As I sped through the newsfeeds this morning, picking up no new word at all on Arsenal, I thought to myself “Gee, another day off from the blog!” And started to get excited about what I might post. I could do a “Season in pictures” post, but thought I might save that for later — after all Wenger keeps saying “judge me at the end of the season” which is exactly what I think I’ll do.
I have a couple other articles I’ve been thinking about; who is our closest rival in the Premier League and an article about my belief that the English Premier League is in a bubble.
The first is an article about how Arsenal are in 5th place and how there was a ton of optimism about potentially overtaking Chelsea for 4th when the Blues got a draw in their last EPL match and promptly fired their coach. But after looking at the schedules, the goal differential, and the amount of points we need to make up in the last 13 games, I’m unsure Arsenal will take 4th place from anyone.
First, I’m ruling out Chelsea as a close rival, Villa’s our closest rivals based on goal differential (yeah, I know it’s not perfect but it’s a good measure of the power of the team) and they are 7 points ahead of Arsenal right now. Basically, given their relative goal differentials and club rosters I see Chelsea punching below their weight and Villa punching above. You can argue with me on that assumption, but as I like to say, you’d be wrong.
So, if Villa is our closest rival then Arsenal need to find a place to pick up 7 points. And, again, if Villa is the rival, then given the relative schedules of the two clubs, the next 7 matches will be decisive: in the next 7 games Villa will play Chelsea, Liverpool, United, and Everton while Arsenal play 7 in a row against teams like Sunderland. Given that Arsenal’s last 6 games are mostly against top four clubs and Villa’s are against the bottom teams, this next 7 is absolutely crucial if Arsenal have any hopes of taking 4th place.
Basically, we need Villa to get draws or losses in each of the four matches against big clubs and for Arsenal to win 7 in a row. Arsenal did do a 7 game streak last year, against similar competition, but given all the injuries to the squad right now I’m not exactly hopeful. The only glimmer of hope is that Theo and Eduardo are both raring to go and, of course, Arshavin has been training with the club and gaining fitness. If there was ever a time for Arshavin to cement himself as a hero at this club it would be now: if he comes in to this team and sparks a win streak that nets us 4th place it would be a legend of Tevez proportions.
Regardless of whether Arshavin becomes our Tevez, that’s how I see the season playing out: we’ve got to take 4th in the next 7 games and then hold it for the last 6. I want to warn you of something though, I’m a bit of a curse. Well, I have two curses actually. The first is that almost every time I buy a player’s shirt, they leave at the end of the year: Vieira, Bergkamp, Henry, and Flamini have all left immediately after I bought their shirt. The only exception to this rule is Cesc. I have decided this year to buy a Walcott away strip, and as you know, his contract negotiations are not progressing as quickly as we’d all like. I’m buying the shirt anyway because I’m not actually a superstitious person. If I was, I’d buy an Eboue strip. The look on the clerk’s face when I order it would almost be worth it alone, much less the idea that I could somehow control transfers by buying a strip.
The other curse is that every time I’ve gone to see Arsenal in person, they win the game I’m at, and then their season promptly falls apart. The first time I went, I watched Charlton get crushed 3-0 and though the team went on to appear in the Champions League final, then needed some foul lasagna to ensure a 4th place finish. In ’07 when I went to see them play Reading, they won a close match 2-1 and then when I got home were unceremoniously dumped out of the Champions League by an Alex powered PSV Eindhoven. And last year was possibly the worst of all… I went to a Monday night match and watched as my boy Senderos scored the opener and my other boy Adebayor put in the finisher in a 2-0 win over Blackburn. When I got home, Arsenal were destroyed by a seal dribbling Man U in the FA Cup and within two weeks had their season torn to shreds by the studs up lunge of Martin Taylor on Eduardo.
So, don’t color me too hopeful that we’ll be in 4th place at the end of the season. Arsenal need a 7 game win streak, they need Villa to lose or draw 4 of their next 7, and they need to hold on in the last 6 matching Villa point for point in all those matches while Villa have the schedule advantage in those final 6.
Basically, Arsenal need to be looking for a 13 match win streak. Throw in the curse of the Flambino and the chances of 4th place are looking pretty dim.
Whelp, looks like I won’t get to the Deloitte report and football’s bubble as I have successfully blogged about something I didn’t think I could make a whole blog about! If you’re interested in the details of the report, download it for yourself and plow through, there’s a lot to read. I might write about it at a later date but not today. I will mention that there’s a nugget in there that most people aren’t talking about; one source of Arsenal’s revenue is television rights (which you all know) but that revenue is dependent upon a team’s place in the table. The top four clubs get a larger share of the television pie and could possibly be another financial hit should Arsenal’s stingy summer and winter spending find us in 5th place. THANK GODS WE HAVE £93m IN RESERVE INSTEAD OF A REAL MIDFIELDER.
Anyway, “Match Preview” of Arsenal v. Cardiff in the morning, President’s Day, see you then. I’m off to run around like a barbarian in tights after I scoff breakfast. ARRRRRRRRR — See you tomorrow!