Premier League Stats Dump (week 33.5)

Quick post because I’m busy this morning with an early walk.

First, let’s talk about my favorite topic: big chances.

Above I have a chart listing all of the big chances for each team, adjusted for errors and penalties. I need to double-check this data but it’s pretty close right now. This data indicates several things.

First, we already know Arsenal are the most error-prone team in the League. Perhaps Cech is just having a bad season but he alone accounts for 45% of Arsenal’s errors for goals.  But look at the far right column where I have goals conceded minus all big chances. That’s a surprisingly even number across almost all data points. United are the outliers with just 5 goals conceded but on average teams concede about 0.5 goals per game just because of football.

What I mean by that is that teams are going to play well and still they are just going to concede goals sometimes. The opponent will strike the ball perfectly, the strike will go through the legs of three or four defenders, it’s a perfect set piece, direct free kicks, etc. This is the baseline goals that you’re going to allow as a team in a season; about 19. Anything less than that? Gravy. Anything above that? Could be a problem. But you have to approach all matches with a half goal deficit in mind.

That means Big Chances are even more important than before. And limiting those Big Chances, limiting mistakes, and limiting penalties are the key to a successful defensive season. ‘

Stoke are an awful defensive team. For those of us who have been watching Stoke for the last 10 years that’s a pretty funny sight. This was a team that prided itself on defense and it’s going to be funny to see them relegated because of their terrible defense.

Here’s another bunch of data. This time, the important part is “SiPs” or shots in prime. One thing that I’ve noticed is that teams like United, Newcastle, and Burnley all have the highest “overperforming” defenses in the League (they have conceded 20 goals fewer than my xG formula predicts) and they also have the highest “SiP Saves” percentage. All three of those teams have keepers saving shots in prime in the 60% range.

Anyway, I have to walk (don’t run).

See you all tomorrow.

Source: Opta, my database

Qq

26 comments

  1. I love that Bournemouth is listed as “Bonermouth”. Fitting.

    Boy, we have a long way to go to catch City (29), Chelsea (38) and Spurs (33) with regards to big chances allowed. Reinforces my belief that we either a) find a new manager who can organize a team defensively or b) rebuild the defense with a better caliber of players. Adding more attacking players in the off-season would be an absurd luxury.

  2. Cech represents an important element in exposing the folly of belief that any new player/ players can significantly improve Arsenal’s faith while Wenger is still in charge.

    Never mind the 10-15 points he was going to add to Arsenal’s point tally according to some Chelsea players, well, he added none.

    Arsenal went from 75 points the season before Cech, to 71 in his first season, 75 in the second, and around 60 or so this season.

    Cazorla’s stats paint a similar picture , a fantastic player that he was. If we only got Santi back, goes the narrative, we’d be right back in the mix.
    In the mix for a fourth place trophy, maybe.

    In Santi’s last two full, injury free seasons , Arsenal finished where they usually finish points-wise, between 70 and 79 points, regardless who plays.

    1. In Cech’s first season with Arsenal the problem was finishing. Arsenal created the most big chances of any team in the League but literally couldn’t finish. The problems that season were Walcott, Ramsey, and Ozil. They combined for 6/30 big chances (I think).

      The Cazorla problem is different: Cazorla was moved deeper into a midfield role from the front three role he had before Ozil then Alexis arrived. But yes, Cazorla by himself wasn’t the answer. The answer was a midfield duo of Cazorla and Coquelin. Defensively, they were outstanding but offensively we struggled to create at times.

      Anyway, it’s all about balance.

      That’s why Wenger switched to a back three. That’s why he dropped Coquelin. That’s why he gives Ramsey the free attacking role (which leaves gaps in midfield). Wenger keeps looking for ways to magically create that balance. Looking for just the right personnel, just the right fit.

      Interestingly, Guardiola is often criticized for this same thing, but it’s not. PG is able to move players around and get the best out of them and using his system is able to create balance. He does buy players in order to have the very best players available but he’s not moving players around in order to create balance – his players can usually cover for each other. This is why he doesn’t like Aguero. Aguero is a one-trick player and Pep has little use for them.

  3. And to reach the 60 points this season will require some doing.
    With the EL semis against Atleti given priority, Arsenal may find it difficult to win another game.

    But of course if we finish with the lowest point total under Wenger ever, the blame will fall squarely on Arsenal fans and the unfriendly schedule that required the club to play their run in on Easter Sunday, then the Orthodox Easter Sunday and Buda Day, and a week later on the Earth Day this Sunday, when thousands of Arsenal fans will surely opt out of going to the game in favor of planting a tree.
    $hit, staring at a tree for 90 minutes might even be a more attractive option to watching our reserves against the Hummers.

  4. Watched the Burnley v Chelsea game with keen interest, as it involves our nearest rival for sixth place. Pleased to see Chelsea do us a favor, and keep us in the hunt to being the best of the worst teams in England.

