost the entire game, and almost as importantly against a Simeone- less Atleti, which is a huge advantage because the man does a lot of coaching and not just arm waving and screaming during games.

    But Arsenal failed to take advantage because we’re not that type of a team to do so.

    I feel for Wenger , I really do, but everything about that performance sums up his entire European career.

    Not taking chances up front and making simple mistakes at the back is, and has always been Wenger teams’ calling card.

    The entire defensive sequence that lead to Griezman goal is a textbook example of a back line’s failure in dealing with a ball over the top.

    From Monreal playing Griezmann on, to his ball watching and leisurely jogging back as if sure Kos would deal with the danger successfully on his own.

    Mustafi doing his part in not hustling down until it was too late too.
    Had they both done what a well drilled back line is supposed to do , there would’ve been enough time for either one to alter the outcome of Griezmann’s goal, even after Kos had already landed up on his back side.

    When I said I preferred Atleti in the semis one of the reasons was an earlier exit meant the smaller the heartbreak.

    Losing to them in a final , in what surely would’ve been the most of Arsenal’s ways , would’ve been just too painful to take.
    And a reminder of the Barca CL final all over again.

    PFO
    “Being excellent for 99% of the game”
    suggests creating many clear cut chances and taking some of them.

    Arsenal failed on both accounts.

    1. hold on, we didn’t create clear cut chances? what is your definition of “clear cut”?
      and we didn’t take “some”? what is your definition of “some”? we took one, didn’t we?
      also, I don’t even accept the premise: being excellent doesn’t necessarily require creating many clear cut chances, if you’re playing one of the (if not the) best defensive teams in Europe who are parking the bus.

      but in any event, I’ll take back the “excellent for 99% of the game”. I’ll settle for: we were very good for the majority of the game. I seriously can’t believe some of the negativity doing the rounds on this website after that game. disappointment at throwing away the win by giving away a bad goal, I get (though we should all be used to it by now). but going forward, we were good, and hardly “unstructured” or “insipid.”

      I know this doesn’t settle anything, but just to show that there were plenty of people watching that game who didn’t think we were as terrible as folks on here suggest:
      http://www.football365.com/news/f365-says-draw-snatched-from-victory-that-felt-like-defeat-arsenal-that
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fq3wcMm0J1o
      https://news.arseblog.com/2018/04/arsenal-1-1-atletico-madrid-by-the-numbers/

      they are all balanced accounts (the last is from Tim, of course), not suggesting we were brilliant, but that we, by and large, played well, put them under considerable pressure, created chance, etc, and certainly that we were far from awful.

      1. In simple terms a clear cut chance is a goals scoring chance where you would punt money on the attacking player to convert and feel good about doing it( until he totally fu#ked it up prompting you saying what the hell was I thinking putting money on this, I can’t believe I just did this , Im never betting again, I am a fu#cking idiot!!!!!!)

        I counted two if Im generous.

        Also , I didn’t say we were bad.
        “Excellent”, however , that’s a level or two above what I saw yesterday against a 10 men side missing key players away from their home fortress.

        1. yes, but I was not primarily addressing you, but the several other posters who said we were awful, or words to that effect. and I duly stepped back from my “excellent” claim, settling for “very good”.

  33. Meh. Can’t figure out why we didn’t use a single sub during the entire match, but still… whatevs.

  34. Barca final, yeah right!
    Had the best D going in, had to play game with 10 men, and still went up 1-0, and got uefalona’d on the last goal which was offside.
    How was that again?

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