    Couple of things: Morata. What a waste. Maybe he comes good next year, or a couple of years, but I must admit that I was wrong last summer to suggest we go for him instead of Lacazette. Also, Giroud. Still love the fellow, and his link-up play was as good as ever. He also tried, and failed, a scorpion kick goal near the end of the game (he missed, and the ball fell to Moses, who lashed in the winner). Finally, Kante. What a player! I can’t help but think he would have been a perfect replacement for Cazorla.

    1. Regarding Morata, Iv’e always thought that there’s something mentally “off” with the kid. Great player,with all the tools needed to be a universal hitman but i do question his mentality and desire quite often and wonder.

  5. So it is done, I didn’t imagine it happening like that. What a relief. Now we can look back at his tenure more fondly I hope and get excited for things to come.

  6. Wow. Was I wrong. Let’s hope the players (and the fans) lift themselves to give Arsene a victorious send-off..

    1. It’s already having an effect, take a look at the comments under the Guardian story, Spurs fans paying unironic tributes.

  7. C’MON ARSENAL!!!!

    I’ve got an aged bottle of bubbly at home (7 years this May to be precise) due to be opened at some point this evening as we finally leave the gates of the great known sailing into the vast seas where every direction leads to somewhere new.

  8. And so it goes. His departure was inevitable given the current run of form and the empty seats at th Ems.

    Sadly, my primary emotion is bitterness.

    I’m bitter at the players he developed and stood by who then deserted him when greener pastures presented themselves. Van Persie, Cesc, Chamberlain. They are entitled to whatever success they can attain, but they will never have a home in our club.

    I remain bitter at the English refs and by extension the FA who allowed us to be kicked out of many a game and our skill players to be crippled. I will rejoice in the quadrennial pleasure of watching pashun and tuffness fall short on the world stage as the Three Lions are humiliated again.

    I am bitter toward the journalists with their thinly disguised hostility toward Arsene and the double standards they employed. I hope our next manager takes a page from Pop and refuses to answer stupid questions on principle, or better, publicly calls them out on it.

    I am most bitter at the ‘fans’ who did their best to hound Wenger out. Particularly the trolls at the Stoke train station and the halfwits of AFTV. The man dedicated the better part of his adult life to Arsenal and they throw bottles and hurl obscenities. They are probably patting themselves on the back right now. It’s one thing to be critical, it’s another to try to humiliate a man who has shown nothing but loyalty to the club and the players.

    I hope the team can rise to the challenge and win the EL for Arsene, but it’s obviously not that simple. I’m saddened that we couldn’t pull it off in 2015. I hope that we can send Arsene off with the respect he deserves.

    One Arsene Wenger.

    1. I share some of your sentiments especially about those fans at Stoke and the FA. In then end though, I am excited (even if a bit nervous) about the future. There is no doubt in my mind that Wenger had lost a little bit of his ruthlessness which he had during his rivalry with SAF in the early years. I remember an interview from 2010 when he mentioned he was trying to suppress his “dark side”. “And what’s that?” asked the interviewer. “It’s the side of me that wants to win at all costs” was Arsene’s reply. It left me wondering why he would want to suppress that. I mean – I get that he wants to win in his own terms but it seemed to me the priority was philosophy over winning. I think that hurt him over the long run.

  9. That piece by Amy Lawrence is really, really great. Make sme appreciate that there’s some genuinely great writers and journalists covering Arsenal, I’m waiting for Phillipe Auclair’s farewell.

  10. So Arsene is going at the end of the season.

    Make no mistake. It was that, or he’d have been removed.

    It’s the right decision. Arsene is a faded coach, who is making the Arsenal team worse, not better. He should have left 4 years ago. Ironically, he could wina . European trophy even through all of that. Let’s hope we do it.

  11. The tributes have been warm, generous and genuine. Gary Neville and Gary Lineker in twitter probably captured the moment best, and Paul Merson suggested that we forget about Emirates money, and name the stadium he built after him. Don’t know if it’s possible to do that, but it’d be a splendid idea.

    And this. https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/arsene-wenger-resigns-leaves-arsenal-next-manager-jonathan-liew-tribute-a8313846.html

  12. I’m very happy that Wenger decided to step down. Not because he’s leaving but because he can get the proper send off he deserves. The rest of the season will be a love-in and he’ll get a standing ovation at Old Trafford, nothing less than he deserves. I could care less about speculating who the next manager will be. The next few weeks should be 100% support for Wenger, the team, no griping, let’s just get this finished on the best note possible.

  13. Wow. An absolutely fantastic decision by Wenger. I am full of admiration, and it means, as I hoped, that he’ll leave on a ‘high’ regardless of results from now on (meaning that he’ll have unconditional support in each and every game). I expect the seats to fill up again…

    1. Hopefully his 2nd last great act (hoping winning the Europa league will be the last). I think the empty stadium seats really got to him and the cynic in me thinks that once again his decision was driven by financial reasons rather than footballing reasons. You can’t invite corporate sponsors to half empty stadiums if you are looking for lucrative long term deals. I think his decision was partly driven by this and the economist in him decided the club would be able to sign better deals if he stepped down and the fans poured in with their support once again. Regardless, it’s a selfless act in a series of selfless acts he has made for the club.

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